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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

System capacity and economic modeling computer tool for satellite mobile communications systems

A unique computer modeling tool that combines an engineering tool with a financial analysis program is described. The resulting combination yields a flexible economic model that can predict the cost effectiveness of various mobile systems. Cost modeling is necessary in order to ascertain if a given system with a finite satellite resource is capable of supporting itself financially and to determine what services can be supported. Personal computer techniques using Lotus 123 are used for the model in order to provide as universal an application as possible such that the model can be used and modified to fit many situations and conditions. The output of the engineering portion of the model consists of a channel capacity analysis and link calculations for several qualities of service using up to 16 types of earth terminal configurations. The outputs of the financial model are a revenue analysis, an income statement, and a cost model validation section.

Wiedeman, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model with an Application to a Geothermal Reservoir at Heber, California

A financial accounting model that incorporates physical and institutional uncertainties was developed for geothermal projects. Among the uncertainties it can handle are well depth, flow rate, fluid temperature, and permit and construction times. The outputs of the model are cumulative probability distributions of financial measures such as capital cost, levelized cost, and profit. These outputs are well suited for use in an investment decision incorporating risk. The model has the powerful feature that conditional probability distribution can be used to account for correlations among any of the input variables. The model has been applied to a geothermal reservoir at Heber, California, for a 45-MW binary electric plant. Under the assumptions made, the reservoir appears to be economically viable.

Orren, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The cost of energy from utility-owned solar electric systems. A required revenue methodology for ERDA/EPRI evaluations

This methodology calculates the electric energy busbar cost from a utility-owned solar electric system. This approach is applicable to both publicly- and privately-owned utilities. Busbar cost represents the minimum price per unit of energy consistent with producing system-resultant revenues equal to the sum of system-resultant costs. This equality is expressed in present value terms, where the discount rate used reflects the rate of return required on invested capital. Major input variables describe the output capabilities and capital cost of the energy system, the cash flows required for system operation amd maintenance, and the financial structure and tax environment of the utility.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Forecasting solar flux directly from its chaotic time series

The mathematical structure of the programs written to construct a nonlinear predictive model to forecast solar flux directly from its time series without reference to any underlying solar physics is presented. This method and the programs are written so that one could apply the same technique to forecast other chaotic time series, such as geomagnetic data, attitude and orbit data, and even financial indexes and stock market data. Perhaps the most important application of this technique to flight dynamics is to model Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) output of residues between observed position of spacecraft and calculated position with no drag (drag flag = off). This would result in a new model of drag working directly from observed data.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Regional applicability and potential of salt-gradient solar ponds in the United States. Volume 2: Detailed report

A comprehensive assessment of the regional applicability and potential of salt-gradient solar ponds in the United States is provided. The assessment is focused on the general characteristics of twelve defined geographic regions. Natural resources essential to solar ponds are surveyed. Meteorological and hydrogeological conditions affecting pond performance are examined. Potentially favorable pond sites are identified. Regional thermal and electrical energy output from solar ponds is calculated. Selected pond design cases are studied. Five major potential market sectors are evaluated in terms of technical and energy-consumption characteristics, and solar-pond applicability and potential. Relevant pond system data and financial factors are analyzed. Solar-pond energy costs are compared with conventional energy costs. The assessment concludes that, excepting Alaska, ponds are applicable in all regions for at least two market sectors. Total solar pond energy supply potential in the five market sectors examined is estimated to be 8.94 quads/yr by the year 2000, approximately 7.2% of the projected total national energy demand.

Lin, E. I. H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Understanding Stellar Light Spatial Inhomogeneities and Time Variability

We would like the opportunity to thank NASA for supporting our efforts to construct tools to analyze the spectra of spatially inhomogeneous and temporally varying stellar atmospheres. This financial support has allowed us to a versatile radiative transfer code that can be used for many different applications. With this numerical code we have written a point-and-click analysis package written in IDL that can be used to look extensively at the generated output data. Below we describe the most recent results obtained with our transfer code and list papers that have appeared with these results. Although we have not been able to produce as many time-dependent calculations as we had hoped (mainly because of programmatic reasons; Sasselov took another position halfway through the grant), we believe we have

Uitenbroek, Han↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Capital Productivity in British Airways' Financial Recovery

British Airways (BA) was privatised in 1987, but its financial recovery occurred a number of years earlier. This recovery was sustained throughout the early 1990s economic recession, a period when few major airlines were operating profitably. This paper examines the role of productivity developments at British Airways from the early 1980s through 1996. The emphasis is on capital productivity and investment, but changes in capital intensity and labour productivity are also evaluated. Various measures are considered for both capital and labour productivity: outputs are measured in available tonne-kms (ATKS) and revenue tonne-kms (RTKs), with the former preferred over the latter two measures, after adjustment for work performed by BA for others. Capital inputs are measured in equivalent lease costs adjusted to constant prices with a different treatment of flight and ground equipment or assets. Labour inputs are derived from total payroll costs deflated by a UK wage price index. The airline made considerable capital investments over the period and at the same time went through two major processes of labour restructuring. This resulted in a gradual increase in capital intensity, relative high labour productivity growth, but poor capital productivity performance. However, capital investment played an important role in the airline's sustained labour and total factor productivity over the whole period.

Morrell, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Capital Productivity in British Airways' Financial Recovery

British Airways (BA) was privatized in 1987, but its financial recovery occurred a number of years earlier, This recovery was sustained throughout the early 1990s economic recession, a period when few major airlines were operating profitably. This paper examines the role of productivity developments at British Airways from the early 1980s through 1996. The emphasis is on capital productivity and investment, but changes in capital intensity and labour productivity are also evaluated. Various measures are considered for both capital and labour productivity: outputs are measured in available tonne-kms (ATKs) and revenue tonne-kms (RTKs), with the former preferred over the latter two measures, after adjustment for work performed by BA for others. Capital inputs are measured in equivalent lease costs adjusted to constant prices with a different treatment of flight and ground equipment or assets. Labour inputs are derived from total payroll costs deflated by a UK wage price index. The airline made considerable capital investments over the period and at the same time went through two major processes of labour restructuring. This resulted in a gradual increase in capital intensity, relative high labour productivity growth, but poor capital productivity performance, However, capital investment played an important role in the airline's sustained labour and total factor productivity over the whole period.

Morrell, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2003

Method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system such as a flight vehicle

A method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system having sensors for measuring state variables and providing corresponding output signals in response to one or more system input signals are provided. The method includes calculating estimated gains of a filter and selecting an appropriate linear model for processing the output signals based on the input signals. The step of calculating utilizes one or more models of the dynamic system to obtain estimated signals. The method further includes calculating output error residuals based on the output signals and the estimated signals. The method also includes detecting one or more hypothesized failures or performance degradations of a component or subsystem of the dynamic system based on the error residuals. The step of calculating the estimated values is performed optimally with respect to one or more of: noise, uncertainty of parameters of the models and un-modeled dynamics of the dynamic system which may be a flight vehicle or financial market or modeled financial system.

Miller, Robert H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Computer analysis of effects of altering jet fuel properties on refinery costs and yields

This study was undertaken to evaluate the adequacy of future U.S. jet fuel supplies, the potential for large increases in the cost of jet fuel, and to what extent a relaxation in jet fuel properties would remedy these potential problems. The results of the study indicate that refiners should be able to meet jet fuel output requirements in all regions of the country within the current Jet A specifications during the 1990-2010 period. The results also indicate that it will be more difficult to meet Jet A specifications on the West Coast, because the feedstock quality is worse and the required jet fuel yield (jet fuel/crude refined) is higher than in the East. The results show that jet fuel production costs could be reduced by relaxing fuel properties. Potential cost savings in the East (PADDs I-IV) through property relaxation were found to be about 1.3 cents/liter (5 cents/gallon) in January 1, 1981 dollars between 1990 and 2010. However, the savings from property relaxation were all obtained within the range of current Jet A specifications, so there is no financial incentive to relax Jet A fuel specifications in the East. In the West (PADD V) the potential cost savings from lowering fuel quality were considerably greater than in the East. Cost savings from 2.7 to 3.7 cents/liter (10-14 cents/gallon) were found. In contrast to the East, on the West Coast a significant part of the savings was obtained through relaxation of the current Jet A fuel specifications.

Breton, T.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Six Lessons We Learned Applying Six Sigma

As Chief Financial Officer of Kennedy Space Center (KSC), I'm not only responsible for financial planning and accounting but also for building strong partnerships with the CFO customers, who include Space Shuttle and International Space Station operations as well all who manage the KSC Spaceport. My never ending goal is to design, manage and continuously improve our core business processes so that they deliver world class products and services to the CFO's customers. I became interested in Six Sigma as Christa Casleton (KSC's first Six Sigma Black belt) applied Six Sigma tools and methods to our Plan and Account for Travel Costs Process. Her analysis was fresh, innovative and thorough but, even more impressive, was her approach to ensure ongoing, continuous process improvement. Encouraged by the results, I launched two more process improvement initiatives aimed at applying Six Sigma principles to CFO processes that not only touch most of my employees but also have direct customer impact. As many of you know, Six Sigma is a measurement scale that compares the output of a process with customer requirements. That's straight forward, but demands that you not only understand your processes but also know your products and the critical customer requirements. The objective is to isolate and eliminate the causes of process variation so that the customer sees consistently high quality.

Carroll, Napoleon↗
NASA NTRS2002

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization Using WAVE

The current preliminary design tools lack the product performance, quality and cost prediction fidelity required to design Six Sigma products. They are also frequently incompatible with the tools used in detailed design, leading to a great deal of rework and lost or discarded data in the transition from preliminary to detailed design. Thus, enhanced preliminary design tools are needed in order to produce adequate financial returns to the business. To achieve this goal, GEAE has focused on building the preliminary design system around the same geometric 3D solid model that will be used in detailed design. With this approach, the preliminary designer will no longer convert a flowpath sketch into an engine cross section but rather, automatically create 3D solid geometry for structural integrity, life, weight, cost, complexity, producibility, and maintainability assessments. Likewise, both the preliminary design and the detailed design can benefit from the use of the same preliminary part sizing routines. The design analysis tools will also be integrated with the 3D solid model to eliminate manual transfer of data between programs. GEAE has aggressively pursued the computerized control of engineering knowledge for many years. Through its study and validation of 3D CAD programs and processes, GEAE concluded that total system control was not feasible at that time. Prior CAD tools focused exclusively on detail part geometry and Knowledge Based Engineering systems concentrated on rules input and data output. A system was needed to bridge the gap between the two to capture the total system. With the introduction of WAVE Engineering from UGS, the possibilities of an engineering system control device began to formulate. GEAE decided to investigate the new WAVE functionality to accomplish this task. NASA joined GEAE in funding this validation project through Task Order No. 1. With the validation project complete, the second phase under Task Order No. 2 was established to develop an associative control structure (framework) in the UG WAVE environment enabling multi-disciplinary design of turbine propulsion systems. The capabilities of WAVE were evaluated to assess its use as a rapid optimization and productivity tool. This project also identified future WAVE product enhancements that will make the tool still more beneficial for product development.

Irwin, Keith↗
NASA NTRS2002

REACH: Real-Time Data Awareness in Multi-Spacecraft Missions

Missions have been proposed that will use multiple spacecraft to perform scientific or commercial tasks. Indeed, in the commercial world, some spacecraft constellations already exist. Aside from the technical challenges of constructing and flying these missions, there is also the financial challenge presented by the tradition model of the flight operations team (FOT) when it is applied to a constellation mission. Proposed constellation missions range in size from three spacecraft to more than 50. If the current ratio of three-to-five FOT personnel per spacecraft is maintained, the size of the FOT becomes cost prohibitive. The Advanced Architectures and Automation Branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC Code 588) saw the potential to reduce the cost of these missions by creating new user interfaces to the ground system health-and-safety data. The goal is to enable a smaller FOT to remain aware and responsive to the increased amount of ground system information in a multi-spacecraft environment. Rather than abandon the tried and true, these interfaces were developed to run alongside existing ground system software to provide additional support to the FOT. These new user interfaces have been combined in a tool called REACH. REACH-the Real-time Evaluation and Analysis of Consolidated Health-is a software product that uses advanced visualization techniques to make spacecraft anomalies easy to spot, no matter how many spacecraft are in the constellation. REACH reads a real-time stream of data from the ground system and displays it to the FOT such that anomalies are easy to pick out and investigate. Data visualization has been used in ground system operations for many years. To provide a unique visualization tool, we developed a unique source of data to visualize: the REACH Health Model Engine. The Health Model Engine is rule-based software that receives real-time telemetry information and outputs "health" information related to the subsystems and spacecraft that the telemetry belong to. The Health Engine can run out-of-the-box or can be tailored with a scripting language. Out of the box, it uses limit violations to determine the health of subsystems and spacecraft; when tailored, it determines health using equations combining the values and limits of any telemetry in the spacecraft. The REACH visualizations then "roll up" the information from the Health Engine into high level, summary displays. These summary visualizations can be "zoomed" into for increasing levels of detail. Currently REACH is installed in the Small Explorer (SMEX) lab at GSFC, and is monitoring three of their five spacecraft. We are scheduled to install REACH in the Mid-sized Explorer (MIDEX) lab, which will allow us to monitor up to six more spacecraft. The process of installing and using our "research" software in an operational environment has provided many insights into which parts of REACH are a step forward and which of our ideas are missteps. Our paper explores both the new concepts in spacecraft health-and-safety visualization, the difficulties of such systems in the operational environment, and the cost and safety issues of multi-spacecraft missions.

Maks, Lori↗