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Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

NASA’s Exploration and In-Space Services (NExIS) Division OSAM-1 Propellant Transfer Subsystem Progress through FY 2024

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration and In-Space Services (NExIS) Division of Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has been developing technology to robotically refuel both heritage and recently developed satellites on-orbit funded through NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD). The On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing 1 (OSAM-1) mission, formerly known as Restore-L, developed a system to refuel a satellite in space and assemble a communications antenna. By demonstrating these capabilities, the mission would advance never-before tested technologies for use in future missions (by NASA, other government organizations, and private industries). The purpose of this paper is to capture the lessons learned from the hardware development of the OSAM-1 Propellant Transfer System (PTS) that are highly relevant for the ISAM community. This paper covers a review of in-space servicing extensibility and critical technologies that were being developed within NExIS, focusing on the fluid transfer refueling technology within the framework of the OSAM-1 PTS. An overview of the technology demonstration servicing mission via the OSAM-1 Space Vehicle is provided as an extension of the technology development progress reported in 2018, 2019 and 2020. The general objectives, challenges, and key technologies are presented as an introduction to the context of the OSAM-1 mission, and a precursor to the OSAM-1 PTS specific development status. Final assembly, qualification, and functional tests along with installation and acceptance testing of the Hose Management Assembly (HMA) and Propellant Transfer Assembly (PTA) are discussed. Technology development, challenges, lessons learned, along with installation and testing results are discussed, with particular focus on the OSAM-1 assemblies including the PTA and HMA. In addition, testing utilizing the integrated flight simulator test setups will be summarized. The OSAM-1 PTS made great strides in advancing in-space refueling technology; however, there are unfinished development efforts remaining. This paper concludes with a brief summary of the technology shortfalls (gaps) that remain in the key areas of in-space fluid transfer.

ISAM

A Dynamic PCA and Machine Learning Tool for Automated Identification of Solar Wind Disturbances Impacting Earth’s Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere is continuously impacted by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturbances, such as shocks, discontinuities, magnetic clouds and more. Understanding how such disturbances propagate from the Sun and what is their impact on the different magnetospheric domains is key to understanding and forecasting energy transfer from the solar wind to Earth. The large number of overlapping solar wind and magnetospheric missions carrying magnetometers and the recent advances in communications and data storage technologies have enabled an unprecedented quantity of high-fidelity magnetic field data captured by in-situ spacecraft to be available at the click of a button. However, this massive quantity of available data can prove unwieldy for researchers, limiting the identification of interesting phenomena and disturbances to a relatively small percentage of the total dataset. Several techniques have been previously developed for automated identification of specific types of magnetic anomalies, but these methods are typically mission-specific and can be difficult to generalize. We present initial results for a generic method of automated anomaly detection in magnetic field measurements based on dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering via machine learning. The benefit of our technique is its high degree of generalizability and flexibility which make it a most useful data survey tool for a wide range of magnetic field datasets. This method can also be applied simultaneously to other observed time-series properties like plasma density, pressure, and velocity for more accurate event identification. Additionally, the application of this method to data captured by multiple spacecraft enables the simultaneous identification of disturbances and the determination of their propagation characteristics. Initial evaluation of this technique has been performed using data from Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) and THEMIS-ARTEMIS missions, providing a testbed scenario for the future Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES) platform instruments that will measure solar wind and IMF properties from lunar orbit onboard the Gateway station.

Miguel Martinez-Ledesma

A Dynamic PCA and Machine Learning Tool for Automated Identification of Solar Wind Disturbances Impacting Earth’s Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere is continuously impacted by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturbances, such as shocks, discontinuities, magnetic clouds and more. Understanding how such disturbances propagate from the Sun and what is their impact on the different magnetospheric domains is key to understanding and forecasting energy transfer from the solar wind to Earth. The large number of overlapping solar wind and magnetospheric missions carrying magnetometers and the recent advances in communications and data storage technologies have enabled an unprecedented quantity of high-fidelity magnetic field data captured by in-situ spacecraft to be available at the click of a button. However, this massive quantity of available data can prove unwieldy for researchers, limiting the identification of interesting phenomena and disturbances to a relatively small percentage of the total dataset. Several techniques have been previously developed for automated identification of specific types of magnetic anomalies, but these methods are typically mission-specific and can be difficult to generalize. We present initial results for a generic method of automated anomaly detection in magnetic field measurements based on dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering via machine learning. The benefit of our technique is its high degree of generalizability and flexibility which make it a most useful data survey tool for a wide range of magnetic field datasets. This method can also be applied simultaneously to other observed time-series properties like plasma density, pressure, and velocity for more accurate event identification. Additionally, the application of this method to data captured by multiple spacecraft enables the simultaneous identification of disturbances and the determination of their propagation characteristics. Initial evaluation of this technique has been performed using data from Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) and THEMIS-ARTEMIS missions, providing a testbed scenario for the future Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES) platform instruments that will measure solar wind and IMF properties from lunar orbit onboard the Gateway station.

Miguel Martinez-Ledesma

Fermilab s Transition to Token Authentication

Fermilab is the first High Energy Physics institution to transition from X.509 user certificates to authentication tokens in production systems. All of the experiments that Fermilab hosts are now using JSON Web Token (JWT) access tokens in their grid jobs. Many software components have been either updated or created for this transition, and most of the software is available to others as open source. The tokens are defined using the WLCG Common JWT Profile. Token attributes for all the tokens are stored in the Fermilab FERRY system which generates the configuration for the CILogon token issuer. High security-value refresh tokens are stored in Hashicorp Vault configured by htvault-config, and JWT access tokens are requested by the htgettoken client through its integration with HTCondor. The Fermilab job submission system jobsub was redesigned to be a lightweight wrapper around HTCondor. For automated job submissions a managed tokens service was created to reduce duplication of effort and knowledge of how to securely keep tokens active. The existing Fermilab file transfer tool ifdh was updated to work seamlessly with tokens, as well as the Fermilab POMS (Production Operations Management System) which is used to manage automatic job submission and the RCDS (Rapid Code Distribution System) which is used to distribute analysis code via the CernVM FileSystem. The dCache storage system was reconfigured to accept tokens for authentication in place of X.509 proxy certificates. As some services and sites have not yet implemented token support, proxy certificates are still sent with jobs for backwards compatibility but some experiments are beginning to transition to stop using them. There have been some glitches and learning curve issues but in general the system has been performing well and is being improved as operational problems are addressed.

Dykstra, David

From diamond to BC8 to simple cubic and back: Kinetic pathways to post-diamond carbon phases from metadynamics

Understanding the kinetic pathways connecting carbon polymorphs at multimegabar pressures remains a major unsolved problem in high-pressure physics. Here, we provide insights into the long-standing question of BC8 formation and stability by combining a state-of-the-art SNAP machine-learning interatomic potential with enhanced sampling via metadynamics, enabling direct access to transition mechanisms far beyond the reach of standard molecular dynamics. Our simulations show that carbon phase transformations are intrinsically complex, proceeding through multiple intermediate disordered and crystalline states governed by nontrivial kinetic ordering. We determine the upper pressure limit for BC8 formation and reveal that hexagonal diamond transforms to BC8 faster than cubic diamond—an unexpected and experimentally testable prediction. We also identify a 𝑃⁢222 carbon phase that becomes competitive with diamond and simple cubic above 1.8 TPa, and we demonstrate that BC8 may be quenched to ambient conditions at moderate temperatures. Altogether, these results establish a general and transferable framework for resolving kinetic pathways in solid-solid phase transitions and provide physical insights into carbon's complex high-pressure landscape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Onboard Hyperspectral Image Classification via Transfer Learning for Communication-Limited Spacecraft

Employing deep-learning and artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques onboard spacecraft can dramatically improve priority data selection to ensure more effective use of the available downlink. However, deployment of effective deep-learning models requires significant training on the ground, which may not be feasible, due to limited data available in an unexplored environment. Therefore, this research explores building robust classification models for onboard data processing where training data is highly limited using transfer-learning techniques. In this paper, we focus on the use case of hyperspectral imaging for remote sensing, a domain where the high dimensionality of the data from the sensor can rapidly saturate the downlink bandwidth. With this bottleneck, there is an impending need to autonomously and robustly classify data onboard to optimize downlink of high-impact measurements, thus maximizing the scientific utility per bit transmitted to the ground. This paper examines the use of deep neural networks onboard for hyperspectral image classification in a communication-limited scenario to analyze how the models perform with limited training data. The use of transfer learning can ameliorate the issue of poor generalization by transferring features learned from training on a large source dataset for one classification task to the target classification task with limited training data. For two deep-learning models from literature, we compare the accuracy of the models trained using transfer learning to models trained from scratch using a random weight initialization with varying amounts of training data. We demonstrate the feasibility and performance of running inference of the deep-learning models on representative flight-like hardware.

Advanced Avionics, Machine Learning, Data Processi

Influence of Solutocapillary Convection on Macrovoid Defect Formation in Polymeric Membranes

Macrovoids (MVs) are large (10-50 micrometers) pores often found in polymeric membranes prepared via phase-inversion techniques. They are generally considered undesirable, as they adversely affect the permeability properties and performance of polymeric membranes for microfiltration, ultrafiltration, and reverse osmosis. However, MVs can be useful in certain thin-film applications in which vapor transmission is necessary, or for use as reservoirs for enzymes or liquid membrane material. If more could be learned about the nature and causes of MV formation, it might be possible to devise techniques to control and/or prevent MV formation that are more effective than those currently employed. Two hypotheses for the MV growth mechanism have been advanced. Reuvers proposed that once initiated, MV growth can be attributed to diffusion of (primarily) solvent to the MV nuclei. Because this mechanism does not involve gross movement of the MV, the presence or absence of body forces such as buoyancy should not significantly affect MV growth. On the other hand, Shojaie et al. proposed that solutocapillary convection induced by a steep surface-tension gradient along the MV/bulk solution interface enhances mass transfer to the growing MV. This interfacial convection exerts a force that pulls the growing MV downward into the casting solution. Both buoyancy and viscous drag hinder MV growth by inhibiting this motion. Thus, removing the buoyancy force by casting in microgravity should augment MV growth according to this hypothesis. Whereas neither surface tension nor gravity has a significant effect on MV growth according to the first hypothesis, buoyancy forces should be important if the second hypothesis is correct. The overall goal of this research is to test these two hypotheses in order to improve our understanding of the MV growth processing solvent-cast polymeric membranes. Studying MV growth in low-gravity conditions is pivotal to our ability to discriminate between these two hypotheses.

Pekny, M. R.

Advances in Hyperspectral Image Classification Methods for Vegetation and Agricultural Cropland Studies

Hyperspectral data are becoming more widely available via sensors on airborne and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, as well as proximal platforms. While space-based hyperspectral data continue to be limited in availability, multiple spaceborne Earth-observing missions on traditional platforms are scheduled for launch, and companies are experimenting with small satellites for constellations to observe the Earth, as well as for planetary missions. Land cover mapping via classification is one of the most important applications of hyperspectral remote sensing and will increase in significance as time series of imagery are more readily available. However, while the narrow bands of hyperspectral data provide new opportunities for chemistry-based modeling and mapping, challenges remain. Hyperspectral data are high dimensional, and many bands are highly correlated or irrelevant for a given classification problem. For supervised classification methods, the quantity of training data is typically limited relative to the dimension of the input space. The resulting Hughes phenomenon, often referred to as the curse of dimensionality, increases potential for unstable parameter estimates, overfitting, and poor generalization of classifiers. This is particularly problematic for parametric approaches such as Gaussian maximum likelihood–based classifiers that have been the backbone of pixel-based multispectral classification methods. This issue has motivated investigation of alternatives, including regularization of the class covariance matrices, ensembles of weak classifiers, development of feature selection and extraction methods, adoption of nonparametric classifiers, and exploration of methods to exploit unlabeled samples via semi-supervised and active learning. Data sets are also quite large, motivating computationally efficient algorithms and implementations. This chapter provides an overview of the recent advances in classification methods for mapping vegetation using hyperspectral data. Three data sets that are used in the hyperspectral classification literature (e.g., Botswana Hyperion satellite data and AVIRIS airborne data over both Kennedy Space Center and Indian Pines) are described in Section 3.2 and used to illustrate methods described in the chapter. An additional high-resolution hyperspectral data set acquired by a SpecTIR sensor on an airborne platform over the Indian Pines area is included to exemplify the use of new deep learning approaches, and a multiplatform example of airborne hyperspectral data is provided to demonstrate transfer learning in hyperspectral image classification. Classical approaches for supervised and unsupervised feature selection and extraction are reviewed in Section 3.3. In particular, nonlinearities exhibited in hyperspectral imagery have motivated development of nonlinear feature extraction methods in manifold learning, which are outlined in Section 3.3.1.4. Spatial context is also important in classification of both natural vegetation with complex textural patterns and large agricultural fields with significant local variability within fields. Approaches to exploit spatial features at both the pixel level (e.g., co-occurrence–based texture and extended morphological attribute profiles [EMAPs]) and integration of segmentation approaches (e.g., HSeg) are discussed in this context in Section 3.3.2. Recently, classification methods that leverage nonparametric methods originating in the machine learning community have grown in popularity. An overview of both widely used and newly emerging approaches, including support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian mixture models, and deep learning based on convolutional neural networks is provided in Section 3.4. Strategies to exploit unlabeled samples, including active learning and metric learning, which combine feature extraction and augmentation of the pool of training samples in an active learning framework, are outlined in Section 3.5. Integration of image segmentation with classification to accommodate spatial coherence typically observed in vegetation is also explored, including as an integrated active learning system. Exploitation of multisensor strategies for augmenting the pool of training samples is investigated via a transfer learning framework in Section 3.5.1.2. Finally, we look to the future, considering opportunities soon to be provided by new paradigms, as hyperspectral sensing is becoming common at multiple scales from ground-based and airborne autonomous vehicles to manned aircraft and space-based platforms.

Pasolli, Edoardo

Increasing Cognitive Ability/Reserve Using Software – Pilot (ICARUS-Pilot)

BACKGROUND This research study was competitively awarded under the 2022 JSC Innovation Charge Account (ICA) program administered by NASA Johnson Space Center’s Joint Technology Working Group. Study period of performance was May through September 2022, with a maximum allowed procurement budget of $10K. The study sought to quantify and assess the potential benefit of using commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) cognitive training software to improve cognitive performance in an astronaut-like terrestrial population. METHODS Five volunteer research participants were recruited from the JSC employee population to mimic certain demographic characteristics of the NASA astronaut population (age, education/discipline). Participant cognitive performance was assessed before and after executing eighteen sessions of remote cognitive training executed nominally three times per week using six exercises within an adaptive app-based COTS software package (BrainHQ, Posit Science) on study-provided tablets. Pre- and post-training cognitive performance was measured using internal assessments in BrainHQ as well as Cognition Test Battery (CTB) version ISS B01 v3 (3.0.9-201710021500), an independent software test developed specifically for NASA and used currently in research studies on astronauts. BrainHQ exercises were posited to map well or partially to several CTB sub-tests. Participants provided feedback on their study experience formally via semi-structured interview at the conclusion of testing and informally throughout the study if they encountered issues. RESULTS The enrolled ICARUS-Pilot study participants generally matched Artemis crew demographic characteristics. Four of five participants have completed study training and assessment activities as of the writing of this abstract. These test participants complied well with desired training session frequency and duration yielding an average cumulative active training duration of 15 hours over an average of 45 days; participants showed 78% average improvement in metric performance for the six trained exercises, with an associated overall 33%ile ranking increase against performance of the entire BrainHQ subscribing population for internal pre/post assessment, agreeing with post-study survey self-reported performance increases. CTB overall feedback scoring, not corrected for learning effects, showed an average of 19% performance improvement across its 10 performance measures over the training period for the completed participants. Detailed analyses will be conducted once participant data collection for the study is complete and the resulting dataset is fully populated. DISCUSSION These preliminary results provide a positive trend for the effectiveness of the training approach, but further analysis will be needed to establish significance, investigate far transfer, and suggest the needed participant pool size for subsequent efforts to achieve statistically significant outcomes given similar results. The pilot study has already been helpful by allowing the study team to learn a great deal about the capabilities and limitations of the COTS software package that will be reflected in future proposals along with revised timelines for study execution and test participant management. From participant feedback, one common thread regarding the COTS training was that it felt overly repetitive – future proposals should reassess overall training duration, available levels for each trained exercise, and the behavior of the BrainHQ internal scheduler in determining which exercises should be trained and for how long. If the final analysis of this feasibility study ultimately supports it, the study team will recommend further investigation to fully evaluate this potential countermeasure and optimize its implementation. Future proposals would cite this feasibility study’s outcome and would seek to refine the training protocol and obtain statistically significant results for cognitive performance increases as well as retention data.

cognitive training

Increasing Cognitive Ability/Reserve Using Software – Pilot (ICARUS-Pilot)

Background: This research study was competitively awarded under the 2022 JSC Innovation Charge Account (ICA) program administered by NASA Johnson Space Center’s Joint Technology Working Group. Study period of performance was May through September 2022, with a maximum allowed procurement budget of $10K. The study sought to quantify and assess the potential benefit of using commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) cognitive training software to improve cognitive performance in an astronaut-like terrestrial population. Methods: Five volunteer research participants were recruited from the JSC employee population to mimic certain demographic characteristics of the NASA astronaut population (age, education/discipline). Participant cognitive performance was assessed before and after executing eighteen sessions of remote cognitive training executed nominally three times per week using six exercises within an adaptive app-based COTS software package (BrainHQ, Posit Science) on study-provided tablets. Pre- and post-training cognitive performance was measured using internal assessments in BrainHQ as well as Cognition Test Battery (CTB) version ISS B01 v3 (3.0.9-201710021500), an independent software test developed specifically for NASA and used currently in research studies on astronauts. BrainHQ exercises were posited to map well or partially to several CTB sub-tests. Participants provided feedback on their study experience formally via semi-structured interview at the conclusion of testing and informally throughout the study if they encountered issues. Results: The enrolled ICARUS-Pilot study participants generally matched Artemis crew demographic characteristics. Four of five participants have completed study training and assessment activities as of the writing of this abstract. These test participants complied well with desired training session frequency and duration yielding an average cumulative active training duration of 15 hours over an average of 45 days; participants showed 78% average improvement in metric performance for the six trained exercises, with an associated overall 33%ile ranking increase against performance of the entire BrainHQ subscribing population for internal pre/post assessment, agreeing with post-study survey self-reported performance increases. CTB overall feedback scoring, not corrected for learning effects, showed an average of 19% performance improvement across its 10 performance measures over the training period for the completed participants. Detailed analyses will be conducted once participant data collection for the study is complete and the resulting dataset is fully populated. Discussion: These preliminary results provide a positive trend for the effectiveness of the training approach, but further analysis will be needed to establish significance, investigate far transfer, and suggest the needed participant pool size for subsequent efforts to achieve statistically significant outcomes given similar results. The pilot study has already been helpful by allowing the study team to learn a great deal about the capabilities and limitations of the COTS software package that will be reflected in future proposals along with revised timelines for study execution and test participant management. From participant feedback, one common thread regarding the COTS training was that it felt overly repetitive – future proposals should reassess overall training duration, available levels for each trained exercise, and the behavior of the BrainHQ internal scheduler in determining which exercises should be trained and for how long. If the final analysis of this feasibility study ultimately supports it, the study team will recommend further investigation to fully evaluate this potential countermeasure and optimize its implementation. Future proposals would cite this feasibility study’s outcome and would seek to refine the training protocol and obtain statistically significant results for cognitive performance increases as well as retention data.

cognitive training

Unifying Combinatorial and Graphical Methods in Artificial Intelligence

Recently, a new graph Laplacian, called the inner product Laplacian, was introduced which generalizes many existing Laplacians, including the normalized and combinatorial Laplacian and their weighted variants. The key observation behind the inner product Laplacian is that by defining appropriate inner product spaces on the vertices and edges, the standard Laplacians can be recovered as Hodge Laplacians over the simplicial complex formed by the edges and vertices. These inner product spaces form a natural way to incorporate non-combinatorial information into the definition of a domain-specific Laplacian. In particular, in contrast to current domain-specific weighting schemes which rely solely on edge weights, information regarding the similarity of non-adjacent vertices and arbitrary pairs of edges can be effectively incorporated into the Laplacian. In order to illustrate this approach we consider the problem of calculating the potential energy of an atomistic configuration using Graph Neural Networks. In comparison with start-of-the-art approaches, such as SchNet, our approach replaces a learned (via auto-encoder) representation of the atom types with an inner product space on atoms based on scientific knowledge (e.g., electronegativity). We will illustrate how this approach captures key chemical properties of the molecules and compare the energy calculations with state-of-the-art neural network approaches. However, to compute the resulting Laplacian involves a mixture of sparse and dense matrix computation and yields a dense matrix as the basis for the graph convolution. This dense convolutional kernel necessitates moving away from the standard message passing framework for graph neural networks and increases the computational cost of applying the kernel. In order to mitigate these costs we investigate means of leveraging the mixed sparse and dense computations to reduce the overall computational cost and how these approaches can be automatically transferred to energy efficient hardware (e.g., field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs)).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI

Deployment of Traditional and Hybrid Machine Learning for Critical Heat Flux Prediction in the CTF Thermal-Hydraulics Code

Critical heat flux (CHF) marks the transition from nucleate to film boiling, where heat transfer to the working fluid can rapidly deteriorate. Accurate CHF prediction is essential for efficiency, safety, and preventing equipment damage, particularly in nuclear reactors. Although widely used, empirical correlations frequently exhibit discrepancies when compared to experimental data, limiting their reliability in diverse operational conditions. Traditional machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated potential for CHF prediction but often suffer from limited interpretability, data scarcity, and insufficient knowledge of physical principles. Hybrid model approaches, which combine data-driven ML with base models, mitigate these concerns by incorporating prior knowledge of the domain. This study integrates an externally trained purely data-driven ML model and two hybrid models (using the Biasi and Bowring CHF correlations) within the CTF subchannel code via a custom Fortran framework. Performance was evaluated using two validation cases: a subset of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CHF database and the Bennett dryout experiments. In both cases, the hybrid models demonstrated significantly lower error metrics compared to conventional empirical correlations, with the best models often reducing relative error by about 5 percentage points. The pure ML model achieved comparable accuracy, outperforming the hybrid Biasi model in the NRC test case (3.3% versus 5.5% relative error) but exhibiting slightly higher error against the hybrid Bowring model in the Bennett test case (7.7% versus 6.1%). Trend analysis of error parity indicated that ML-based models reduced the tendency for CHF overprediction, improving overall accuracy. These results demonstrate that ML-based CHF models can be effectively integrated into subchannel codes and could potentially increase performance compared to conventional methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS