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Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY

Enhancing Drinking Water Quality Modeling: Leveraging Physics Informed Neural Networks for Learning with Imperfect Reaction Models and Partial Data

Chemical kinetics models, typically formulated as systems of ordinary or partial differential equations, are valuable tools for simulating drinking water quality. However, these models often face inaccuracies due to discrepancies between the laboratory and the real-world conditions, as well as limitations in experimental analytical methods, hindering the accurate representation of the true underlying chemical mechanisms. In this study, we propose a Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN), using the eXtreme Theory of Functional Connections, to improve the prediction of chemical concentrations over time. The PINN method accounts for imperfect chemical models and incorporates partial data to improve predictions. Focusing on reactions describing water disinfection residual and disinfectant byproduct formation, which are crucial for public health and regulatory compliance, we demonstrate that the PINN model is able to accurately predict the concentrations of chemical species across various pH values. Notably, the model extends its accuracy to predict concentrations of chemical species not originally included in its training data. The developed method can be extended to a variety of chemical systems, offering a wide array of potential applications.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Frontiers in Magnetic Materials

Magnetism is crucial to many modern technologies, a driver for condensed matter physics research and one of the most remarkable and diverse properties of matter. We propose to develop understanding of novel magnetism and magnetic related behavior in materials and use this to accelerate the discovery of forefront magnetic materials. The approach is via the connection of magnetic properties to specific structures and materials. Topics that will be addressed are (1) Metallic magnetic materials with unusually low carrier concentrations and/or moments (2) Magnetism arising from unusual chemistry including 4d and 5d magnetism and (3) Materials with strong spin-fluctuations, which can lead to quantum criticality, spin-fluctuation induced superconductivity and other novel quantum behavior. These topics overlap, for example, the 4d ruthenates include ferromagnets (perovskite SrRuO 3 ), extremely high ordering temperature antiferromagnets (honeycomb lattice SrRu 2 O 6 ) and well as quantum materials with strong spin fluctuations (layered perovskite Sr 2 RuO 4 and Sr 3 Ru 2 O 7 ). We will use of density calculations to connect magnetic properties with chemistry and structure and employ phenomenological theories to extend these results to properties that are not directly given by direct first principles methods and we will conduct tests to explore the limitations of density functional approximations and new functionals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Universal scaling of electron transmission for nearly ballistic and quantum dragon nanodevices

Here, we predict two different universal scaling regimes for the quantum transmission of metallic nanodevices following the addition of a small amount of uncorrelated disorder. A nanodevice is connected to two thin semi-infinite uniform leads, and the Non-Equilibrium Green’s Function (NEGF) methodology yields the electron transmission $\mathscr{T}(E)$ as a function of the injected electron energy $E$. Ballistic nanodevices have no disorder and have $\mathscr{T}(E)=1$for all $E$ that allow electron propagation in the leads. Quantum dragon nanodevices can have extremely strong properly correlated disorder, and still have $\mathscr{T}(E)=1$for all $E$. Additional uncorrelated site disorder leads to Fano resonances in $\mathscr{T}(E)$. Averaging over the uncorrelated disorder we predict using perturbation theory two universal scaling regimes for $\mathscr{T}_{ave}(E)$. The functional form of both universal scaling regimes depend on the device length and width, energy, and variance of the uncorrelated disorder. The second scaling regime, valid for small but somewhat larger uncorrelated disorder than the first scaling regime, also has the form dependent on the density of states of the system. These two scaling regimes are demonstrated to be valid via large scale computer calculations.

Ballistic transport

Bridging nuclear physics across energy scales: from neutrinoless double-beta decay to high-energy heavy-ion collisions

This paper exemplifies how connecting methods at disparate energy scales can illuminate fundamental questions. By demonstrating that nuclear wave function properties governing rare decay processes also influence collective behavior at extreme temperatures and densities, the authors have opened a new pathway for constraining physics beyond the Standard Model. With multiple ton-scale 0νββ experiments under construction, any method reducing NME uncertainties will directly impact our ability to interpret discoveries or constrain neutrino properties. The general principle—that collective phenomena in high-energy collisions can illuminate subtle features of many-body correlations in the colliding nuclei—may find applications across nuclear and particle physics. Furthermore, this intersection of nuclear structure theory, heavy-ion physics, and fundamental symmetry tests represents fertile ground for future discoveries in modern physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

CANA v1.0.0: efficient quantification of canalization in automata networks

The biomolecular networks underpinning cell function exhibit canalization, or the buffering of fluctuations required to function in a noisy environment. We present a new major release of $\tt{CANA}$, v1.0.0, an open-source Python package for understanding canalization in automata network models, discrete dynamical systems in which activation of biomolecular entities (e.g. transcription of genes) is modeled as the activity of coupled automata. One understudied putative mechanism for canalization is the functional equivalence of biomolecular regulators (e.g. among the transcription factors for a gene). We study this mechanism using the theory of symmetry in discrete functions. We present a new exact method, $\tt{schematodes}$, for finding maximal symmetry groups among the inputs to discrete functions, and integrate it into $\tt{CANA}$. The $\tt{schematodes}$ method substantially outperforms the inexact method of previous $\tt{CANA}$ versions both in speed and accuracy. We apply $\tt{CANA}$ v1.0.0 to study symmetry in 74 experimentally supported automata network models from the Cell Collective (CC) repository. The symmetry distribution is significantly different in the CC than in random automata with the same in-degree (connectivity) and bias (average output) (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, P ≪ .001). Its spread is much wider than in a null model (IQR 0.31 versus IQR 0.20 with equal medians), demonstrating that the CC is enriched in functions with extreme symmetry or asymmetry.

Boolean networks

Time-domain theory of transient heat conduction in the local limit

Ultrafast and nanoscale heat conduction demands a unified theoretical framework that rigorously bridges macroscopic transport equations with microscopic material properties derived from statistical physics. Existing empirical generalizations of Fourier's law often lack a solid microscopic foundation, failing to connect observed non-Fourier behavior with underlying atomic-scale mechanisms. In this work, we present a time-domain theory of transient heat conduction rooted in Zwanzig's statistical theory of irreversible processes. Central to this framework is the time-domain transport function $\overleftrightarrow{𝑍}$⁡(𝑡) defined through equilibrium time-correlation functions of heat fluxes. This function generalizes the conventional concept of steady-state thermal conductivity, governing the transition of conduction dynamics from onset second sound type wave propagation at finite speeds to diffusion-dominated behavior across broad temporal and spatial scales. Unlike phonon hydrodynamic models that rely on mesoscopic constructs such as phonon drift velocity, our approach provides a quantitative and microscopic description of intrinsic memory effects in transient heat fluxes and applies universally to bulk materials at any temperature or length scale. By integrating atomistic-scale first-principles calculations with continuum-level macroscopic equations, this framework offers a robust foundation for numerical simulations of transient temperature fields. Furthermore, it facilitates the interpretation and design of transient thermal grating experiments using nanometer-scale heat sources and ultrafast laser systems in the extreme ultraviolet and x-ray wavelength ranges, advancing our understanding of heat dissipation dynamics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI