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Geothermal reservoir engineering research

The Stanford University research program on the study of stimulation and reservoir engineering of geothermal resources commenced as an interdisciplinary program in September, 1972. The broad objectives of this program have been: (1) the development of experimental and computational data to evaluate the optimum performance of fracture-stimulated geothermal reservoirs; (2) the development of a geothermal reservoir model to evaluate important thermophysical, hydrodynamic, and chemical parameters based on fluid-energy-volume balances as part of standard reservoir engineering practice; and (3) the construction of a laboratory model of an explosion-produced chimney to obtain experimental data on the processes of in-place boiling, moving flash fronts, and two-phase flow in porous and fractured hydrothermal reservoirs.

Ramey, H. J., Jr.↗

The Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model with an Application to a Geothermal Reservoir at Heber, California

A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties was developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.

Orren, L. H.↗

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗

Geothermal probabilistic cost study

A tool is presented to quantify the risks of geothermal projects, the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPCM). The GPCM model was used to evaluate a geothermal reservoir for a binary-cycle electric plant at Heber, California. Three institutional aspects of the geothermal risk which can shift the risk among different agents was analyzed. The leasing of geothermal land, contracting between the producer and the user of the geothermal heat, and insurance against faulty performance were examined.

Orren, L. H.↗

Remote Sensing Applications for Antrim Shale Fracture Characterization, Michigan Basin

Advanced Research International (ARI) sent seven staff members to the 1997 International Coalbed Methane Symposium, held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama from May 12-17. ARI gave a short course on risk reduction strategies, including remote fracture detection, for coalbed methane exploration and development that was attended by about 25 coalbed methane industry professionals; and presented a paper entitled 'Optimizing coalbed methane cavity completion operations with the application of a new discrete element model.' We met with many potential clients and discussed our fracture detection services. China has vast coalbed methane resources, but is still highly dependent on coal-and wood-burning. This workshop, sponsored by the United Nations, was intended to help China develop its less-polluting energy reserves. ARI is successfully finding new applications for its fracture detection services. Coalbed methane exploration became an important market in this quarter, with the inception of a joint industry/government collaboration between ARI, Texaco and DOE to use remote fracture detection to identify areas with good potential for coalbed methane production in the Ferron Coal Trend of central Utah. Geothermal energy exploration is another emerging market for ARI, where fracture detection is applied to identify pathways for groundwater recharge, movement, and the locations of potential geothermal reservoirs. Ari continued work on two industry/government collaborations to demonstrate fracture detection to potential clients. Also completed the technical content layout for multimedia CD-ROM that describes our remote fracture detection services.

Kuuskraa, Vello↗