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At least 19 records

Biomass burning declines lead to large net reductions in NO2 concentrations over north equatorial Africa in spite of growing fossil fuel emissions

Socio-economic development in low and middle-income countries has been accompanied by increased emissions of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx: nitrogen dioxide (NO2) + nitric oxide (NO)), which affect human health. In sub-Saharan Africa, fossil fuel combustion has nearly doubled since 2000. At the same time, biomass burning—another important NOx source—has declined in Africa’s northern biomass burning region, attributed to changes in climate and anthropogenic fire management associated with agricultural development. Here we use satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) and burned area to identify NO2 trends and drivers over Africa. Across the northern ecosystems where biomass burning occurs—home to over 350 million people—mean annual tropospheric NO2 VCDs decreased by 4.5% from 2005 through 2017 during the biomass burning season of November through February. Reductions in burned area explained the majority of these change in NO2 VCDs, but there were also weaker relationships between changes in NO2 VCDs and fossil fuel emissions over parts of West Africa, which were stronger during rainy season. Over Africa’s biomass burning regions, NO2 VCDs tended to decrease with increasing population density up to a threshold of approximately 180 people per km2, suggesting that anthropogenic activity causes a net reduction in NO2 emissions across roughly 90% of the continent’s biomass burning regions. In contrast to the widely-held perception that socio-economic development worsens air quality in low and middle-income nations, our results suggest that countries in Africa’s northern biomass burning region are following a different pathway, resulting in regional air quality benefits. However, these benefits may be lost with increasing fossil fuel use.

Biomass burning↗

The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Emission Uncertainties and Accounting for 3-D Chemical CO2 Production on Inverse Natural Carbon Flux Estimates from Satellite and In Situ Data

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions for estimating natural carbon fluxes typically do not allow for adjustment of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, despite significant uncertainties in emission inventories and inadequacies in the specification of international bunker emissions in inversions. Also, most inversions place CO2 release from fossil fuel combustion and biospheric sources entirely at the surface. However, a non-negligible portion of the emissions actually occurs in the form of reduced carbon species, which are eventually oxidized to CO2 downwind. Omission of this ‘chemical pump’ can result in a significant redistribution of the inferred total carbon fluxes among regions. We assess the impacts of different prescriptions of fossil fuel emissions and accounting for the chemical pump on flux estimation, with a novel aspect of conducting both satellite CO2 observation-based and surface in situ-based inversions. We apply 3-D carbon monoxide (CO) loss rates archived from a state-of-the-art GEOS chemistry and climate model simulation in a forward transport model run to simulate the distribution of CO2 originating from oxidation of carbon species. We also subtract amounts from the prior surface CO2 fluxes that are actually emitted in the form of fossil and biospheric CO, methane, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We find that the posterior large-scale fluxes are generally insensitive to the finer-scale spatial differences between the ODIAC and CDIAC fossil fuel CO2 gridded datasets and assumptions about international bunker emissions. However, accounting for 3-D chemical CO2 production and the surface correction shifts the global carbon sink, e.g., from land to ocean and from the tropics to the north, with a magnitude and even direction that depend on assumptions about the surface correction. A GOSAT satellite-based inversion is more sensitive to the chemical pump than one using in situ observations, exhibiting substantial flux impacts of 0.28, 0.53, and -0.47 Pg C yr(exp -1) over tropical land, global land, and oceans, due to differences in the horizontal and vertical sampling of the wo observation types. Overall, the biases from neglecting the chemical pump appear to be minor relative to the flux estimate uncertainties and the differences between the in situ and GOSAT inversions, but their relative importance will grow in the future as observational coverage further increases and satellite retrieval biases decrease.

James S Wang↗

Hypergolic oxidizer and fuel scrubber emissions

Hypergolic fuels and oxidizer are emitted to the environment during fueling and deservicing shuttle and other spacecraft. Such emissions are difficult to measure due to the intermittent purge flow and to the presence of suspended scrubber liquor. A new method for emissions monitoring was introduced in a previous paper. This paper is a summary of the results of a one-year study of shuttle launch pads and orbiter processing facilities (OPF's) which proved that emissions can be determined from field scrubbers without direct measurement of vent flow rate and hypergol concentration. This new approach is based on the scrubber efficiency, which was measured during normal operations, and on the accumulated weight of hypergol captured in the scrubber liquor, which is part of the routine monitoring data of scrubber liquors. To validate this concept, three qualification tests were performed, logs were prepared for each of 16 hypergol scrubbers at KSC, the efficiencies of KSC scrubbers were measured during normal operations, and an estimate of the annual emissions was made based on the efficiencies and the propellant buildup data. The results have confirmed that the emissions from the KSC scrubbers can be monitored by measuring the buildup of hypergol propellant in the liquor, and then using the appropriate efficiency to calculate the emissions. There was good agreement between the calculated emissions based on outlet concentration and flow rate, and the emissions calculated from the propellant buildup and efficiency. The efficiencies of 12 KSC scrubbers, measured under actual servicing operations and special test conditions, were assumed to be valid for all subsequent operations until a significant change in hardware occurred. An estimate of the total emissions from 16 scrubbers for three years showed that 0.3 kg/yr of fuel and 234 kg/yr of oxidizer were emitted.

Parrish, Clyde F.↗

Exhaust emissions from a premixing, prevaporizing flame tube using liquid jet A fuel

Emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and unburned hydrocarbons were measured in a burner where liquid Jet A fuel was sprayed into the heated air stream and vaporized upstream of a perforated plate flameholder. The burner was tested at inlet air temperatures at 640, 800, and 833 K, an inlet pressure of 5.6 X 100,000 N/m squared, a reference velocity of 25 m/sec, and equivalence ratios from lean blowout to 0.7. Nitrogen oxide levels of below 1.0 g NO2/kg fuel were obtained at combustion efficiencies greater than 99 percent. The measured emission levels for the liquid fuel agreed well with previously reported premixed gaseous propane data and agreed with well stirred reactor predictions. Autoignition of the premixed fuel air mixture was a problem at inlet temperatures above 650 K with 104 msec premixing time.

Marek, C. J.↗

Exploiting OMI NO2 Satellite Observations to Infer Fossil-fuel CO2 Emissions from U.S. Megacities

Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006–2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NOX emissions with bottom-up city-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO2 plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NOX emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NOX emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (−17% in Miami to −58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (−25% in Miami to −49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO2, are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NOX and CO2 emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km2 resolution. Over the study period, NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (−24% to −51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NOX when compared to CO2 due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NOX emissions and bottom-up NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO2 emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to −31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013–2016 average CO2 emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO2 emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. We anticipate future remote sensing instruments – with better spatial and temporal resolution – will better constrain the NOX-to-CO2 ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗

The Influence of Internal Model Variability in GEOS-5 on Interhemispheric CO2 Exchange

An ensemble of eight atmospheric CO2 simulations was completed employing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) for the years 2000-2001, each with initial meteorological conditions corresponding to different days in January 2000 to examine internal model variability. Globally, the model runs show similar concentrations of CO2 for the two years, but in regions of high CO2 concentrations due to fossil fuel emissions, large differences among different model simulations appear. The phasing and amplitude of the CO2 cycle at Northern Hemisphere locations in all of the ensemble members is similar to that of surface observations. In several southern hemisphere locations, however, some of the GEOS-5 model CO2 cycles are out of phase by as much as four months, and large variations occur between the ensemble members. This result indicates that there is large sensitivity to transport in these regions. The differences vary by latitude-the most extreme differences in the Tropics and the least at the South Pole. Examples of these differences among the ensemble members with regard to CO2 uptake and respiration of the terrestrial biosphere and CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel emissions are shown at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Integration-based flow analysis of the atmospheric circulation in the model runs shows widely varying paths of flow into the Tasmania region among the models including sources from North America, South America, South Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. These results suggest that interhemispheric transport can be strongly influenced by internal model variability.

Allen, Melissa↗

Hydrogen/Air Fuel Nozzle Emissions Experiments

The use of hydrogen combustion for aircraft gas turbine engines provides significant opportunities to reduce harmful exhaust emissions. Hydrogen has many advantages (no CO2 production, high reaction rates, high heating value, and future availability), along with some disadvantages (high current cost of production and storage, high volume per BTU, and an unknown safety profile when in wide use). One of the primary reasons for switching to hydrogen is the elimination of CO2 emissions. Also, with hydrogen, design challenges such as fuel coking in the fuel nozzle and particulate emissions are no longer an issue. However, because it takes place at high temperatures, hydrogen-air combustion can still produce significant levels of NOx emissions. Much of the current research into conventional hydrocarbon-fueled aircraft gas turbine combustors is focused on NOx reduction methods. The Zero CO2 Emission Technology (ZCET) hydrogen combustion project will focus on meeting the Office of Aerospace Technology goal 2 within pillar one for Global Civil Aviation reducing the emissions of future aircraft by a factor of 3 within 10 years and by a factor of 5 within 25 years. Recent advances in hydrocarbon-based gas turbine combustion components have expanded the horizons for fuel nozzle development. Both new fluid designs and manufacturing technologies have led to the development of fuel nozzles that significantly reduce aircraft emissions. The goal of the ZCET program is to mesh the current technology of Lean Direct Injection and rocket injectors to provide quick mixing, low emissions, and high-performance fuel nozzle designs. An experimental program is planned to investigate the fuel nozzle concepts in a flametube test rig. Currently, a hydrogen system is being installed in cell 23 at NASA Glenn Research Center's Research Combustion Laboratory. Testing will be conducted on a variety of fuel nozzle concepts up to combustion pressures of 350 psia and inlet air temperatures of 1200 F. Computational fluid dynamics calculations, with the Glenn developed National Combustor Code, are being performed to optimize the fuel nozzle designs.

Smith, Timothy D.↗

Concepts for reducing exhaust emissions and fuel consumption of the aircraft piston engine

A study was made to reduce exhaust emissions and fuel consumption of a general aviation aircraft piston engine by applying known technology. Fourteen promising concepts such as stratified charge combustion chambers, cooling cylinder head improvements, and ignition system changes were evaluated for emission reduction and cost effectiveness. A combination of three concepts, improved fuel injection system, improved cylinder head with exhaust port liners and exhaust air injection was projected as the most cost effective and safe means of meeting the EPA standards for CO, HC and NO. The fuel economy improvement of 4.6% over a typical single engine aircraft flight profile does not though justify the added cost of the three concepts, and significant reductions in fuel consumption must be applied to the cruise mode where most of the fuel is used. The use of exhaust air injection in combination with exhaust port liners reduces exhaust valve stem temperatures which can result in longer valve guide life. The use of exhaust port liners alone can reduce engine cooling air requirements by 11% which is the equivalent of a 1.5% increase in propulsive power. The EPA standards for CO, HC and NO can be met in the IO-520 engine using air injection alone or the Simmonds improved fuel injection system.

Rezy, B. J.↗

Evaluating China's fossil-fuel CO2 emissions from a comprehensive dataset of nine inventories

China's fossil-fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions accounted for approximately 28 % of the global total FFCO2 in 2016. An accurate estimate of China's FFCO2 emissions is a prerequisite for global and regional carbon budget analyses and the monitoring of carbon emission reduction efforts. However, significant uncertainties and discrepancies exist in estimations of China's FFCO2 emissions due to a lack of detailed traceable emission factors (EFs) and multiple statistical data sources. Here, we evaluated China's FFCO2 emissions from nine published global and regional emission datasets. These datasets show that the total emissions increased from 3.4 (3.0–3.7) in 2000 to 9.8 (9.2–10.4) Gt CO2 per yr in 2016. The variations in these estimates were largely due to the different EF (0.491–0.746 t C per t of coal) and activity data. The large-scale patterns of gridded emissions showed a reasonable agreement, with high emissions being concentrated in major city clusters, and the standard deviation mostly ranged from 10 % to 40 % at the provincial level. However, patterns beyond the provincial scale varied significantly, with the top 5 % of the grid level accounting for 50 %–90 % of total emissions in these datasets. Our findings highlight the significance of using locally measured EF for Chinese coal. To reduce uncertainty, we recommend using physical CO2 measurements and use these values for dataset validation, key input data sharing (e.g., point sources), and finer-resolution validations at various levels.

Pengfei Han↗

Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions

Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 C relative to the 1880 - 1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6 - 9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89 - 535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

Hansen, James↗

The Use of Gridded Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (FFCO2) Inventory for Climate Mitigation Applications: Errors, Uncertainties, and Current and Future Challenges

Emission Inventory (EI) is a fundamental tool to monitor global compliance of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions reduction actions. Inventory guidelines provide a best practice to help EI compilers to make comparable national emission estimates, in spite of the differences in data availability across countries and regions. There are a variety of sources of errors and uncertainties, however, that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines define. For example, spatially-explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes, and there are no specific guidelines to disaggregate emission estimates from country scale. On top of that, EIs are fundamentally prone to systematic biases due to the simple calculation methodology and thus an objective evaluation (e.g. atmospheric top-down estimates) is needed to assure the accuracy of the estimates. ODIAC is a global high-resolution (1x1 km) fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) gridded EI that is now often used in atmospheric CO2 modeling. ODIAC is based on disaggregation of national emission estimates made by CDIAC, which is the well accepted standard in the community. The ODIAC emission data product is updated on an annual basis using best available statistical data. Subnational spatial emission patterns are estimated using power plant profiles and satellite-observations of nighttime lights. In addition to the conventional CDIAC gridded data product, ODIAC carries international bunker emissions (shipping and aviation), which allows flux inversion modelers to accurately impose the global total fossil fuel emissions and their horizontal and vertical distribution. We have extensively evaluated ODIAC emissions using fine-grained EIs as well as a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy relevant) with a focus on the uncertainties associated with the emission disaggregation. We have examined the use of NASA's Black Marble Suomi-NPP/VIIRS nightlight data.

Oda, Tomohiro↗

Constraining Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions from Urban Area Using OCO-2 Observations of Total Column CO2

Satellite observations of the total column dry-air CO2(XCO2) are expected to support the quantification and monitoring of fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions from urban areas. We evaluate the utility of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) XCO2 retrievals to optimize whole-city emissions, using a Bayesian inversion system and high-resolution transport modeling. The uncertainties of constrained emissions related to transport model, satellite measurements, and local biospheric fluxes are quantified. For the first two uncertainty sources, we examine cities of different landscapes: “plume city” located in relatively flat terrain, represented by Riyadh and Cairo; “basin city” located in basin terrain, represented by Los Angeles (LA). The retrieved scaling factors of emissions and their uncertainties show prominent variabilities from track to track, due to the varying meteorological conditions and relative locations of the tracks transecting plumes. To explore the performance of multiple tracks in retrieving emissions, pseudo data experiments are carried out. The estimated least number of tracks required to constrain the total emissions for Riyadh (<10% uncertainty), Cairo (<10%), and LA (<5%) are 5, 8, and 7, respectively. Additionally, to evaluate the impact of biospheric fluxes on derivation of the ffXCO2 enhancements, we conduct simulations for Pearl River Delta metropolitan area. Significant fractions of local XCO2 enhancements associated with local biospheric XCO2 variations are shown, which potentially lead to biased estimates of ffCO2 emissions. We demonstrate that satellite measurements can be used to improve urban ffCO2 emissions with a sufficient amount of measurements and appropriate representations of the uncertainty components.

Xinxin Ye↗

Effects of Passive Fuel-Air Mixing Control on Burner Emissions Via Lobed Fuel Injectors

The present experimental study examines the effects of differing levels of passive fuel-air premixing on flame structures and their associated NO(x) and CO emissions. Four alternative fuel injector geometries were explored, three of which have lobed shapes. These lobed injectors mix fuel and air and strain species inter-faces to differing extents due to streamwise vorticity generation, thus creating different local or core equivalence ratios within flow regions upstream of flame ignition and stabilization. Prior experimental studies of two of these lobed injector flowfields focused on non-reactive mixing characteristics and emissions measurements for the case where air speeds were matched above and below the fuel injector, effectively generating stronger streamwise vorticity than spanwise vorticity. The present studies examine the effects of airstream mismatch (and hence additional spanwise vorticity generation), effects of confinement of the crossflow to reduce the local equivalence ratio, and the effects of altering the geometry and position of the flameholders. NO(x) and CO emissions as well as planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging (PLIF) of seeded acetone are used to characterize injector performance and reactive flow evolution.

Mitchell, M. G.↗

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

climate↗

Ultra High Bypass Ratio Engine Research for Reducing Noise, Emissions, and Fuel Consumption

A pictorial history of NASA development of advanced engine technologies for reducing environmental emissions and increasing performance from the 1970s to 2000s is presented. The goals of the Subsonic Fixed Wing Program portion of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program are discussed, along with the areas of investigation currently being pursued by the Ultra High Bypass Partnership Element of the Subsonic Fixed Wing Program.

Hughes, Christopher E.↗

Collaborative Research on the Ultra High Bypass Ratio Engine Cycle to Reduce Noise, Emissions and Fuel Consumption

A pictorial history of NASA development of advanced engine technologies for reducing environmental emissions and increasing performance from the 1970s to present is presented. The goals of the Subsonic Fixed Wing Program portion of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program are addressed, along with the areas of investigation currently being pursued by the Ultra High Bypass Partnership Element of the Subsonic Fixed Wing Program to meet the goals. Ultra High Bypass cycle research collaboration successes with Pratt & Whitney are presented.

Hughes, Christopher↗

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗