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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Efficient Parallel Discrete Event Simulation on Cloud/Virtual Machine Platforms

Cloud and Virtual machine (VM) technologies present new challenges with respect to performance and monetary cost in executing parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) applications. Due to the introduction of overall cost as a metric, the traditional use of the highest-end computing configuration is no longer the most obvious choice. Moreover, the unique runtime dynamics and configuration choices of Cloud and VM platforms introduce new design considerations and runtime characteristics specific to PDES over Cloud/VMs. Here, an empirical study is presented to guide an understanding of the dynamics, trends, and trade-offs in executing PDES on Cloud/VM platforms. Performance and cost measures obtained from multiple PDES applications executed on the Amazon EC2 Cloud and on a high-end VM host machine reveal new, counterintuitive VM--PDES dynamics and guidelines. One of the critical aspects uncovered is the fundamental mismatch in hypervisor scheduler policies designed for general cloud workloads versus the virtual time ordering needed for PDES workloads. This insight is supported by experimental data revealing the gross deterioration in PDES performance traceable to VM scheduling policy. To overcome this fundamental problem, the design and implementation of a new deadlock-free scheduler algorithm are presented, optimized specifically for PDES applications on VMs. The scalability of our scheduler has been tested up to 128 VMs multiplexed on 32 cores, showing significant improvement in the runtime relative to the default Cloud/VM scheduler. The observations, algorithmic design, and results are timely for emerging cloud/VM-based installations, highlighting the need for PDES-specific support in high performance discrete event simulations on Cloud/VM platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Global Real-Time Superlab: Enabling High Penetration of Power Electronics in the Electric Grid

The Global Real-Time Superlaboratory (Global RT Superlab) represents a vendor-neutral distributed platform based on the virtual interconnection of digital real-time simulators (DRTSs) and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) setups hosted at eight geographically distributed laboratories in the United States and Europe (Figure 1). This article describes the efforts toward the realization of this largescale virtual infrastructure and explains a demonstration of the multilab setup for simulation and testing of next-generation global power grids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preface to the Proceedings of the 23rd Topical Conference on High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics

Measurements of phenomena advance our understanding of the physical universe. As our understanding grows, more precise measurements are required, as are measurements of new quantities. Diagnosis of a plasma requires developing new instruments, also called diagnostics, as well as new ways to analyze, interpret, synthesize, and correlate their measurements. Further, as computing power increases and multi-physics codes improve their accuracy, more precise measurements are needed to guide future code developments and to validate predictions of these simulation codes. The Topical Conference on High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics is focused on presenting and documenting the most recent advances in these instrumentation areas for plasmas. The 23rd occurrence of this biennial conference took place on December 14–17, 2020, and was hosted by Los Alamos National Laboratory. Originally scheduled for June 2020 in Santa Fe, New Mexico, the conference was postponed and then held virtually due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. Conference times were adjusted and presentations were scheduled to meet the needs of attendees in Europe, the USA, and Asia.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of theoretical scaling laws using large eddy simulations for airborne spreading of viral contagion from sneezing and coughing

Using a set of large eddy point-particle simulations, we explore the fluid dynamics of an ejected puff resulting from a cough/sneeze. The ejection contains over 61,000 potentially virus-laden droplets at an injection Reynolds number of about 46,000, comparable to an actual cough/ sneeze. We observe that global puff properties, such as centroid, puff volume, momentum, and buoyancy vary little across realizations. Other properties, such as maximum extent, shape, and edge velocity of the puff, may exhibit substantial variation. In many realizations, a portion of the puff splits off and advances along a random direction, while keeping airborne droplet nuclei afloat. This peeled-off portion provides a mechanism for virus-laden droplets to travel over large distances in a short amount of time. We also observe that the vast majority of droplets remain suspended within the puff after all liquid has evaporated. The main objectives of the study are to (i) evaluate assumptions of Balachandar’s et al. theory [Int. J. Multiphase Flow 132, 103439 (2020)], which include buoyancy effects, shape of the puff, and droplet evaporation rate, (ii) obtain values of closure parameters, which include location and time of the virtual origin, and puff entrainment and drag coefficients, and (iii) evaluate the accuracy of the theory in predicting the shape, size, and location of the puff, as well as droplet number density long after ejection. The theory adequately predicts global puff properties including size, velocity, and distance traveled, the largest size of droplets that exit the puff due to settling, and the droplet size distribution within the puff long after ejection.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-spatio-temporal scales PIV in a turbulent buoyant jet discharging in a linearly stratified environment

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry is implemented with a camera array and several laser sheets; this results in a multi-spatio-temporal scale system that is modular and flexible. The setup is optimized to capture global flow features, while locally resolving in space and time near the Kolmogorov scale. The apparatus relies extensively on machine vision CMOS cameras; they are inexpensive and stream to computer hard drive with virtually continuous time-resolved records (up to one hour for the current system). This leads to statistically converged data and also helps in minimizing down time between experimental runs. Details of the implementation and design of experiment are reported. The system instruments a vertical buoyant jet discharging in a linearly stratified environment. Refractive index matched aqueous solutions enable precise optical deployment. The density difference is 3% and the fluids have similar dynamic viscosity. The jet Reynolds number is 2.00 x 10 4 and is above the mixing transition. Such flows are typically challenging to instrument and few velocity field data are available to date. The velocity statistics are reported as well as first insights gained from the campaign.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pellet cladding mechanical interaction as a potential failure mechanism during a control rod drop accident in a boiling water reactor

Boiling water reactors (BWRs) represent approximately one-third of the operating fleet in the United States, contributing significantly towards the global effort in reducing carbon emissions. Even though most of the operating fleet has been in operation for quite some time, continued advancements in new nuclear fuel (such as accident tolerant fuel) or operating regimes (such as power up-rates and higher burnup operation) necessitates similar advancements in modeling and simulation capabilities. Bison, a component of the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA), is a high-fidelity fuel performance code able to explore the fuel performance of a wide variety of fuel types in one-, two-, and three-dimensions. Until recently, the code had not been used for analyses of BWRs. Modeling capabilities have been added for Gd-bearing UO{sub 2} and pure zirconium liners. New models have been added based upon the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guide-lines for hydrogen pickup in Zircaloy-2 claddings and pellet-clad mechanical interaction (PCMI) failure during a reactivity insertion accident (RIA), known as a rod drop accident (CRDA) in BWRs. Implementing and/or improving Bison modeling capabilities extended its analytical reach to areas beyond its original intended purpose. This paper demonstrates one of these capabilities as a proof of concept. Recently developed models enable Bison to provide an alternate approach for cladding integrity determination in CRDA evaluations, which currently use bounding conservative estimates. As part of this demonstration, NRC guidance on hydrogen-pickup and PCMI failure models were utilized in this research. Even though more research is needed in establishing right inputs and process in this area, this paper demonstrates Bison's ability to determine cladding integrity in a CRDA evaluation. This first of a kind demonstration is a proof of concept in this area, which could potentially be extended to a number of other areas where a more accurate cladding integrity determination would be needed. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-decade high-resolution regional hindcasts for wave energy resource characterization in U.S. coastal waters

Long-term, high-resolution, regional wave hindcast datasets were generated using unstructured-grid Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models for the U.S. coastal waters to support nearshore wave energy development in the U.S. including those bordering U.S. territorial islands. The model domains resolved the entire U.S. exclusive economic zones, with a spatial resolution of approximately 200 m nearshore. The regional SWAN models were driven by the global WAVEWATCH III® model outputs and run for a 42-year period from 1979 to 2020. Extensive model validations were performed using buoy observations and altimeter data. Regional resource characterization was performed based on hindcast data points at 2 km from shore and along the 100 m isobath. Aggregations of wave resource parameters were produced, and spatial and seasonal variations were analyzed for all the regions. Wave resource metrics recommended by international standards, including a 3-hour time series of six resource parameters, hourly frequency- and directionally resolved wave spectra at selected “virtual buoy” locations, and average-annual values of omni-directional wave power, significant wave height, and energy period are publicly disseminated through an Amazon Web Service and a Marine Energy Atlas web application tool to facilitate wave energy research and a wide range of coastal ocean applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of DER Voltage Regulation Technologies Using Real-Time Simulations

Grid operators are now considering using distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide distribution voltage regulation rather than installing costly voltage regulation hardware. DER devices include multiple adjustable reactive power control functions, so grid operators have the difficult decision of selecting the best operating mode and settings for the DER. In this work, we develop a novel state estimation-based particle swarm optimization (PSO) for distribution voltage regulation using DER-reactive power setpoints and establish a methodology to validate and compare it against alternative DER control technologies (volt–VAR (VV), extremum seeking control (ESC)) in increasingly higher fidelity environments. Distribution system real-time simulations with virtualized and power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL)-interfaced DER equipment were run to evaluate the implementations and select the best voltage regulation technique. Each method improved the distribution system voltage profile; VV did not reach the global optimum but the PSO and ESC methods optimized the reactive power contributions of multiple DER devices to approach the optimal solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Implementing Mixed Reality Tools to Support Mission Delivery at Hanford - 20520

Mission Support Alliance's (MSA) Public Works and Information Systems organizations have been working with Microsoft Corporation to develop and implement mixed reality operational solutions using their HoloLens technology. This collaborative effort is intended to drive innovative solutions and significantly improve MSA's efficiency in performing work at the Hanford Site. HoloLens, a mixed reality tool, is a commercial off-the-shelf technology that combines a head-mounted viewing screen with applications to help people and organizations learn, communicate, and collaborate more effectively through the use of mixed reality. https://microsoft.com/en-us/hololens MSA's initial pilot successfully demonstrated its ability to use mixed reality utilizing HoloLens' advanced features in a variety of ways, illustrating the potential efficiency gains previously stated as goals of this pilot. These achievements include the development of proprietary technology that allows synchronization between a HoloLens device and a mobile device or alternate global positioning system (GPS) device. This synchronization enables the HoloLens device to access real time GPS location data anywhere on the Hanford Site. This real time location data, combined with MSA's improved Hanford Geographical Information System (GIS) data, enables the mixed reality pilot application to identify underground utility systems as well as related utility attributes. This ability will aid utility workers in several areas, including excavation activities, the placement of large cranes, identifying interactions and conflicts with future underground utility placements and, eventually, recognizing and de-conflicting tank waste transfer system valve alignments. The HoloLens mixed reality application is also able to provide full or small scale holographic images of a facility's digital twin. This feature will allow MSA's Water and Sewer Utilities team to train and validate procedures associated with the new water treatment facility virtually, before it is constructed. This reduces the amount of time it takes to complete the training and procedure validation, and accelerates the overall construction schedule. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Delivering Effective Virtual Energy-Focused Trainings: Successful Strategies and Lessons Learned from the Virtual Cohort In-Plant Training Pilot

While there are always barriers to energy efficiency efforts, few challenges have been as severe as the global COVID-19 pandemic. Many manufacturers throughout the United States and the world have been trying to determine how to safely open and operate their plants. To minimize the number of people working within facilities and maximize the physical distance between workers, only essential facility engineers are allowed into plants to ensure proper operations. The Department of Energy’s Better Plants Program created In-Plant Trainings (INPLTs) to help partners develop in-house expertise in energy efficiency. Delivering INPLTs in the traditional in-person fashion is infeasible under these circumstances. To continue providing INPLTs during this difficult time, the Better Plants Program piloted Virtual Cohort In-Plant Trainings (VINPLTs) on wastewater treatment and ammonia industrial refrigeration systems from October 27 to November 19, 2020. This paper provides an overview of the pilot, then discusses successful strategies and lessons learned from this pilot for delivering effective virtual energy-focused trainings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Employing Technology to Enable Remote Research Charrettes as a Method for Engaging Industry and Uncovering Best Practices: A Novel Approach for a Post-COVID-19 World

Methods to collect data in construction engineering and management (CEM) research are evolving, informed by recent technological advancements. One such method is research charrettes that allow effective interactions and knowledge sharing between expert industry practitioners and academic researchers, all colocated in a single venue, enabling rich data collection and live communication. A pivot point in technological evolution occurred with the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing a global shift to remote work. Hence, planned in-person research charrettes had to shift to remote sessions, relying on virtual conferencing platforms and online data collection mechanisms. Technology-enabled charrettes have allowed the authors to collect significantly richer data sets and ensure a more diverse representation of participants, while saving tremendous amounts of time. With the continuing emergence of technological applications, the world might not go back to functioning fully in person. The authors believe remote research charrettes (RRCs) will still be used in a post-COVID-19 world because of their superior performance. This paper builds on a previous publication that described traditional research charrettes as a method to enhance CEM research a decade ago; it offers a significantly updated and improved RRC method based on the knowledge gained from transitioning a dozen in-person charrettes into RRCs. It also presents performance comparisons between RRCs and traditional charrettes by quantifying metrics indicating how RRCs are more time-efficient and cost-saving, harness more participants from more diverse locations, and enable the collection of richer data sets and four times more industry comments and expert feedback. This paper also provides guidance on the integration of technology with traditional research charrettes, hence contributing to the CEM body of knowledge.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decentralized Filtering Adaptive Neural Network Control for Uncertain Switched Interconnected Nonlinear Systems

This article presents a novel decentralized filtering adaptive neural network control framework for uncertain switched interconnected nonlinear systems. Each subsystem has its own decentralized controller based on the established decentralized state predictor. For each subsystem, the nonlinear uncertainties are approximated by a Gaussian radial basis function (GRBF) neural network incorporated with a piecewise constant adaptive law, where the adaptive law will update adaptive parameters from the error dynamics between the host system and the decentralized state predictor by discarding the unknowns, whereas a decentralized filtering control law is derived to cancel both local and mismatched uncertainties from other subsystems, as well as achieve the local objective tracking of the host system. The achievement of global objective depends on the achievement of local objective for each subsystem. The matched uncertainties are canceled directly by adopting their opposite in the control signal, whereas a dynamic inversion of the system is required to eliminate the effect of the mismatched uncertainties on the output. By exploiting the average dwell time principle, the error bounds between the real system and the virtual reference system, which defines the best performance that can be achieved by the closed-loop system, are derived. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the decentralized filtering adaptive neural network control architecture by comparing against the model reference adaptive control (MRAC).

Average dwell time, decentralized, filtering adapt↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global Data-Driven Determination of Baryon Transition Form Factors

Hadronic resonances emerge from strong interactions encoding the dynamics of quarks and gluons. The structure of these resonances can be probed by virtual photons parametrized in transition form factors. Here, in this study, twelve N* and Δ transition form factors at the pole are extracted from data with the center-of-mass energy from πN threshold to 1.8 GeV, and the photon virtuality 0 ≤ Q 2 /GeV 2 ≤ 8. For the first time, these results are determined from a simultaneous analysis of more than one state, i.e., ~10 5 π⁢N, η⁢N, and K⁢Λ electroproduction data. In addition, about 5×10 4 data in the hadronic sector as well as photoproduction serve as boundary conditions. For the Δ⁡(1232) and N⁡(1440) states our results are in qualitative agreement with previous studies, while the transition form factors at the poles of some higher excited states are estimated for the first time. Realistic uncertainties are determined by further exploring the parameter space.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Discovery of Linear Molecular Probes with Optimal Selective Affinity for PFAS in Water

Approaches to tackle the wide and growing variety of highly persistent per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are of pressing global need because of their detrimental human health effects, such as cancer, birth defects, and hormone imbalance. Sensitive, selective, and easy-to-use real-time sensors to monitor and detect PFAS and sorbents to extract them are critical to meeting government-mandated environmental concentrations. In this work, we combine all-atom molecular dynamics simulations, enhanced sampling, deep representational learning, and Bayesian optimization to perform high-throughput virtual screening for highly sensitive and selective molecular probes. Our molecular design space consists of 3850 linear hydrocarbon chains with varying degrees of halogenation with and without amine- and phosphine-based headgroups. By employing a data-driven search process, we efficiently explore the molecular design space to optimize the sensitivity to perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) as a prototypical PFAS analyte and selectivity relative to a sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) interferent. We calculate 504 Gibbs free energies of probe-analyte and probe-interferent interactions and identify probes with PFOS association free energies of up to (-ΔG PFOS ) = 9.8 ± 0.2 kJ/mol and selectivities relative to SDS of (-ΔΔG PFOS–SDS ) = 3.1 ± 1.5 kJ/mol. A C 11 Br 23 P(CH 3 ) 2 probe containing 11 backbone brominated carbons and a tertiary phosphine headgroup possesses the most sensitive binding constant to PFOS within the defined search space of K b PFOS = 177.4 ± 12.7, and a semibrominated probe C 5 H 11 C 7 Br 14 N(CH 3 ) 2 containing 12 backbone carbons and a tertiary amine headgroup possesses the highest selectivity relative to SDS of K b PFOS /K b SDS = 4.6 ± 1.7. A retrospective analysis of our data to extract interpretable design rules reveals that the sensitivity of linear hydrogenated probes increases by approximately 1 kJ/mol per C–C bond. The addition or removal of halogen atoms and amine or phosphine headgroups produces nonmonotonic changes in both sensitivity and selectivity with changes to the sensitivity of up to 2.5 kJ/mol. Finally, this work places empirical limitations on the performance of a wide range of linear probes for PFOS detection and offers a generic strategy for high-throughput computational screening to promote selective and sensitive binding.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Towards an improved understanding of the influence of subpixel vegetation structure on pixel-level spectra: a simulation approach

The planned NASA Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission, equipped with an imaging spectrometer that has the capability of monitoring ecosystems globally, will provide an unprecedented opportunity to address scientific challenges related to ecosystem function and change. However, uncertainty remains around the impact of subpixel vegetation structure, in combination with the point spread function, on pixel-level imaging spectroscopy data. We estimated structural parameters, e.g., leaf area index (LAI), canopy cover, and tree location, from HyspIRI spectral data, with the goal of assessing how subpixel variation in these parameters impact pixel-level imaging spectroscopy data. The fine-scale variability of real vegetation structure makes this a challenging endeavor. Therefore, we utilized a simulation-based approach to counter the time-consuming and often destructive sampling needs of vegetation structural analysis and to simultaneously generate synthetic HyspIRI data pre-launch. Three virtual scenes were constructed, corresponding to the actual vegetation structure in the National Ecological Observatory Network’s (NEON) Pacific Southwest Domain (Fresno, CA). These included an oak savanna, a dense coniferous forest, and a conifer-manzanita-mixed forest. Simulated spectroscopy data for these scenes were then generated using the Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) model. Simulations first were used to verify the physical model, virtual scene geometrical information, and simulation parameters. This was followed by simulations of HyspIRI data, where within-pixel structural variability was introduced, e.g., by iteratively changing per-pixel canopy cover and tree placement, tree clustering, leaf area index (LAI), etc., between simulation runs for the virtual scenes. Finally, narrow-band vegetation indices (VIs) were extracted from the data in an attempt to describe the variability of the subpixel structural parameters; this was done in order to assess VI robustness to changes in structural “levels”, as well as placement of trees/canopies within the instrument’s instantaneous field-of-view (IFOV). Our ultimate goal is not only to better understand how such subpixel variability influence imaging spectroscopy outputs, but also to better estimate vegetation structural parameters using spectra. We constructed regression models for LAI (R2 = 0.92) and canopy cover (R2 = 0.97) with narrow-band VIs via this simulation approach. Our models ultimately are intended to improve the HyspIRI mission’s ability to monitor global vegetation structure.

Van Aardt, Jan↗