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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Mind the gap: the discrepancy between simulation and reality drives interpretations of the Galactic Center Excess

The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (γEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of γEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (f src ) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the γEM. For the simplest γEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 ± 0.07, while the most complex model yields f src = 0.79 ± 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed γEM. The quoted results for f src do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated γEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our γEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed γEMs have gaps to reality. Finally, our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked "out of domain" uncertainties in future interpretations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Distribution of the Galactic Center Excess’s Sources

The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) may yet herald the discovery of annihilating dark matter. Weighing against that conclusion are analyses showing evidence for dim point sources within the spatial structure of the emission. Because of technical limitations these analyses are purely spatial with all spectral information that could disentangle the excess from astrophysical backgrounds discarded. Here, we demonstrate that a neural network simulation-based inference approach can jointly analyze the spatial and spectra data. The addition is profound: energy information drives the putative point sources to be significantly dimmer, indicating either the GCE is truly diffuse in nature or made of an exceptionally large number of sources. Quantitatively, for our best fit background model, the excess is essentially consistent with Poisson emission as predicted by dark matter. If due to point sources, our median prediction is O(10^{5}) sources, or more than 35 000 at 90% confidence-both orders of magnitude larger than the hundreds preferred by earlier point-source analyses of the GCE, although variations allowed by background systematics could reduce the required number of sources by roughly an order of magnitude.

List, Florian↗
DOE OSTI2022

Return of the templates: Revisiting the Galactic Center excess with multimessenger observations

The Galactic center excess (GCE) remains one of the most intriguing discoveries from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) observations. We revisit the characteristics of the GCE by first producing a new set of high-resolution galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission templates. This diffuse emission, which accounts for the bulk of the observed gamma rays, is ultimately due to cosmic-ray interactions with the interstellar medium. Using recent high-precision cosmic-ray observations, in addition to the continuing Fermi-LAT observations and observations from lower energy photons, we constrain the properties of the galactic diffuse emission. We describe a large set of diffuse gamma-ray emission templates which account for a very wide range of initial assumptions on the physical conditions in the inner galaxy. The broad properties of the GCE that we find in this work are qualitatively unchanged despite the introduction of this new set of templates, though its quantitative features appear mildly different than those obtained in previous analyses. In particular, we find a high-energy tail at higher significance than previously reported. This tail is very prominent in the northern hemisphere, and less so in the southern hemisphere. This strongly affects one prominent interpretation of the excess: known millisecond pulsars are incapable of producing this high-energy emission, even in the relatively softer southern hemisphere, and are therefore disfavored as the sole explanation of the GCE. The annihilation of dark matter particles of mass 40 - 7 + 10 GeV (95% CL) to b quarks with a cross-section of ⟨ σ A v ⟩ = 1. 4 - 0.3 + 0.6 × 10 - 26 cm 3 s − 1 provides a good fit to the excess especially in the relatively cleaner southern sky. Dark matter of the same mass range annihilating to b quarks or heavier dark matter particles annihilating to heavier Standard Model bosons can combine with millisecond pulsars to provide a good fit to the southern hemisphere emission as well, as can a broken power-law spectrum which would be related to recent cosmic-ray burst activity. As part of this paper, we make publicly available all of our templates and the data covariance matrix we have generated to account for systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robustness of the Galactic Center excess morphology against masking

The Galactic Center excess (GCE) remains an enduring mystery, with leading explanations being annihilating dark matter or an unresolved population of millisecond pulsars. Analyzing the morphology of the GCE provides critical clues to identify its exact origin. We investigate the robustness of the inferred GCE morphology against the effects of masking, an important step in the analysis where the gamma-ray emission from point sources and the galactic disk are excluded. Using different masks constructed from Fermi point source catalogs and a wavelet method, we find that the GCE morphology, particularly its ellipticity and cuspiness, is relatively independent of the choice of mask for energies above 2–3 GeV. The GCE morphology systematically favors an approximately spherical shape, as expected for dark matter annihilation. Compared to various stellar bulge profiles, a spherical dark matter annihilation profile better fits the data across different masks and galactic diffuse emission backgrounds, except for the stellar bulge profile which provides a similar fit to the data. Modeling the GCE with two components, one from dark matter annihilation and one tracing the Coleman bulge, we find this two-component model outperforms any single component or combinations of dark matter annihilation and other stellar bulge profiles. Uncertainty remains about the exact fraction contributed by each component across different background models and masks. Furthermore, when the Coleman bulge dominates, its corresponding spectrum lacks characteristics typically associated with millisecond pulsars, suggesting that it mostly models the emission from other sources instead of the GCE that is still present and spherically symmetric.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spurious Point Source Signals in the Galactic Center Excess

We reexamine evidence that the Galactic Center Excess (GCE) originates primarily from point sources (PSs). Here, we show that in our region of interest, non-Poissonian template fitting evidence for GCE PSs is an artifact of unmodeled north-south asymmetry of the GCE. This asymmetry is strongly favored by the fit (although it is unclear if this is physical), and when it is allowed, the preference for PSs becomes insignificant. We reproduce this behavior in simulations, including detailed properties of the spurious PS population. We conclude that the non-Poissonian template fitting evidence for GCE PSs is highly susceptible to certain systematic errors and should not at present be taken to robustly disfavor a dominantly smooth GCE.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The enigmatic Galactic Center excess: Spurious point sources and signal mismodeling

The Galactic Center GeV excess (GCE) has garnered great interest as a possible signal of either dark matter annihilation or some novel astrophysical phenomenon, such as a new population of gamma-ray emitting pulsars. In a companion paper, we showed that in a 10° radius region of interest (ROI) surrounding the Galactic Center, apparent evidence for GCE point sources (PSs) from non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF) is actually an artifact of unmodeled north-south asymmetry of the GCE. In this work, we develop a simplified analytic description of how signal mismodeling can drive an apparent preference for a PS population, and demonstrate how the behavior pointed out in the companion paper also appears in simpler simulated datasets that contain no PS signals at all. We explore the generality of this behavior in the real gamma-ray data, and discuss the implications for past and future studies using NPTF techniques. While the drop in PS preference once north-south asymmetry is included is not ubiquitous in larger ROIs, we show that any overly-rigid signal model is expected to yield a spurious PS signal that can appear very convincing: as well as apparent significance comparable to what one would expect from a true PS population, the signal can exhibit stability against a range of variations in the analysis, and a source count function that is very consistent with previous apparent NPTF-based detections of a GCE PS population. This contrasts with previously studied forms of systematic mismodeling which are unlikely to mimic a PS population in the same way. Finally, in the light of this observation, and its explicit realization in the region where the GCE is brightest, we argue that a dominantly smooth origin for the GCE is not in tension with existing NPTF analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extracting the Galactic Center excess’ source-count distribution with neural nets

The two leading hypotheses for the Galactic Center excess (GCE) in the Fermi data are an unresolved population of faint millisecond pulsars (MSPs) and dark-matter (DM) annihilation. The dichotomy between these explanations is typically reflected by modeling them as two separate emission components. However, point sources (PSs) such as MSPs become statistically degenerate with smooth Poisson emission in the ultrafaint limit (formally where each source is expected to contribute much less than one photon on average), leading to an ambiguity that can render questions such as whether the emission is PS-like or Poissonian in nature ill defined. We present a conceptually new approach that describes the PS and Poisson emission in a unified manner and only afterwards derives constraints on the Poissonian component from the so obtained results. For the implementation of this approach, we leverage deep learning techniques, centered around a neural network-based method for histogram regression that expresses uncertainties in terms of quantiles. We demonstrate that our method is robust against a number of systematics that have plagued previous approaches, in particular DM/PS misattribution. In the Fermi data, we find a faint GCE described by a median source-count distribution (SCD) peaked at a flux of ~ 4 x 10 -11 counts cm -2 s -1 (corresponding to ~ 3-4 expected counts per PS), which would require N ~ $\mathscr{O}$(10 4 ) sources to explain the entire excess (median value N = 29,300 across the sky). Although faint, this SCD allows us to derive the constraint η ρ ≤ 66% for the Poissonian fraction of the GCE flux η ρ at 95% confidence, suggesting that a substantial amount of the GCE flux is due to PSs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

The status of the galactic center gamma-ray excess

The Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess has a spectrum, angular distribution, and overall intensity that agree remarkably well with that expected from annihilating dark matter particles in the form of a m_X \sim m X ∼ 50 GeV thermal relic. Previous claims that these photons are clustered on small angular scales or trace the distribution of known stellar populations once appeared to favor interpretations in which this signal originates from a large population of unresolved millisecond pulsars. More recent work, however, has overturned these conclusions, finding that the observed gamma-ray excess does not contain discernible small scale power, and is distributed with approximate spherical symmetry, not tracing any known stellar populations. In light of these results, it now appears significantly more likely that the Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess is produced by annihilating dark matter.

Hooper, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Status of the Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess

The Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess has a spectrum, angular distribution, and overall intensity that agree remarkably well with that expected from annihilating dark matter particles in the form of a $m_X \sim 50 \, {\rm GeV}$ thermal relic. Previous claims that these photons are clustered on small angular scales or trace the distribution of known stellar populations once appeared to favor interpretations in which this signal originates from a large population of unresolved millisecond pulsars. More recent work, however, has overturned these conclusions, finding that the observed gamma-ray excess does {\it not} contain discernible small scale power, and is distributed with approximate spherical symmetry, not tracing any known stellar populations. In light of these results, it now appears significantly more likely that the Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess is produced by annihilating dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Status of the Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess

The Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess has a spectrum, angular distribution, and overall intensity that agree remarkably well with that expected from annihilating dark matter particles in the form of a $m_X \sim 50 \, {\rm GeV}$ thermal relic. Previous claims that these photons are clustered on small angular scales or trace the distribution of known stellar populations once appeared to favor interpretations in which this signal originates from a large population of unresolved millisecond pulsars. More recent work, however, has overturned these conclusions, finding that the observed gamma-ray excess does {\it not} contain discernible small scale power, and is distributed with approximate spherical symmetry, not tracing any known stellar populations. In light of these results, it now appears significantly more likely that the Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess is produced by annihilating dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing the Pulsar Explanation of the Galactic-Center GeV Excess Using Continuous Gravitational-Wave Searches

Over 10 years ago, Fermi observed an excess of GeV gamma rays from the Galactic Center whose origin is still under debate. One explanation for this excess involves annihilating dark matter, another requires an unresolved population of millisecond pulsars concentrated at the Galactic Center. In this work, we use the results from LIGO and Virgo’s most recent all-sky search for quasimonochromatic, persistent gravitational-wave signals from isolated neutron stars, which is estimated to be about 20%–50% of the population, to determine whether unresolved millisecond pulsars could actually explain this excess. First, we choose a luminosity function that determines the number of millisecond pulsars required to explain the observed excess. Then, we consider two models for deformations on millisecond pulsars to determine their ellipticity distributions, which are directly related to their gravitational-wave radiation. Lastly, based on null results from the O3 frequency-Hough all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves, we find that a large set of the parameter space in the pulsar luminosity function can be excluded. We also evaluate how these exclusion regions may change with respect to various model choices. Further, our results are the first of their kind and represent a bridge between gamma-ray astrophysics, gravitational-wave astronomy, and dark-matter physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Legacy Analysis of Milky Way Dwarf Spheroidal Satellite Galaxies: An Update

Studies of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data coincident with dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies (dSphs) of the Milky Way have put the most stringent constraints on models of annihilating dark matter (DM) with candidate masses in the GeV–TeV range. Recent results found the presence of small, local significance excesses from these targets, at the 2σ–3σ level. However, these excesses disagree on the predicted properties of the DM candidate, and their significance vanishes when considering correction factors for the number of trials. In this work, we apply key improvements to the analysis of dSphs. We use stricter cuts on the data, implement a method to adaptively model the background, and assume an updated framework for DM annihilation. We find that our improved background modeling leads to a better agreement between the model and the data. This produces an increase in the local and global significance of the dSph excess compared to previous studies. Finally, we find that the DM properties obtained in this work are less dependent on the sample of dSphs being considered compared to previous studies, while remaining in agreement with the predictions from the Galactic center excess observed by Fermi/LAT and the antiproton excess observed by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02). Considering our improvements, a future significant increase in the number of dwarfs may lead to a definitive confirmation or exclusion of the DM interpretation of the Galactic center excess.

cold dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center γ-ray excess

The nature of the Fermi γ-ray Galactic Center Excess (GCE) has remained a persistent mystery for over a decade. Although the excess is broadly compatible with emission expected due to dark matter annihilation, an explanation in terms of a population of unresolved astrophysical point sources e.g., millisecond pulsars, remains viable. The effort to uncover the origin of the GCE is hampered in particular by an incomplete understanding of diffuse emission of Galactic origin. This can lead to spurious features that make it difficult to robustly differentiate smooth emission, as expected for a dark matter origin, from more “clumpy” emission expected from a population of relatively bright, unresolved point sources. Here, we use recent advancements in the field of simulation-based inference, in particular density estimation techniques using normalizing flows, in order to characterize the contribution of modeled components, including unresolved point source populations, to the GCE. Compared to traditional techniques based on the statistical distribution of photon counts, our machine learning-based method is able to utilize more of the information contained in a given model of the Galactic Center emission, and in particular can perform posterior parameter estimation while accounting for pixel-to-pixel spatial correlations in the γ-ray map. This makes the method demonstrably more resilient to certain forms of model misspecification. On application to Fermi data, the method generically attributes a smaller fraction of the GCE flux to unresolved point sources when compared to traditional approaches. We nevertheless infer such a contribution to make up a non-negligible fraction of the GCE across all analysis variations considered, with at least $38^{+9}_{-19}$% of the excess attributed to unresolved point sources in our baseline analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Confronting Dark Matter with the Multiwavelength Sky (Final Technical Report)

The existence of dark matter is a key clue to new fundamental physics, yet its nature and non-gravitational interactions remain mysterious. In the course of this five-year project (spanning July 2015 - July 2020), we have developed novel analysis techniques to separate dark matter signals from astrophysical backgrounds in the inner Galaxy, and measured hitherto-unknown properties of the Fermi Bubbles and the Galactic Center excess in gamma-rays from the inner Milky Way. We have improved predictions for the spatial distribution and energy spectra of photon signals from dark matter, and set new limits from astrophysical and cosmological datasets on dark matter inhabiting complex dark sectors, multi-particle dark matter annihilation, and tiny primordial black holes. We have successfully adapted effective field theory techniques from collider physics to make high-precision predictions for signals from heavy weakly-interacting DM, allowing us to essentially exclude the possibility that DM is a thermal wino, and have discovered novel theoretical and observational implications for dark matter bound states and self-interactions. We have developed a comprehensive public code package for modeling the effects of exotic energy injections, such as from dark matter annihilation and decay, on the ionization and temperature history of the early cosmos, and have used these tools to set robust, powerful and broadly-applicable constraints on models of light dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Velocity-dependent annihilation radiation from dark matter subhalos in cosmological simulations

Here, we use the suite of Milky Way-like galaxies in the Auriga simulations to determine the contribution to annihilation radiation from dark matter subhalos in three velocity-dependent dark matter annihilation models: Sommerfeld, p-wave, and d-wave models. We compare these to the corresponding distribution in the velocity-independent s-wave annihilation model. For both the hydrodynamical and dark-matter-only simulations, only in the case of the Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation does the total annihilation flux from subhalos exceed the total annihilation flux from the smooth halo component within the virial radius of the halo. Progressing from Sommerfeld to the s, p, and d-wave models, the contribution from the smooth component of the halo becomes more dominant, implying that for the p-wave and d-wave models the smooth component is by far the dominant contribution to the radiation. Comparing to the Galactic center excess observed by Fermi-LAT, for all simulated halos the emission is dominated by the smooth halo contribution. However, it is possible that for Sommerfeld models, extrapolation down to mass scales below the current resolution limit of the simulation would imply a non-negligible contribution to the gamma-ray emission from the Galactic Center region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

New determination of the millisecond pulsar gamma-ray luminosity function and implications for the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess

It has been suggested that the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess (GCE) could be produced by a large number of centrally located millisecond pulsars. The fact that no such pulsar population has been detected implies that these sources must be very faint and very numerous. Here, in this study, we use the contents of Fermi’s recently released Third Pulsar Catalog (3PC) to measure the luminosity function of the millisecond pulsars in the Milky Way’s disk. We find that this source population exhibits a luminosity function with a mean γ -ray luminosity of ⟨ L γ ⟩ ∼ 6 × 10 32 erg / s (integrated above 0.1 GeV). If the GCE were generated by millisecond pulsars with the same luminosity function, we find that ∼ 20 such sources from the inner Galaxy population should have already been detected by Fermi and included in the 3PC. Given the lack of such observed sources, we exclude the hypothesis that the GCE is generated by pulsars with the same luminosity function as those in the Galactic disk with a significance of 3.4 σ . We conclude that either less than 39% of the GCE is generated by pulsars, or that the millisecond pulsars in the inner Galaxy are at least 5 times less luminous on average than those found in the Galactic disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗