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Advances in Landslide Hazard Forecasting: Evaluation of Global and Regional Modeling Approach
A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that exhibit a high potential for landslide activity by combining a calculation of landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale landslide forecasting efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. The evaluation finds that the landslide forecasting may be more feasible at a regional scale. This study draws upon a prior work's recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and forecasting at the regional scale. This case study uses a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America: Guatemala, Honduras, EI Salvador and Nicaragua. A regional susceptibility map is calculated from satellite and surface datasets using a statistical methodology. The susceptibility map is tested with a regional rainfall intensity-duration triggering relationship and results are compared to global algorithm framework for the Hurricane Mitch event. The statistical results suggest that this regional investigation provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment, providing more realistic landslide forecasts for this case study. Evaluation of landslide hazards for this extreme event helps to identify several potential improvements of the algorithm framework, but also highlights several remaining challenges for the algorithm assessment, transferability and performance accuracy. Evaluation challenges include representation errors from comparing susceptibility maps of different spatial resolutions, biases in event-based landslide inventory data, and limited nonlandslide event data for more comprehensive evaluation. Additional factors that may improve algorithm performance accuracy include incorporating additional triggering factors such as tectonic activity, anthropogenic impacts and soil moisture into the algorithm calculation. Despite these limitations, the methodology presented in this regional evaluation is both straightforward to calculate and easy to interpret, making results transferable between regions and allowing findings to be placed within an inter-comparison framework. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment and forecasting.
A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology
Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.
Predicting images for the dynamics of stellar clusters ( π-DOC ): a deep learning framework to predict mass, distance, and age of globular clusters
ABSTRACT Dynamical mass estimates of simple systems such as globular clusters (GCs) still suffer from up to a factor of 2 uncertainty. This is primarily due to the oversimplifications of standard dynamical models that often neglect the effects of the long-term evolution of GCs. Here, we introduce a new approach to measure the dynamical properties of GCs, based on the combination of a deep-learning framework and the large amount of data from direct N-body simulations. Our algorithm, π-DOC (Predicting Images for the Dynamics Of stellar Clusters) is composed of two convolutional networks, trained to learn the non-trivial transformation between an observed GC luminosity map and its associated mass distribution, age, and distance. The training set is made of V-band luminosity and mass maps constructed as mock observations from N-body simulations. The tests on π-DOC demonstrate that we can predict the mass distribution with a mean error per pixel of 27 per cent, and the age and distance with an accuracy of 1.5 Gyr and 6 kpc, respectively. In turn, we recover the shape of the mass-to-light profile and its global value with a mean error of 12 per cent, which implies that we efficiently trace mass segregation. A preliminary comparison with observations indicates that our algorithm is able to predict the dynamical properties of GCs within the limits of the training set. These encouraging results demonstrate that our deep-learning framework and its forward modelling approach can offer a rapid and adaptable tool competitive with standard dynamical models.
Job Scheduling in a Heterogeneous Grid Environment
Computational grids have the potential for solving large-scale scientific problems using heterogeneous and geographically distributed resources. However, a number of major technical hurdles must be overcome before this potential can be realized. One problem that is critical to effective utilization of computational grids is the efficient scheduling of jobs. This work addresses this problem by describing and evaluating a grid scheduling architecture and three job migration algorithms. The architecture is scalable and does not assume control of local site resources. The job migration policies use the availability and performance of computer systems, the network bandwidth available between systems, and the volume of input and output data associated with each job. An extensive performance comparison is presented using real workloads from leading computational centers. The results, based on several key metrics, demonstrate that the performance of our distributed migration algorithms is significantly greater than that of a local scheduling framework and comparable to a non-scalable global scheduling approach.
Future Response of Coastal Wetlands to Environmental Stresses: Algorithm Comparison of Numerical Models
Coastal wetlands are a critical component of the earth system that strongly influence the global water and biogeochemical cycles. They are also likely important sentinel of climate change. Because eco-geomorphological processes have long been recognized to be important for coastal wetland survival under accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), many eco-geomorphology models have been developed to assess the impact of climate change on coastal wetlands. Although these models differ substantially in complexity and numerical methods, few studies have investigated the algorithm-level uncertainties in these models. In this study, we developed a multiple-algorithm model framework of coastal wetlands that represents coastal hydrodynamics (such as water level, significant wave height and bottom shear stress) and four eco-geomorphological processes: mineral accretion, organic matter accretion, storm surge erosion and landward migration. We validated the model at three representative coastal wetland sites (Venice Lagoon, Plum Island Estuary and Hunter Estuary) for hydrodynamics, mineral accretion and organic matter accretion. Through model-data comparison, we showed that the model can well capture the dynamics of hydrodynamical and eco-geomorphological conditions in the study sites. Importantly, analysis of the multiple-algorithm simulations suggests that differences in the process representation of mineral and organic matter accretion may contribute to the recent contradicting predictions of coastal wetland evolution under accelerated SLR.
An embedded grid formulation applied to delta wings
An embedded grid algorithm for the Euler and/or Navier-Stokes equations is developed and applied to delta wings at high angles of attack in low speed flow. The Navier-Stokes code is an implicit, finite volume algorithm, using flux difference splitting for the convective and pressure terms and central differencing for the viscous and heat transfer terms. Calculations are compared with detailed experimental results over an angle of attack range up to and beyond the maximum lift coefficient, corresponding to vortex breakdown at the trailing edge, for a delta wing nominally of unit aspect ratio. The results indicate that the overall flowfield, including surface pressures, surface streamlines, and vortex trajectories, can be simulated accurately with the global grid version of the present algorithm. However, comparison of computed velocities and vorticity with experimentally measured off-body values at an angle of attack of 20.5 deg indicates the core region is substantially more diffuse in the computations than that measured with either a five-hole probe or a laser velocimeter. Embedded grids, used to improve the numerical discretization in the core region, are formulated within the framework of the implicit, upwind-biased multi-grid algorithm. Structured levels of local nested refinements are made. Three-dimensional results for both Euler and Navier-Stokes calculations are shown, with up to 3 levels of embedded refinement. The embedding procedure was effective in eliminating a crossflow secondary separation produced in the Euler solutions on coarse grids.
A comparative study of shear band tracking strategies in three-dimensional finite elements with embedded weak discontinuities
We present a computational framework for the treatment of shear localization in metallic materials under dynamic loading, based on the integration of a shear band tracking strategy into an explicit 3D finite element formulation with embedded weak discontinuities. Within this computational framework, an embedded shear band’s mid-surface is represented by an iso-surface of a level set function, which is obtained by solving a heatconduction type boundary value problem (BVP). The solution of this BVP is carried out either globally over the entire problem domain, or locally at the level of individual elements in the mesh. In this paper, we present a detailed comparison of these global and local algorithmic implementations of the shear band tracking strategy. Numerical results obtained using these two implementations, and using a simplified formulation without shear band tracking, are presented and compared. Moreover, we compare the computational efficiency and parallel scaling performance of the local and global implementations. This comparative study shows that both implementations can simulate the initiation of two independent shear bands and their propagation past each other without merging, whereas only the global implementation can successfully simulate the merging of two branches of a single shear band. This study also confirms that the global implementation is more computationally intensive, since it requires a global system of linear equations associated with the level set BVP to be solved at each time step. Both implementations exhibit very good scalability in domain decomposition-based parallel simulations.
On the Advantages of Using Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 Data for Monitoring Environmental Change
NASA coordinates the Satellite Needs Working Group, dedicated to identifying, communicating, and addressing Earth observation needs of federal agencies. In 2016, the Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) dataset was formulated and implemented to fulfill multiple needs. The combination of acquisitions from the Landsat and Sentinel-2 platforms results in a global dataset of surface reflectance with a temporal resolution of two days, while retaining the geometry and 30-meter spatial resolution of Landsat data. This harmonization allows for seamless integration with the 40-year archive of Landsat data. The HLS dataset is now available on the Google Earth Engine, enabling HLS utilization in various algorithms and frameworks essential for monitoring environmental change worldwide. During this presentation, we will demonstrate and discuss the advantages of using HLS data in comparison to using separate streams of Landsat and Sentinel-2 data in existing time series-based frameworks for change monitoring. Specifically, we will explore the application of HLS for continuous monitoring of deforestation using time series-based algorithms traditionally run with Landsat data. Additionally, we will showcase the benefits of HLS data for near real-time monitoring of forest disturbance in tropical regions. These examples underscore the value and utility of the HLS dataset for environmental monitoring and analysis.
Object-Based Comparison of Data-Driven and Physics-Driven Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of spaceborne sensors provides a variety of direct and indirect measurements of precipitation processes. Such observations can be employed to derive spatially and temporally consistent gridded precipitation estimates either via data-driven retrieval algorithms or by assimilation into physically based numerical weather models. We compare the data-driven Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the assimilation-enabled NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model against Stage IV reference precipitation for four major extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States using an object-based analysis framework that decomposes gridded precipitation fields into storm objects. As an alternative to conventional ‘‘grid-by-grid analysis,’’ the object-based approach provides a promising way to diagnose spatial properties of storms, trace them through space and time, and connect their accuracy to storm types and input data sources. The evolution of two tropical cyclones are generally captured by IMERG and NU-WRF, while the less organized spatial patterns of two mesoscale convective systems pose challenges for both. NU-WRF rain rates are generally more accurate, while IMERG better captures storm location and shape. Both show higher skill in detecting large, intense storms compared to smaller, weaker storms. IMERG’s accuracy depends on the input microwave and infrared data sources; NU-WRF does not appear to exhibit this dependence. Findings highlight that an object-oriented view can provide deeper insights into satellite precipitation performance and that the satellite precipitation community should further explore the potential for ‘‘hybrid’’ data-driven and physics-driven estimates in order to make optimal usage of satellite observations.
A new framework to map fine resolution cropping intensity across the globe: Algorithm, validation, and implication
We report accurate estimation of cropping intensity (CI), an indicator of food production, is well aligned with the ongoing efforts to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) under diminishing natural resources. The advancement in satellite remote sensing provides unprecedented opportunities for capturing CI information in a spatially continuous manner. However, challenges remain due to the lack of generalizable algorithms for accurately and efficiently mapping global CI with a fine spatial resolution. In this study, we developed a 30-m planetary-scale CI mapping framework with the reconstructed time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from multiple satellite images. Using a binary crop phenophase profile indicating growing and non-growing periods, we estimated pixel-by-pixel CI by enumerating the total number of valid cropping cycles during the study years. Based on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform, we implemented the framework to estimate CI during 2016–2018 in eight geographic regions across continents that are representative of global cropping system diversity. Comparison with PhenoCam network data in four cropland sites suggests that the proposed framework is capable of capturing the seasonal dynamics of cropping practices. Spatially, overall accuracies based on validation samples range from 80.0% to 98.9% across different regions worldwide. Regarding the CI classes, single cropping systems are associated with more robust and less biased estimations than multiple cropping systems. Finally, our CI estimates reveal high agreement with two widely used land surface phenology products, including Vegetation Index and Phenology V004 (VIP4) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2), meanwhile providing much more spatial details. Due to its robustness, the developed CI framework can be potentially generalized to produce global fine resolution CI products for food security and other applications.
Comparison of Distributive Consensus Algorithms for AnomalyDetection on the Power-Grid
As an increasing number of devices in the power-grid rely on high-precision clocks to measure electrical properties and time stamp data, GPS receivers have become a vulnerability on the power-grid. GPS spoofing attacks, in which a fake signal is transmitted, can cause sensor measurement errors that can misinform protective equipment and grid operators for both the transmission and distribution grid. The technology being developed to secure precision clocks in the transmission grid are not appropriate for the distribution grid. Thus, there is a need to developed anomaly detection algorithms that are suitable for the hardware available on the distribution grid. Traditionally, a distributed detection framework is comprised of spatially distributed nodes which acquire observations about a quantity of interest and sends the data to the fusion center, where a global decision is made. Instead the distribution grid has low-power devices, such as smart inverters and microPMUs, that could be used to perform highly parallelized calculations. Having on node calculations is beneficial since it is more network and computation efficient, as the more calculations can be performed where the data is being captured instead of communicating across a slow network to a centralized fusion center. Instead, we could employ an alternate peer-to-peer type of information exchange on the distribution grid that can still reach a global decision. A decentralized approach to anomaly detection makes efficient use of the computational and network bandwidth that exists, and it also lacks the single point of failure of a centralized approach. Thus, a decentralized local information exchange and/or inference is preferred. Lastly, the unreliability of the distribution grid network connections and potential noise or error in the measurements must be considered. In order to produce an effective detection tool, a Byzantine-fault tolerant and asynchronous algorithm must be developed. Thus, the first phase of our project is to develop a distributed, decentralized, asynchronous, Byzantine-fault tolerant, collaborative autonomy-based anomaly detection algorithm to collectively analyze clusters of data for signs of a malicious attack.
Optimized Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Substructure Design Trends for 10–30 MW Turbines in Low-, Medium-, and High-Severity Wave Environments
Floating offshore wind is a promising renewable energy source, as 60% of the wind resources globally are found at depths requiring floating technologies, it minimizes construction at sea, and provides opportunities for industrialization given a lower site dependency. While floating offshore wind has numerous advantages, a current obstacle is its cost in comparison to more established energy sources. One cost-reduction approach for floating wind is increasing turbine capacities, which minimizes the amount of foundations, moorings, cables, and O&M equipment. This work presents trends in mass-optimized VolturnUS hull designs as turbine capacity increases for various wave environments. To do this, a novel rapid hull optimization framework is presented that employs frequency domain modeling, estimations of statistical extreme responses, industry constructability requirements, and genetic algorithm optimization to generate preliminary mass-optimal VolturnUS hull designs for a given turbine design and set of site conditions. Using this framework, mass-optimized VolturnUS hull designs were generated for 10–30 MW turbines for wave environments of varying severities. These design studies show that scaling up turbine capacities increases the mass efficiency of substructure designs, with decreasing returns, throughout the examined turbine capacity range. Additionally, increased wave environment severity is shown to increase the required mass of a given substructure design.
Intercomparison of Atmospheric Radiation Schemes for the Lower Martian Atmosphere
Interpretation of the vast data flow from the recent and ongoing Mars missions requires extensive modeling activity to support the investigations and conclusions drawn from the observations. We have initiated a campaign to compare atmospheric radiation schemes for the lower Martian atmosphere with leastcompromise reference line-by-line calculations (Meadows and Crisp 1996, Crisp 1986). By using fixed reference conditions we are introducing an intercomparison framework to enable atmospheric modeling teams to compare their modeling results with the reference line-by-line calculations, and to improve their models. The atmosphere of Mars is thin and therefore its response to local radiative forcing is strong when compared to that of the Earth s troposphere. Airborne dust and also the water vapor give significant contributions to the radiative fluxes. Thus models of the Martian atmosphere should have fairly accurate radiative transfer (RT) algorithms. This is specifically important for the net radiative flux at the surface, which is the main driver for the surface temperature evolution, since the surface turbulent fluxes are small due to the thin atmosphere (e.g. Haberle et al. 1993, Savij arvi 1991a, Savij arvi 1991b, Savij arvi 1999). However, the accuracy of the RT schemes has not been rigorously tested in many cases as reference calculations have been rare. We introduce a set of reference cases for Martian atmospheric conditions with profiles for temperature, pressure, dust optical depth (Conrath 1975, Clancy et al. 1995, OckertBell et al. 1997, Smith et al. 2000), water, CO2,O3,CO and O2 (Table 1). The reference atmosphere uses a diurnally and globally averaged thermal structure derived from Mariner 9 IRIS observations acquired during late southern summer. Thermal structures for nighttime and daytime conditions will be included shortly. Computationally expensive reference simulations were performed by applying a spectrum resolving (line-by-line multiple scattering) model, SRM, to give the least-compromise base for comparisons. We call for other groups to join in future comparisons. This resembles the International Comparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models (ICRCCM; e.g. Ellingson and Fouquart 1991, Ellingson et al. 1991). The ICRCCM led to many improvements in the Earth GCM radiation codes. The intercomparison framework presented in this paper is a step toward that direction for Mars. We have already five modeling teams participating in this intercomparison exercice. Additional teams investigating the Martian atmosphere are cordially invited to join this effort of comparing the radiation schemes in fixed conditions. The results achieved will be reported and some additional features to be included in the intercomparison will be discussed.
Developing a simulator-based satellite dataset for using machine learning techniques to derive aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in models and observations in a consistent framework
Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions (ACPI) remain a major uncertainty in understanding the Earth’s radiation budget and water cycle (including extremes). After decades of active research, various observationally based metrics have been developed to constrain ACPI in Earth System Models (ESMs), but direct comparison of model and data estimates can confound scientific understanding because limitations and uncertainties in sampling and retrieval procedures may combine with model deficiencies in process representations of ACPI to obstruct understanding. Furthermore, conventional ACPI metrics often vary from one regime to another, and the ACPI process representation in ESMs is also typically derived based on only a limited area/regime (even though the parameterization applies globally). To bridge the gap between models and data and to correctly describe ACPI in all regimes, we propose to construct a new CALIPSO-CloudSat merged dataset that is produced by the same algorithms used in satellite simulators in ESMs, and to use machine learning techniques to derive new ACPI metrics that can be accurately estimated by satellites and can provide meaningful constraints on cloud microphysical process representations in ESMs. The dataset will include measured and retrieved variables for aerosol, cloud, and precipitation from CALIPSO and CloudSat, and environmental variables from meteorological reanalysis. The data will be used to train a neural network to construct the ACPI metrics as a function of environmental conditions. The new ACPI formula will be used to constrain the ACPI in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), and to augment/reformulate the ACPI process representation in the E3SM to improve the simulation of the evolution of the atmosphere under different environmental conditions.
Comparisons of global aerosol simulations from GOCART and GMI-UMich
Global aerosol mass and optical thickness (AOT) simulated by two aerosol models (GOCART and GMI-UMich) are evaluated and the strengths and shortcomings of the model approaches are investigated. These two offline CTM models are driven by the same meteorological fields (NASA GEOS-4), use the same dynamic transport algorithm, and have the same spatial resolution. However, they differ partially in emission, dry/wet deposition, and chemistry. The simulated aerosol masses are evaluated by the surface long-term measurements and short-term field campaigns (ACE-Asia and TRACE-P). AOT are calculated using modeled aerosol mass but externally mixed for GOCART and partially internally mixed for GMI-Mich. These AOT are evaluated using satellite observations from MODIS and MISR and ground measurements from AERONET. Our work demonstrates that there are significant differences in simulated aerosol mass and AOT by the two approaches. Further investigation will be performed to evaluate each mechanism which induces the differences quantitatively by implementing GOCART-like emission, deposition, and chemistry into GMI framework.
The System for Classification of Low-Pressure Systems (SyCLoPS): An All-In-One Objective Framework for Large-Scale Data Sets
We propose the first unified objective framework (SyCLoPS) for detecting and classifying all types of low-pressure systems (LPSs) in a given data set. We use the state-of-the-art automated feature tracking software TempestExtremes (TE) to detect and track LPS features globally in ERA5 and compute 16 parameters from commonly found atmospheric variables for classification. A Python classifier is implemented to classify all LPSs at once. The framework assigns 16 different labels (classes) to each LPS data point and designates four different types of high-impact LPS tracks, including tracks of tropical cyclone (TC), monsoonal system, subtropical storm and polar low. The classification process involves disentangling high-altitude and drier LPSs, differentiating tropical and non-tropical LPSs using novel criteria, and optimizing for the detection of the four types of high-impact LPS. A comparison of our labels with those in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) revealed an overall accuracy of 95% in distinguishing between tropical systems, extratropical cyclones, and disturbances. SyCLoPS produces a better TC detection skill compared to the previous algorithms, highlighted by an approximately 6% reduction in the false alarm rate compared to the previous TE algorithm. The vertical cross section composite of the four types of high-impact LPS we detect each shows distinct structural characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate that SyCLoPS is valuable for investigating various aspects of LPSs in climate data, such as the evolution of a single LPS track, patterns of LPS frequencies, and precipitation or wind influence associated with a particular LPS class.
Partial differential equations preconditioner resilient to soft and hard faults
We present a domain-decomposition-based preconditioner for the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) that is resilient to both soft and hard faults. The algorithm reformulates the PDE as a sampling problem, followed by a solution update through data manipulation that is resilient to both soft and hard faults. This reformulation allows us to recast the problem as a set of independent tasks, and exploit data locality to reduce global communication. We discuss two different parallel implementations: (a) a single program multiple data (SPMD) version based on a one-to-one mapping between subdomain and MPI processes responsible for both state and computation; and (b) an asynchronous server–client implementation where all state information is held by the servers and clients are designed solely as computational units. We present a scalability comparison of both implementations under nominal conditions, showing efficiency within ~80% for up to 12,000 cores. We present a resilience analysis under different fault scenarios based on the server–client implementation. This framework provides resiliency to hard faults such that if a client crashes, it stops asking for work, and the servers simply distribute the work among all of the other clients alive. Erroneous subdomain solves (e.g. due to soft faults) appear as corrupted data, which is either rejected if that causes a task to fail, or is seamlessly filtered out during the regression stage through a suitable noise model. Three different types of faults are modeled: hard faults modeling nodes (or clients) crashing; soft faults occurring during the communication of the tasks between server and clients; and soft faults occurring during task execution. We demonstrate the resiliency of the approach for a 2D elliptic PDE, and explore the effect of the faults at various failure rates.