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Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Implications of the iron oxide phase transition on the interiors of rocky exoplanets

The discovery of an extraordinary number of extrasolar planets, characterized by an unexpected variety of sizes, masses and orbits, challenges our understanding of the formation and evolution of the planets in the Solar System and the perception of the Earth as the prototypical habitable world. Many exoplanets appear to be rocky and yet more massive than the Earth, with expected pressures and temperatures of hundreds of gigapascal and thousands of Kelvin in their deep interiors. At these conditions, the properties of bridgmanite and ferropericlase, expected to dominate their mantles, are largely unconstrained, limiting our knowledge of their interior structure. Here we used nano-second X-ray diffraction and dynamic compression to experimentally investigate the atomic structure and density of iron oxide (FeO), one of the end-members of the (Mg,Fe)O ferropericlase solid solution, up to 700 GPa, a pressure exceeding the core–mantle boundary of a 5 Earth masses planet. Our data document the stability of the high-pressure cesium-chloride B2 structure above 300 GPa, well below the pressure required for magnesium oxide (MgO) to adopt the same phase. These observations, complemented by the calculation of the binary MgO–FeO phase diagram, reveal complex stratification and rheology inside large terrestrial exoplanets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗

Star-exoplanet interactions: A growing interdisciplinary field in heliophysics

Traditionally, heliophysics is characterized as the study of the near-Earth space environment, where plasmas and neutral gases originating from the Earth, the Sun, and other solar system bodies interact in ways that are detectable only through in-situ or close-range (usually within ~10 AU) remote sensing. As a result, heliophysics has data from the space environment around a handful of solar system objects, in particular the Sun and Earth. Comparatively, astrophysics has data from an extensive array of objects, but is more limited in temporal, spatial, and wavelength information from any individual object. Thus, our understanding of planetary space environments as a complex, multi-dimensional network of specific interacting systems may in the past have seemed to have little to do with the highly diverse space environments detected through astrophysical methods. Recent technological advances have begun to bridge this divide. Exoplanetary studies are opening up avenues to study planetary environments beyond our solar system, with missions like Kepler, TESS, and JWST, along with increasing capabilities of ground-based observations. At the same time, heliophysics studies are pushing beyond the boundaries of our heliosphere with Voyager, IBEX, and the future IMAP mission. The interdisciplinary field of star-exoplanet interactions is a critical, growing area of study that enriches heliophysics. A multidisciplinary approach to heliophysics enables us to better understand universal processes that operate in diverse environments, as well as the evolution of our solar system and extreme space weather. The expertise, data, theory, and modeling tools developed by heliophysicists are crucial in understanding the space environments of exoplanets, their host stars, and their potential habitability. The mutual benefit that heliophysics and exoplanetary studies offer each other depends on strong, continuing solar system-focused and Earth-focused heliophysics studies. The heliophysics discipline requires new targeted funding to support inter-divisional opportunities, including small multi-disciplinary research projects, large collaborative research teams, and observations targeting the heliophysics of planetary and exoplanet systems. Here we discuss areas of heliophysics-relevant exoplanetary research, observational opportunities and challenges, and ways to promote the inclusion of heliophysics within the wider exoplanetary community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stellar wind impact on early atmospheres around unmagnetized Earth-like planets

ABSTRACT Stellar rotation at early ages plays a crucial role in the survival of primordial atmospheres around Earth-mass exoplanets. Earth-like planets orbiting fast-rotating stars may undergo complete photoevaporation within the first few hundred Myr driven by the enhanced stellar XUV [X-rays and extreme ultraviolet (EUV)] radiation, while planets orbiting slow-rotating stars are expected to experience difficulty in losing their primordial envelopes. Besides the action of stellar radiation, stellar winds induce additional erosion on these primordial atmospheres, altering their morphology, extent, and causing supplementary atmospheric losses. In this paper, we study the impact of activity-dependent stellar winds on primordial atmospheres to evaluate the extent to which the action of these winds can be significant in the whole planetary evolution at early evolutionary stages. We performed 3D magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of the interaction of photoevaporating atmospheres around unmagnetized Earth-mass planets in the time span between 50 and 500 Myr, analysing the joint evolution of stellar winds and atmospheres for both fast- and slow-rotating stars. Our results reveal substantial changes in the evolution of primordial atmospheres when influenced by fast-rotating stars, with a significant reduction in extent at early ages. In contrast, atmospheres embedded in the stellar winds from slow-rotating stars remain largely unaltered. The interaction of the magnetized stellar winds with the ionized upper atmospheres of these planets allows us to evaluate the formation and evolution of different MHD structures, such as double bow shocks and induced magnetospheres. This work will shed light on the first evolutionary stages of Earth-like exoplanets, which are of crucial relevance in terms of planet habitability.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Constraining the destruction rate of K 40 in stellar nucleosynthesis through the study of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction

Background: We present that K 40 plays a significant role in the radiogenic heating of Earth-like exoplanets, which can affect the development of a habitable environment on their surfaces. The initial amount of K 40 in the interior of these planets depends on the composition of the interstellar clouds from which they formed. Within this context, nuclear reactions that regulate the production of K 40 during stellar evolution can play a critical role. Purpose: In this study, we constrain for the first time the astrophysical reaction rate of K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 , which is responsible for the destruction of K 40 during stellar nucleosynthesis. We provide to the nuclear physics community high-resolution data on the cross section and angular distribution of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction. These are important to various applications involving Ar 40 . The associated reaction rate of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 process addresses a reaction rate gap in the Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics REACLIB database in the region of intermediate-mass isotopes. Methods: We performed differential cross-section measurements on the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction, for six energies in the center-of-mass system between 3.2 and 4.0 MeV and various angles between 0 ° and 135 ° . The experiment took place at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory at Ohio University using the beam swinger target location and a standard neutron time-of-flight technique. We extracted total and partial cross sections by integrating the double differential cross sections we measured. Results: The total and partial cross sections varied with energy due to the contribution from isobaric analog states and Ericson type fluctuations. The energy-averaged neutron angular distributions were symmetrical relative to 90 ° . Based on the experimental data, local transmission coefficients were extracted and were used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates of Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 and K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reactions. The new rates were found to vary significantly from the theoretical rates in the REACLIB library. We implemented the new rates in network calculations to study nucleosynthesis via the slow neutron capture process, and we found that the produced abundance of K 40 is reduced by up to 10% compared to calculations with the library rates. At the same time, the above result removes a significant portion of the previous theoretical uncertainty on the K 40 yields from stellar evolution calculations. Conclusions: Our results support a destruction rate of K 40 in massive stars via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction that is larger compared to previous estimates. The rate of K 40 destruction via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction now has a dramatically reduced uncertainty based on our measurement. Lastly, this result directly affects the predicted stellar yields of K 40 from nucleosynthesis, which is a critical input parameter for the galactic chemical evolution models that are currently employed for the study of significant properties of exoplanets.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High-resolution Spectra of Earth-like Planets Orbiting Red Giant Host Stars

In the near future we will have ground- and space-based telescopes that are designed to observe and characterize Earth-like planets. While attention is focused on exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars, more than 150 exoplanets have already been detected orbiting red giants, opening the intriguing question of what rocky worlds orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of red giants would be like and how to characterize them. We present a high-resolution spectral database of reflection and emission spectra for nominal Earth-like planets orbiting in the red giant HZ from the visible to infrared (0.4–20 μm) for planets orbiting at the Earth-equivalent distance. We also show the change of such planetary spectra through the evolution of their red giant hosts. While the luminosity of the host increases the contrast ratio between star and planet, the increased orbital distance of the HZ for red giant hosts relaxes the light suppression requirements close to the star, which could make such planets interesting targets to characterize and search for signs of life, if new coronagraph designs with higher suppression at larger orbital separations could be developed. We assess the feasibility of characterizing atmospheric features including biosignatures for such planets with the proposed mission concept Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Dark Planets of the WASP-47 Planetary System

Exoplanet discoveries have demonstrated a vast range of planetary system architectures. The demographic of compact planetary systems are especially interesting from the perspective of planetary formation and the evolution of orbital dynamics. Another interesting demographic is that of giant planets in eccentric orbits, since these planets have likely had a dynamical history involving planet–planet scattering events. The WASP-47 system is particularly fascinating since it combines these two demographics, having both compact planetary orbits and a giant planet on an eccentric orbit within the system the habitable zone. Here we provide an analysis of the WASP-47 system from the perspective of atmospheric detection and characterization. We discuss the system architecture and the potential for additional long-period planets. We simulate expected phase variations as a function of planet orbital phase for the system due to the combined effect of the planets. We present an analysis of precision photometry of WASP-47 from the K2 mission, phased on each of the planets. The analysis rules out the detection of phase signatures for the two inner-most planets, enabling constraints upon their albedos and atmospheric properties. Our study concludes that WASP-47b is an example of a “dark” planet with a tentative geometric albedo of 0.016 and a 1σ upper limit of 0.17. The WASP-47e data are consistent with a broad range of albedos, but also show early evidence of having a relatively low albedo. The growing number of dark, short-period giant planets provide the framework of an ideal sample for studying low albedo dependence on atmospheric composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The HOSTS Survey: Evidence for an Extended Dust Disk and Constraints on the Presence of Giant Planets in the Habitable Zone of β Leo

The young (50–400 Myr) A3V star β Leo is a primary target to study the formation history and evolution of extrasolar planetary systems as one of the few stars with known hot (∼1600 K), warm (∼600 K), and cold (∼120 K) dust belt components. In this paper, we present deep mid-infrared measurements of the warm dust brightness obtained with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) as part of its exozodiacal dust survey (HOSTS). The measured excess is 0.47% ± 0.050% within the central 1.5 au, rising to 0.81% ± 0.026% within 4.5 au, outside the habitable zone of β Leo. This dust level is 50 ± 10 times greater than in the solar system’s zodiacal cloud. Poynting–Robertson drag on the cold dust detected by Spitzer, and Herschel underpredicts the dust present in the habitable zone of β Leo, suggesting an additional delivery mechanism (e.g., comets) or an additional belt at ∼5.5 au. A model of these dust components is provided that implies the absence of planets more than a few Saturn masses between ∼5 au and the outer belt at ∼40 au. We also observationally constrain giant planets with the LBTI imaging channel at 3.8 μm wavelength. Assuming an age of 50 Myr, any planet in the system between approximately 5–50 au must be less than a few Jupiter masses, consistent with our dust model. Taken together, these observations showcase the deep contrasts and detection capabilities attainable by the LBTI for both warm exozodiacal dust and giant exoplanets in or near the habitable zone of nearby stars.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Origin of Life on Mars: Suitability and Opportunities

Although the habitability of early Mars is now well established, its suitability for conditions favorable to an independent origin of life (OoL) has been less certain. With continued exploration, evidence has mounted for a widespread diversity of physical and chemical conditions on Mars that mimic those variously hypothesized as settings in which life first arose on Earth. Mars has also provided water, energy sources, CHNOPS elements, critical catalytic transition metal elements, as well as B, Mg, Ca, Na and K, all of which are elements associated with life as we know it. With its highly favorable sulfur abundance and land/ocean ratio, early wet Mars remains a prime candidate for its own OoL, in many respects superior to Earth. The relatively well-preserved ancient surface of planet Mars helps inform the range of possible analogous conditions during the now-obliterated history of early Earth. Continued exploration of Mars also contributes to the understanding of the opportunities for settings enabling an OoL on exoplanets. Favoring geochemical sediment samples for eventual return to Earth will enhance assessments of the likelihood of a Martian OoL.

transition elements↗

Exosphere Modeling of Proxima b: A Case Study of Photochemical Escape with a Venus-like Atmosphere

Exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs within habitable zones are exposed to stellar environments more extreme than that terrestrial planets experience in our solar system, which can significantly impact the atmospheres of the exoplanets and affect their habitability and sustainability. This study provides the first prediction of hot oxygen corona structure and the associated photochemical loss from a 1 bar CO 2 -dominated atmosphere of a Venus-like rocky exoplanet, where dissociative recombination of O 2 + ions is assumed to be the major source reaction for the escape of neutral O atoms and formation of the hot O corona (or exospheres) as on Mars and Venus. We employ a 3D Monte Carlo code to simulate the exosphere of Proxima Centauri b (PCb) based on the ionosphere simulated by a 3D magnetohydrodynamic model. Our simulation results show that variability of the stellar wind dynamic pressure over one orbital period of PCb does not affect the overall spatial structure of the hot O corona but contributes to the change in the global hot O escape rate that varies by an order of magnitude. The escape increases dramatically when the planet possesses its intrinsic magnetic fields as the ionosphere becomes more extended with the presence of a global magnetic field. Furthermore, the extended hot O corona may lead to a more extended H exosphere through collisions between thermal H and hot O, which exemplifies the importance of considering nonthermal populations in exospheres to interpret future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗