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DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian FLOWERS: Wind-rose-based analytical integration of Gaussian wake model for extremely fast AEP estimation

A major cost in the study of wind farm layout optimization is the repeated evaluation of the annual energy production (AEP). The current approach to estimating AEP requires a large set of flow simulations to be performed that cover each discrete wind speed and direction combination contained within the wind rose, followed by a probability-weighted sum of the power production resulting from each simulation. Even with inexpensive engineering wake models, this numerical integration scheme can lead to high computational costs. In this paper, we derive an analytical formulation for estimating farm AEP across every wind direction, based on a Gaussian wake velocity model, which reduces the number of wind farm simulations to a single function evaluation. As a result, we find that the Gaussian-FLOWERS approach reduces the time for AEP calculations by more than two orders of magnitude with a small trade-off in accuracy when compared to a conventional approach. This massive reduction in computation cost is useful to reduce overall costs in wind farm layout optimization studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decoherence dynamics in molecular qubits: Exponential, Gaussian and beyond

In this article, we examine how the structure of system–bath interactions can determine commonly encountered temporal decoherence patterns, such as Gaussian and exponential decay, in molecular and other qubits coupled to a thermal bosonic bath. The analysis, based on a pure dephasing picture that admits analytical treatment, shows that decoherence, in general, is neither purely Gaussian nor exponential but rather the exponential of oscillatory functions, with periods determined by the bath’s frequencies. For initially unentangled qubit-bath states, Gaussian decay is always present at early times. It becomes increasingly dominant with increasing temperature, qubit–bath interaction strength, and bath correlation time. Initial system–bath entanglement that arises due to displacement in the position of the bath states preserves the Gaussian decay. By contrast, strict exponential decay arises only in very specific models that we isolate. However, it becomes dominant for times longer than the bath correlation time or for early times when there is initial entanglement due to momentum displacement of the bath states. For molecular electronic decoherence, the long-time exponential regime plays a limited role as it emerges after most coherence is lost. Thus, the Gaussian decay provides a more suitable (albeit imperfect) model of such decoherence. Furthermore, we discuss the connection between electronic decoherence dynamics and electronic spectroscopic line shape theory, where Gaussian spectral peaks correspond to Gaussian coherence decay and Lorentzian peaks correspond to exponential coherence decay. We find that Gaussian spectral peaks, usually associated with inhomogeneous broadening, can emerge from the entangling unitary system–bath dynamics even when there is no inhomogeneity in the initial conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Complexity of Non-Gaussian Many-Body Systems with Dissipation

We characterize the dynamical state of many-body bosonic and fermionic many-body models with intersite Gaussian couplings, on-site non-Gaussian interactions, and local dissipation comprising incoherent particle loss, particle gain, and dephasing. We first establish that, for fermionic systems, if the dephasing noise is larger than the non-Gaussian interactions, irrespective of the Gaussian coupling strength, the system state is a convex combination of Gaussian states at all times. Furthermore, for bosonic systems, we show that if the particle loss and particle gain rates are larger than the Gaussian intersite couplings, the system remains in a separable state at all times. Building on this characterization, we establish that at noise rates above a threshold, there exists a classical algorithm that can efficiently sample from the system state of both the fermionic and bosonic models. Finally, we show that, unlike fermionic systems, bosonic systems can evolve into states that are not convex Gaussian even when the dissipation is much higher than the on-site non-Gaussianity. Similarly, unlike bosonic systems, fermionic systems can generate entanglement even with noise rates much larger than the intersite couplings.

Computational complexity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of super-Gaussian electron distributions on plasma K-shell emission

Electron distributions in laser-produced plasmas will be driven toward a super-Gaussian distribution due to inverse bremsstrahlung absorption [Langdon, Phys. Rev. Lett. 44, 575 (1980)]. Both theoretical and experimental evidence suggest that fundamental plasma properties are altered by the super-Gaussian distribution. Here, this paper examines how the super-Gaussian distribution affects the ionization balance and K-shell emission of atomic plasmas, utilizing approximate formulas and detailed collisional-radiative simulations. While the impact on plasma ionization is small, K-shell spectra can be significantly modified. Based on these findings, we demonstrate that K-shell spectroscopy can be used to infer super-Gaussian or other similar nonequilibrium electron distributions.

Atomic spectra↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian D‐Optimal Designs for Gaussian Process Surrogate Models

Computer experiments often employ space-filling strategies to create surrogate models with strong predictive performance. The impact of model parameter estimation for Gaussian process surrogates, however, is often overlooked. Obtaining a better initial estimate of the covariance lengthscale parameter, θ, can greatly improve the resulting Gaussian process fit through more effective sequential acquisitions during active learning. In this work, we propose a novel initial design maximizing the Bayesian D-optimality criterion of the Gaussian process lengthscale parameter. Previously published results have shown the emphasis on lengthscale estimation to be promising, but relied on an empirically driven design creation process. Our Bayesian D-optimal designs are rooted in information theory and lead to more informative sequential acquisitions by improving lengthscale estimation. In many cases, these gains eventually result in better surrogates than those seeded with space-filling initial designs. Furthermore, Bayesian D-optimal designs can be tailored to either isotropic or anisotropic covariance structures, and the Bayesian framework enables the inclusion of prior knowledge in the design process, offering greater flexibility and adaptability. Through several simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian D-optimal designs in terms of both lengthscale estimation accuracy and predictive performance during active learning.

Bayesian experimental design↗

DOE OSTI2026

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extracting the Breakout Distance from the ECOT Trajectories: Gaussian Process Regression Approach

Enhanced Corner Turning (ECOT) experiments provide an important metric of performance of high explosive (HE) formulations. The breakout distance is a single scalar value that characterizes the corner turning efficiency of an HE. Extracting the breakout distance from the raw ECOT results, whether experimental or simulated, is a conceptually straightforward procedure which, however, is non-unique, especially in the presence of noise. More specifically, this procedure involves numerical smoothing and selecting particular values for parameters of this smoothing introduces human bias. In this work, we propose to use the Gaussian process regression to analyze ECOT results. This analysis involves the effective smoothing of the data, thus allowing for accurate extraction of the breakout distance. Most importantly, the parameters of this smoothing can be inferred from the ECOT data itself, rendering the approach effectively parameter-free and thus diminishing the human bias. An additional benefit of the Gaussian process regression, being a statistical inference method, is that not just the value of the breakout distance, but also its confidence interval can be extracted from the data. This report introduces the Gaussian process regression, as applied to ECOT, and demonstrates its usefulness by extracting the breakout distances for a selection of experimental and simulated data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unsteady aerodynamic loads on pitching aerofoils represented by Gaussian body force distributions

The actuator line model (ALM) is an approach commonly used to represent lifting and dragging devices like wings and blades in large-eddy simulations (LES). The crux of the ALM is the projection of the actuator point forces onto the LES grid by means of a Gaussian regularisation kernel. The minimum width of the kernel is constrained by the grid size; however, for most practical applications like LES of wind turbines, this value is an order of magnitude larger than the optimal value that maximises accuracy. This discrepancy motivated the development of corrections for the actuator line, which, however, neglect the effect of unsteady spanwise shed vorticity. In this work we develop a model for the impact of spanwise shed vorticity on the unsteady loading of an aerofoil modelled as a Gaussian body force distribution, where the model is applicable within the regime of unsteady attached flow. The model solution is derived both in the time and frequency domain and features an explicit dependence on the Gaussian kernel width. We verify the model with ALM-LES for both pitch steps and periodic pitching. The model solution is compared with Theodorsen theory and validated with both computational fluid dynamics using body fitted grids and experiment. It is concluded that the optimal kernel width for unsteady aerodynamics is approximately 40 % of the chord. The ALM is able to predict the magnitude of the unsteady loading up to a reduced frequency of 𝑘 ≈ 0.2.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Driven Construction of Compact Primitive Gaussian Density Fitting Basis Sets

We present a model-assisted density fitting (MADF) basis set generator, an algorithm for generating primitive atomic Gaussian density fitting (DF) basis sets (DFBSs) from a contracted Gaussian orbital basis set (OBS). The MADF algorithm produces DFBSs suitable for accurate robust DF approximation of 2-particle interactions in mean-field and correlated electronic structures. The algorithm is designed to (a) saturate the OBS product space by a large regularized set of primitive solid-harmonic Gaussian shells with nonuniform distribution of exponents, followed by (b) pruning of the shells according to their contributions to the 2- body energy of a correlated atomic ensemble. Building the DFBS generator model almost exclusively on mathematical and physical principles allows one to limit the number of parameters that control the density fitting error to three, with a single set of parameters sufficient for computations with all basis cardinal numbers, with and without correlation of core electrons, with and without scalar and spin-dependent relativistic effects, spanning almost all of the Periodic Table. Performance assessment included basis sets up to quadruple-ζ quality from several major basis set families, using molecules composed of main-group, d-block, and f-block elements. The resulting DF errors in Hartree−Fock and second-order MP2 energies (with relativistic all-electron treatments, when appropriate) were on the order of 20 and 10 μE h per electron, respectively.

Approximation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiation image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification using a Gaussian process prior

We propose a complete framework for Bayesian image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification based on a Gaussian process prior (GPP) to overcome limitations of maximum likelihood expectation maximization (ML-EM) image reconstruction algorithm. The prior distribution is constructed with a zero-mean Gaussian process (GP) with a choice of a covariance function, and a link function is used to map the Gaussian process to an image. Unlike many other maximum a posteriori approaches, our method offers highly interpretable hyperparamters that are selected automatically with the empirical Bayes method. Furthermore, the GP covariance function can be modified to incorporate a priori structural priors, enabling multi-modality imaging or contextual data fusion. Lastly, we illustrate that our approach lends itself to Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, such as the preconditioned Crank–Nicolson method and the Laplace approximation. The proposed framework is general and can be employed in most radiation image reconstruction problems, and we demonstrate it with simulated free-moving single detector radiation source imaging scenarios. We compare the reconstruction results from GPP and ML-EM, and show that the proposed method can significantly improve the image quality over ML-EM, all the while providing greater understanding of the source distribution via the uncertainty quantification capability. Furthermore, significant improvement of the image quality by incorporating a structural prior is illustrated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with DESI 2024 LRG and QSO samples

We analyse the large-scale clustering of the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Quasar (QSO) sample from the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). In particular, we constrain the primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) parameter f NL loc via the large-scale scale-dependent bias in the power spectrum using 1,631,716 LRGs (0.6 < z < 1.1) and 1,189,129 QSOs (0.8 < z < 3.1). This new measurement takes advantage of the enormous statistical power at large scales of DESI DR1 data, surpassing the latest data release (DR16) of the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). For the first time in this kind of analysis, we use a blinding procedure to mitigate the risk of confirmation bias in our results. We improve the model of the radial integral constraint proposing an innovative technique allowing the correction through the window matrix convolution. We also carefully test the mitigation of the dependence of the target selection on the photometry qualities by incorporating an angular integral constraint contribution to the window function, and validate our methodology with the blinded data. Finally, combining the two samples, we measure f NL loc = -3.6 -9.1 +9.0 at 68% confidence, where we assume the universality relation for the LRG sample and a recent merger model for the QSO sample about the response of bias to primordial non-Gaussianity. Adopting the universality relation for the PNG bias in the QSO analysis leads to f NL loc = 3.5 -7.4 +10.7 at 68% confidence. Due to restricted selection in the LRG sample, the inclusion of the LRGs allows for 10% improvement. This measurement is the most precise determination of primordial non-Gaussianity using large-scale structure to date, surpassing the latest result from eBOSS by a factor of 2.3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Small-scale signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity in k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions

ABSTRACT Searches for primordial non-Gaussianity in cosmological perturbations are a key means of revealing novel primordial physics. However, robustly extracting signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity from non-linear scales of the late-time Universe is an open problem. In this paper, we apply k-Nearest Neighbour cumulative distribution functions, kNN-CDFs, to the quijote-png simulations to explore the sensitivity of kNN-CDFs to primordial non-Gaussianity. An interesting result is that for halo samples with $M_\mathrm{ h}\langle 10^{14}$ M$_\odot$ $h^{-1}$, the kNN-CDFs respond to equilateral PNG in a manner distinct from the other parameters. This persists in the galaxy catalogues in redshift space and can be differentiated from the impact of galaxy modelling, at least within the halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework considered here. kNN-CDFs are related to counts-in-cells and, through mapping a subset of the kNN-CDF measurements into the count-in-cells picture, we show that our results can be modelled analytically. A caveat of the analysis is that we only consider the HOD framework, including assembly bias. It will be interesting to validate these results with other techniques for modelling the galaxy–halo connection, e.g. (hybrid) effective field theory or semi-analytical methods.

Coulton, William R. (ORCID:0000000212973673)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Alternating and Gaussian Fermionic Isometric Tensor Network States

Isometric tensor networks in two dimensions enable efficient and accurate study of quantum many-body states, yet the effect of the isometric restriction on the represented quantum states is not fully understood. We address this question in two main contributions. First, we introduce an improved variant of isometric tensor network states (isoTNS) in two dimensions, where the isometric arrows on the columns of the network alternate between pointing upward and downward; hence the name alternating isometric tensor network states. Second, we introduce a numerical tool—the isometric Gaussian fermionic TNS (isoGfTNS)—that incorporates isometric constraints into the framework of Gaussian fermionic tensor network states. We demonstrate in numerous ways that alternating isoTNSs represent many-body ground states of two-dimensional quantum systems significantly better than the original isoTNSs. First, we show that the entanglement in an isoTNS is mediated along the isometric arrows and that alternating isoTNSs mediate entanglement more efficiently than conventional isoTNSs. Second, alternating isoTNSs correspond to a deeper, and thus more representative, sequential-circuit construction of depth 𝒪⁢(𝐿𝑥 ⋅𝐿𝑦) compared to the original isoTNSs of depth 𝒪⁢(𝐿𝑥 +𝐿𝑦). Third, using the Gaussian framework and gradient-based energy minimization, we provide numerical evidence of better bond-dimension scaling and variational energy of alternating isoGfTNSs for ground states of various free-fermionic models, including the Fermi surface, the band insulator, and the 𝑝𝑥 +𝑖⁢𝑝𝑦 mean-field superconductor. Finally, benchmarking on the transverse-field Ising model, we demonstrate that an alternating isoTNS provides substantially improved performance and stability relative to the original isoTNS for the ground-state search algorithm in interacting systems.

Wu, Yantao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Orphaned oil and gas well methane emission rates quantified using Gaussian plume inversions of ambient observations

Abstract. Annually, ∼ 3.6 million abandoned oil and gas wells in the US emit a combined ∼ 2.6 Tg methane (CH4), adversely affecting climate and regional air quality. However, these estimates depend on emission factors derived from measuring subpopulations of wells that vary by orders of magnitude due to very limited field sampling and poorly characterized distributions. Currently, US protocols to remediate orphaned wells lacks standardized quantification methods needed to both prioritize plugging and account for emission reductions. Therefore, sensitive, reliable, affordable, and scalable CH4 flux quantification methods are needed. We report the use of a simple Gaussian plume method where the dispersion parameters are constrained by in situ ground measurements of CH4 concentration at four locations 7.5–49 m downwind of the orphan well as well as local winds to estimate the leak rate from an orphan well. We derive a flux of 10.53 ± 1.16 kg CH4 h−1 during a venting procedure in April 2023 that agrees with the directly measured volumetric flow rate of 9.00 ± 0.25 kg CH4 h−1. This is 71 % greater than the 5.3 kg CH4 h−1 flux measured 7 months prior. Additionally, we discovered a secondary leak through the surface casing inferred as 0.43–0.67 kg CH4 h−1 both by our ground Gaussian analysis and by transecting the plume with an uncrewed aerial system (UAS). We show that in situ determination of the dispersion parameters used in our Gaussian inversions allows us to measure methane emissions to 15 % accuracy, significantly reducing errors when compared to the standard practice of assuming stability class. Our results help develop simpler methods and protocols for robust orphan well emission quantification that can be used for reporting.

Follansbee, Emily↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization for materials discovery in high entropy alloy spaces

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful and data-efficient method for iterative materials discovery and design, particularly valuable when prior knowledge is limited, underlying functional relationships are complex or unknown, and the cost of querying the materials space is significant. Traditional BO methodologies typically utilize conventional Gaussian Processes (cGPs) to model the relationships between material inputs and properties, as well as correlations within the input space. However, cGP-BO approaches often fall short in multi-objective optimization scenarios, where they are unable to fully exploit correlations between distinct material properties. Leveraging these correlations can significantly enhance the discovery process, as information about one property can inform and improve predictions about others. Here, this study addresses this limitation by employing advanced kernel structures to capture and model multi-dimensional property correlations through multi-task (MTGPs) or deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs), thus accelerating the discovery process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MTGP-BO and DGP-BO in rapidly and robustly solving complex materials design challenges that occur within the context of complex multi-objective optimization over FCC FeCrNiCoCu high entropy alloy (HEA) spaces, where traditional cGP-BO approaches fail. Furthermore, we highlight how the differential costs associated with querying various material properties can be strategically leveraged to make the materials discovery process more cost-efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗