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Results for “guide to expression of uncertainty in measurement”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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11 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Comprehensive Open-Source R Software For Statistical Metrology Calculations: From Uncertainty Evaluation To Risk Analysis

Whether calibrating equipment or inspecting products on the factory floor, metrology requires many complicated statistical calculations to achieve a full understanding and evaluation of measurement uncertainty and quality. In order to assist its workforce in performing these calculations in a consistent and rigorous way, the Primary Standards Lab at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed a free and open-source software package for computing various metrology calculations from uncertainty propagation to risk analysis. In addition to propagating uncertainty through a measurement model using the well-known Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement or Monte Carlo approaches, evaluating the individual Type A and Type B uncertainty components that go into the measurement model often requires other statistical methods such as analysis of variance or determining uncertainty in a fitted curve. Once the uncertainty in a measurement has been calculated, it is usually evaluated from a risk perspective to ensure the measurement is suitable for making a particular conformance decision. Finally, SNL’s software can perform all these calculations in a single application via an easy-to-use graphical interface, where the different functions are integrated so the results of one calculation can be used as inputs to another calculation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2005

Minimizing Uncertainty in Cryogenic Surface Figure Measurement

A new facility at the Goddard Space Flight Center is designed to measure with unusual accuracy the surface figure of mirrors at cryogenic temperatures down to 12 K. The facility is currently configured for spherical mirrors with a radius of curvature (ROC) of 600 mm, and apertures of about 150 mm or less. The goals of the current experiment were to 1) Obtain the best possible estimate of test mirror surface figure, S(x,y) at 87 K and 20 K; 2) Obtain the best estimate of the cryo-change, Delta (x,y): the change in surface figure between room temperature and the two cryo-temperatures; and 3) Determine the uncertainty of these measurements, using the definitions and guidelines of the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. A silicon mirror was tested, and the cry-change from room temperature to 20K was found to be 3.7 nm rms, with a standard uncertainty of 0.23 nm in the rms statistic. Both the cryo-change figure and the uncertainty are among the lowest such figures yet published. This report describes the facilities, experimental methods, and uncertainty analysis of the measurements.

Blake, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bottom-up and Top-Down Uncertainty Quantification for Measurements

Several recent papers address improved uncertainty quantification (UQ) for measurements used in nuclear safeguards. This paper reviews progress and presents new results for bottom-up (first principles) and top-down (empirical) UQ for safeguards, where the main quantitative measure of uncertainty is the total measurement error standard deviation (SD), which includes both random and systematic error components. The five main UQ topics addressed here include: (1) impact of making data-driven choices in SD estimation; (2) use of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for both bottom-up and top-down UQ; (3) computational calibration; (4) revisions to the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM), and (5) critique of a recently-suggested “Unified Theory of Measurement Errors and Uncertainties.”

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calculating Interval Uncertainties for Calibration Standards That Drift with Time

Calibrated values of many devices exhibit predictable drift over time. To provide an uncertainty statement valid over the entire calibration interval, one must account for drift. In this article, a method of accounting for drift is proposed based on guidance in the Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. An additional uncertainty term is computed using a linear regression of historical measurement data, which is included along with the time-of-test uncertainty. This method is evaluated by analyzing its average out-of-tolerance (OOT) rate using a Monte Carlo simulation, which results in the desired 5% average OOT rate when the total uncertainty is expanded to a 95% confidence interval.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the Uncertainty of Measurement of Traceable Isotope Ratios with Bayesian Statistical Techniques

Analytical techniques such as multicollector—inductively coupled plasma—mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) are routinely employed at SRNL, other National Laboratories, and in academia to determine the precise isotopic composition of diverse natural and anthropogenic samples (e.g., rocks and nuclear materials). Quantifying and reporting uncertainty in such analyses, while regularly performed, have a rigorous statistical foundation. The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement 4 (GUM) outlines conventional techniques used to assess such uncertainty. As the accessibility and speed of statistical computing increase, there is a need to modernize conventional techniques. For example, Supplement 1 to the 3rd to the GUM suggests the use of approximation methods as an updated approach to the GUM.

McLarty, Ellis C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Creating high-precision reference gas standards of 85Kr for groundwater age-dating

Absolute gas counting (AGC) was applied to two gas blends of 85Kr in argon-methane (P10) counting gas to establish a high-precision specific activity (Bq/cm3) reference value for characterizing 85Kr detection efficiency for groundwater age dating measurements. The AGC or length-compensated technique has been utilized by the metrology community for decades and is an accepted method for developing radioactive gas standards. The AGC capability at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) uses a set of nine unequal-length proportional counters with precisely-measured internal volumes, and a gas loading system with high-precision pressure and temperature sensors. A series of AGC measurements were collected at multiple pressures to determine the inverse pressure relationship (1/P) for 85Kr and define a wall-effect correction that accounts for events decaying into the detector wall and not depositing sufficient energy in the gas to be detected. In addition to the wall-effect, two additional corrections were evaluated and are discussed in detail. Specifically, the threshold effect which accounts for events deposited below the analysis threshold and a detection efficiency as a function of detector volume effect that was observed during analysis. A robust uncertainty model was developed using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM) approach. The combination of carefully scrutinized correction factors, precise measurements of pressure, temperature and detector volume, and robust counting statistics resulted in the determination of high-precision specific activity values with 0.50% or less total combined uncertainty for two Kr-in-P10 reference gas standards (KP10) that will enable new groundwater age-dating measurements at PNNL.

Kr-85↗
DOE OSTI2021

Update on the High Precision Titration Method for Uranium Assay Supported by NBL Program Office

The NBL Program Office (NBL PO) has coordinated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to implement the High Precision Titration (HPT) method for uranium assay measurements. The measurement method has been successfully developed and qualified, therefore ORNL has progressed to performing analyzes critical to the mission of the NBL PO. The HPT method is vital to producing the next generation of certified reference materials for uranium assay and isotopic abundance. The work described here focused on establishing traceability of the method to the NIST SRM 136 potassium dichromate series, and focused on investigating small differences between SRM 136e and 136f. The NBL PO evaluated the history of all of its primary uranium reference materials, including CRM 112A natural uranium metal, and worked with NIST in investigating the small differences in the dichromate SRM’s. ORNL performed comparative experiments on SRM 136e and 136f using CRM 112A. The results of the experiment will be presented here, along with NBL PO’s plans to re-evaluate the CRM 112A certified uncertainty to comply with JCGM 100, “Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement.”

Rogers, Kayron↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty analysis of steady-state measurements with a hot-filament type calorimetric emissometer

Calorimetric emissometers measure total hemispherical emissivity by measuring the heat transferred from a heated sample to its surroundings under a vacuum. The accuracy of emissometers standardized by the ASTM C835-06 are well understood. This work uses the Guide to the Evaluation of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) for the propagation uncertainties for an ASTM compliant emissometer. The GUM method was able to develop a measurement model and expressions to determine the uncertainty for other emissometers of this type. Data on ‘as-received’ Hastelloy X was used to develop a detailed uncertainty analysis of the emissivity measurement. Data on ‘as-received’ SS 347 and sandblasted A387 Gr. 91 and previous data by the group on A508/A533B were used to determine uncertainty over the ranges 0.16 to 0.81. For all samples, relative uncertainties in emissivities varied from 0.77% to 2.5% when using a fluxgate magnetometer sensor (FMS) to measure the DC heating current. Data on Hastelloy X using a Hall-effect sensor for DC current and low alloy steel showed the DC current and voltage across the test section to be dominate sources of uncertainty. When these sources were reduced, the specimen temperature and the surface area of the test sections were main sources of uncertainty in the emissivity, especially at higher temperatures. As thermal expansion of the surface was considered in the calculations, correlation between specimen temperature and surface area was examined. It was found to be a small contribution to emissivity's uncertainty despite the differences in linear CTE and its uncertainty for the materials analyzed in this study. For low temperatures, the chamber temperature can be a significant source of uncertainty if not sufficiently cooled. The GUM was also briefly compared to uncertainty from the 2nd and 3rd expansions of the Taylor series. We found that the results were the same when rounding to two significant figures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Variance and bias confidence criteria for ERA modal parameter identification

For the ERA system identification algorithm, perturbation methods are used to develop expressions for variance and bias of the identified modal parameters. Based on the statistics of the measurement noise, the variance results serve as confidence criteria by indicating how likely the true parameters are to lie within any chosen interval about their identified values. This replaces the use of expensive and time-consuming Monte Carlo computer runs to obtain similar information. The bias estimates help guide the ERA user in his choice of which data points to use and how much data to use in order to obtain the best results, performing the trade-off between the bias and scatter. Also, when the uncertainty in the bias is sufficiently small, the bias information can be used to correct the ERA results. In addition, expressions for the variance and bias of the singular values serve as tools to help the ERA user decide the proper modal order.

Longman, Richard W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Measurement of the Anomalous Muon Spin Precession Frequency in the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g-2$ Experiment operated at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL, or Fermilab) between 2018 and 2023 to produce the world's most precise measurement of the muon's \textit{anomalous magnetic moment}, $a_\mu = \frac{g_\mu - 2}{2}$, which expresses the relative deviation in the muon's $g$-factor from a baseline theoretical expectation that $g_\mu = 2$. In the Standard Model of particle physics, $g_\mu > 2$ and hence $a_\mu > 0$ by a calculable amount that depends on all possible interactions between the muon and all other fundamental particles, including any potentially undiscovered interactions beyond the Standard Model. For this reason, measurements of the electron anomaly $a_e$ and later the muon anomaly $a_\mu$ have helped guide the development of the Standard Model since the inception of quantum field theory, and the measured value of $a_\mu$ provides a valuable constraint for new hypotheses that extend the Standard Model. As of 2006, the leading measurement and Standard Model prediction for $a_\mu$ exhibited tension at the level of about three standard deviations, motivating an improved measurement at Fermilab that could test the tension more precisely. The experiment functions by storing a polarized beam of $\mu^+$ in a uniform magnetic field, which simultaneously induces circular motion and spin precession. As the stored muons undergo the Michel decay $\mu^+ \to e^+ + \nu_e + \bar{\nu}_\mu$, mediated by the parity-violating weak interaction, the rest-frame $e^+$ emission direction is correlated with the parent $\mu^+$ spin orientation. Boosting into the laboratory frame encodes this correlation in the decay $e^+$ energy, which is higher when the emission (i.e. $\mu^+$ spin direction) is aligned with the $\mu^+$ momentum, and lower when opposite. Detectors then count the rate of high-energy decay $e^+$, which modulates at the difference between the $\mu^+$ revolution and spin precession frequencies. This observed frequency, called the \textit{anomalous spin precession frequency} $\omega_a$, is directly proportional to $a_\mu$. The extraction of $\omega_a$ proceeds by fitting the time spectrum of detected $e^+$, which requires precise modeling of the $\omega_a$ oscillation as well as any perturbations from beam dynamics and detector acceptance. Using the $\omega_a$ analysis presented in this work, based on Runs 4 -- 6 of the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab, we find that $a_\mu = 0.001\,165\,920\,738(162)$ with a relative uncertainty of 139 parts per billion.

Barrett, Tyler [Cornell U.]↗