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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Based Approaches for Fault Detection, Prognostics, Decision Making in Complex Systems

The presentation discusses application of model based approaches to complex systems. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗
NASA NTRS2009

Fault Diagnostics and Prognostics for Large Segmented SRMs

We report progress in development of the fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) system for large segmented solid rocket motors (SRMs). The model includes the following main components: (i) 1D dynamical model of internal ballistics of SRMs; (ii) surface regression model for the propellant taking into account erosive burning; (iii) model of the propellant geometry; (iv) model of the nozzle ablation; (v) model of a hole burning through in the SRM steel case. The model is verified by comparison of the spatially resolved time traces of the flow parameters obtained in simulations with the results of the simulations obtained using high-fidelity 2D FLUENT model (developed by the third party). To develop FD&P system of a case breach fault for a large segmented rocket we notice [1] that the stationary zero-dimensional approximation for the nozzle stagnation pressure is surprisingly accurate even when stagnation pressure varies significantly in time during burning tail-off. This was also found to be true for the case breach fault [2]. These results allow us to use the FD&P developed in our earlier research [3]-[6] by substituting head stagnation pressure with nozzle stagnation pressure. The axial corrections to the value of the side thrust due to the mass addition are taken into account by solving a system of ODEs in spatial dimension.

Luchinsky, Dmitry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Platform for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Mercury Process System at the Target System in the Spallation Neutron Source

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory accelerates proton beams, which are directed toward a mercury target to generate the world’s most intense neutron beams via spallation. The target system consists of several interconnected subsystems and accounts for a major share of the facility’s overall downtime. Early detection of anomalies in the target system response can thus provide the possibility of taking corrective actions to reduce downtime. Accelerator facilities have largely focused on the beam side for data-driven fault prognostics. On the target side, SNS relies on operational shift technicians (OSTs), who respond to alarms and manually flag anomalies onto the System Tracking and Reliability (STAR) platform. This paper presents one of the first studies of using machine learning (ML) to automate anomaly detection in the target system. The study focused on the mercury process system as the first use case and employed reconstruction-based anomaly detection on minutely sampled time series signals. The pipeline was integrated into the STAR platform to autonomously rank and flag anomalies every week. The STAR platform provides a user interface for the OSTs to evaluate the flagged anomalies, thereby incorporating human feedback.

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automating Anomaly Detection for Target systems at Spallation Neutron Source

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, produces the world’s most intense pulse neutrons beams. An accelerated proton beam is directed into a mercury target to generate neutrons via spallation. The target system accounted for over 40% of the overall downtime of the facility in 2022. Thus, early detection in anomalies in the target systems can enable taking corrective actions to avoid failures and reduce downtime. Fault prognostics and anomaly detection in accelerators, both at SNS and outside, has largely focused on the beam side. This paper presents one the first studies exploring leveraging machine learning to automate the detection of anomalies in the target system. The target system consists of over 30 different interconnected subsystems, and the present work focuses on the mercury process system as a use case. Analyzing data from 28 process variables from 2022 and 2023, tree-based and reconstruction-based algorithms are employed to detect anomalies in archived data. The algorithms detected previously unreported anomalies, several of which were deemed alert worthy by human experts, particularly those found by reconstruction-based algorithms. Using data from each production run in the accelerator increased the generalizability of the models in time. Efforts are now underway to implement a workflow for incorporating human feedback to update the models and evaluating performance on unseen data. The models will eventually be integrated into the existing System Tracking and Reliability system with a web interface for automated anomaly detection and reporting along with a pathway for incorporating human feedback for model updates.

Raj, Anant [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306711244)↗
NASA NTRS2001

NASA IVHM Technology Experiment for X-vehicles (NITEX)

The purpose of the NASA IVHM Technology Experiment for X-vehicles (NITEX) is to advance the development of selected IVHM technologies in a flight environment and to demonstrate the potential for reusable launch vehicle ground processing savings. The technologies to be developed and demonstrated include system-level and detailed diagnostics for real-time fault detection and isolation, prognostics for fault prediction, automated maintenance planning based on diagnostic and prognostic results, and a microelectronics hardware platform. Complete flight The Evolution of Flexible Insulation as IVHM consists of advanced sensors, distributed data acquisition, data processing that includes model-based diagnostics, prognostics and vehicle autonomy for control or suggested action, and advanced data storage. Complete ground IVHM consists of evolved control room architectures, advanced applications including automated maintenance planning and automated ground support equipment. This experiment will advance the development of a subset of complete IVHM.

Sandra, Hayden↗
NASA NTRS2013

Distributed Prognostics and Health Management with a Wireless Network Architecture

A heterogeneous set of system components monitored by a varied suite of sensors and a particle-filtering (PF) framework, with the power and the flexibility to adapt to the different diagnostic and prognostic needs, has been developed. Both the diagnostic and prognostic tasks are formulated as a particle-filtering problem in order to explicitly represent and manage uncertainties in state estimation and remaining life estimation. Current state-of-the-art prognostic health management (PHM) systems are mostly centralized in nature, where all the processing is reliant on a single processor. This can lead to a loss in functionality in case of a crash of the central processor or monitor. Furthermore, with increases in the volume of sensor data as well as the complexity of algorithms, traditional centralized systems become for a number of reasons somewhat ungainly for successful deployment, and efficient distributed architectures can be more beneficial. The distributed health management architecture is comprised of a network of smart sensor devices. These devices monitor the health of various subsystems or modules. They perform diagnostics operations and trigger prognostics operations based on user-defined thresholds and rules. The sensor devices, called computing elements (CEs), consist of a sensor, or set of sensors, and a communication device (i.e., a wireless transceiver beside an embedded processing element). The CE runs in either a diagnostic or prognostic operating mode. The diagnostic mode is the default mode where a CE monitors a given subsystem or component through a low-weight diagnostic algorithm. If a CE detects a critical condition during monitoring, it raises a flag. Depending on availability of resources, a networked local cluster of CEs is formed that then carries out prognostics and fault mitigation by efficient distribution of the tasks. It should be noted that the CEs are expected not to suspend their previous tasks in the prognostic mode. When the prognostics task is over, and after appropriate actions have been taken, all CEs return to their original default configuration. Wireless technology-based implementation would ensure more flexibility in terms of sensor placement. It would also allow more sensors to be deployed because the overhead related to weights of wired systems is not present. Distributed architectures are furthermore generally robust with regard to recovery from node failures.

Goebel, Kai↗
NASA NTRS2014

Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

centrifugal pump↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development of an On-board Failure Diagnostics and Prognostics System for Solid Rocket Booster

We develop a case breach model for the on-board fault diagnostics and prognostics system for subscale solid-rocket boosters (SRBs). The model development was motivated by recent ground firing tests, in which a deviation of measured time-traces from the predicted time-series was observed. A modified model takes into account the nozzle ablation, including the effect of roughness of the nozzle surface, the geometry of the fault, and erosion and burning of the walls of the hole in the metal case. The derived low-dimensional performance model (LDPM) of the fault can reproduce the observed time-series data very well. To verify the performance of the LDPM we build a FLUENT model of the case breach fault and demonstrate a good agreement between theoretical predictions based on the analytical solution of the model equations and the results of the FLUENT simulations. We then incorporate the derived LDPM into an inferential Bayesian framework and verify performance of the Bayesian algorithm for the diagnostics and prognostics of the case breach fault. It is shown that the obtained LDPM allows one to track parameters of the SRB during the flight in real time, to diagnose case breach fault, and to predict its values in the future. The application of the method to fault diagnostics and prognostics (FD&P) of other SRB faults modes is discussed.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
NASA NTRS2013

Model-Based Diagnosis and Prognosis of a Water Recycling System

A water recycling system (WRS) deployed at NASA Ames Research Center s Sustainability Base (an energy efficient office building that integrates some novel technologies developed for space applications) will serve as a testbed for long duration testing of next generation spacecraft water recycling systems for future human spaceflight missions. This system cleans graywater (waste water collected from sinks and showers) and recycles it into clean water. Like all engineered systems, the WRS is prone to standard degradation due to regular use, as well as other faults. Diagnostic and prognostic applications will be deployed on the WRS to ensure its safe, efficient, and correct operation. The diagnostic and prognostic results can be used to enable condition-based maintenance to avoid unplanned outages, and perhaps extend the useful life of the WRS. Diagnosis involves detecting when a fault occurs, isolating the root cause of the fault, and identifying the extent of damage. Prognosis involves predicting when the system will reach its end of life irrespective of whether an abnormal condition is present or not. In this paper, first, we develop a physics model of both nominal and faulty system behavior of the WRS. Then, we apply an integrated model-based diagnosis and prognosis framework to the simulation model of the WRS for several different fault scenarios to detect, isolate, and identify faults, and predict the end of life in each fault scenario, and present the experimental results.

Roychoudhury, Indranil↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Testbed for Implementing Prognostic Methodologies on Cryogenic Propellant Loading Systems

Prognostics technologies determine the health state of a system and predict its remaining useful life. With this information, operators are able to make maintenance-related decisions, thus effectively streamlining operational and mission-level activities. Experimentation on testbeds representative of critical systems is very useful for the maturation of prognostics technology; precise emulation of actual fault conditions on such a testbed further validates these technologies. In this paper we present the development of a pneumatic valve testbed, initial experimental results and progress towards the maturation and validation of component-level prognostic methods in the context of cryogenic refueling operations. The pneumatic valve testbed allows for the injection of time-varying leaks with specified damage progression profiles in order to emulate common valve faults. The pneumatic valve testbed also contains a battery used to power some pneumatic components, enabling the study of the effects of battery degradation on the operation of the valves.

Prognositcs↗
NASA NTRS1992

Research and technology goals and objectives for Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM)

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) is defined herein as the capability to efficiently perform checkout, testing, and monitoring of space transportation vehicles, subsystems, and components before, during, and after operational This includes the ability to perform timely status determination, diagnostics, and prognostics. IVHM must support fault-tolerant response including system/subsystem reconfiguration to prevent catastrophic failures; and IVHM must support the planning and scheduling of post-operational maintenance. The purpose of this document is to establish the rationale for IVHM and IVHM research and technology planning, and to develop technical goals and objectives. This document is prepared to provide a broad overview of IVHM for technology and advanced development activities and, more specifically, to provide a planning reference from an avionics viewpoint under the OAST Transportation Technology Program Strategic Plan.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Aircraft Engine Run-to-Failure Dataset Under Real Flight Conditions for Prognostics and Diagnostics

A key enabler of intelligent maintenance systems is the ability to predict the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of its components, i.e., prognostics. The development of data-driven prognostics models requires datasets with run-to-failure trajectories. However, large representative run-to-failure datasets are often unavailable in real applications because failures are rare in many safety-critical systems. To foster the development of prognostics methods, we develop a new realistic dataset of run-to-failure trajectories for a fleet of aircraft engines under real flight conditions. The dataset was generated with the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (CMAPSS) model developed at NASA. The damage propagation modelling used in this dataset builds on the modelling strategy from previous work and incorporates two new levels of fidelity. First, it considers real flight conditions as recorded on board of a commercial jet. Second, it extends the degradation modelling by relating the degradation process to its operation history. This dataset also provides the health respectively fault class. Therefore, besides its applicability to prognostics problems, the dataset can be used for fault diagnostics.

CMAPPS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Autonomous Propulsion System Technology Being Developed to Optimize Engine Performance Throughout the Lifecycle

The goal of the Autonomous Propulsion System Technology (APST) project is to reduce pilot workload under both normal and anomalous conditions. Ongoing work under APST develops and leverages technologies that provide autonomous engine monitoring, diagnosing, and controller adaptation functions, resulting in an integrated suite of algorithms that maintain the propulsion system's performance and safety throughout its life. Engine-to-engine performance variation occurs among new engines because of manufacturing tolerances and assembly practices. As an engine wears, the performance changes as operability limits are reached. In addition to these normal phenomena, other unanticipated events such as sensor failures, bird ingestion, or component faults may occur, affecting pilot workload as well as compromising safety. APST will adapt the controller as necessary to achieve optimal performance for a normal aging engine, and the safety net of APST algorithms will examine and interpret data from a variety of onboard sources to detect, isolate, and if possible, accommodate faults. Situations that cannot be accommodated within the faulted engine itself will be referred to a higher level vehicle management system. This system will have the authority to redistribute the faulted engine's functionality among other engines, or to replan the mission based on this new engine health information. Work is currently underway in the areas of adaptive control to compensate for engine degradation due to aging, data fusion for diagnostics and prognostics of specific sensor and component faults, and foreign object ingestion detection. In addition, a framework is being defined for integrating all the components of APST into a unified system. A multivariable, adaptive, multimode control algorithm has been developed that accommodates degradation-induced thrust disturbances during throttle transients. The baseline controller of the engine model currently being investigated has multiple control modes that are selected according to some performance or operational criteria. As the engine degrades, parameters shift from their nominal values. Thus, when a new control mode is swapped in, a variable that is being brought under control might have an excessive initial error. The new adaptive algorithm adjusts the controller gains on the basis of the level of degradation to minimize the disruptive influence of the large error on other variables and to recover the desired thrust response.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗