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At least 19 records

Chapter 13: Errors and Uncertainties Associated with Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Products

Measuring precipitation on a global scale is only possible from satellite platforms. Satellite precipitation estimates are based on geosynchronous infrared sensors on geostationary satellites, characterized by high sampling frequency, and polar-orbiting microwave sensors on low-Earth-orbiting satellites with less-frequent sampling. Assessing satellite product performance is fundamental to infer the reliability of such estimates and effectively use them in water resources management, extreme event characterization, disease control, or weather forecasting. Nevertheless, errors and uncertainties associated with satellite precipitation products are often masked due to temporal and spatial sampling, as well as bias-corrections against a reference dataset. Moreover, the verification of satellite precipitation products is easier over land areas, where rain gauges and ground radars are available as benchmark, but extremely limited over the oceans. Substantial work still remains to better quantify relative and absolute errors and uncertainties within satellite-based precipitation products over land and oceans.

Viviana Maggioni↗

Space Borne Event Timer

The Space Borne Event Timer is a part of the NASA laser ranging system that is intended to operate aboard the Space Shuttle orbiting over California. The object is to measure, by laser ranging, the earth movement along the San Andreas fault and possibly forecast future earthquakes. A number of cube reflector targets will be placed along both sides of the fault. The ranging system aboard the Space Shuttle will fire a burst of laser pulses at each target and detect the reflected light. Time differences between pulses from the two sides of the fault will indicate earth displacements. The Space Borne Event Timer is a CAMAC compatible system that provides extremely accurate timing data and controls the operation of the ranging system. For each event the time is given in 19.53 increments from the instant of firing the laser to the instant the reflected light is received back, within a range of 130 days.

Turko, B.↗

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Meteorological Controls on Biomass Burning During Santa Ana Events in Southern California

Fires occurring during Santa Ana (SA) events in southern California are driven by extreme fire weather characterized by high temperatures, low humidities, and high wind speeds. We studied the controls on burned area and carbon emissions during two intensive SA burning periods in 2003 and 2007. We therefore used remote sensing data in parallel with fire weather simulations of the Weather and Regional Forecast model. Total carbon emissions were approximately 1800 gigagrams in 2003 and 900 gigagrams in 2007, based on a daily burned area and a fire emission model that accounted for spatial variability in fuel loads and combustion completeness. On a regional scale, relatively strong positive correlations were found between the daily Fosberg fire weather index and burned area/emissions (probability is less than 0.01). Our analysis provides a quantitative assessment of relationships between fire activity and weather during severe SA fires in southern California.

Santa Ana (SA)↗

Flight Results of the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Aircraft with Adaptation to a Longitudinally Destabilized Plant

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. The goal for the adaptive system is to provide an increase in survivability in the event that these extreme changes occur. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane. The adaptive element was incorporated into a dynamic inversion controller with explicit reference model-following. As a test the system was subjected to an abrupt change in plant stability simulating a destabilizing failure. Flight evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to stabilize the vehicle and reestablish good onboard reference model-following. Flight evaluation with the simulated destabilizing failure and adaptation engaged showed improvement in the vehicle stability margins. The convergent properties of this initial system warrant additional improvement since continued maneuvering caused continued adaptation change. Compared to the non-adaptive system the adaptive system provided better closed-loop behavior with improved matching of the onboard reference model. A detailed discussion of the flight results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

Snowfall in the Northern Great Lakes: Lessons Learned from a Multisensor Observatory

A multisensor snowfall observational suite has been deployed at the Marquette, Michigan, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (KMQT) since 2014. Micro Rain Radar (MRR; profiling radar), Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP; snow particle imager), and ancillary ground-based meteorological observations illustrate the unique capabilities of these combined instruments to document radar and concomitant microphysical properties associated with northern Great Lakes snowfall regimes. Lake-effect, lake-orographic, and transition event case studies are presented that illustrate the variety of snowfall events that occur at KMQT. Case studies and multiyear analyses reveal the ubiquity of snowfall produced by shallow events. These shallow snowfall features and their distinctive microphysical fingerprints are often difficult to discern with conventional remote sensing instruments, thus highlighting the scientific and potential operational value of MRR and PIP observations. The importance of near-surface lake-orographic snowfall enhancement processes in extreme snowfall events and regime-dependent snow particle microphysical variability controlled by regime and environmental factors are also highlighted.

Lake effects↗

Assimilated Hydrological Data at NASA GES DISC with Examples of Extreme Events

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy rainfall, heatwave, floods and droughts, and strong wind, can have devastating impacts on society. NASA and NOAA, based on independent analyses, recently announced that global surface temperatures in 2018 are the fourth warmest since 1880, behind only those of 2016, 2017, and 2015 (nasa.gov). Also in 2018, the United States experienced 14 billion-dollar disasters, ranking as the fourth highest total number of such events, behind only the years 2017, 2011, and 2016 (climate.gov). Many research studies have focused on acquiring observational and modeling data, to reveal linkages between increasing extreme events, global water and energy cycle, and global climate change. However, draw conclusions is still a challenge. NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center is one of twelve NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) data centers that process, archive, document, and distribute data from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts a wide range of remotely-sensed and model data and provides reliable and robust data access and services to users worldwide. This presentation provides a few examples of extreme event study that use Land Surface Model (LSM) assimilated, quality-controlled, and spatially and temporally consistent, hydrological data from the GES DISC. Also provided is a summary table for the hydrological data holdings, along with discussions of recent updates to data and data services.

Rui, Hualan↗

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2014

Topics include: JWST Integrated Simulation and Test (JIST) Core; Software for Non-Contact Measurement of an Individual's Heart Rate Using a Common Camera; Rapid Infrared Pixel Grating Response Testbed; Temperature Measurement and Stabilization in a Birefringent Whispering Gallery Resonator; JWST IV and V Simulation and Test (JIST) Solid State Recorder (SSR) Simulator; Development of a Precision Thermal Doubler for Deep Space; Improving Friction Stir Welds Using Laser Peening; Methodology of Evaluating Margins of Safety in Critical Brazed Joints; Interactive Inventory Monitoring; Sensor for Spatial Detection of Single-Event Effects in Semiconductor-Based Electronics; Reworked CCGA-624 Interconnect Package Reliability for Extreme Thermal Environments; Current-Controlled Output Driver for Directly Coupled Loads; Bulk Metallic Glasses and Matrix Composites as Spacecraft Shielding; Touch Temperature Coating for Electrical Equipment on Spacecraft; Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Flame-Retardant Additives; Autonomous Robotic Manipulation (ARM); CARVE Log; Platform Perspective Toolkit; Convex Hull-Based Plume and Anomaly Detection; Pre-Filtration of GOSAT Data Using Only Level 1 Data and an Intelligent Filter to Remove Low Clouds; Affordability Comparison Tool - ACT; "Ascent - Commemorating Shuttle" for iPad; Cassini Mission App; Light-Weight Workflow Engine: A Server for Executing Generic Workflows; Model for System Engineering of the CheMin Instrument; Timeline Central Concepts; Parallel Particle Filter Toolkit; Particle Filter Simulation and Analysis Enabling Non-Traditional Navigation; Quasi-Terminator Orbits for Mapping Small Primitive Bodies; The Subgrid-Scale Scalar Variance Under Supercritical Pressure Conditions; Sliding Gait for ATHLETE Mobility; and Automated Generation of Adaptive Filter Using a Genetic Algorithm and Cyclic Rule Reduction.

Source record↗

Satellite-Based Tracking of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management During the 2018 Extreme Weather Event in Kerala, India

Uncoordinated management of hydropower dams during extreme and unexpected precipitation events in mountainous terrain can have disastrous consequences due to the competing nature of flood control and hydropower generation. Numerous cases of flooding events that have been exacerbated due to insufficient storage conditions in hydropower dams have been reported worldwide. There is a need for a scalable and publicly accessible monitoring framework that is capable of providing reliable, near-real time, and transparent reservoir operations data. A fully satellite-based framework is the most viable solution to build such capability. The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT 3.0), which utilizes high frequency remote sensing-based surface area and reservoir storage estimation alongside hydrological modelled inflow was applied here for the 2018 Kerala floods in India as a globally representative case for a mountainous river basin with high precipitation and hydropower dams. Application of satellite-based RAT 3.0 in monitoring the state of 19 reservoirs in Kerala during the flood event showed very promising results. In general, RAT 3.0, using satellite remote sensing, was found to be able to capture the temporal trend of the reservoir storage and pinpoint the sudden shift in filling or release decisions made by the dam operator. Inflow modelling in such regions was found to require careful calibration with identification of reservoirs that are heavily regulated being a critical aspect. The perennial high cloud cover in such regions necessitate and highlights the central role played by microwave and radar-based satellite sensors, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, in tracking reservoir state. An operational version of RAT 3.0 for stakeholder agencies tailored for hydropower dams operating in high precipitation and mountainous environments is a real-world outcome of this study.

Sarath Suresh↗

High-Fidelity Multi-Rotor Unmanned Aircraft System Simulation Development for Trajectory Prediction Under Off-Nominal Flight Dynamics

The NASA Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project is conducting research to enable civilian low-altitude airspace and UAS operations. A goal of this project is to develop probabilistic methods to quantify risk during failures and off nominal flight conditions. An important part of this effort is the reliable prediction of feasible trajectories during off-nominal events such as control failure, atmospheric upsets, or navigation anomalies that can cause large deviations from the intended flight path or extreme vehicle upsets beyond the normal flight envelope. Few examples of high-fidelity modeling and prediction of off-nominal behavior for small UAS (sUAS) vehicles exist, and modeling requirements for accurately predicting flight dynamics for out-of-envelope or failure conditions are essentially undefined. In addition, the broad range of sUAS aircraft configurations already being fielded presents a significant modeling challenge, as these vehicles are often very different from one another and are likely to possess dramatically different flight dynamics and resultant trajectories and may require different modeling approaches to capture off-nominal behavior. NASA has undertaken an extensive research effort to define sUAS flight dynamics modeling requirements and develop preliminary high fidelity six degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) simulations capable of more closely predicting off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories. This research has included a literature review of existing sUAS modeling and simulation work as well as development of experimental testing methods to measure and model key components of propulsion, airframe and control characteristics. The ultimate objective of these efforts is to develop tools to support UTM risk analyses and for the real-time prediction of off-nominal trajectories for use in the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF). This paper focuses on modeling and simulation efforts for a generic quad-rotor configuration typical of many commercial vehicles in use today. An overview of relevant off-nominal multi-rotor behaviors will be presented to define modeling goals and to identify the prediction capability lacking in simplified models of multi-rotor performance. A description of recent NASA wind tunnel testing of multi-rotor propulsion and airframe components will be presented illustrating important experimental and data acquisition methods, and a description of preliminary propulsion and airframe models will be presented. Lastly, examples of predicted off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories from the simulation will be presented.

Foster, John V.↗

Project Ares 3

The mission of Project Ares is to design and fabricate an Earth prototype, autonomous flying rover capable of flying on the Martian surface. The project was awarded to California State University, Northridge (CSUN) in 1989 where an in-depth paper study was completed. The second year's group, Project Ares 2, designed and fabricated a full-scale flight demonstration aircraft. Project Ares 3, the third and final group, is responsible for propulsion system design and installation, controls and instrumentation, and high altitude testing. The propulsion system consists of a motor and its power supply, geartrain, and propeller. The motor is a four-brush DC motor powered by a 50-V NiCd battery supply. A pulley and belt arrangement is used for the geartrain and includes light weight, low temperature materials. The propeller is constructed from composite materials which ensures high strength and light weight, and is specifically developed to provide thrust at extremely high altitudes. The aircraft is controlled with a ground-based radio control system and an autopilot which will activate in the event that the control signal is lost. A transponder is used to maintain radar contact for ground tracking purposes. The aircraft possesses a small, onboard computer for collecting and storing flight data. To safeguard the possibility of computer failure, all flight data is transmitted to a ground station via a telemetry system. An initial, unpowered, low-level test flight was completed in August of 1991. Testing of systems integration in the second low-level test flight resulted in loss of elevator control which caused considerable damage on landing. Complete failure analysis and repairs are scheduled for September of 1992.

Raymer, Dan↗

Extreme Problem Solving II: How Can 4 Astronauts do the Jobs of 80 Experts?

On past and present space missions, resilience is largely dependent on the problem-solving expertise of flight controllers at Mission Control on the ground. Missions to Mars will instead experience long communication delays and blackouts that require a small crew to detect, diagnose, and respond to critical events with only intermittent and limited real-time ground support. Our 2021 SpaceCHI paper “Extreme Problem Solving: The New Challenges of Deep Space Exploration” introduced the paradigm shift of increasingly Earth-independent mission operations and identified the capabilities that are not currently available on-board but will be needed to enable safe exploration beyond low-Earth orbit [1]. This paper investigates how the ground team achieves resilience today to inform what will be needed to achieve human-systems resilience on future long duration exploration missions – how can a crew of four generalists achieve the same outcomes as a team of 80+ experts? An actual ISS anomaly is analyzed and then reimagined under Mars transit conditions, to reveal critical decision-points and the onboard capabilities that will be needed for successful resolution. This paper also presents criteria for what makes urgent, unanticipated events so challenging to resolve.

human-systems integration architecture↗

Verification and Implementation of Operations Safety Controls for Flight Missions

There are several engineering disciplines, such as reliability, supportability, quality assurance, human factors, risk management, safety, etc. Safety is an extremely important engineering specialty within NASA, and the consequence involving a loss of crew is considered a catastrophic event. Safety is not difficult to achieve when properly integrated at the beginning of each space systems project/start of mission planning. The key is to ensure proper handling of safety verification throughout each flight/mission phase. Today, Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) operations engineers continue to conduct these flight product reviews across all open flight products. As such, these reviews help ensure that each mission is accomplished with safety requirements along with controls heavily embedded in applicable flight products. Most importantly, the S&MA operations engineers are required to look for important design and operations controls so that safety is strictly adhered to as well as reflected in the final flight product.

Smalls, James R.↗

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events (EPE) in the Tropics and Association with Convective Aggregation

Extreme precipitation (EP) has become increasingly frequent and is causing more devastating impacts on society in recent years. EP is traditionally measured by the maximum or threshold-exceeding gridded precipitation of a given duration. We have developed an extreme precipitation event (EPE) algorithm that tracks entire precipitation life cycle across space and time, which enables us to characterize properties of the entire EPE, such as duration (from sub-daily to multi-day), areal coverage, and total rain volume of the event. These EPE characteristics are critical in understanding precipitation development and their interaction with large-scale meteorology, in addition, providing more comprehensive matrix for disaster management. This study examines the EPE characteristics from the tropics derived from high-resolution Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals fro GPM (IMERG) product. The difference between EPE characteristics between tropical land and ocean will be discussed. Large-scale meteorological control as well as convective aggregation will be studied on the impact of EPE characteristics in tropics.

Convective aggregation↗

Science Benefits of Onboard Spacecraft Navigation

Primitive bodies (asteroids and comets), which have remained relatively unaltered since their formation, are important targets for scientific missions that seek to understand the evolution of the solar system. Often the first step is to fly by these bodies with robotic spacecraft. The key to maximizing data returns from these flybys is to determine the spacecraft trajectory relative to the target body-in short, navigate the spacecraft- with sufficient accuracy so that the target is guaranteed to be in the instruments' field of view. The most powerful navigation data in these scenarios are images taken by the spacecraft of the target against a known star field (onboard astrometry). Traditionally, the relative trajectory of the spacecraft must be estimated hours to days in advance using images collected by the spacecraft. This is because of (1)!the long round-trip light times between the spacecraft and the Earth and (2)!the time needed to downlink and process navigation data on the ground, make decisions based on the result, and build and uplink instrument pointing sequences from the results. The light time and processing time compromise navigation accuracy considerably, because there is not enough time to use more accurate data collected closer to the target-such data are more accurate because the angular capability of the onboard astrometry is essentially constant as the distance to the target decreases, resulting in better "plane-of- sky" knowledge of the target. Excellent examples of these timing limitations are high-speed comet encounters. Comets are difficult to observe up close; their orbits often limit scientists to brief, rapid flybys, and their coma further restricts viewers from seeing the nucleus in any detail, unless they can view the nucleus at close range. Comet nuclei details are typically discernable for much shorter durations than the roundtrip light time to Earth, so robotic spacecraft must be able to perform onboard navigation. This onboard navigation can be accomplished through a self- contained system that by eliminating light time restrictions dramatically improves the relative trajectory knowledge and control and subsequently increases the amount of quality data collected. Flybys are one-time events, so the system's underlying algorithms and software must be extremely robust. The autonomous software must also be able to cope with the unknown size, shape, and orientation of the previously unseen comet nucleus. Furthermore, algorithms must be reliable in the presence of imperfections and/or damage to onboard cameras accrued after many years of deep-space operations. The AutoNav operational flight software packages, developed by scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under contract with NASA, meet all these requirements. They have been directly responsible for the successful encounters on all of NASA's close-up comet-imaging missions (see Figure !1). AutoNav is the only system to date that has autonomously tracked comet nuclei during encounters and performed autonomous interplanetary navigation. AutoNav has enabled five cometary flyby missions (Table!1) residing on four NASA spacecraft provided by three different spacecraft builders. Using this software, missions were able to process a combined total of nearly 1000 images previously unseen by humans. By eliminating the need to navigate spacecraft from Earth, the accuracy gained by AutoNav during flybys compared to ground-based navigation is about 1!order of magnitude in targeting and 2!orders of magnitude in time of flight. These benefits ensure that pointing errors do not compromise data gathered during flybys. In addition, these benefits can be applied to flybys of other solar system objects, flybys at much slower relative velocities, mosaic imaging campaigns, and other proximity activities (e.g., orbiting, hovering, and descent/ascent).

Autonomy↗

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗

AIRS Impact on Analysis and Forecast of an Extreme Rainfall Event (Indus River Valley 2010) with a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

A set of data assimilation and forecast experiments are performed with the NASA Global data assimilation and forecast system GEOS-5, to compare the impact of different approaches towards assimilation of Advanced Infrared Spectrometer (AIRS) data on the precipitation analysis and forecast skill. The event chosen is an extreme rainfall episode which occurred in late July 11 2010 in Pakistan, causing massive floods along the Indus River Valley. Results show that the assimilation of quality-controlled AIRS temperature retrievals obtained under partly cloudy conditions produce better precipitation analyses, and substantially better 7-day forecasts, than assimilation of clear-sky radiances. The improvement of precipitation forecast skill up to 7 day is very significant in the tropics, and is caused by an improved representation, attributed to cloudy retrieval assimilation, of two contributing mechanisms: the low-level moisture advection, and the concentration of moisture over the area in the days preceding the precipitation peak.

Reale, O.↗

Climate and Human Impacts on Hydrological Processes and Flood Risk in Southern Louisiana

Satellite observations of coastal Louisiana indicate an overall land loss over recent decades, which could be attributed to climate and human-induced factors, including sea level rise (SLR). Climate induced hydrological change (CHC) has impacted the way flood control structures are used, altering the spatiotemporal water distribution. Based on “what-if” scenarios, we determine relative impacts of SLR and CHC on increased flood risk over southern Louisiana and examine the role of water management, via flood control structures, in mitigating flood risk over the region. Our findings show that CHC has increased flood risk over the past 28 years. The number of affected people increases as extreme hydrological events become more exceptional. Water management reduces flood risk to urban areas and croplands, especially during exceptional hydrological events. For example, currently (i.e., 2016-2020 period), CHC-induced flooding puts an additional 73km2 of cropland under flood risk at least half of the time (median flood event) and 65km2 once a year (annual flood event), when compared to a past period (1993-1997). A ten- to twenty-fold increase relative to SLR-induced flooding. CHC also increases population vulnerability in southern Louisiana to flooding; additional 9900 residents currently live under flood risk at least half of the time, and that number increases to 27,400 for annual flood events. Residents vulnerable to SLR induced flooding is lower (6000 and 3300 residents, respectively). Conclusions are that CHC is a major factor that should be accounted for flood resilience and that water management interventions can mitigate risks to human life and activities.

Augusto Getirana↗