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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification of fireball features extracted from nuclear test films using computer vision

Films from the US’s historic nuclear testing era comprise the only extensive collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into the characteristics of flows occurring on scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models used to describe nuclear detonations. In recent work, we implemented modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to extract features of the fireball following nuclear detonation. With a training dataset of fireball films, we fine-tuned a You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) model to detect and track the fireball. Applied to a video, the outer bounding box produced in each frame by YOLO11 is used as an input prompt to Meta’s Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2), which is shown to accurately predict the boundary of the fireball over time with high resolution. These state-of-the-art computer vision foundation models exhibit impressive visual accuracy in their results but lack an output of values that robustly quantify uncertainty in scientific applications. In this paper, we develop procedures for uncertainty quantification of extracted fireball features. We outline the application of a parallel attention mechanism to calculate uncertainty ranges that complement and better pose model validation data. This higher quality fireball validation data may serve to improve prognostic models describing nuclear detonations in support of nuclear forensic and emergency response activities.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visualization of Hemispherical Post‐Detonation Fireball Internal Structures

Hemispherical charges are initiated above a transparent plate in a half‐plane configuration, allowing optical access to the internal regions of the luminous fireball. High‐speed visualization enables characterization of the internal luminous structure, showing clearly the bright shell and dark core regions. Spectroscopic and pyrometric diagnostics are applied to these flows, generating quantitative information on the spatial distribution of temperature inside the fireball. Both cased and uncased charges can be examined using this methodology, and several different high explosives are tested. This approach can be useful in validation of detailed explosive fireball models. Initial comparisons with such models are presented.

detonation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visualization of post-detonation fireball flowfields and comparison to CFD modeling

Visualization of flow structures within post-detonation fireballs has been performed for benchmark validation of numerical simulations. Custom pressed PETN explosives with a 12-mm diameter hemispherical form factor were used to produce a spherically symmetric post-detonation flow with low soot yield. Hydroxyl-radical planar laser induce fluorescence (OH-PLIF) was employed to visualize the structure ranging from approximately 10 μs to 35 μs after shock breakout from the explosive pellet. Fireball simulations were performed using the HyBurn Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) package. Experimental OH-PLIF results were compared to synthetic OH-PLIF from post-processing of CFD simulations. From the comparison of experimental and synthetic OH-PLIF images, CFD is shown to replicate much of the flow structure observed in the experiments, revealing potential differences in turbulent length scales and OH kinetics. Furthermore, results provide significant advancement in experimental resolution of these harsh turbulent combustion environments and validate physical models thereof.

Detonator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fireball antinucleosynthesis

The tentative identification of approximately ten relativistic antihelium ( He ¯ ) cosmic-ray events at AMS-02 would, if confirmed, challenge our understanding of the astrophysical synthesis of heavy antinuclei. We propose a novel scenario for the enhanced production of such antinuclei that is triggered by isolated, catastrophic injections of large quantities of energetic Standard Model (SM) antiquarks in our galaxy by physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM). We demonstrate that SM antinucleosynthetic processes that occur in the resulting rapidly expanding, thermalized fireballs of SM plasma can, for a reasonable range of parameters, produce the reported tentative ∼ 2 : 1 ratio of He ¯ 3 to He ¯ 4 events at AMS-02, as well as their relativistic boosts. Moreover, we show that this can be achieved without violating antideuterium or antiproton flux constraints for the appropriate antihelium fluxes. A plausible BSM paradigm for the catastrophic injections is the collision of macroscopic composite dark-matter objects carrying large net antibaryon number. Such a scenario would require these objects to be cosmologically stable, but to destabilize upon collision, promptly releasing a fraction of their mass energy into SM antiparticles within a tiny volume. We show that, in principle, the injection rate needed to attain the necessary antihelium fluxes and the energetic conditions required to seed the fireballs appear possible to obtain in such a paradigm. We leave open the question of constructing a BSM particle physics model to realize this, but we suggest two concrete scenarios as promising targets for further investigation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Fireball Database

Fireballs (bolides) are high-energy luminous phenomena produced when meteoroids and small asteroids enter Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, often resulting in fragmentation or complete disintegration accompanied by significant energy release. The resulting bolide light curves capture temporal brightness variations as these objects traverse increasingly dense atmospheric layers, providing essential information on meteoroid entry dynamics, fragmentation behavior, and atmospheric energy deposition processes. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies’ (CNEOS) continuously expanding fireball database offers a globally comprehensive archive of bolide events, including light curves and associated metadata. Events associated with infrasound detections allow direct correlations between acoustic signatures and light curve features, therefore enabling detailed analyses of fragmentation dynamics and energy deposition. Here, we introduce Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer (BLADE), a robust and high-fidelity framework specifically designed to analyze bolide light curves for objects detected from space. BLADE incorporates a processing pipeline integrating Savitzky–Golay filtering, prominence-based peak detection, and gradient analysis, enabling systematic identification and classification of fragmentation events and their associated energy release characteristics. Preliminary results demonstrate that BLADE reliably distinguishes distinct bolide behaviors, providing an objective, scalable methodology for characterization and analysis of large bolide light curve data sets. This foundational work establishes a novel pathway for advanced bolide research, with promising applications in planetary defense and global atmospheric monitoring. Future research should adopt an integrative approach combining CNEOS optical data with complementary infrasound measurements, further clarifying relationships between bolide energy deposition and acoustic signatures, thus refining our understanding of meteoroid and asteroid atmospheric entry processes.

Asteroids↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense

On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.

Fireball↗
DOE OSTI2026

Shock wave formation in the thermosphere by an earthgrazing fireball: Empirical evidence for volatile-enhanced hydrodynamic shielding

Hydrodynamic shielding is a theoretically well-established but observationally elusive and experimentally difficult-to-replicate phenomenon with implications that extend far beyond meteor physics. Rare earthgrazing meteoroids with infrasound signatures that penetrate to the ground can be used to probe hydrodynamic shielding that leads to strong shock formation at high altitude. Here, we report the first coordinated optical and multi-station infrasound observations of a centimeter-scale earthgrazing fireball that generated sustained cylindrical line shock at thermospheric altitudes near 92 km. The event was recorded by numerous optical stations and three infrasound arrays, allowing trajectory reconstruction, ablation behavior, acoustic source localization, and shock characteristics. Optical observations indicate early mechanical erosion and ablation/evaporation at exceptionally low dynamic pressure, consistent with a cometary or a porous, volatile-bearing CM chondritic object. Independent infrasound detections localize shock generation to multiple points along a 164 km trajectory segment near perigee. Weak-shock modeling yields a consistent blast radius of ∼30 m, implying an acoustic-equivalent source size far exceeding the physical dimensions of the ∼45 g nucleus. We demonstrate that classical gas dynamics and ablation-driven hydrodynamic shielding alone cannot account for these observations under ambient thermospheric conditions. We show that volatile release provides the additional flow-field density enhancement required to amplify hydrodynamic shielding, reduce the effective local Knudsen number, and sustain a shock envelope capable of radiating detectable infrasound. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that small, volatile-rich meteoroids can transiently establish continuum-like flow in rarefied environments.

Astrometry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Laser absorption measurements of temperature, pressure, CO, and CO 2 at near-MHz rates in post-detonation fireballs with comparison to synthetic measurements

A laser absorption spectroscopy (LAS) diagnostic was used to obtain measurements of temperature, pressure, CO, and CO 2 at 500 kHz or 1 MHz in post-detonation fireballs produced by hemispherical samples of pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). A quantum-cascade laser was scanned over multiple CO absorption transitions near 2008.5 cm −1 at 1 MHz, while an interband-cascade laser was scanned over a CO 2 absorption transition near 2394.8 cm −1 at 500 kHz. Light from each laser was combined onto a single path and passed through a detonation chamber approximately 83 mm above the 12-mm diameter hemispherical PETN charge. The CO and CO 2 absorption signals were post-processed to obtain time histories of temperature, pressure, species column pressures (P CO L, P CO2 L), and species column mole fractions (X CO L, X CO2 L). Additionally, schlieren imaging was performed simultaneously at 500 kHz to aid interpretation of the LAS measurements. Experimental and synthetic (i.e., CFD based) LAS measurements were compared to evaluate the accuracy of the CFD model and its ability to model the turbulent afterburning of the detonation products in air. In general, the experimental measurements exhibit reasonable agreement with the synthetic measurements at early times; thereby supporting the accuracy of the CFD model. Periods of disagreement between experimental and synthetic measurements at later times are most likely due to a reflected shock and detonator cavity jetting, which are not accounted for in the CFD model.

Schwartz, Charles J. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette↗
DOE OSTI2025

High Pressure Measurement of Soot Formation Applicable to Energetic Materials Fireballs

The addition of hydrogen and oxygen to a hydrocarbon fuel mixture has a significant effect on its sooting tendencies at high pressures. Understanding the mechanism behind the formation of soot is key to proper chemical modeling of fireballs. The objective of this research is to investigate formation rates and soot induction times of intermediary chemicals resulting from energetic material combustion. Three intermediaries, acetylene (C2H2), ethylene (C2H4), and propyne (C3H4-P) are studied. Here, a laser spectroscopy system was utilized to measure soot formation, induction time, and detail the time histories of soot experiments performed using the University of Central Florida high pressure shock tube facility.

Loye, Timothy [University of Central Florida, Orla↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-sensor Observations of a High-velocity Fireball over the South Atlantic on 2026 April 1

A high-velocity fireball was detected over the South Atlantic (41.9°S, 54.7°W) on 2026 April 1 at 02:13:14 UTC by U.S. Government (USG) sensors, with peak brightness at 90.5 km altitude. The event was well-observed from geostationary orbit by two civilian lightning imagers with near-orthogonal geometry, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-East Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Meteosat Third Generation Imager 1 Lightning Imager, and it produced low-frequency acoustic signatures. The GLM measured a total radiated energy of 2.4 × 10 10 J, corresponding to a calculated impact energy of 0.086 kt TNT equivalent. Stereoscopic triangulation of the imager tracks yields an independent pre-atmospheric velocity of ~57 km s −1 , some 18% below the USG-reported value. Because orbital provenance is acutely sensitive to the entry velocity, whose reported uncertainty could be substantial, this discrepancy is notable. We document the multi-sensor record and identify the analysis required to assess provenance, which a subsequent study will present.

Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Lab. (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synchrotron self-Compton in a radiative-adiabatic fireball scenario: modelling the multiwavelength observations in some Fermi /LAT bursts

Energetic GeV photons expected from the closest and the most energetic Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) provide a unique opportunity to study the very-high-energy emission as well as the possible correlations with lower energy bands in realistic GRB afterglow models. In the standard GRB afterglow model, the relativistic homogeneous shock is usually considered to be fully adiabatic, however, it could be partially radiative. Based on the external forward-shock scenario in both stellar wind and constant-density medium, we present a radiative-adiabatic analytical model of the synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) and synchrotron processes considering an electron energy distribution with a power-law index of $1\lt p\lt 2$ and $2\le p$. We show that the SSC scenario plays a relevant role in the radiative parameter $\epsilon$, leading to a prolonged evolution during the slow cooling regime. In a particular case, we derive the Fermi/LAT light curves together with the photons with energies $\ge 100$ MeV in a sample of nine bursts from the second Fermi/LAT GRB catalogue that exhibited temporal and spectral indices with $\gtrsim 1.5$ and $\approx 2$, respectively. These events can hardly be described with closure relations of the standard synchrotron afterglow model, and also exhibit energetic photons above the synchrotron limit. We have modelled the multiwavelength observations of our sample to constrain the microphysical parameters, the circumburst density, the bulk Lorentz factor, and the mechanism responsible for explaining the energetic GeV photons.

acceleration of particles↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Infrasonic Signatures of Earth-Grazing Fireballs as Analogues to Hypersonic Vehicles (Final Report)

Accurate detection, discrimination, and characterization of high-altitude hypersonic events using infrasonic monitoring are critical to planetary defense and global strategic surveillance. This report synthesizes recent advances achieved through rigorous analysis of infrasonic signatures from natural meteoroids, emphasizing shallow entry-angle meteoroids as essentially proxies for artificial hypersonic systems. Meteoroids naturally encompass diverse velocities, trajectories, altitudes, and fragmentation behaviors, enabling systematic validation of empirical period–yield relationships, waveform morphology classifiers, and trajectory-induced back-azimuth deviation models. Integration of adaptive array-processing enhancements within Cardinal software further extends infrasonic detection sensitivity and signal classification reliability. Collectively these advances, based solely on infrasonic signatures or limited optical data, offer robust methodologies for distinguishing natural from artificial hypersonic sources, significantly reducing event geolocation uncertainties and refining source-function determination. The outcomes detailed herein lay foundational groundwork for improved global hypersonic event-surveillance frameworks, supporting improved security preparedness and informing strategic monitoring and defense policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗