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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Better Constraining Supercooled Clouds Could Reduce Projected Warming Spread

The increase of climate sensitivity to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models (ESMs) compared to CMIP5 ESMs is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud response to climate change, referred to as cloud feedback. The ratio of supercooled liquid cloud water relative to all cloud water, termed liquid phase ratio (LPR), which has also notably increased in many recent ESMs, is thought to be a primary driver of the extratropical cloud feedback increase. Unlike the preponderance of previous studies that compare native model LPR directly with observations, here we evaluate LPR over three ESM generations against Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) using an instrument simulator approach, which mimics instrument limitations and uses consistent cloud definitions and resolutions. We find that current coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) ESMs collectively simulate greater LPR than previous CMIP generations and overestimate LPR compared to observations, contrary to previous findings, likely driven by past inconsistent comparisons of ESM outputs with CALIPSO observations. We further show that greater LPR in ESM present-day climate is unexpectedly correlated with a smaller extratropical cloud feedback, attributable to a decrease of cloud amount exceeding the increase of cloud optical depth. Finally, our results suggest that improving constraints on model LPR using our evaluation framework would likely reduce the spread in CMIP6 climate sensitivities, owing to its effect on extratropical cloud feedback from supercooled clouds.

greenhouse gas concentrations↗
NASA NTRS2022

Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SW FB ) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report (AR5) ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical SW FB ’s that are more positive than those simulated in previous generation CMIP5 GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean SW FB can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. The response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean SW FB — inconsistent with extreme ECS.

extratropical cloud response↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Regime-Oriented Approach to Observationally Constraining Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks

The extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback is primarily due to increases in extratropical liquid cloud extent and optical depth. Here, we examine the response of extratropical (35°-75°) marine cloud liquid water path (LWP) to a uniform 4 K increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and variants of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 GCM. Compositing is used to partition data into periods inside and out of cyclones. The response of extratropical LWP to a uniform SST increase and associated atmospheric response varies substantially among GCMs, but the sensitivity of LWP to cloud controlling factors (CCFs) is qualitatively similar. When all other predictors are held constant, increasing moisture flux drives an increase in LWP. Increasing SST, holding all other predictors fixed, leads to a decrease in LWP. The combinations of these changes lead to LWP, and by extension reflected SW, increasing with warming in both hemispheres. Observations predict an increase in reflected SW over oceans of 0.8 W/sq.m to 1.6 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°N-75°N) and 1.2 W/sq.m to 1.9 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°S- 75°S). This increase in reflected SW is mainly due to increased moisture convergence into cyclones because of increasing available moisture. The efficiency at which converging moisture is converted into precipitation determines the amount of liquid cloud. Thus, cyclone precipitation processes are critical to constraining extratropical cloud feedbacks.

extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean

The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the wide spread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored in Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from interensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include increased precipitation in the northern branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve the simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2. Significance Statement Biomass burning emissions from both wildfires and agricultural fires during ENSO act as a climate feedback, as they are both driven by fire weather anomalies tied to ENSO and influence clouds, radiation, and precipitation on a global scale. While the largest biomass burning (BB) emissions emanate mainly from Indonesia, other regions also exhibit systematic responses. When simulated in CESM2, the emissions collectively impact the flows of energy across the tropical Pacific Ocean in a spatially and temporally complex fashion, with the net effect of improving CESM2’s simulation of ENSO events.

Fasullo, John T. [National Center for Atmospheric ↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observational Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones: Northern Versus Southern Hemisphere Warm Fronts

Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.

Naud, Catherine M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS1990

The relationship of extratropical outgoing longwave radiation to monthly geopotential teleconnection patterns

The relationship between low frequency variations in extratropical fields of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and geopotential teleconnection patterns as determined by rotated principal components analysis of the NMC 500-mb heights is investigated in the Northern Hemisphere. The monthly broadband OLR is obtained from the Nimbus-6 and Nimbus-7 Wide-Field-Of-View radiometer record. Each of the main 500-mb teleconnection patterns has a characteristic signal in the OLR field for the month in which the 500-mb pattern occurs. The OLR signals mark cloud and diabatic heating events that are associated with the teleconnection patterns. A demonstration is given of correlation between extratropical monthly OLR and geopotential height. Coupled with the expected tropospheric response to radiation on monthly time scale. This demonstration stresses the importance of the radiation simulation in model studies of the low frequency variability of atmospheric circulation. The extratropical OLR does not appear to be a useful predictor for the 500-mb teleconnection patterns on a monthly time scale.

Charlock, Thomas P.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dynamical and Chemical Behavior of the Lower Stratosphere and Interactions with the Troposphere

Equivalent-barotropic calculations, in tandem with Lagrangian analyses, reveal how changes of total ozone follow from vertical and horizontal transport by planetary waves. Those calculations also throw light on how diabatic motions comprising the Brewer-Dobson circulation develop from quasi-horizontal advection by planetary waves. Potential temperature along a material surface indicates organized subsidence inside the polar-night vortex, resembling tracer observations from UARS. Lagrangian histories illustrate that this sinking motion follows in large part from parcels being driven out of thermodynamic equilibrium by planetary waves, especially at high latitudes. Irreversible heat transfer then produces a net drift of air across isentropic surfaces as parcels orbit about the displaced vortex. By driving mean-meridional overturning in the stratosphere, this downward drift is ultimately responsible for transferring ozone from the tropics to the extratropical lower stratosphere. It also introduces horizontal structure into the distribution of total ozone, which surfaces clearly in ozone trends. High-resolution global cloud imagery constructed from 6 satellites simultaneously observing the Earth was used to investigate the spectrum of equatorial waves generated by tropical convection and propagating vertically into the stratosphere. The results indicate that temperature variability is dominated by planetary-scale equatorial waves like the Kelvin mode, which agrees with satellite observations of the tropical stratosphere. However, the Kelvin mode accounts for only about 30 - 50% of the eastward momentum flux radiating into the stratosphere, the remainder coming from gravity waves. An algorithm was developed to determine 3-dimensional atmospheric motion from satellite tracer measurements. Based on Lagrangian constraints, the algorithm circumvents limitations of the traditional scheme for inferring motion from temperature measurements and determines the circulation in the tropics as reliably as elsewhere. A study of deep convection revealed that the highest towers (those penetrating into stratospheric air and controlling tropopause height and composition through convective mixing) occur in close association with the diurnal cycle of convection. Clouds colder than 220 K develop almost entirely in association with the diurnal cycle of convection over tropical landmasses and substantially in association with it even over maritime regions.

Salby, Murry L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Midlatitude cyclone processes as a key to understanding climate sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) differ greatly in their shortwave cloud feedback. One feature that is consistent across GCMs is a positive shortwave cloud feedback in the subtropics, and a negative shortwave cloud feedback across the midlatitudes. Confidence has grown in the mechanisms that lead to, and the strength of, the subtropical shortwave cloud feedback, but the midlatitude negative shortwave cloud feedback is not well-constrained or well-understood. It is critical to reduce uncertainty in midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback. A more positive midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback in the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) has been found to be one of the primary causes of the increased climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5. We show that changes in midlatitude cyclones in future climates are the primary cause of the negative shortwave cloud feedback and are thus key to understanding the high climate sensitivity in the most recent GCMs. Warming-induced changes in cloud liquid water path in midlatitude cyclones can almost entirely be explained by Clausius-Clapeyron increasing moisture convergence into cyclones. One concern with simulating midlatitude cyclones is the lack of predictive skill at low resolution. A more realistic relationship between moisture flux and cyclone liquid content is found at high horizontal resolution (∆x<25km), but the cloud feedback within cyclones can be explained by increased moisture convergence across low- and high-resolution models. Observations and models agree that the extratropical shortwave cloud feedback is moderated by precipitation processes in cyclones. This rules out a large contribution from ice-to-liquid transitions, as has been hypothesized in previous studies. Understanding and constraining these precipitation processes is crucial to constraining the response of midlatitude cyclones to warming and by extension climate sensitivity.

Cyclones↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final report: Insights from ARM observations into aerosol processing and transport by extratropical cyclones and aerosol effects on cyclone clouds

This project advanced understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions in extratropical cyclones using observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory and ACE-ENA field campaigns, along with satellite datasets and numerical modeling. We have quantified the susceptibility of frontal clouds to aerosols, showing that this susceptibility is similar to that in non-frontal clouds despite substantial (factor 2) differences in droplet concentrations between these cloud types, and also significant differences in cloud albedo. A key finding was that Aitken-mode (here, 60-100nm diameter) aerosols play a disproportionately important role in droplet activation in frontal clouds, and concentrations of these particles are frequently strongly biased in climate models. Activation of aerosols depends strongly on updraft speeds, and via collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory we contributed to quantifying these better with the ARM radar wind profiler at the ENA site. Our studies in the North Atlantic have analogs in the Southern Ocean, and to draw these out we examined data from the MARCUS and SOCRATES field campaigns. We identified new particle formation within extratropical cyclones as a potentially important source of cloud condensation nuclei in these pristine marine environments. By combining ARM observations with perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, we demonstrated that surface observations can effectively constrain aerosol–cloud adjustments and reduce uncertainty in simulated cloud liquid water path responses by approximately 15%, yielding stronger constraints on historical aerosol cooling effects. The work further established precipitation processes as a dominant control on aerosol–cloud interactions and Earth system predictability.

Gordon, Hamish [Department of Chemical Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of Surface Flux Feedbacks for Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Anomalies

The use of "dynamical coupling" rules allows for identifying coupled vs. uncoupled anomalies and one-way interaction. Results of this study are consistent with those of Pena et al. (2003,2004) although using a more recent reanalysis at higher resolution. Find more atmosphere-forcing coupled anomalies in the extratropics and ocean-forcing anomalies in the tropics. The LHF and SWR show the largest magnitude anomalies in the composite analysis. The turbulent flux responses are due to interactions between the differing responses in wind speed and near-surface gradients. The radiative fluxes responses are primarily tied to changes in cloud fraction, as expected, though longwave response can be tied more to changes in the upwelling component.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2022

Responses of Compound Daytime and Nighttime Warm-Dry and Warm-H Events to Individual Anthropogenic Forcings

Daytime heat is often associated with reduced soil moisture and cloud cover, while nighttime heat is connected to high humidity and increased cloud cover. Due to these differing mechanisms, compound daytime and nighttime heat events may respond differently to major anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, land-use and land-cover change). Here, we use GISS ModelE2.1-G historical single-forcing runs from 1955 to 2014 to examine how individual anthropogenic forcings affect compound heat events—specifically warm daytime and nighttime temperatures compounded with dry precipitation or high humidity conditions. We show that greenhouse gases alone amplify the natural frequency of warm-dry events by 1.5–5 times and warm-humid events by 2–9 times in tropical and extratropical latitudes. Conversely, aerosols and land-use/land-cover change reduce the frequency of these events, resulting in more modest increases and in some regions, declines, in the historical 'all-forcings' scenario. Individually, aerosol effects are stronger and more widespread compared to land-use, oftentimes reducing the natural frequency of these events by 60%–100%. The responses of these compound events are primarily driven by changes in daytime and nighttime temperatures through large-scale warming via greenhouse gases and cooling from aerosols and land-use/land-cover change. However, changes in warm-dry events are amplified in regions with concurrent precipitation declines (e.g. Central America, Mediterranean regions) and warm-humid events are amplified by global concurrent humidity increases. Additionally, we find differences between daytime and nighttime compound responses in the historical experiment that can be traced back to the individual forcings. In particular, aerosols produce a greater cooling effect on daytime relative to nighttime temperatures, which notably results in a historical reduction of Northern Hemisphere daytime warm-dry events relative to natural conditions. Our analysis provides a more comprehensive understanding of the significant impacts of different anthropogenic climate forcings on daytime and nighttime warm-dry and warm-humid events, informing future risk and impact assessments.

Anthropogenic forcings↗
NASA NTRS2004

Thermodynamic Conditions Favorable to Superlative Thunderstorm Updraft, Mixed Phase Microphysics and Lightning Flash Rate

Satellite observations of lightning flash rate have been merged with proximal surface station thermodynamic observations toward improving the understanding of the response of the updraft and lightning activity in the tropical atmosphere to temperature. The tropical results have led in turn to an examination of thermodynamic climatology over the continental United States in summertime and its comparison with exceptional electrical conditions documented in earlier studies. The tropical and mid-latitude results taken together support an important role for cloud base height in regulating the transfer of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) to updraft kinetic energy in thunderstorms. In the tropics, cloud base height is dominated by the dry bulb temperature over the wet bulb temperature as the lightning-regulating temperature in regions characterized by moist convection. In the extratropics, an elevated cloud base height may enable larger cloud water concentrations in the mixed phase region, a favorable condition for the positive charging of large ice particles that may result in thunderclouds with a reversed polarity of the main cloud dipole. The combined requirements of instability and cloud base height serve to confine the region of superlative electrification to the vicinity of the ridge in moist entropy in the western Great Plains.

Williams, E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effects of Longwave Cloud Radiative Forcing Anomalies on the Atmospheric Response to Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research community climate model (CCM2) has been used to investigate cloud radiative forcing (CRF) anomalies associated with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the effects of the longwave CRF (LWCRF) anomalies on the atmospheric response to the SST anomalies. The SST anomalies cause large CRF anomalies, both longwave and shortwave, as well as latent heat anomalies at low latitudes on a global scale. The relative magnitude of the simulated longwave and shortwave CRF anomalies is consistent with the result of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), implying that cloud height and cloud radiative properties such as emissivity and reflectivity are well simulated by the model. The LWCRF anomaly strongly enhances the precipitation anomaly in the whole tropical belt. The positive (negative) LWCRF anomaly warms (cools) the troposphere and destabilizes (stabilizes) the upper troposphere. The LWCRF anomaly enhances the Southern Oscillation and the related Walker circulation anomaly. The effects of the LWCRF anomaly are essential to the northern hemispheric extratropical circulation anomaly, the Pacific/North American pattern.

Chen, M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗
NASA NTRS1985

Transient response to localized episodic heating in the tropics

It is generally recognized that equatorial disturbances in the lower stratosphere are excited by convective latent heat release associated with the Internal Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recently, attention has also focused on tropical convection with regard to extratropical teleconnection patterns. Unlike equatorial waves which are trapped about the equator but propagate vertically, the latter extend well out of the tropics but are barotropic. They have been most widely discussed in connection with long-term climatological features. Both types of disturbances have been examined largely from the standpoint of steady monochromatic forcing, in the latter case zero frequency or time-mean heating. However, tropical convection as revealed by recent geostationary satellite imagery is anything but regular, surely not steady. Much of the heating variance is concentrated spatially within three localized convective centers: Indonesia, the Amazon, and the Congo. Convective activity within these regions undergoes an irregular evolution over the span of a couple of days. It involves a rather broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. The analysis of cloud brightness over the Eastern Atlantic and Africa suggests a characteristic time scale of 3-4 days and correlations scales in latitude and longitude of approximately 30 deg.

Salby, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sensitivity of warm-frontal processes to cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations

An extratropical cyclone that crossed the United States on 9-11 April 2009 was successfully simulated at high resolution (3-km horizontal grid spacing) using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The sensitivity of the associated warm front to increasing pollution levels was then explored by conducting the same experiment with three different background profiles of cloud-nucleating aerosol concentration. To the authors' knowledge, no study has examined the indirect effects of aerosols on warm fronts. The budgets of ice, cloud water, and rain in the simulation with the lowest aerosol concentrations were examined. The ice mass was found to be produced in equal amounts through vapor deposition and riming, and the melting of ice produced approximately 75% of the total rain. Conversion of cloud water to rain accounted for the other 25%. When cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations were increased, significant changes were seen in the budget terms, but total precipitation remained relatively constant. Vapor deposition onto ice increased, but riming of cloud water decreased such that there was only a small change in the total ice production and hence there was no significant change in melting. These responses can be understood in terms of a buffering effect in which smaller cloud droplets in the mixed-phase region lead to both an enhanced vapor deposition and decreased riming efficiency with increasing aerosol concentrations. Overall, while large changes were seen in the microphysical structure of the frontal cloud, cloud-nucleating aerosols had little impact on the precipitation production of the warm front.

ice↗