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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Fairfax Water Resources: Estimating Urban Flood Susceptibility, Historical Flooding Extent, and Land Cover Change in Fairfax County, Virginia to Aid in Flood Mitigation Planning

Between 2000 and 2020, Fairfax County, Virginia experienced extreme weather events that caused severe flooding and degradation of roads, businesses, and other public property. A single flood event on July 8th, 2019 resulted in $14.8 million in damages. These flood events routinely impact the community, often resulting in power outages, school closures, and downed trees. The Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services partnered with DEVELOP to explore how remotely sensed data could be integrated to support its current flood mitigation efforts. This project used environmental factors such as elevation, slope, and topographic wetness index from Earth observation derived data to map flood susceptibility. We utilized Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to map historic flooding events in Fairfax County. These maps will support flood management practices for the Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services through the integration of remotely sensed data. Our results show that developed areas in the county are more susceptible to flooding, coinciding with analysis of flood factors, which indicated that imperviousness and tree canopy were the most influential drivers in flood susceptibility. Other results show that using Earth observations to map historical flooding is limited in urban areas due to false positives from SAR imagery between water and shadows. Further research is necessary to evolve the historical flood mapping technique if Earth observations are to be incorporated in future historical flood analysis.

Kaitlynn Hietpas↗
NASA NTRS2003

Flood warnings, flood disaster assessments, and flood hazard reduction : the roles of orbital remote sensing

Orbital remote sensing is now poised to make three fundamental contributions towards reducing the detrimental effects of extreme floods. Effective Flood warning requires frequent (near-daily) radar observation of the Earth's surface through cloud cover. In contrast, both optical and radar wavelengths will increasingly be used for disaster assessment and hazard reduction. These latter tasks are accomplished, in part, by accurate mapping of flooded lands and commonly over periods of several days or more. We use radar scatterometer data from QuikSCAT to detect changes in surface water area and with a full global coverage every 2.5 days. Also, MODIS, RADARSAT, and other higher spatial resolution data are used for flood mapping and other flood measurements. These records are preserved in a global flood hazard atlas at http://www.dartmouth.edu/-floods/Atlas.html.

Shabaneh, Tamer B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Colombia Mi Pronostico Flood Application: Updating and Improving the Mi Pronostico Flood Web Application to Include an Assessment of Flood Risk

Colombia is a country with highly variable terrain, from the Andes Mountains to plains and coastal areas, many of these areas are prone to flooding disasters. To identify these risk areas NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) for the study region. The preliminary risk assessment was applied to a pilot study area, the La Mosca River basin. Precipitation data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s near-real-time rainfall products as well as precipitation data from the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, IDEAM) and stations in the La Mosca River Basin were used to create rainfall distribution maps for the region. Using the precipitation data and the ASTER DEM, the web application, Mi Pronóstico, run by IDEAM, was updated to include an interactive map which currently allows users to search for a location and view the vulnerability and current weather and flooding conditions. The geospatial information was linked to an early warning system in Mi Pronóstico that can alert the public of flood warnings and identify locations of nearby shelters.

Rushley, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS2003

Flood warnings, flood disaster assessments, and flood hazard reduction: the roles of orbital remote sensing

Orbital remote sensing of the Earth is now poised to make three fundamental contributions towards reducing the detrimental effects of extreme floods. Effective Flood warning requires frequent radar observation of the Earth's surface through cloud cover. In contrast, both optical and radar wavelengths will increasingly be used for disaster assessment and hazard reduction.

floods↗
NASA NTRS1999

Polarization Reversal Over Flooded Regions and Applications to Large-Scale Flood Mapping with Spaceborne Scatterometers

We present the polarization reversal in backscatter over flooded land regions, and demonstrate for the first time the utility of spaceborne Ku-band scatterometer for large-scale flood mapping. Scatterometer data were collected over the globe by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) operated at 14 GHz on the Japanese ADEOS spacecraft from September 1996 to June 1997. During this time span, several severe floods occurred. Over most land surface, vertical polarization backscatter (Sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) is larger than horizontal polarization backscatter (sigma(sub hh)). Such polarization characteristics is reversed and sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) is smaller than sigma(sub hh) over flooded regions, except under a dense forest canopy. The total backscatter from the flooded landscape consists of direct backscatter and boundary-interaction backscatter. The direct term is contributed by direct backscattering from objects protruding above the water surface, and by backscattering from waves on the water surface. The boundary-interaction term is contributed by the forward scattering from the protruding objects and then reflected from the water surface, and also by the forward scattering from these objects after the water-surface reflection. Over flooded regions, the boundary-interaction term is dominant at large incidence angles and the strong water-surface reflection is much larger for horizontal polarization than the vertical one due to the Brewster effect in transverse-magnetic waves. These scattering mechanisms cause the polarization reversal over flooded regions. An example obtained with the Analytic Wave Theory is used to illustrate the scattering mechanisms leading to the polarization reversal. We then demonstrate the utility of spaceborne Ku-band scatterometer for large-scale flood mapping. We process NSCAT data to obtain the polarization ratio sigma(sub hh)/sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) with colocated data at incidence angles larger than 40 deg. The results over Asian summer monsoon regions in September-October 1996 indicate flooded areas in many countries such as Bangladesh, India, Lao, Vietnam, Cambodia, and China. Reports documented by the United Nation Department of Humanitarian Affairs (now called UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) show loss of many lives and severe flood related damages which affected many million people in the corresponding flooded areas. We also map the NSCAT polarization ratio over the same regions in the "dry season" in January 1997 as a reference to confirm our results. Furthermore, we obtain concurrent ocean wind fields also derived from NSCAT data, and Asia topographic data (USGS GTOPO30) to investigate the flooded area. The results show that winds during summer monsoon season blowing inland, which perplex flood problems. Overlaying the topographic map over NSCAT results reveals an excellent correspondence between the confinement of flooded area within the relevant topographic features, which very well illustrates the value of topographic wetness index. Finally, we discuss the applications of future spaceborne scatterometers, including QuikSCAT and Seawinds, for flood mapping over the globe.

Nghiem, Son V.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Analysis of Using Satellite Soil Moisture Observations for Flood Detection, Evaluating Over the Thailand’s Great Flood of 2011

A flood monitoring and warning system provides critical information that can protect property and save lives. A basin-scale flood monitoring system requires an effective observation platform that offers extensive ground coverage of flood conditions, low latency, and high spatiotemporal resolution. While satellite imagery offers substantial spatial flood extent in detail due to its high spatial resolution, the coarse temporal resolution and cloud obstruction limit its near real-time application. Daily soil moisture data derived from satellite sensors at a scale of a few km can be used to monitor extreme wet surface conditions arising in flood occurrences. This study analyses the flood detection capabilities of several sources of soil moisture information, including the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission (SMOS), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E), the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on MetOp, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). In addition to soil moisture, the analysis includes measurements of surface reflectance from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and terrestrial water storage estimates from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) as proxies for flood inundations. The analysis was conducted over the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPB) in Thailand, where the Great Flood of 2011 led to one of the most significant economic losses in the country's history. Satellite-derived soil moisture exhibits a stronger correlation with the flood inundations than the precipitation, model-derived soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage data. SMOS soil moisture observation agrees best with the MODIS-derived flood extent/occurrence, both in terms of spatial distribution and timing, and providing approximated flood lead-time of one week or longer. A neural network constructed from SMOS and MODIS data is used to predict flood intensity/occurrence (given soil moisture input) with a predicted time window from eight days to thirty-two days. The short-term prediction (e.g., eight days) achieves the highest accuracy with an averaged recovery rate of approximately 60% (correlation coefficient). This study's results suggest a potential application of satellite soil moisture data in assisting flood monitoring and warning systems.

Satellite soil moisture↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluating Flood Forecasting System Performance in Cambodia During the 2019 Flood Season

Every year, Cambodia experiences both flash and prolonged riverine flooding as a result of monsoon rains and typhoons. Floods occur frequently in various parts of the region, and result in significant economic cost. Flood forecasting systems are designed to mitigate economic and social impacts, enabling people to prepare for extreme events. However, in order for forecasts to be used effectively, an assessment of the available forecasting systems is needed. In addition, following the onset of flooding, satellite imagery is used to generate flood maps to aid in response efforts. This study demonstrates the performance of regional and global flood forecasting systems over the 2019 flood season. To do this, we assess the flood forecast accuracy at different forecast lead times through a series of forecast verification metrics at gauge locations in Cambodia. We then compare the flood forecast performance to Sentinel 1 flood maps produced by the Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis of Floods (HYDRAFloods) tool currently being co-developed by SERVIR-Mekong in collaboration with the Myanmar Department of Disaster Management. This assessment of the flood forecasting systems’ performance and comparison to generated flood maps helps provide context to forecasters and disaster managers as they make improvements to their models. Additionally, these results provide support to forecast users as they evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different systems for taking action.

Nauman, Claire M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissemination of Global Flood Information Through Nasa Disasters Program Global Initiative for Flood Forecasting and Alerting (GIFFT)

The Global Initiative for Flood Forecasting and Alerting (GIFFT) is an initiative to disseminate flood products from different sensors to global stakeholders via the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC) DisasterAWARE®, the NASA Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. GIFFT will also generate an integrated product(s) using ensembled hydrologic models and Earth observation derived flood outputs to stakeholders globally. This initiative combines the results of several Disasters Program funded projects that focus on flood forecasting, flood severity estimation, post-event flood mapping, flooddepth estimation and resulting flood severity using remote sensing-based flood information derived from SAR and optical imagery. PDC’s DisasterAWARE platform is a global multi-hazard alerting platform that currently incorporatesModel of Models (MoM) outputs as flood “incidents,” visually depicting potential floods in the context ofpopulation and infrastructure that may become affected. Automated procedures are being developed tocategorize MoM outputs as DisasterAWARE “hazards,” allowing for their dissemination to users alongwith other flood products that assess potential impacts. PDC’s stakeholders include UN, DoD, FEMA andtheir equivalents around the world. Additionally, the DisasterALERT mobile platform has 2 million usersworldwide and is a fully functional and sustained platform used to disseminate alerts and analyticalproducts for 18 different hazard types. GIFFT has incorporated HydroSAR products that will bedistributed via DisasterAWARE.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

Adler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2023

Youngstown and Warren Disasters: Mapping Flood Susceptibility, Vulnerability, and Risk and Tree Canopy Coverage in Northern Ohio to Inform Stormwater Management and Flood Mitigation Efforts

Both pluvial and fluvial flooding events pose direct challenges on urban infrastructure and communities across the United States. Heavy rainfall events oversaturate the ground, overflow waterbodies, and overwhelm stormwater infrastructure. Vulnerable areas receive heavy damage from flooding events due to physical factors like increased impervious surfaces, poor stormwater systems, and limited greenspaces. These vulnerable neighborhoods are comprised of aging populations, minority communities, and lower income levels. Lack of data in these communities have made it difficult to implement policymaking and flood mitigation strategies. Using the Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model (InVEST) and the PlanetScope satellite constellation, the team visualized historical flooding and tree canopy coverage as a measure of flood susceptibility. The team also used the Arc-Malstrom model to provide further insight into where flooding accumulates via surface elevation depressions in the study area. To validate these models, the team explored the spatial variation of rainfall events using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG). The resulting maps highlight areas surrounding the cities of Youngstown and Warren as being the most flood susceptible and socially vulnerable, while the city centers contain the lowest tree canopy coverage. The DEVELOP team collaborated with the Environmental Collaborative of Ohio (ECO) to create products for end users within the City of Warren’s Water Pollution Control Department, the Eastgate Regional Council of Governments and the Healthy Community Partnership of Mahoning Valley. These products help identify target areas for preventative flood mitigation measures as well as areas ideal for green infrastructure intervention.

InVEST Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing the Drivers of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Milwaukee using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model (InVEST)

Milwaukee County has experienced an increase in flooding due to climate change and urbanization. The frequency and severity of flooding vary spatially due to differences in land cover, surface permeability, and infrastructure. Marginalized communities tend to experience disproportionately high flooding and damage due to infrastructural inequalities and limited access to resources. To quantify these differences, we used the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model to calculate and create maps of runoff retention, nominal flood depth, and economic damage to buildings in Milwaukee. Our model inputs included land cover, surface permeability, and rainfall. To inform our precipitation inputs, we used NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) and National Weather Service (NWS) data. We assessed the relationship between flood risk and social and environmental spatial data including redlining, racial demographics, greenspace, and community resilience. The data demonstrate that flood risk is higher in historically redlined neighborhoods, majority Hispanic and Black census block groups, areas that lack parks and trees, and areas of low community resilience as measured by the Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates (CRE). These findings will support our partners, Groundwork Milwaukee and Groundwork USA, in their efforts to promote the equitable distribution of resources and support environmental health in urban spaces. The end products of this project provide our partners with tools to assess urban flooding vulnerability, guide future intervention projects, quantify the effects of environmental injustice, and improve stakeholder access to data.

Madeleine Tango↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating near-real time satellite flood mapping for humanitarian early action: a case study on the 2020 Cambodia floods

Forecast-based early action is an increasingly popular framework advocating for the use of numerical weather prediction to set objective, automatic conditions for roll-out of proactive flood risk reduction efforts. Within this field, there is a relatively young discourse regarding the potential value of satellite Earth observations and the optimal role that remote sensing should play in improving the efficacy and value of forecast-based early action for flood management. The Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis for Floods tool (HYDRAFloods) was developed to provide automated, near real-time satellite-based flood extent maps to local governments, disaster managers, and humanitarian organizations. This research evaluates (a.) whether HYDRAFloods satisfactorily met needs identified by humanitarian partners during the October 2020 floods in Cambodia, and (b.) whether the novel additions of near real-time data and flood extent mapping resulted in demonstrable advantages over previous forecast-based flood early action systems as identified in the literature. From these results, the authors identify the technological and logistical limitations of the HYDRAFloods methodology and synthesize actionable recommendations for Earth observations practitioners seeking to better support forecast-based early action.

floods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effectiveness of nature-based solutions to reduce flooding in Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA) using SWMM-HEC based flood model

Nature-based solutions (NbS) have gained significant attention as strategies for addressing urban environmental challenges, particularly since the establishment of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. However, the current research on NbS for urban flood management lacks comprehensive methodological approaches for identifying suitable areas and evaluating their effectiveness across different urban settings. Here, this study attempts to fill this gap by proposing a methodological framework integrating multi-criteria analysis with a SWMM-HEC-based hydrologic and hydraulic (HH) model to assess the suitability of NbS for the Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA), consisting of Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, and Rock Island. Eight NbS options-green roofs, rain gardens, infiltration trenches, permeable pavements, vegetative swales, dry detention basins, retention ponds, and rain barrels/cisterns - were considered based on volumetric efficiency and runoff reduction efficiency. The study reveals that implementing the proposed NbS could have substantially reduced flood depths in key historical flood events by 21% in 1993, 15% in 2008, 16% in 2011, 23% in 2014, 40% in 2019, and 10% in 2023. The findings highlight a critical trade-off between peak runoff and NbS implementation: while NbS effectively reduce flood impacts, they also enhance volumetric efficiency by approximately 43%. In high-density areas of the QCMA, flood depth reductions of around 20% suggest that NbS are a viable solution for dense urban environments with limited space. This shows the potential for integrating NbS into existing infrastructure, offering a promising approach for cities facing increasing flooding risks. The proposed methodology provides a practical framework for incorporating NbS into urban stormwater management, addressing gaps in optimizing NbS performance, and offering a pathway to scale their application in other urban areas with various environmental and social contexts.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Synoptic Pattern Evolution for Flash‐Flood‐Producing and Non‐Flash‐Flood‐Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Understanding how the short-term evolution of synoptic weather patterns influence Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is essential, as these systems are responsible for over half of central U.S. flash floods, leading to substantial socioeconomic and water resource management impacts. This study analyzes long-term MCS data, flash flood reports, and atmospheric reanalyses from 2007 to 2017 using a machine learning clustering algorithm to examine how the synoptic weather patterns evolve prior to MCS initiation. While the clusters reflect seasonal and regional differences in MCS occurrence, they do not consistently distinguish between MCSs that do and do not produce flash floods. Systems in the southern Great Plains are more flood-prone when a synoptic-scale forcing, located near the system, drives strong water vapor transport from the nearby moisture source. More generally under different synoptic weather patterns, a broader precipitating area is the most dominant factor governing MCS flash flood potential.

atmospheric dynamics↗