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Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗

Future energy infrastructure, energy platform and energy storage

Today fossil energy dominates energy consumption across the world. There has been an increasing momentum to reduce fossil energy consumption and increase renewable energy utilization to more than 70%. Such high penetrations of distributed renewable resources bring large uncertainty and complexity that cannot be easily handled by the current infrastructure. For the last two decades, telecommunication industry has gone through a similar transition from centralized to distributed systems, and more recently to platform approaches, which become the corner stone of today’s vibrant platform economy. Based on telecommunication history, we believe that a platform-based approach, called the energy platform, is a viable solution for addressing the renewable energy challenges. The energy platform consists of an array of computational algorithms, sensing and control technologies for key industry, energy generators and users to jointly manage and control the complex energy infrastructure. It includes the following key components: (1) the hardware and software to generate, store, control and transmit electricity/data (the energy cloud), (2) the digital platforms and tools for key energy producers, digital, service and communication industry to share the assets, participate in and manage the complex infrastructure, and for customers to participate in energy transactions, (3) the transaction platform for new service and business models. Additionally, the energy platform requires breakthroughs in large scale energy storage and many other areas including efficient power electronics, sensors and controls, new mathematical and computational tools, and deep integration of energy technologies and information sciences to control and stabilize such complex chaotic systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Thorium and Rare Earth Monoxides and Related Phases

Thorium was a part of energy infrastructure in the 19th century due to the refractory and electronic properties of its dioxide. It will be a part of future energy infrastructure as the most abundant energy reserve based on nuclear fission. This paper discusses the solid-state chemistry of the monoxides and related rocksalt phases of thorium and the rare earths, both at atmospheric and at high pressure. The existence of solid thorium monoxide was first suggested more than 100 years ago; however, it was never obtained in bulk and has been studied mostly theoretically. Monoxides of lanthanides from Eu to Ho are ferromagnetic semiconductors sought for spintronics and were studied in thin films. La to Sm metallic monoxides were synthesized in bulk at pressures below 5 GPa. Recently, ThO formation in thin films has been reported and the stability of bulk ThO at high pressure was theoretically predicted based on first principles computations at 0 K. New ab initio computations were performed accounting for temperature effects up to 1000 K using lattice dynamics in the quasi-harmonic approximation. New computational results confirm the stabilization of pure ThO above 30 GPa and suggest the possibility of high-pressure synthesis of (Th,Nd)O at 1000 K and 5 GPa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sintering protonic zirconate cells with enhanced electrolysis stability and Faradaic efficiency

The emerging applications of steam electrolysis and electrochemical synthesis at 300–600 °C set stringent requirements on the stability of protonic ceramic cells, which cannot be met by Ce-rich electrolytes. A promising candidate is Ce-free BaZr 0.8 Y 0.2 O 3–δ , but its usage has long been hindered due to the high sintering temperatures required for protonic devices. Here we resolved the issue through a co-sintering process, in which the shrinkage stress of a readily sinterable support layer helps to densify the pure BaZr 0.8 Y 0.2 O 3–δ electrolyte membrane at low temperatures. This approach eliminates Ce and harmful sintering aids in the dense zirconate electrolyte membrane, thereby enhancing the Faradaic efficiency and electrochemical stability, especially under harsh operating conditions. Here, the protonic zirconate cells have exceptional performance and demonstrate stable high-steam pressure electrolysis up to 0.7 atm steam pressure, –2 A cm –2 current density and over 800 h of dynamic operation at 600 °C. Our processing breakthrough enables stabilized protonic cells for demanding applications in future energy infrastructure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Theoretical investigation of surface chemical reactivity of compositionally disordered multi-metallic alloys

Alloys are widely used in both academic and industrial research as heterogeneous catalysts for accelerating technologically important reactions ranging from hydrocarbon reforming, selective hydrogenation, to electrochemical reactions involving hydrogen and oxygen that are fundamental and indispensable to a sustainable future energy infrastructure. Most basic catalysis research has been limited to combinations of two elements that are usually ordered in some manner at the nanoscale because doing so allows observable results to be easily rationalized. It however leaves a huge material space consisting of multi metallic, compositionally disordered alloys unexplored. This research demonstrates a viable theoretical approach combining different types of first principles calculations (including Green’s function-based Korringa–Kohn–Rostoker coherent potential approximation (KKR–CPA) and planewave-based density functional theory) to enable the surface chemical reactivity of compositionally complex alloy surfaces to be investigated. We demonstrate the approach by investigating hydrogen adsorption and evolution on two types of compositionally disordered alloys: a quaternary CoCrFeNi high-entropy alloy, and binary Pt-3d base metal alloys.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗

Power capture and power take-off load of a self-balanced dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter

Wave energy converters are an important part of future renewable energy infrastructure. Predicting their power matrix, capture width ratio, and power take-off loads at a targeted site is required for performance assessment before deployment. Because their testing is very expensive, numerical modeling and simulations play a significant role in those assessments. Linear potential flow theory has limited accuracy under large amplitude wave forcing. More accurate predictions can be obtained by using higher-fidelity models, which are computationally expensive. We present a framework for multi-fidelity numerical simulations to determine the hydrodynamic response, wave capture capability, and power take-off load of a full-scale dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter. This design exploits out-of-phase motion by setting the distance between the flaps to half the wavelength of the most occurring wave. The simulations are validated using a 1:10 model experiments in a wave tank. Based on these validations, it was determined that Euler simulations provide an acceptable prediction with 90% reduction in computational time with only 11% error. Utilizing Euler simulations at full-scale, the results demonstrate that the annual electrical energy output is 1.79 GWh under regular wave conditions. Here, one significant improvement over single-flap designs is the capture width ratio which exceeds unity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

ARIES and PEGI Platform - Overview and Background

NREL's Power Electronic Grid Interface (PEGI) Workshop, held October 13, 2020, focused on the research challenges of operating power systems with ever-higher levels of inverter-based generation and power-electronic-based load. This presentation shares an overview of ARIES and the PEGI Platform.

ARIES↗

Future of Water Infrastructure and Innovation Summit

Energy and water systems are interdependent, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has invested in energy and water for several years, including the Energy-Water Desalination Hub (led by the National Alliance for Water Innovation, NAWI), and research and development (R&D) in resource recovery from wastewater, among other areas. The Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held The Future of Water Infrastructure and Innovation Summit to inform the understanding of future opportunities in the water space. The virtual summit was held on October 27 and 28, 2020. The organizers gathered information from a diverse group of relevant water and wastewater stakeholders representing academia, industry, government, nongovernmental organizations, and local/regional utilities. Topics from Day 1 discussions included: desalination, water and wastewater treatment/recovery, produced water, industrial management of water, and hydropower, conveyance, and water systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy Resilient Recovery in Puerto Rico: Hurricane Maria Recovery Support

This report covers microgrids as a special application of distributed energy resources (DERs) in Puerto Rico. This is one of a series of reports describing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) multi-laboratory efforts undertaken. To ensure the sustainable, long-term recovery of Puerto Rico's electric power grid from hurricanes Maria and Irma and to build capacity to manage future potential natural disasters in the most secure and resilient way, DOE convened experts from multiple national laboratories to develop a comprehensive set of data, models, analytic tools, and studies, considering inputs from a wide variety of stakeholder groups, to support technically sound recommendations for Puerto Rico's energy investment decisions. In Phase 1 of the multi-laboratory effort to support Puerto Rico's recovery, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) provided the utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) recommendations for a new framework of interconnection standards to accelerate the integration of utility-scale, transmission-connected, renewable electrical generation and energy storage that ensure cross-technology compatibility and enable high deployment levels without compromising grid reliability, safety, or security (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73848.pdf). In Phase 2, NREL published a report focused on the interconnection of distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system in Puerto Rico (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77127.pdf). This report familiarized the reader with Puerto Rico's distribution infrastructure and operational practices and procedures that are relevant to DER interconnection. The report also provided considerations for streamlining the interconnection process given the expected increase in deployments resulting from Puerto Rico's renewable portfolio standard goal of 100% renewables by 2050. Accordingly, the report identifies considerations and concerns associated with the increase in intermittent generation, strategies for DER interconnection best practices, and the potential use of the latest technological solutions identified in the latest revision of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 1547-2018 interconnection standard. Additionally, the report identified ways to improve the physical resiliency of installed DERs. This task describes how distributed energy systems may participate in and contribute to improving the resiliency of Puerto Rico's energy infrastructure in the future. This report presents an analysis of the Puerto Rico grid to illustrate the possible different microgrid and minigrid scenarios. The capability to form sustained microgrids and minigrids has the potential to provide a high level of resiliency during disturbances on the grid. DERs, on the other hand, have the capability to aid in the microgrid operation by providing grid support as well as grid-forming functionality. Other tasks in Phase 3 include voltage regulation in distribution networks using DERs and transmission-and-distribution co-simulation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Snowmass 2021 Computational Frontier CompF4 Topical Group Report Storage and Processing Resource Access

Computing plays a significant role in all areas of high energy physics. The Snowmass 2021 CompF4 topical group's scope is facilities R&D, where we consider "facilities" as the computing hardware and software infrastructure inside the data centers plus the networking between data centers, irrespective of who owns them, and what policies are applied for using them. In other words, it includes commercial clouds, federally funded High Performance Computing (HPC) systems for all of science, and systems funded explicitly for a given experimental or theoretical program. This topical group report summarizes the findings and recommendations for the storage, processing, networking and associated software service infrastructures for future high energy physics research, based on the discussions organized through the Snowmass 2021 community study.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Authentication of smart grid communications using quantum key distribution

Smart grid solutions enable utilities and customers to better monitor and control energy use via information and communications technology. Information technology is intended to improve the future electric grid’s reliability, efficiency, and sustainability by implementing advanced monitoring and control systems. However, leveraging modern communications systems also makes the grid vulnerable to cyberattacks. Here we report the first use of quantum key distribution (QKD) keys in the authentication of smart grid communications. In particular, we make such demonstration on a deployed electric utility fiber network. The developed method was prototyped in a software package to manage and utilize cryptographic keys to authenticate machine-to-machine communications used for supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA). This demonstration showcases the feasibility of using QKD to improve the security of critical infrastructure, including future distributed energy resources (DERs), such as energy storage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adversarial super-resolution of climatological wind and solar data

Accurate and high-resolution data reflecting different climate scenarios are vital for policy makers when deciding on the development of future energy resources, electrical infrastructure, transportation networks, agriculture, and many other societally important systems. However, state-of-the-art long-term global climate simulations are unable to resolve the spatiotemporal characteristics necessary for resource assessment or operational planning. We introduce an adversarial deep learning approach to super resolve wind velocity and solar irradiance outputs from global climate models to scales sufficient for renewable energy resource assessment. Using adversarial training to improve the physical and perceptual performance of our networks, we demonstrate up to a 50 × resolution enhancement of wind and solar data. In validation studies, the inferred fields are robust to input noise, possess the correct small-scale properties of atmospheric turbulent flow and solar irradiance, and retain consistency at large scales with coarse data. An additional advantage of our fully convolutional architecture is that it allows for training on small domains and evaluation on arbitrarily-sized inputs, including global scale. We conclude with a super-resolution study of renewable energy resources based on climate scenario data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

“Innervated” Pipelines: A New Technology Platform for In-Situ Repair and Embedded Intelligence

The overall vision pursued under the project would ultimately enable capability for real-time operational monitoring of natural gas (and other) pipeline infrastructures through the combination of in-situ repair and rehabilitation methods with embedded fiber optic sensing and associated data analytics methods and platform tools. Benefits to the public include more resilient and robust natural gas pipeline infrastructures with the potential to expand the applications of developed technologies under the program to other important areas of critical energy infrastructure in the future such as H2 pipelines and infrastructure, municipal and other civil infrastructure, as well as subsurface oil, gas, and geothermal infrastructure applications. The program has successfully demonstrated feasibility for all of the critical enabling elements and serves as a foundation for future technology maturation, deployment, and customization for other potential applications and high-priority needs into the future. Several underlying innovations have shown potential for commercial deployment and are the subject of continued development and technology transfer based upon patents submitted during the project duration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Designing Future Energy Systems with Generative AI

Energy systems are experiencing various changes that impact the distribution, use, and reliability of energy. Local utilities and municipalities must respond and adapt to these changes, moving towards a future energy system with modernized infrastructure and other targeted investments and policy decisions. However, planning for and enacting these advancements requires significant effort from experts and engineers to develop strategies that ensure a reliable and secure energy future. This includes characterizing the current energy infrastructure, identifying areas for development, and engaging with local community members. Emerging generative artificial intelligence techniques can alleviate pain points and help support the development of the next generation of energy systems. Here, in this article, we highlight on-going generative AI work in the areas of atmospheric modeling, building energy management, and distribution network design, and we propose a vision for the role of generative AI that considers opportunities and identifies challenges inherent to this technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗