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We propose Generalized Linear Models for understanding errors in SEE rate due to uncertainties in LET of the ion responsible for the event. Applications are suggested and assessed for suitability of treatment by the model.
Although most SEE rate estimation methods presume a fit to SEE cross section vs. LET, fitting SEE data is challenging because the data are not compatible with the assumptions of many common fitting techniques (e.g. linear regression. The difficulty of fitting such data is compounded when the LET of the ion responsible for an SEE is uncertain. We modify a Generalized Linear Model SEE data fitting methodology to accommodate uncertain LET and apply the method to the problem of backside heavy-ion SEE testing to demonstrate the utility of the method, explore the dependence of systematic errors that arise from improper treatment of LET uncertainty and develop guidelines for minimizing such systematic errors when proper treatment is not possible. Additional applications are suggested and assessed for suitability of treatment by the model.
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Repeated measurement will be a feature of the survey data collected during the Quesst missionX-59 community response tests (CRT). Since each participant will report his or her categorical level of annoyance in response to multiple events, the responses from any single individual may be correlated with one another. Several models within the class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are pertinent to the analysis of correlated categorical outcomes; the random intercept logistic regression model is one example. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods for fitting these models are available, with frequentist methods relying on some form of approximation (of either an integral or the integrand) that appears in the marginal likelihood function. Given several anticipated similarities of the X-59 CRT data to data collected during a past risk reduction, Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 (QSF18), this short note is intended to create awareness. It documents an instance in which a reported population average dose-response relationship derived from QSF18 single event data was distorted by the integral approximation applied in likelihood-based methods. We review some of the available literature on the topic, compare the outputs of several different computational approaches implemented in available statistical software, and present simple corrective actions that may be useful during the Quesst mission.
Background: The transmission of vectorborne infectious diseases is often influenced by environmental, meteorological and climatic parameters, because the vector life cycle depends on these factors. For example, the geophysical parameters relevant to malaria transmission include precipitation, surface temperature, humidity, elevation, and vegetation type. Because these parameters are routinely measured by satellites, remote sensing is an important technological tool for predicting, preventing, and containing a number of vectorborne infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue, West Nile virus, etc. Methods: A variety of NASA remote sensing data can be used for modeling vectorborne infectious disease transmission. We will discuss both the well known and less known remote sensing data, including Landsat, AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), EO-1 (Earth Observing One) ALI (Advanced Land Imager), and SIESIP (Seasonal to Interannual Earth Science Information Partner) dataset. Giovanni is a Web-based application developed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center. It provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data. After remote sensing data is obtained, a variety of techniques, including generalized linear models and artificial intelligence oriented methods, t 3 can be used to model the dependency of disease transmission on these parameters. Results: The processes of accessing, visualizing and utilizing precipitation data using Giovanni, and acquiring other data at additional websites are illustrated. Malaria incidence time series for some parts of Thailand and Indonesia are used to demonstrate that malaria incidences are reasonably well modeled with generalized linear models and artificial intelligence based techniques. Conclusions: Remote sensing data relevant to the transmission of vectorborne infectious diseases can be conveniently accessed at NASA and some other websites. These data are useful for vectorborne infectious disease surveillance and modeling.
Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.
Counts of a specific characteristic were obtained within regions defined on an object that was manufactured in a proprietary setting. The count regions were altered during production and resulted in misaligned or overlapping count data. A closed-formula maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the new region means is derived using all of the available count data and an independent Poisson model. The MLE is shown to be preferable to estimators constructed using generalized linear models for the overlapping data setting. This closed-form estimator extends to over-dispersed overlapping count data as the quasi-MLE and also performs well with correlated overlapping count data. Standard errors for the estimator are approximated and are validated with a simulation study. Additionally, the methods are extended to overlapping multinomial data. Illustrative examples of the methods are provided throughout the paper and are reproducible with the supplemental R code. Additionally, proofs of the paper’s results are also included in the supplemental material.
Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.
Shared mooring systems, where adjacent platforms are tethered directly to each other, can reduce anchor quantities and mooring line lengths in a floating array but also introduce new modeling and design challenges. This paper presents and demonstrates a first-order approach to modeling and designing shared mooring systems that simplifies these challenges. We formulate a general, linearized model for the force-displacement response of shared mooring systems, including inter-platform couplings. Using this linearization, we realize significant simplifications to the shared mooring system design problem and propose a corresponding design optimization approach. Finally, we demonstrate the complete approach on a variety of shared-mooring floating wind farm layouts with generic design assumptions and constraints. Some fundamental observations about shared mooring systems can be made from the results. Polygonal array layouts with perpendicular anchor positions appear to maximize shared mooring system efficiency. Also, arrays with greater levels of sharing tend to exhibit larger deviations in offsets between platforms. Overall, the results show how the linearized approach can be applied to efficiently evaluate and systematically optimize preliminary shared mooring system designs.
This study quantified and compared the cross-sectional and longitudinal influence of age, self-report physical activity (SR-PA), and body composition (%fat) on the decline of maximal aerobic power (VO2peak). The cross-sectional sample consisted of 1,499 healthy men ages 25-70 yr. The 156 men of the longitudinal sample were from the same population and examined twice, the mean time between tests was 4.1 (+/- 1.2) yr. Peak oxygen uptake was determined by indirect calorimetry during a maximal treadmill exercise test. The zero-order correlations between VO2peak and %fat (r = -0.62) and SR-PA (r = 0.58) were significantly (P < 0.05) higher that the age correlation (r = -0.45). Linear regression defined the cross-sectional age-related decline in VO2peak at 0.46 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Multiple regression analysis (R = 0.79) showed that nearly 50% of this cross-sectional decline was due to %fat and SR-PA, adding these lifestyle variables to the multiple regression model reduced the age regression weight to -0.26 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Statistically controlling for time differences between tests, general linear models analysis showed that longitudinal changes in aerobic power were due to independent changes in %fat and SR-PA, confirming the cross-sectional results.
To facilitate analysis, ALS systems are often assumed to be linear and time invariant, but they usually have important nonlinear and dynamic aspects. Nonlinear dynamic behavior can be caused by time varying inputs, changes in system parameters, nonlinear system functions, closed loop feedback delays, and limits on buffer storage or processing rates. Dynamic models are usually cataloged according to the number of state variables. The simplest dynamic models are linear, using only integration, multiplication, addition, and subtraction of the state variables. A general linear model with only two state variables can produce all the possible dynamic behavior of linear systems with many state variables, including stability, oscillation, or exponential growth and decay. Linear systems can be described using mathematical analysis. Nonlinear dynamics can be fully explored only by computer simulations of models. Unexpected behavior is produced by simple models having only two or three state variables with simple mathematical relations between them. Closed loop feedback delays are a major source of system instability. Exceeding limits on buffer storage or processing rates forces systems to change operating mode. Different equilibrium points may be reached from different initial conditions. Instead of one stable equilibrium point, the system may have several equilibrium points, oscillate at different frequencies, or even behave chaotically, depending on the system inputs and initial conditions. The frequency spectrum of an output oscillation may contain harmonics and the sums and differences of input frequencies, but it may also contain a stable limit cycle oscillation not related to input frequencies. We must investigate the nonlinear dynamic aspects of advanced life support systems to understand and counter undesirable behavior.
This study quantified and compared the cross-sectional and longitudinal influence of age, self-report physical activity (SR-PA), and body composition (%fat) on the decline of maximal aerobic power (VO2peak) of women. The cross-sectional sample consisted of 409 healthy women, ages 20-64 yr. The 43 women of the longitudinal sample were from the same population and examined twice, the mean time between tests was 3.7 (+/-2.2) yr. Peak oxygen uptake was determined by indirect calorimetry during a maximal treadmill test. The zero-order correlation of -0.742 between VO2peak and %fat was significantly (P < 0.05) higher then the SR-PA (r = 0.626) and age correlations (r = -0.633). Linear regression defined the cross-sectional age-related decline in VO2peak at 0.537 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Multiple regression analysis (R = 0.851) showed that adding %fat and SR-PA and their interaction to the regression model reduced the age regression weight of -0.537, to -0.265 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Statistically controlling for time differences between tests, general linear models analysis showed that longitudinal changes in aerobic power were due to independent changes in %fat and SR-PA, confirming the cross-sectional results. These findings are consistent with men's data from the same lab showing that about 50% of the cross-sectional age-related decline in VO2peak was due to %fat and SR-PA.
We analyze the local field of stellar tangential velocities for a sample of 42,339 nonbinary Hipparcos stars with accurate parallaxes, using a vector spherical harmonic formalism. We derive simple relations between the parameters of the classical linear model (Ogorodnikov-Milne) of the local systemic field and low-degree terms of the general vector harmonic decomposition. Taking advantage of these relationships, we determine the solar velocity with respect to the local stars of (V(sub X), V(sub Y), V(sub Z)) (10.5, 18.5, 7.3) +/- 0.1 km s(exp -1) not corrected for the asymmetric drift with respect to the local standard of rest. If only stars more distant than 100 pc are considered, the peculiar solar motion is (V(sub X), V(sub Y), V(sub Z)) (9.9, 15.6, 6.9) +/- 0.2 km s(exp -1). The adverse effects of harmonic leakage, which occurs between the reflex solar motion represented by the three electric vector harmonics in the velocity space and higher degree harmonics in the proper-motion space, are eliminated in our analysis by direct subtraction of the reflex solar velocity in its tangential components for each star. The Oort parameters determined by a straightforward least-squares adjustment in vector spherical harmonics are A=14.0 +/- 1.4, B=13.1 +/- 1.2, K=1.1 +/- 1.8, and C=2.9 +/- 1.4 km s(exp -1) kpc(exp -1). The physical meaning and the implications of these parameters are discussed in the framework of a general linear model of the velocity field. We find a few statistically significant higher degree harmonic terms that do not correspond to any parameters in the classical linear model. One of them, a third-degree electric harmonic, is tentatively explained as the response to a negative linear gradient of rotation velocity with distance from the Galactic plane, which we estimate at approximately -20 km s(exp -1) kpc(exp -1). A similar vertical gradient of rotation velocity has been detected for more distant stars representing the thick disk (z greater than 1 kpc), but here we surmise its existence in the thin disk at z less than 200 pc. The most unexpected and unexplained term within the Ogorodnikov-Milne model is the first-degree magnetic harmonic, representing a rigid rotation of the stellar field about the axis -Y pointing opposite to the direction of rotation. This harmonic comes out with a statistically robust coefficient of 6.2 +/- 0.9 km s(exp -1) kpc(exp -1) and is also present in the velocity field of more distant stars. The ensuing upward vertical motion of stars in the general direction of the Galactic center and the downward motion in the anticenter direction are opposite to the vector field expected from the stationary Galactic warp model.
Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.
Shelters are critical for many species as protection from predators and extreme temperatures. Successful conservation of reptiles requires understanding both shelter site requirements and availability. The Eastern Indigo Snake (EIS) is endemic to the southeastern United States and is federally listed. Recovery has focused on maximizing unfragmented landscapes, with less attention on fine-scale features such as shelter sites. In the northern EIS range, Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) burrows are used extensively for shelter. Although EIS in peninsular Florida often shelter in tortoise burrows, they also use other shelters where tortoise burrows are scarce or absent. Solely focusing EIS survey and management efforts where Gopher Tortoises are present may overlook occupied habitats and misallocate resources. We investigated the importance of different shelter sites in central Florida using data from radio-tracked EIS. We modeled the use of shelter categories as a function of sex, season, and habitat using Bayesian multinomial generalized linear models. Results showed that EIS in peninsular Florida used Gopher Tortoise burrows across all seasons and habitats. Tortoise burrow use was highest in xeric habitats and lowest in mesic habitats where burrows are most and least abundant, respectively. There was less variability in shelter site use in disturbed habitats and flatwoods. Cool season tortoise burrow use across sexes and habitats in our study was much lower than in southern Georgia. Our results indicate that EIS are less dependent on Gopher Tortoise burrows in peninsular Florida and that suitable habitats with few or no tortoise burrows could still provide conservation value for EIS.
Using a published atlas of reflectance curves and physicochemical properties of soils, a statistical analysis was carried out. Reflectance bands which correspond to five of the wavebands used by NASA's Thematic Mapper were examined for relationships to specific soil properties. The properties considered in this study include: Sand Content, Silt Content, Clay Content, Organic Matter Content, Cation Exchange Capacity, Iron Oxide Content and Moisture Content. Regression of these seven properties on the mean values of five TM bands produced results that indicate that the predictability of the properties can be increased by stratifying the data. The data was stratified by parent material, taxonomic order, temperature zone, moisture zone and climate (combined temperature and moisture). The best results were obtained when the sample was examined by climatic classes. The middle Infra-red bands, 5 and 7, as well as the visible bands, 2 and 3, are significant in the model. The near Infra-red band, band 4, is almost as useful and should be included in any studies. General linear modeling procedures examined relationships of the seven properties with certain wavebands in the stratified samples.
The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fatigue due to sleep disruption is a condition that could lead to operational errors, potentially resulting in loss of mission or crew. Pharmacological consumables are mitigation strategies used to manage the risks associated with sleep deficits. The likelihood of medical intervention due to sleep disruption was estimated with a well validated sleep model and a Monte Carlo computer simulation in an effort to optimize the quantity of consumables. METHODS: The key components of the model are the mission parameter program, the calculation of sleep intensity and the diagnosis and decision module. The mission parameter program was used to create simulated daily sleep/wake schedules for an ISS increment. The hypothetical schedules included critical events such as dockings and extravehicular activities and included actual sleep time and sleep quality. The schedules were used as inputs to the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue and Task Effectiveness (SAFTE) Model (IBR Inc., Baltimore MD), which calculated sleep intensity. Sleep data from an ISS study was used to relate calculated sleep intensity to the probability of sleep medication use, using a generalized linear model for binomial regression. A human yes/no decision process using a binomial random number was also factored into sleep medication use probability. RESULTS: These probability calculations were repeated 5000 times resulting in an estimate of the most likely amount of sleep aids used during an ISS mission and a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: These results were transferred to the parent IMM for further weighting and integration with other medical conditions, to help inform operational decisions. This model is a potential planning tool for ensuring adequate sleep during sleep disrupted periods of a mission.