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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Kernel-based global sensitivity analysis obtained from a single data set

Results from global sensitivity analysis (GSA) often guide the understanding of complicated input–output systems. Kernel-based GSA methods have recently been proposed for their capability of treating a broad scope of complex systems. In this paper, we develop a new set of kernel GSA tools when only a single set of input–output data is available. Three key advances are made: (1) A new numerical estimator is proposed that demonstrates an empirical improvement over previous procedures. (2) A computational method for generating inner statistical functions from a single data set is presented. (3) A theoretical extension is made to define conditional sensitivity indices, which reveal the degree that the inputs carry shared information about the output when inherent input–input correlations are present. Utilizing these conditional sensitivity indices, a decomposition is derived for the output uncertainty based on what is called the optimal learning sequence of the input variables, which remains consistent when correlations exist between the input variables. Further, while these advances cover a range of GSA subjects, a common single data set numerical solution is provided by a technique known as the conditional mean embedding of distributions. The new methodology is implemented on benchmark systems to demonstrate the provided insights.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing convergence in global sensitivity analysis: a review of methods for assessing and monitoring convergence

In global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a model, a proper convergence analysis of metrics is essential for ensuring a level of confidence or trustworthiness in sensitivity results obtained, yet is somewhat deficient in practice. The level of confidence in sensitivity measures, particularly in relation to their influence and support for decisions from scientific, social and policy perspectives, is heavily reliant on the convergence of GSA. We review the literature and summarize the available methods for monitoring and assessing convergence of sensitivity measures based on application purposes. The aim is to expose the various choices for convergence assessment and encourage further testing of available methods to clarify their level of robustness. Furthermore, the review identifies a pressing need for comparative studies on convergence assessment methods to establish a clear hierarchy of effectiveness and encourages the adoption of systematic approaches for enhanced robustness in sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Sobol’ Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis and Multidimensional Legendre Polynomial Fitting for Reduced Order Modeling

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed a novel reduced order modeling approach. Prioritization of inputs is accomplished using Sobo' indices obtained through a more efficient variance-based global sensitivity analysis. To determine the Sobo' functions, simulated input values are aligned to collocation points to permit the use of Gauss-Lobatto integration, thereby reducing the number of simulation trials needed by more than an order of magnitude compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches. Furthermore, by leveraging the orthogonality of Legendre polynomials in conjunction with those same simulations at the collocation nodes, an efficient fitting method is developed to represent the Sobo' functions from which a reduced order model (ROM) is constructed. The developed method is both more efficient computationally, and the resulting ROM is more accurate. The efficacy of this technique is demonstrated on a nonlinear polynomial test function as well as the nonlinear Ishigami and Sobo' g functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING↗