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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty in Experimental Data Analysis [Slides]

The talk was presented virtually to the Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Polish Academy of Sciences in Warsaw, Poland, December 21, 2020. Astronomical observations, unusual medical cases, physics experiments too costly to repeat, natural events like earthquakes, hurricanes – all of them are impossible to repeat yet produce important scientific information not achievable in other way. This data should not be treated as qualitative, anecdotal evidence only. It should be analyzed in a mathematically rigorous way to produce quantitative experimental data. Analysis method for one-of-a-kind event data differs from analysis of a repeated experiment data. For a repeated experiments the experimental error includes a range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by detectors. They are independent. Repetitions of any experiment, as similar as achievable, always have built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single true experimental value. Measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement system only. Modern digital measurements have very small uncertainty, frequently smaller than the range of true experimental values resulting from built-in differences in the experiment repetitions. When data from one-of-a-kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty can be reported.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sivers extraction with Neural Network

Pseudo-data with simulated experimental errors can be generated to train an ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) implemented on a regression to extract Transverse Momentum-dependent Distributions (TMDs). A preliminary analysis is presented on the reliability in extraction of the Sivers function imposed in the pseudo-data given the bounds on the experimental errors, data sparsity, and complexity of phase-space.

Fernando, Ishara↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and validation of the Alternative Nonlinear Two-phase Subchannel (ANTS) code

The Alternative Nonlinear Two-phase Subchannel solver (ANTS) code was written to provide a fast-running, steady-state, pin-resolved modeling and simulation tool for analysis of common boiling water reactor (BWR) geometry and common operating conditions. ANTS has been integrated into the Virtual Environment for Reactor Application (VERA) core simulator software, where it can be used to provide a thermal/hydraulic (T/H) subchannel solution that is then used to provide neutronic feedback as well as perform the fuel depletion and temperature solution. Herein, this paper presents the rigorous analysis performed on the ANTS code, which includes both code and solution verification testing, benchmarking with the existing two-phase subchannel capability in VERA, CTF, and validation testing using popular two-phase experiments such as PWR Sub-channel and Bundle Tests (PSBT), BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT), Risø, and FRIGG. This assessment was used to qualify ANTS for its intended applications before its use for core-scale, multiphysics BWR simulations. In general, it was found that agreement with experimental data was good; errors were within the range of experimental data uncertainty. Furthermore, code and solution verification confirmed that the governing equations and the most important closure terms were correctly implemented and behaving as expected.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Approach for Inferring Full-Scope Human Reliability Data Based on Simplified Simulator Data

This paper proposes a method for inferring full-scope human reliability data based on the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) data. It mainly focuses on the human errors observed when using simulators with different complexity levels. In the proposed method, the manner in which human error probabilities (HEPs) change as a result of increasing simulator complexity and how simulator complexity levels are quantified represent key information for inferring full-scope data. In the present study, SHEEP error data pertaining to actual professional operators using Rancor Microworld (Rancor) (i.e., a more simplified simulator) and Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) (i.e., a less simplified simulator) were compared with the HuREX error data. An approach to quantifying simulator complexity levels was then proposed based on information theory and acquired eye-tracker data.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Force field for calcium sulfate minerals to predict structural, hydration, and interfacial properties

Calcium sulfates such as anhydrite, hemihydrate, and gypsum find widespread use in building materials, implants, and tissue healing. We introduce a simple and compatible atomistic force field for all calcium sulfate phases that reproduces a wide range of experimental data including lattice parameters, surface, hydration, mechanical, and thermal properties in 1% to 5% accuracy relative to experiments. The performance is several times better than prior force fields and DFT methods, which lead to errors in structures and energies up to 100%. We explain (hkl) cleavage energies, the dynamics of (hkl) water interfaces, and new insights into molecular origins of crystal-facet specific hydration and solubility. Impressive agreement of computed and experimentally measured hydration energies is shown. The models add to the Interface force field (IFF) and are compatible with multiple force fields (CHARMM, AMBER, GROMOS, CVFF, PCFF, OPLS-AA) for property predictions of sulfate-containing materials from atoms to the large nanometer scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Light nuclei with semilocal momentum-space regularized chiral interactions up to third order

In this work, we present a systematic investigation of few-nucleon systems and light nuclei using the current Low Energy Nuclear Physics International Collaboration interactions comprising semilocal momentum-space regularized two- and three-nucleon forces up to third chiral order (N 2 LO). Following our earlier study utilizing the coordinate-space regularized interactions, the two low-energy constants entering the three-body force are determined from the triton binding energy and the differential cross-section minimum in elastic nucleon-deuteron scattering. Predictions are made for selected observables in elastic nucleon-deuteron scattering and in the deuteron breakup reactions, for properties of the A = 3 and A = 4 nuclei, and for spectra of p-shell nuclei up to A = 16. A comprehensive error analysis is performed including an estimation of correlated truncation uncertainties for nuclear spectra. The obtained predictions are generally found to agree with experimental data within errors. Similarly to the coordinate-space regularized chiral interactions at the same order, a systematic overbinding of heavier nuclei is observed, which sets in for A~10 and increases with A.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measuring the oscillator strength of intercombination lines of helium-like V ions in a laser-produced-plasma

In this work, we present results of measurements of the oscillator strength of intercombination lines of He-like Vanadium ions in high energy density (HED) laser-produced-plasmas and compare them with the simulations from commonly used codes and data from the NIST database. Whilst not yet sufficiently accurate to constrain different trusted atomic-physics models for the particular system studied, our results are in agreement with the available data within experimental error bars, yet differ from cruder approximations of the oscillator strength used in certain atomic-kinetics packages, suggesting that this general method could be further extended to be used as a measurement of the oscillator strength of additional atomic transitions under the extreme conditions that are achieved in HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiobjective Optimal Controlled Variable Selection for a Gas Turbine–Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Using a Multiagent Optimization Platform

Hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell systems have immense potential for high efficiency in electrical power generation with cleaner emissions compared with fossil-fueled power generation. We report a systematic controlled variable (CV) selection method is deployed for a hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell system in the HyPer (hybrid performance) facility at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) for maximizing its economic and control performance. A three-stage approach is used for the CV selection comprising a priori analysis, multiobjective optimization, and a posteriori analysis. The a priori analysis helps to screen off several candidate CVs, thus reducing the size of the combinatorial optimization problem for multiobjective CV selection. For optimal CV selection, a transfer function model of the HyPer facility is identified. By considering several candidate models, the final transfer function model is selected using Akaike’s Final Prediction Error criterion. Experimental data from the HyPer facility are used to estimate the noise in the measurement data. For solving the combinatorial multiobjective optimization problem for CV selection, a multiagent optimization platform comprising simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, and efficient ant colony optimization algorithms is used. Pareto-optimal CV sets exhibit a high trade-off between the economic and control objective. The a posteriori analysis is undertaken for several top Pareto-optimal CV sets. An optimal CV set is selected that shows the best compromise between process economics and controllability under both nominal and off-design conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

An evaluation for geometries, formation enthalpies, and dissociation energies of diatomic and triatomic (C, H, N, O), NO 3 , and HNO 3 molecules from the PAW DFT method with PBE and optB88-vdW functionals

The structural geometries, formation enthalpies, and dissociation energies of all diatomic and triatomic molecules consisting of the four basic elements C, H, N, and/or O are calculated using the projector augmented wave density functional theory (DFT) method with the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof and optB88-vdW exchange-correlation functionals. The calculations are also extended to two larger molecules NO 3 and HNO 3 , which consist of four and five atoms, respectively. In total, 82 molecules or isomers are considered in the calculations. The geometric parameters including 42 bond lengths and 15 bond angles of these molecules calculated using the planewave DFT method are highly satisfactory, relative to the available experimental data. The error analysis is also performed for 49 formation enthalpies and 138 dissociation energies (including 51 atomization energies as well as the corresponding bond dissociation energies). The results are also compared with the previous data from various atomic-orbital-based methods for molecules and from similar or different planewave DFT methods for various solids and other molecules. This provides an informative and instructive evaluation especially for calculating the large-size material systems containing these small molecules as well as for developing the DFT methods further.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time Distribution Analysis for Task Primitives to Support Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

To support data collection for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA), this study investigates time distributions for task primitives defined in the Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection rules (GOMS)–Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method and Human Reliability data EXtraction (HuREX). GOMS-HRA was developed to provide cognition-based time and human error probability (HEP) information for dynamic HRA calculations within the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework, while HuREX is a comprehensive HRA data collection method developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). In this paper, we examine time distributions by using experimental data collected from the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) study, which proposes an HRA data collection framework to complement full-scope simulator research and gather input data for dynamic HRA by using simplified simulators such as the Rancor Microworld simulator. This paper investigates whether the time required for GOMS-HRA and HuREX task primitives fits 13 statistical distributions. Additionally, we compare and discuss the time distributions obtained from both student operators and professional operators. The result was that this study identified several time distributions for five GOMS-HRA and four HuREX task primitives. In the future, the results of this study are expected to provide objective reference data on the elapsed time for task primitives and aid in realistically simulating scenarios within dynamic HRA.

Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Investigation of Time Distributions for Task Primitives to Support the HUNTER Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

As an effort to support data collection for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA), this study investigates time distributions for task primitives defined in the Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection rules (GOMS)–Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method. GOMS-HRA was developed to provide cognition-based time and human error probability information for dynamic HRA calculation in the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework. HUNTER is a framework to support the dynamic modelling of human error in conjunction with other modelling tools. In this paper, we investigate time distributions using experimental data collected from the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) study, which suggests an HRA data collection framework to complement full-scope simulator research as well as collect input data for dynamic HRA using simplified simulators such as the Rancor Microworld Simulator. In this study, time required for GOMS-HRA task primitives to satisfy thirteen statistical distributions is investigated. Then, the time distributions from student operators and professional operators are compared and discussed. As a result, this study identified several time distributions on five GOMS-HRA task primitives at a statistically significant level. According to analyses to date, a greater number of significant time distributions was found in abnormal or emergency operating procedures rather than standard operating procedures. In the future, it is expected that the result of this study can provide objective reference on elapsed time data for task primitives as well as help to realistically simulate scenarios within dynamic HRA.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Beyond optimization—supervised learning applications in relativistic laser-plasma experiments

We explore the applications of machine learning techniques in relativistic laser-plasma experiments beyond optimization purposes. We predict the beam charge of electrons produced in a laser wakefield accelerator given the laser wavefront change caused by a deformable mirror. Machine learning enables feature analysis beyond merely searching for an optimal beam charge, showing that specific aberrations in the laser wavefront are favored in generating higher beam charges. Supervised learning models allow characterizing the measured data quality as well as recognizing irreproducible data and potential outliers. Furthermore, we also include virtual measurement errors in the experimental data to examine the model robustness under these conditions. This work demonstrates how machine learning methods can benefit data analysis and physics interpretation in a highly nonlinear problem of relativistic laser-plasma interaction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

BayFlux: A Bayesian method to quantify metabolic Fluxes and their uncertainty at the genome scale

Metabolic fluxes, the number of metabolites traversing each biochemical reaction in a cell per unit time, are crucial for assessing and understanding cell function. 13 C Metabolic Flux Analysis ( 13 C MFA) is considered to be the gold standard for measuring metabolic fluxes. 13 C MFA typically works by leveraging extracellular exchange fluxes as well as data from 13 C labeling experiments to calculate the flux profile which best fit the data for a small, central carbon, metabolic model. However, the nonlinear nature of the 13 C MFA fitting procedure means that several flux profiles fit the experimental data within the experimental error, and traditional optimization methods offer only a partial or skewed picture, especially in “non-gaussian” situations where multiple very distinct flux regions fit the data equally well. Here, we present a method for flux space sampling through Bayesian inference (BayFlux), that identifies the full distribution of fluxes compatible with experimental data for a comprehensive genome-scale model. This Bayesian approach allows us to accurately quantify uncertainty in calculated fluxes. We also find that, surprisingly, the genome-scale model of metabolism produces narrower flux distributions (reduced uncertainty) than the small core metabolic models traditionally used in 13 C MFA. The different results for some reactions when using genome-scale models vs core metabolic models advise caution in assuming strong inferences from 13 C MFA since the results may depend significantly on the completeness of the model used. Based on BayFlux, we developed and evaluated novel methods (P- 13 C MOMA and P- 13 C ROOM) to predict the biological results of a gene knockout, that improve on the traditional MOMA and ROOM methods by quantifying prediction uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Errors introduced in fission neutron spectrum measurements using a single reference

Measurements of physical quantities are often made relative to a reference quantity, simplifying the interpretation of the measurement and its uncertainties. However, if applied without careful considerations, this technique can carry with it a significant and complex systematic error that is usually ignored. For example, measurements of continuous neutron spectra relative to a reference spectrum yield a result that does not properly include the important effects of neutron scattering in the experimental environment. These effects act to distort the measured spectrum shape and create notable errors in spectrum-integrated quantities. While this effect is one of a series of known potential sources of systematic error including, but not limited to target impurities, angular distributions, incident beam flux, and others, the error introduced from differences in environmental scattering effects between the reference and desired spectra are frequently overlooked. In this work, we demonstrate the origin of this error using simulated data corresponding to measurements of the neutron-induced prompt fission neutron spectra of 233 U, 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu as well as the spontaneous fission neutron spectrum of 252 Cf. Errors in the spectrum shape can be as high as 10%–15% depending on the combination of incident and outgoing neutron energy. The spectrum integral and average spectrum energy also contain errors that change with incident neutron energy and can be as high as ~2%. Although this study is based on simulated data, we also show a method for proving that this error exists in an experimental data set and we show a correction that can be applied to results of this type to obtain a more accurate result, thereby largely removing systematic errors from environmental scattering effects. The potential for these kinds of errors should be considered in measurements producing continuous neutron spectra.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordination Sphere of Lanthanide Aqua Ions Resolved with Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics and X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

To resolve the fleeting structures of lanthanide Ln 3+ aqua ions in solution, we (i) performed the first ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of the entire series of Ln 3+ aqua ions in explicit water solvent using pseudopotentials and basis sets recently optimized for lanthanides and (ii) measured the symmetry of the hydrating waters about Ln 3+ ions (Nd 3+ , Dy 3+ , Er 3+ , Lu 3+ ) for the first time with extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS). EXAFS spectra were measured experimentally and generated from AIMD trajectories to directly compare simulation, which concurrently considers the electronic structure and the atomic dynamics in solution, with experiment. In this study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of EXAFS multiple-scattering analysis (up to 6.5 Å) to measure Ln–O distances and angular correlations (i.e., symmetry) and elucidate the molecular geometry of the first hydration shell. This evaluation, in combination with symmetry-dependent L 3 - and L 1 -edge spectral analysis, shows that the AIMD simulations remarkably reproduces the experimental EXAFS data. The error in the predicted Ln–O distances is less than 0.07 Å for the later lanthanides, while we observed excellent agreement with predicted distances within experimental uncertainty for the early lanthanides. Our analysis revealed a dynamic, symmetrically disordered first coordination shell, which does not conform to a single molecular geometry for most lanthanides. This work sheds critical light on the highly elusive coordination geometry of the Ln 3+ aqua ions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure ranking methods

A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction has been organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. The results are presented in two parts, with this second part focusing on methods for ranking crystal structures in order of stability. The exercise involved standardized sets of structures seeded from a range of structure generation methods. Participants from 22 groups applied several periodic DFT-D methods, machine learned potentials, force fields derived from empirical data or quantum chemical calculations, and various combinations of the above. In addition, one non-energy-based scoring function was used. Results showed that periodic DFT-D methods overall agreed with experimental data within expected error margins, while one machine learned model, applying system-specific AIMnet potentials, agreed with experiment in many cases demonstrating promise as an efficient alternative to DFT-based methods. For target XXXII, a consensus was reached across periodic DFT methods, with consistently high predicted energies of experimental forms relative to the global minimum (above 4 kJ mol −1 at both low and ambient temperatures) suggesting a more stable polymorph is likely not yet observed. The calculation of free energies at ambient temperatures offered improvement of predictions only in some cases (for targets XXVII and XXXI). Several avenues for future research have been suggested, highlighting the need for greater efficiency considering the vast amounts of resources utilized in many cases.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of reactive burn and Jones-Wilkins-Lee parameters for simulations of a detonation-driven flow experiment with uncertainty quantification

Here, uncertainties in the explosive-specific parameters of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) are carefully considered in hydrodynamic simulations of an explosive experiment to minimize the error in the flow prediction. Experimental data of the leading shock position in the transverse direction over time serves as the prediction metric for quantifying simulation prediction error. The uncertainty quantification technique, global sensitivity analysis, is utilized to determine the JWL parameters to which the transverse shock propagation is most sensitive. A polynomial response surface (PRS) is constructed in the space of the most influential JWL parameters, and the point of minimum error between the experimental data and the PRS yields calibrated JWL parameters for the experimental flow. The simulation results following the parameter calibration show good agreement with the experimental data. It was found that two significant parameters, the heat release per unit mass of reactant Q and JWL model exponent R 1 are strongly related, which makes it difficult to identify accurate values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the ghost and mirror fields in the Nernst signal induced by superconducting fluctuations

In this work, we present a complete analysis of the Nernst signal due to superconducting fluctuations in a large variety of superconductors from conventional to unconventional ones. A closed analytical expression of the fluctuation contribution to the Nernst signal is obtained in a large range of temperature and magnetic field. We apply this expression directly to experimental measurements of the Nernst signal in Nb x Si 1-x thin films and URu 2 Si 2 superconductors. Both magnetic field and temperature dependence of the available data are fitted with very good accuracy using only two fitting parameters, the superconducting temperature T c0 and the upper critical field H c2 (0). The obtained values agree very well with experimentally obtained values. We also extract the ghost lines (the maximum of the Nernst signal for constant temperature or magnetic field) from the complete expression and also compare it to several experimentally obtained curves. Our approach predicts a linear temperature dependence for the ghost critical field well above T c0 . Within the errors of the experimental data, this linearity is indeed observed in many superconductors far from T c0 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗