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Methods for forecasting the state of the space environment, Sun, interplanetary field, magnetosphere, and ionosphere are discussed. Areas requiring scientific advancements to support the increasing operational requirements of systems that use or are affected by the environment above 50 km are identified.
Main features of solar activity are described in relation to solar and geophysical forecasting. Spectroheliograms, radio and X-ray data, white light coronal observations, particles data, photospheric images, and photospheric magnetic fields are among the types of data used to identify the active centers and flares of the Sun. Forecasting and identification of geomagnetic activity is also discussed. The forecasting technique is described along with the types of users.
A system of seven tables, which cover analysis archiving, observation types, quality control, data assimilation cycles, assimilating models, initialization, and analysis techniques was adopted. The set of prepared tables allows side-by-side comparison of the characteristics of the six data assimilation systems (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Science, National Meteorological Center, Florida State University, and Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility) used to produce FGGE IIIb analyses.
Solar energetic radiation forecasting techniques are described. The factors that are used as the basis for the forecasts are discussed.
The atmospheric spectral energetics studies performed before the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) were reviewed, and the deficiencies of these studies were pointed out. The data generated by the FGGE IIIb analyses of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences over the entire globe during the FGGE summer and winter are used to analyze the atmospheric spectral energetics. Comparisons were made between the results using three FGGE IIIb analyses, and between previous and current studies with the spectral energetics of the Southern Hemisphere.
Effective management of energy resources is critical for the U.S. economy, the environment, and, more broadly, for sustainable development and alleviating poverty worldwide. The scope of energy management is broad, ranging from energy production and end use to emissions monitoring and mitigation and long-term planning. Given the extensive NASA Earth science research on energy and related weather and climate-related parameters, and rapidly advancing energy technologies and applications, there is great potential for increased application of NASA Earth science research to selected energy management issues and decision support tools. The NASA Energy Management Program Element is already involved in a number of projects applying NASA Earth science research to energy management issues, with a focus on solar and wind renewable energy and developing interests in energy modeling, short-term load forecasting, energy efficient building design, and biomass production.
There has long been interest in knowing the shape and location of the Earth's magnetopause and of the standing fast-mode bow shock upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. This quest for knowledge spans both the research and operations arenas. Pertinent to the latter, nowcasting and near-term forecasting are important for determining the extent to which the magnetosphere is compressed or expanded due to the influence of the solar wind bulk plasma and fields and the coupling to other magnetosphere-ionosphere processes with possible effects on assets. This article provides an update to a previous article on the same topic published 15 years earlier, with focus on studies that have been conducted, the current status of nowcasting and forecasting of geophysical boundaries, and future endeavors.
Owing to the problems that data assimilation procedures have in analyzing data in the tropics and to the apparent differences in the descriptions of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) assimilation suites, a brief comparison was done of the resulting analyses in the tropics. Three cases each were selected for Standard Operating Procedures 1 and 2 at the 200 and 850 mb levels, the wind fields for 25 deg N 25 deg S were partitioned into a rotational and divergent component, and various statistics of each were calculated.
Atmospheric-thermodynamic parameters and surface properties are basic meteorological parameters for weather forecasting. A physical geophysical parameter retrieval scheme dealing with cloudy and cloud-free radiance observed with satellite ultraspectral infrared sounders has been developed and applied to the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS). The retrieved parameters presented herein are from radiance data gathered during the Joint Airborne IASI Validation Experiment (JAIVEx). JAIVEx provided intensive aircraft observations obtained from airborne Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) systems, in-situ measurements, and dedicated dropsonde and radiosonde measurements for the validation of the IASI products. Here, IASI atmospheric profile retrievals are compared with those obtained from dedicated dropsondes, radiosondes, and the airborne FTS system. The IASI examples presented here demonstrate the ability to retrieve fine-scale horizontal features with high vertical resolution from satellite ultraspectral sounder radiance spectra.
The NASA Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of small satellites carrying state-of-art microwave temperature and humidity sounders with 12 channels between 91 GHz and 205 GHz frequency. Including TROPICS-pathfinder, launched on 30 June 2021, five TROPICS CubeSats operate and provide temperature and humidity data to NWP and atmospheric retrieval communities. This study is dedicated to evaluating the impact of the TROPICS satellite constellation microwave observations in numerical weather prediction (NWP) using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). The TROPICS-01 (TROPICS-Pathfinder), TROPICS-03, TROPICS-05, and TROPICS-06 data in all-sky conditions over the ocean during the period of 25 July 2023 and 6 September 2023 are used for assessing forecast impacts on global NWP analysis and five-day forecasts. A series of experiments are carried out to measure the benefits of assimilating observations from only temperature sounders, water vapor sounders, and both sounders. Statistical analysis of the Observing System Experiments (OSEs) results has shown incremental improvements in global model forecast skills for critical geophysical parameters, including temperature, winds, and geopotential heights. The results demonstrate the potential of the TROPICS-like data to positively impact NWP by adding new information to the current observation and forecast system. In another set of experiments, the TROPICS-03, TROPICS-05, and TROPICS-06 data sets are added to the TROPICS-01 one by one to evaluate the impacts of increasing the revisit rate of TROPICS satellite measurements on NWP analysis for a tropical cyclone’s dynamical and microphysical structures. This study offers important insights into the capabilities of a new generation of small satellite microwave radiometers based on emerging technologies, including their unique measurements at 118 GHz and 205 GHz that are not available in traditional operational microwave sounders. Finally, the efforts to implement these new developments for TROPICS in the JEDI-GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system are in progress, and preliminary results from cycled JEDI-GEOS data assimilation experiments are presented.
Angular grid spacing resolution near poles effect tests in global prediction model for geophysical fluid dynamics, investigating forecast height and wind fields
The solar-geophysical events of 1977 September 7-26 are presented. A variety of disturbance forecasting problems, viz, disc transit of a center of activity with high microwave flux but relatively low meter-wave flux, flares in this region near east limb, central meridian, and west limb with major radio events, and the presence of two coronal holes, were observed. The Sydney daily GEOSYD message and IPS Disturbance Warnings issued during this period are related to the solar geophysical data available, at the time, about these events.
With the availability of very accurate forecasts, the metric of accuracy alone for the evaluation of the performance of a retrieval system can produce misleading results. A useful characterization of the quality of a retrieval system and its potential to contribute to an improved weather forecast is its skill, which we define as the ability to make retrievals of geophysical parameters which are closer to the truth than the six hour forecast, when the truth differs significantly from the forecast. We illustrate retrieval skill using one day of AMSU and AIRS data with three different retrieval algorithms, which result in retrievals for more than 90% of the potential retrievals under clear and cloudy conditions. Two of the three algorithms have better than 1 K rms "RAOB quality" accuracy on the troposphere, but only one has skill between 900 and 100 mb. AIRS was launched on the EOS Aqua spacecraft in May 2002 into a 705 km polar sun-synchronous orbit with accurately maintained 1:30 PM ascending node. Essentially uninterrupted data are freely available since September 2002.
Satellite imager calibration teams are tasked with maintaining stable measurement records to facilitate reliable monitoring of geophysical parameters and ensure dependable input for forecast models. Satellite imagers are neither uniformly calibrated nor radiometrically scaled to a common reference standard. Consistent inter-calibration between various earth-orbiting satellite imager pairs is a critical step in the creation of seamless earth-scene reflectance data records over time for input to higher level algorithms that retrieve earth system climate-sensitive properties. Each imager inherently by virtue of its optics (and associated properties like spectral response etc.) and orbit will have a unique measurement of the same earth-scene reflected signal. A key part of this is the computationally efficient and optimal identification and prediction of science opportunities where the imager pairs from the irrespective earth-orbits near-simultaneously view the same stable terrestrial targets with nearly identical viewing and solar geometry.
In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).
We analyze the residual errors for the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) solar wind speed forecasts as a function of the photospheric magnetic field expansion factor (fp) and the minimum separation angle (d) in the photosphere between the footpoints of open field lines and the nearest coronal hole boundary. We find the map of residual speed errors are systematic when examined as a function of fp and d. We use these residual error maps to apply corrections to the model speeds. We test this correction approach using 3-day lead time speed forecasts for an entire year of observations and model results. Our methods can readily be applied to develop corrections for the remaining WSA forecast lead times which range from 1 to 7 days in 1-day increments. Since the solar wind density, temperature, and the interplanetary magnetic field strength all correlate well with the solar wind speed, the improved accuracy of solar wind speed forecasts enables the production of multiday forecasts of the solar wind density, temperature, pressure, and interplanetary field strength, and geophysical indices. These additional parameters would expand the usefulness of Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport-WSA forecasts for space weather clients.
The Environmental Research Laboratories (ERL) have been designated as the basic research group of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ERL performs an integrated program of research and research services directed toward understanding the geophysical environment, protecting the environment, and improving the forecasting ability of NOAA. Twenty-four laboratories located throughout the United States comprise ERL. The Project SESAME (Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiment) Planning Office is a project office within ERL. SESAME is conceived as a joint effort involving NOAA, NASA, NSF, and the atmospheric science community to lay the foundation for improved prediction of severe convective storms. The scientific plan for SESAME includes a phased buildup of analysis, modeling, instrumentation development and procurement, and limited-scale observational activities.
Satellite imager calibration teams are tasked with maintaining stable measurement records to facilitate reliable monitoring of geophysical parameters and ensure dependable input for weather forecast models. Satellite imagers are neither uniformly calibrated nor radiometrically scaled to a common reference. Consistent inter-calibration between various earth-orbiting satellite imager pairs is a critical step in the creation of seamless earth-scene reflectance data records over time for input to higher level algorithms that retrieve earth system climate-sensitive properties. Each imager inherently by virtue of its optics (and associated properties like Spectral Response etc.) will have a unique measurement of the same earth-scene reflected signal. A key part of this is the identification and prediction of events where the imager pairs from their respective earth-orbits view the same stable terrestrial targets with nearly identical viewing and solar geometry. Langley Automated Sensor Inter-calibration System (LASICS) will provide the Earth remote sensing community with a foundation for the harmonization of these remote sensing records by the development of an intuitive, user-friendly, interactive web-based open access service that will leverage, an existing extensive and ever-growing database of earth-imager channel spectral response functions, on-demand capabilities for computation and visualization of spectral band adjustment factors using a variety of external hyper-spectral earth observation sources (e.g. SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 for VIS and IASI, AIRS for IR) and a variety of Solar Irradiance Spectra.