Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems (ProGRESS): An Open-Source Tool for Assessing Reliability of the Electric Power Grid
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Bera, Atri↗
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Maintaining Grid Reliability: Lessons From Renewable Integration Studies
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other organizations have sponsored numerous research studies over the last two decades to examine the effect of increased wind and solar deployment on grid reliability, including a number of studies that examine grids deriving more than 50% of annual energy from wind and solar. In this report, we discuss key findings from both the research body of knowledge and real-world practice related to grid reliability, and we demonstrate how to plan for and achieve continued reliability in the future as wind and solar deployment increase.
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Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems
SAND2025-12025O The Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems (ProGRESS) software tool is an open-source tool for assessing the resource adequacy of the evolving electric power grid integrated with energy storage systems (ESS). This tool uses a simulation engine to create diverse scenarios that test the limits of the modern power grid consisting of a high-volume ESS and variable energy resources (VER). Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Nguyen, Tu↗
Using Flexible Load Control in Residential Buildings to Support Grid Reliability
An overview of using flexible load control in residential buildings to support grid reliability, presented at the IEEE PES T&D Conference and Exposition in May 2024.
aggregator↗
Impact of Nuclear Power Plant Energy Storage on Grid Reliability and Generation Costs with Variable Power Generation
This report examines the impact of combining integrated energy systems (IES), specifically hydrogen-based energy-storage systems, with nuclear power plants (NPPs) on grid reliability and generation flexibility in scenarios with substantial variable-power generation from solar energy. The analysis focuses on the challenges and solutions associated with high-levels of solar energy penetration, highlighting the role of advanced energy-storage solutions and flexible-generation technologies in enhancing grid stability and reliability.
29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling
Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.
power system faults↗
GridCoPilot for Thermal Events: An LLM-Based Platform for Power Grid Reliability Analysis
Large Language Models show promise for translating natural language into database queries, but deploying such systems in safety-critical domains requires high reliability. We present an application of GridCoPilot to thermal event analysis (heatwaves and coldwaves) that affect power grid reliability. Our approach uses a LangChain SQL Agent to translate natural language queries into auditable SQL statements, with deterministic visualization routines that parse the structured query results. We introduce structural framing as a design principle, we integrate a NERC-region-level event library with county-level meteorology and decompose the combined data into three relational tables (event metadata, county-level event details, and a county-to-NERC subregion mapping), using prompt-guided joins to direct the model toward correct multi-table queries. For two core analytical patterns (identifying worst events by region and by region-year), the system achieved 100% SQL accuracy across all 16 NERC subregions and both event types (64 queries total). These results validate the approach for target use cases, though performance on diverse natural language formulations requires further investigation. We discuss design trade-offs, failure modes including JSON output truncation, and pathways for extending this approach to other hazard domains.
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Hydropower’s Contributions to Grid Reliability and Resilience
This is the final report from the project. The report presents results from data and simulation based analyses of hydropower resources' contributions to grid reliability and resilience.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Harnessing distributed GPU computing for generalizable graph convolutional networks in power grid reliability assessments
Although machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for rapidly assessing grid contingencies, prior studies have largely considered a static grid topology in their analyses. This limits their application, since they need to be re-trained for every new topology. Here, this paper explores the development of generalizable graph convolutional network (GCN) models by pre-training them across a range of grid topologies and contingency types. We found that a GCN model with auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) layers with a line graph representation of the grid offered the best predictive performance in predicting voltage magnitudes (VM) and voltage angles (VA). We introduced the concept of phantom nodes to consider disparate grid topologies with a varying number of nodes and lines. For pre-training the GCN ARMA model across a variety of topologies, distributed graphics processing unit (GPU) computing afforded us significant training scalability. The predictive performance of this model on grid topologies that were part of the training data is substantially better than the direct current (DC) approximation. Although direct application of the pre-trained model to topologies that are not part of the grid is not particularly satisfactory, fine-tuning with small amounts of data from a specific topology of interest significantly improves predictive performance. In general, this paper highlights the feasibility of training large-scale GNN models to assess the reliability of power grids by considering a wide variety of grid topologies and contingency types. With the advent of foundational models in ML and the exponential increase in GPU computing clusters, generalizable ML models will significantly enhance how utilities manage power systems and make decisions in real-time or near-real-time.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate
Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.
Capacity Expansion Model↗
What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?
Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.
Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
Data Center Power Systems: Architectures, Impact on Grid Reliability, Modeling Considerations, and Megawatt-Scale Hardware Testing [Slides]
This slide deck describes typical power systems of large datacenters along with reliability problems to bulk power systems from large-scale integration of datacenters. The slide deck covers the architecture of datacenter power systems, different power electronic converters used inside datacenters, their operation modes, and R&Dopportunities in maintaining grid stability.
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Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth
The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Electric Grid Reliability in an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty: A Review of Advances in Electric Sector Resource Adequacy Assessment and Planning
Recent changes to the principal causes of energy shortage events on the electric grid have necessitated are thinking of paradigms for resource adequacy (RA) assessment and the related topic of procurement of a reliable portfolio. Prior studies have laid out elements of a modern paradigm for these planning activities, but there does not exist a comprehensive overview of the topic spanning academic and gray literature, and the relationship of these suggested paradigms to methods used in industry has also not been surveyed. In this paper we review recent literature establishing best practices for RA assessment and reliable portfolio procurement, and survey current practices used in industry in relation to these best practices. We establish seven key best practices for RA assessment, cover a modern methodology for capacity accreditation, and find that industry practices are not far behind the identified best practices, though some key gaps remain. We also present a suggested agenda for both academic research on the topic and opportunities for advancement in the industry.
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Explained: Fundamentals of Power Grid Reliability and Clean Electricity
Maintaining reliability of the bulk power system, which supplies and transmits electricity, is a critical priority for electric grid planners, operators, and regulators. As we move toward a cleaner electricity system with more technologies like wind, solar, and battery storage, the way in which we plan for and achieve reliability will change. This fact sheet provides additional technical background to the topics covered in three other reliability explainers on how we measure, enforce, and plan for reliable systems with more clean electricity.
POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Grid Reliability Statistics [SWR-25-45]
This codebase houses a suite of statistical and descriptive analyses of NERC GADS data of interest to grid modelers and planners. This repository is envisioned to house a collection of statistical and descriptive summaries of NERC GADS data, particularly summaries that on their own might be insufficient to warrant publication. In addition, it is intended to disseminate results rather than to enable reproduction as GADS is non-public.
Murphy, Sinnott [National Renewable Energy Laborat↗
Low-Cost, Easy-To-Integrate and Reliable Grid Energy Storage System with 2 nd Life Lithium Batteries
Batteries retired from electric vehicles have the potential to extend their service as low-cost stationary energy storage systems. However, disperse battery state of health (SOH) and nonuniform battery characters often lead to compromised battery performance and reliability, which greatly hinder their adoption. A Heterogenous Unifying Battery (HUB) system is proposed to stage 2 nd life battery bricks for a period, and enable them to attain improved SOH uniformity, performance, and reliability before being sold for 2 nd life applications, while simultaneously providing grid services. It may offer a technically and economically advantageous solution for the broad utilization of 2 nd use batteries. The goal of this project was to develop the hardware and software that enables the key functions of the HUB system. The first achievement of the project was the development of a 1kW scale proof-of-concept (POC) system, which comprises (i) a modular plug-n-play DC-DC power converter matrix with isolated series output connections to achieve fully independent control of energy flow to each of the connected battery units at low voltage; (ii) enhanced model based control that drives each batteries’ SOH towards uniformity while collectively providing grid energy storage services; and (iii) comprehensive procedures to perform battery diagnostics and prognostics. The second achievement was the development of a 100kW scale HUB system and demonstrated its performance of re-establishing battery SOH uniformity through a period of battery cycling operation. The final HUB system incorporates six DC-DC power converter matrices paired with six battery bricks. Hot swapping of a single battery brick while maintaining consistent system power was demonstrated and system operation was validated to be capable of implementing the approved grid duty cycle and of balancing and conditioning the battery bricks. Through the course of the project, the team optimized the building-block design, form-factors, and adjusted life balancing control. An up-sized 250kW Scale was developed and deployed in October 2022 with pack-level battery form factors, see photo in Figure 1 The third achievement of the project was to perform a techno-economic analysis in order to better understand the cost and revenue potentials in this new “recondition-then-resell" value proposition. The final TEA quantified the economics of new Li-ion batteries as well as second-life batteries processed via reconditioning and traditional binning. Results showed the reconditioned second-life batteries in this project to be economically favorable and viable in grid energy storage markets. The TEA results were published in the Applied Energy journal. The fourth achievement of the project was to deliver a tech-to-market plan for the HUB system that includes funding, IP, and manufacturing strategies. The final T2M plan outlines a business strategy in which the HUB provides a B2B service to EV companies as an alternative to battery recycling that can prepare batteries for 2nd life applications. A company named Smartville Inc. was founded to carry on the commercialization, funding, and technical IP licensing activities of the OPEN project.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Operationalizing Synchrophasors for Enhanced Grid Reliability and Asset Utilization
The report discusses the development of production-grade synchrophasor software applications. The objective is to improve system reliability and asset utilization for offline as well as real-time considerations, as per the Department of Energy (DOE) guidelines specified by Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) DE-FOA-0001492. On the one hand, we have developed grid management applications on how to transform synchrophasor-based monitoring into operator guidance, and commercial grade tools addressing industry needs such as NERC Reliability Standards (MOD 26, MOD 27 and MOD 33). On the other hand, with the wide industrial adoption in mind, the developed applications have been fully discussed with utility partners and installed in the utility partners site including 6 field tests. The Model Validation and Calibration software module has been integrated into GE’s PhasorAnalyticsTM. The first commercial contract has been signed even before the close date of this project. The Angle-based Grid Management (AGM), Fast Voltage Security Assessment (FastVSA), Enhanced Islanding Monitoring(EIM) and Enhanced Disturbance Management (EDM) have been integrated into GE’s Grid Stability Assessment line of applications in e-terra Suite of EMS product.
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