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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Effects of Surface Fossil Magnetic Fields on Massive Star Evolution: IV. Grids of Models at Solar, LMC, and SMC Metallicities

Magnetic fields can drastically change predictions of evolutionary models of massive stars via mass-loss quenching, magnetic braking, and efficient angular momentum transport, which we aim to quantify in this work. We use the MESA software instrument to compute an e xtensiv e main-sequence grid of stellar structure and evolution models, as well as isochrones, accounting for the effects attributed to a surface fossil magnetic field. The grid is densely populated in initial mass (3–60 M ), surface equatorial magnetic field strength (0–50 kG), and metallicity (representative of the Solar neighbourhood and the Magellanic Clouds). We use two magnetic braking and two chemical mixing schemes and compare the model predictions for slowly rotating, nitrogen- enriched (‘Group 2’) stars with observations in the Large Magellanic Cloud. We quantify a range of initial field strengths that allow for producing Group 2 stars and find that typical values (up to a few kG) lead to solutions. Between the subgrids, we find notable departures in surface abundances and evolutionary paths. In our magnetic models, chemical mixing is al w ays less efficient compared to non-magnetic models due to the rapid spin-down. We identify that quasi-chemically homogeneous main sequence evolution by efficient mixing could be prevented by fossil magnetic fields. We recommend comparing this grid of evolutionary models with spectropolarimetric and spectroscopic observations with the goals of (i) revisiting the derived stellar parameters of known magnetic stars, and (ii) observationally constraining the uncertain magnetic braking and chemical mixing schemes.

stars: abundances↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Real-Time MODIS Vegetation Composite for Land Surface Models and Short-Term Forecasting

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is producing real-time, 1- km resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) gridded composites over a Continental U.S. domain. These composites are updated daily based on swath data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the polar orbiting NASA Aqua and Terra satellites, with a product time lag of about one day. A simple time-weighting algorithm is applied to the NDVI swath data that queries the previous 20 days of data to ensure a continuous grid of data populated at all pixels. The daily composites exhibited good continuity both spatially and temporally during June and July 2010. The composites also nicely depicted high greenness anomalies that resulted from significant rainfall over southwestern Texas, Mexico, and New Mexico during July due to early-season tropical cyclone activity. The SPoRT Center is in the process of computing greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the MODIS NDVI data at the same spatial and temporal resolution for use in the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The new daily GVF dataset would replace the monthly climatological GVF database (based on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [AVHRR] observations from 1992-93) currently available to the Noah land surface model (LSM) in both LIS and the public version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The much higher spatial resolution (1 km versus 0.15 degree) and daily updates based on real-time satellite observations have the capability to greatly improve the simulation of the surface energy budget in the Noah LSM within LIS and WRF. Once code is developed in LIS to incorporate the daily updated GVFs, the SPoRT Center will conduct simulation sensitivity experiments to quantify the impacts and improvements realized by the MODIS real-time GVF data. This presentation will describe the methodology used to develop the 1-km MODIS NDVI composites and show sample output from summer 2010, compare the MODIS GVF data to the AVHRR monthly climatology, and illustrate the sensitivity of the Noah LSM within LIS and/or the coupled LIS/WRF system to the new MODIS GVF dataset.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Evidence for a Significant Intermediate-Age Population in the M31 Halo from Main Sequence Photometry

We present a color-magnitude diagram (CMD) for a minor-axis field in the halo of the Andromeda galaxy (M3l), 51 arcmin (11 kpc) from the nucleus. These observations, taken with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) on the Hubble Space Telescope, are the deepest optical images yet obtained, attaining 50% completeness at m(sub v) = 30.7 mag. The CMD, constructed from approx. 3 x 10(exp 5) stars, reaches more than 1.5 mag fainter than the old main-sequence turnoff. Our analysis is based on direct comparisons to ACS observations of four globular clusters through the same filters, as well as chi square fitting to a finely-spaced grid of calibrated stellar-population models. We find that the M31 halo contains a major (approx. 30% by mass) intermediate-age (6-8 Gyr) metal-rich ([Fe/H] greater than -0.5) population, as well as a significant globular-cluster age (11-13.5 Gyr) metal-poor population. These findings support the idea that galaxy mergers played an important role in the formation of the M31 halo.

Brown, Thomas M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The orbit and stellar masses of the archetype colliding-wind binary WR 140

We present updated orbital elements for the Wolf–Rayet (WR) binary WR 140 (HD 193793; WC7pd + O5.5fc). The new orbital elements were derived using previously published measurements along with 160 new radial velocity measurements across the 2016 periastron passage of WR 140. Additionally, four new measurements of the orbital astrometry were collected with the CHARA Array. With these measurements, we derive stellar masses of M(WR)=10.31±0.45Mꙩ and M(O)=29.27±1.14Mꙩ⁠. We also include a discussion of the evolutionary history of this system from the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis model grid to show that this WR star likely formed primarily through mass-loss in the stellar winds, with only a moderate amount of mass lost or transferred through binary interactions.

Joshua D. Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1995

Synthetic properties of starburst galaxies

We present the results of an extensive grid of evolutionary synthesis models for populations of massive stars. The parameter space has been chosen to correspond to conditions typically found in objects like giant H II regions, H II galaxies, blue compact dwarf galaxies, nuclear starbursts, and infrared luminous starburst galaxies. The models are based on the most up-to-date input physics for the theory of stellar atmospheres, stellar winds, and stellar evolution. A population of massive stars is not only important in terms of its output of radiation but also via its deposition of mechanical energy. The output of radiative and mechanical luminosity is compared at various starburst epochs. In a supernova dominated instantaneous starburst, the mechanical luminosity can be as large as almost 10% of the total radiative luminosity. This occurs when most massive O stars have disappeared, and the synthetic spectrum in the optical and near-ultraviolet is dominated by B and A stars. During this epoch, the output of ionizing radiation below 912 A becomes very small, as indicated by a very large Lyman discontinuity and a very small ratio of ionizing over mechanical luminosity. We discuss the relevance of these results for the interpretation of starburst galaxies, active galactic nuclei, and the energetics of the interstellar medium.

Leitherer, Claus↗
NASA NTRS2010

An High Resolution Near-Earth Objects Population Enabling Next-Generation Search Strategies

Over the past decade, the dedicated search for kilometer-size near-Earth objects (NEOs), potentially hazardous objects (PHOs), and potential Earth impactors has led to a boost in the rate of discoveries of these objects. The catalog of known NEOs is the fundamental ingredient used to develop a model for the NEOs population, either by assessing and correcting for the observational bias (Jedicke et al., 2002), or by evaluating the migration rates from the NEOs source regions (Bottke et al., 2002). The modeled NEOs population is a necessary tool used to track the progress in the search of large NEOs (Jedicke et al., 2003) and to try to predict the distribution of the ones still undiscovered, as well as to study the sky distribution of potential Earth impactors (Chesley & Spahr, 2004). We present a method to model the NEOs population in all six orbital elements, on a finely grained grid, allowing us the design and test of targeted and optimized search strategies. This method relies on the observational data routinely reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) and by other active NEO surveys over the past decade, to determine on a nightly basis the efficiency in detecting moving objects as a function of observable quantities including apparent magnitude, rate of motion, airmass, and galactic latitude. The cumulative detection probability is then be computed for objects within a small range in orbital elements and absolute magnitude, and the comparison with the number of know NEOs within the same range allows us to model the population. When propagated to the present epoch and projected on the sky plane, this provides the distribution of the missing large NEOs, PHOs, and potential impactors.

Tricaico, Pasquale↗
NASA NTRS2003

An Aerodynamic Analysis of a Spinning Missile with Dithering Canards

A generic spinning missile with dithering canards is used to demonstrate the utility of an overset structured grid approach for simulating the aerodynamics of rolling airframe missile systems. The approach is used to generate a modest aerodynamic database for the generic missile. The database is populated with solutions to the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. It is used to evaluate grid resolution requirements for accurate prediction of instantaneous missile loads and the relative aerodynamic significance of angle-of-attack, canard pitching sequence, viscous effects, and roll-rate effects. A novel analytical method for inter- and extrapolation of database results is also given.

Meakin, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Large-Diameter Visible and Buried Impact Basins on Mars: Implications for Age of the Highlands and (Buried) Lowlands and Turn-Off of the Global Magnetic Field

The global populations of visible and buried impact basins greater than 200 km diameter revealed by high resolution gridded MOLA indicate: (a) a small (approximately 10) number of very large basins (D=1300-3000km), most of which have remained visible over martian history; (b) a much larger population of smaller basins (D=200-800 km) with many more buried than visible (on images); (c) a depletion of visible basins at intermediate diameters which may be a signature of some global-scale event (formation of the lowlands? origin of Tharsis?); and (d) a crater retention age for the buried lowlands greater than that of the visible highlands but less than that of the total (visible + buried) highlands. Crustal magnetic anomalies are generally not present in the interiors of the largest basins with two exceptions: these two (which appear to be the oldest) may predate the demise of the global magnetic field.

Frey, H. V.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Large-Diameter Visible and Buried Impact Basins on Mars: Implications for age of the Highlands and (Buried) Lowlands and Turn-off of the Global Magnetic Field

The global populations of visible and buried impact basins less than 200 km diameter revealed by high resolution gridded MOLA indicate: (a) a small (approx. 10) number of very large basins (D=1300-3000km), most of which have remained visible over martian history; (b) a much larger population of smaller basins (D=200-800 km) with many more buried than visible (on images); (c) a depletion of visible basins at intermediate diameters which may be a signature of some global-scale event (formation of the lowlands? origin of Tharsis?); and (d) a crater retention age for the buried lowlands greater than that of the visible highlands but less than that of the total (visible + buried) highlands. Crustal magnetic anomalies are generally not present in the interiors of the largest basins with two exceptions: these two (which appear to be the oldest) may predate the demise of the global magnetic field.

Frey, Herbert V.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluating Precipitation Features and Rainfall Characteristics in a Multi‐Scale Modeling Framework

Cloud and precipitation systems are simulated with a multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) and compared over the Tropics and Subtropics against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Radar‐defined Precipitation Features (RPFs) product. A methodology, in close analogy to the TRMM RPFs, is developed to produce simulated precipitation features (PFs) from the output of the embedded two‐dimensional (2D) cloud‐resolving models (CRMs) within an MMF. Despite the limitations of 2D CRMs, the simulated population distribution, horizontal and vertical structure of PFs, and the geographical location and local rainfall contribution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are in good agreement with the TRMM observations. However, some model discrepancies are found and can be identified and quantified within the PF distributions. Using model biases in relative population and rainfall contributions, PFs can be characterized into four size categories: small, medium to large, very large, and extremely large. Four different major mechanisms might account for the model biases in each different category: (1) the two‐dimensionality of the CRMs, (2) a positive convection‐wind‐evaporation feedback loop, (3) an artificial dynamic constraint in a bounded CRM domain with cyclic boundaries, and (4) the limited CRM domain size. The second and fourth mechanisms tend to contribute to the excessive tropical precipitation biases commonly found in most MMFs, whereas the other mechanisms reduce rainfall contributions from small and very large PFs. MMF sensitivity experiments with various CRM domain sizes and grid spacings showed that larger domains (higher resolutions) tend to shift PF populations toward larger (smaller) sizes.

Jiun-Dar Chern↗
NASA NTRS2010

Complex Spatial Structure in a Population of Didymopanax pittieri, A Tree of Wind-Exposed Lower Montane Rain Forest

Didymopanax pittieri is a common shade-intolerant tree colonizing treefall gaps in the elfin forests on windswept ridgecrests in the lower montane rain forests of the Cordillera de Tilarain, Costa Rica. All D. pittieri taller than > 0.5 m in a 5.2-ha elfin forested portion of a gridded study watershed in the Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve were located, mapped, and measured. This local population of D. pittieri is spatially inhomogeneous, in that density increases with increasing wind exposure; D. pittieri are more abundant near ridge crests than lower on windward slopes. The important and ubiquitous phenomenon of spatial inhomogeneity in population density is addressed and corrected for in spatial analyses by the application of the inhomogeneous version of Ripley's K. The spatial patterns of four size classes of D. pittieri (<5 cm dbh, 5-10 cm dbh, 10-20 cm dbh, and> 20 cm dbh) were investigated. Within the large-scale trend in density driven by wind exposure, D. pittieri saplings are clumped at the scale of treefall gaps and at the scale of patches of aggregated gaps. D. pittieri 5-10 cm dbh are randomly distributed, apparently due to competitive thinning of sapling clumps during the early stages of gap-phase regeneration. D. pittieri larger than 10 cm dbh are overdispersed at a scale larger than that of patches of gaps. Natural disturbance can influence the distribution of shade intolerant tree populations at several different spatial scales, and can have discordant effects at different life history stages.

Lawton, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Modeling NO2 Concentrations Driven by Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Using In-Situ Measurements Over China

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slopeD0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slopeD1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40% higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0% on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15% in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

NO2 modelling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Pheno-Evo Model: Evolution of Microbial Phenotypic Diversity in 2D Space

Biologists appreciate microbes for their simplicity and predictability: we assume that a population of genetically identical cells in a uniform environment will all behave the same way. While this assumption is often useful, it is also often wrong. Not only might microbes in a clonal population act differently from one another, the differences may be categorical (growing v. non-growing; toxin-sensitive v. tolerant), and this diversity might be an evolved trait conferring increased fitness on the population. How does such phenotypic heterogeneity evolve? And how does a population find the optimal distribution of phenotypes for a given environment? Efforts at modeling microbial phenotypic heterogeneity often focus on populations with two discrete phenotypic types; phenotypes in continuous distributions remain poorly explored. To address this gap and to explore the role of spatial relationships, we use agent-based modeling to simulate a phenotypically diverse population of microbial cells evolving in the presence of periodic toxic stress. Cells on patches in a 2D grid may degrade toxin, suffer damage from toxin, switch phenotype, and reproduce. An individual's phenotype its toxin degradation rate-- for which there is a tradeoff with reproduction-- and the genotype encodes the distribution of phenotypic values in the population. The rate of toxin diffusion determines how individuals influence their neighbors' environments. We examine the effects of toxin concentration, diffusion rate, and environmental predictability on the survival success of populations with different phenotype distributions, and populations' evolutionary trajectories when phenotype distribution is allowed to evolve. We conduct all simulations on the platform NetLogo, which provides a friendly interface allowing users of any experience level to tweak parameters and run their own simulations. We have also created custom tools in R for analyzing and visualizing the results of multiple runs.

microbial evolution↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spaceflight Operations Services Grid (SOSG)

In an effort to adapt existing space flight operations services to new emerging Grid technologies we are developing a Grid-based prototype space flight operations Grid. This prototype is based on the operational services being provided to the International Space Station's Payload operations located at the Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. The prototype services will be Grid or Web enabled and provided to four user communities through portal technology. Users will have the opportunity to assess the value and feasibility of Grid technologies to their specific areas or disciplines. In this presentation descriptions of the prototype development, User-based services, Grid-based services and status of the project will be presented. Expected benefits, findings and observations (if any) to date will also be discussed. The focus of the presentation will be on the project in general, status to date and future plans. The End-use services to be included in the prototype are voice, video, telemetry, commanding, collaboration tools and visualization among others. Security is addressed throughout the project and is being designed into the Grid technologies and standards development. The project is divided into three phases. Phase One establishes the baseline User-based services required for space flight operations listed above. Phase Two involves applying Gridlweb technologies to the User-based services and development of portals for access by users. Phase Three will allow NASA and end users to evaluate the services and determine the future of the technology as applied to space flight operational services. Although, Phase One, which includes the development of the quasi-operational User-based services of the prototype, development will be completed by March 2004, the application of Grid technologies to these services will have just begun. We will provide status of the Grid technologies to the individual User-based services. This effort will result in an extensible environment that incorporates existing and new spaceflight services into a standards-based framework providing current and future NASA programs with cost savings and new and evolvable methods to conduct science. This project will demonstrate how the use of new programming paradigms such as web and grid services can provide three significant benefits to the cost-effective delivery of spaceflight services. They will enable applications to operate more efficiently by being able to utilize pooled resources. They will also permit the reuse of common services to rapidly construct new and more powerful applications. Finally they will permit easy and secure access to services via a combination of grid and portal technology by a distributed user community consisting of NASA operations centers, scientists, the educational community and even the general population as outreach. The approach will be to deploy existing mission support applications such as the Telescience Resource Kit (TReK) and new applications under development, such as the Grid Video Distribution System (GViDS), together with existing grid applications and services such as high-performance computing and visualization services provided by NASA s Information Power Grid (IPG) in the MSFC s Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) HOSC Annex. Once the initial applications have been moved to the grid, a process will begin to apply the new programming paradigms to integrate them where possible. For example, with GViDS, instead of viewing the Distribution service as an application that must run on a single node, the new approach is to build it such that it can be dispatched across a pool of resources in response to dynamic loads. To make this a reality, reusable services will be critical, such as a brokering service to locate appropriate resource within the pool. This brokering service can then be used by other applications such as the TReK. To expand further, if the GViDS application is constructed using a services-based mel, then other applications such as the Video Auditorium can then use GViDS as a service to easily incorporate these video streams into a collaborative conference. Finally, as these applications are re-factored into this new services-based paradigm, the construction of portals to integrate them will be a simple process. As a result, portals can be tailored to meet the requirements of specific user communities.

Bradford, Robert N.↗