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At least 19 records

Global Validation of Single-Station Schumann Resonance Lightning Location

Global measurements of large, optically bright lightning events from the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite are used to validate estimates of lightning location from single-station Schumann resonance (SR) data. Bearing estimates are obtained through conventional magnetic direction-finding techniques, while source range is estimated from the range-dependent impedance spectrum of individual SR transients. An analysis of 40 such transients suggests that single-station techniques can locate lightning globally with an accuracy of 1-2mm. This is confirmed by further validation at close ranges from flashes detected by the National Lightning Detection-Network (NLDN). Observations with both OTD and SR systems may be useful for globally locating lightning with necessary, if not sufficient, characteristics to trigger mesospheric sprites.

Boccippio, Dennis↗

Energy, frequency, and distance of moonquakes at the Apollo 17 site

'Thermal' moonquakes have been detected at the Apollo 17 site. A typical event releases about 1 to 10 million ergs of energy. The annual seismic energy release for the events observed in the Taurus-Littrow Valley is estimated at 100 billion ergs. Such small events would not cause impossibly rapid erosion on either the North Massif or within the craters of the Central Cluster. Seismic events become increasingly frequent after sunrise and reach a maximum at sunset. The largest events, however, occur most commonly near lunar noon. Rise times of the seismic signals, after being calibrated by the well-located Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment (LSPE) seismic sources, were used to estimate distances to the seismic events. Most seismic events (about 90%) appear to occur within 2.5 km of the seismometer array.

Cooper, M. R.↗

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗

Terrestrial kilometric radiation: 1: Spatial structures studies

Observations are presented of lunar occultations of the earth at 250 kHz obtained with the Radio-Astronomy-Explorer-2 satellite which were used to derive two dimensional maps of the location of the sources of terrestrial kilometric radiation (TKR). By examining the two dimensional source distributions as a function of the observer's location (lunar orbit) with respect to the magnetosphere, the average three dimensional location of the emission regions can be estimated. Although TKR events at 250 kHz can often be observed at projected distances corresponding to the 250 kHz electron gyro or plasma level (approximately 2 earth radii), many events are observed much farther from the earth (between 5 and 15 earth radii). Dayside emission apparently in the region of the polar cusp and the magnetosheath and night emission associated with regions of the magnetotail are examined. The nightside emission is suggestive of a mechanism involving plasma sheet electron precipitation in the pre-midnight sector.

Alexander, J. K.↗

Terrestrial kilometric radiation. I - Spatial structure studies

Observations of lunar occultations of earth at 250 kHz, obtained with the Radio Astronomy Explorer 2 satellite, have been used to derive two-dimensional maps of the location of the sources of terrestrial kilometric radiation (TKR). By examining the two-dimensional source distributions as a function of the observer's location (lunar orbit) with respect to the magnetosphere, the average three-dimensional location of the emission regions can be estimated. Although TKR events at 250 kHz can often be observed at projected distances corresponding to the 250-kHz electron gyro or plasma level (about 2 earth radii), many events are observed much farther from earth (about 5 to 15 radii). On the dayside, emission was apparently observed in the region of the polar cusp and the magnetosheath at a magnetic latitude of about 70 deg; in the night hemisphere, emission is found to be associated with regions of the magnetotail at latitudes of at least 70 deg. The nightside emission is suggestive of a mechanism involving plasma-sheet electron precipitation in the premidnight sector.

Alexander, J. K.↗

Multiple-satellite studies of magnetospheric substorms: Plasma sheet recovery and the poleward leap of auroral-zone activity

Particle observations from pairs of satellites (Ogo 5, Vela 4A and 5B, Imp 3) during the recovery of plasma sheet thickness late in substorms were examined. Six of the nine events occurred within about 5 min in locations near the estimated position of the neutral sheet, but over wide ranges of east-west and radial separations. The time of occurrence and spatial extent of the recovery were related to the onset (defined by ground Pi 2 pulsations) and approximate location (estimated from ground mid-latitude magnetic signatures) of substorm expansions. It was found that the plasma sheet recovery occurred 10 - 30 min after the last in a series of Pi bursts, which were interpreted to indicate that the recovery was not due directly to a late, high latitude substorm expansion. The recovery was also observed to occur after the substorm current wedge had moved into the evening sector and to extend far to the east of the center of the last preceding substorm expansion.

Pytte, T.↗

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter: Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics - Pt. 2

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Menard, Richard↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (<10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Marusiak, Angela G.↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (< 10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Angela G Marusiak↗

Search for gamma-ray events in the BATSE data base

We find large location errors and error radii in the locations of channel 1 Cygnus X-1 events. These errors and their associated uncertainties are a result of low signal-to-noise ratios (a few sigma) in the two brightest detectors for each event. The untriggered events suffer from similarly low signal-to-noise ratios, and their location errors are expected to be at least as large as those found for Cygnus X-1 with a given signal-to-noise ratio. The statistical error radii are consistent with those found for Cygnus X-1 and with the published estimates. We therefore expect approximately 20 - 30 deg location errors for the untriggered events. Hence, many of the untriggered events occurring within a few months of the triggered activity from SGR 1900 plus 14 are indeed consistent with the SGR source location, although Cygnus X-1 is also a good candidate.

Lewin, Walter↗

NASA's Meteoroid Environments Office's Response to Three Significant Bolide Events Over North America

Being the only U.S. Government entity charged with monitoring the meteor environment, the Meteoroid Environment Office has deployed a network of all sky and wide field meteor cameras, along with the appropriate software tools to quickly analyze data from these systems. However, the coverage of this network is still quite limited, forcing the incorporation of data from other cameras posted to the internet in analyzing many of the fireballs reported by the public and media. A procedure has been developed that determines the analysis process for a given fireball event based on the types and amount of data available. The differences between these analysis process will be explained and outlined by looking at three bolide events, all of which were large enough to produce meteorites. The first example is an ideal event - a bright meteor that occurred over NASA's All Sky Camera Network on August 2, 2014. With clear video of the event from various angles, a high-accuracy trajectory, beginning and end heights, orbit and approximate brightness/size of the event are able to be found very quickly using custom software. The bolide had the potential to have dropped meteorites, so dark flight analysis and modeling was performed, allowing potential fall locations to be mapped as a function of meteorite mass. The second case study was a bright bolide that occurred November 3, 2014 over West Virginia. This was just north of the NASA southeastern all-sky network, and just south of the Ohio-Pennsylvania network. This case study showcases the MEO's ability to use social media and various internet sources to locate videos of the event from obscure sources (including the Washington Monument) for anything that will permit a determination of a basic trajectory and fireball light curve The third case study will highlight the ability to use doppler weather radar in helping locate meteorites, which enable a definitive classification of the impactor. The input data and analysis steps differ for each case study, but the goals remain the same - a trajectory, orbit, and mass estimate for the bolide within hours of the event, and, for events with a high probability of producing meteorites, a location of the strewn field within a day.

Blaauw, Rhiannon C.↗

A study of various methods for calculating locations of lightning events

This article reports on the results of numerical experiments on finding the location of lightning events using different numerical methods. The methods include linear least squares, nonlinear least squares, statistical estimations, cluster analysis and angular filters and combinations of such techniques. The experiments involved investigations of methods for excluding fake solutions which are solutions that appear to be reasonable but are in fact several kilometers distant from the actual location. Some of the conclusions derived from the study are that bad data produces fakes, that no fool-proof method of excluding fakes was found, that a short base-line interferometer under development at Kennedy Space Center to measure the direction cosines of an event shows promise as a filter for excluding fakes. The experiments generated a number of open questions, some of which are discussed at the end of the report.

Cannon, John R.↗

Stochastic Estimation and Non-Linear Wall-Pressure Sources in a Separating/Reattaching Flow

Simultaneous wall-pressure and PIV measurements are used to study the conditional flow field associated with surface-pressure generation in a separating/reattaching flow established over a fence-with-splitter-plate geometry. The conditional flow field is captured using linear and quadratic stochastic estimation based on the occurrence of positive and negative pressure events in the vicinity of the mean reattachment location. The results shed light on the dominant flow structures associated with significant wall-pressure generation. Furthermore, analysis based on the individual terms in the stochastic estimation expansion shows that both the linear and non-linear flow sources of the coherent (conditional) velocity field are equally important contributors to the generation of the conditional surface pressure.

Naguib, A.↗

Classification of Small Negative Lightning Reports at the KSC-ER

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Eastern Range (ER) operate an extensive suite of lightning sensors because Florida experiences the highest area density of ground strikes in the United States, with area densities approaching 16 fl/sq km/yr when accumulated in 10x10 km (100 sq km) grids. The KSC-ER use data derived from two cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning detection networks, the "Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System" (CGLSS) and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (TradeMark) (NLDN) plus a 3-dimensional lightning mapping system, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system, to provide warnings for ground operations and to insure mission safety during space launches. For operational applications at the KSC-ER it is important to understand the performance of each lightning detection system in considerable detail. In this work we examine a specific subset of the CGLSS stroke reports that have low values of the negative inferred peak current, Ip, i.e. values between 0 and -7 kA, and were thought to produce a new ground contact (NGC). When possible, the NLDN and LDAR systems were used to validate the CGLSS classification and to determine how many of these reported strokes were first strokes, subsequent strokes in a pre-existing channel (PEC), or cloud pulses that the CGLSS misclassified as CG strokes. It is scientifically important to determine the smallest current that can reach the ground either in the form of a first stroke or by way of a subsequent stroke that creates a new ground contact. In Biagi et al (2007), 52 low amplitude, negative return strokes ([Ip] < or = 10 kA) were evaluated in southern Arizona, northern Texas, and southern Oklahoma. The authors found that 50-87% of the small NLDN reports could be classified as CG (either first or subsequent strokes) on the basis of video and waveform recordings. Low amplitude return strokes are interesting because they are usually difficult to detect, and they are thought to bypass conventional lightning protection that relies on a sufficient attractive radius to prevent "shielding failure" (Golde, 1977). They also have larger location errors compared to the larger current events. In this study, we use the estimated peak current provided by the CGLSS and the results of our classification to determine the minimum Ip for each category of CG stroke and its probability of occurrence. Where possible, these results are compared to the findings in the literature.

Ward, Jennifer G.↗

The Structure and Evolution of LOCBURST: The BATSE Burst Location Algorithm

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) location algorithm used to produce the BATSE GRB locations is described. The general flow of control of the current location algorithm is presented, and the significant properties of the various physical inputs required are identified. The development of the burst location algorithm during the releases of the BATSE IB, 2B, and 3B GRB catalogs is presented so that the reasons for the differences in the positions and error estimates between the catalogs can be understood. In particular, differences between the 2B and 3B locations are discussed for events that have moved significantly and the reasons for the changes explained. The locations of bursts located independently by the interplanetary network (IPN) are used to illustrate the effect on burst location accuracy of various components of the algorithm. IPN data and locations from other gamma-ray instruments are used to calculate estimates of the systematic errors on BATSE burst locations.

Pendleton, Geoffrey N.↗

The Structure of Evolution LOCBURST: The BATSE Burst Location Algorithm

The gamma-ray bursts (GRB) location algorithm used to produce the BATSE GRB locations is described. The general flow of control of the current location algorithm is presented and the significant properties of the various physical inputs required are identified. The development of the burst location algorithm during the releases of the BATSE 1B, 2B, and 3B gamma-ray burst catalogs is presented so that the reasons for the differences in the positions and error estimates between the catalogs can be understood. In particular, differences between the 2B and 3B locations are discussed for events that have moved significantly and the reasons for the changes explained. The locations of bursts located independently by the interplanetary network are used to illustrate the effect on burst location accuracy of various components of the algorithm. IPN data as well as locations from other gamma-ray instruments are used to calculate estimates of the systematic errors on BATSE burst locations.

Pendleton, Geoffrey N.↗

Initial Demonstration of the Real-Time Safety Monitoring Framework for the National Airspace System Using Flight Data

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have an automated framework to provide an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecast, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. Towards this end, as part of our earlier work, we formulated the Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) framework for monitoring and predicting the state of safety and to predict unsafe events. In our previous work, the RTSM framework was demonstrated in simulation on three different constructed scenarios. In this paper, we further develop the framework and demonstrate it on real flight data from multiple data sources. Specifically, the flight data is obtained through the Shadow Mode Assessment using Realistic Technologies for the National Airspace System (SMART-NAS) Testbed that serves as a central point of collection, integration, and access of information from these different data sources. By testing and evaluating using real-world scenarios, we may accelerate the acceptance of the RTSM framework towards deployment. In this paper we demonstrate the framework's capability to not only estimate the state of safety in the NAS, but predict the time and location of unsafe events such as a loss of separation between two aircraft, or an aircraft encountering convective weather. The experimental results highlight the capability of the approach, and the kind of information that can be provided to operators to improve their situational awareness in the context of safety.

Real-time Safety Monitoring↗

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage (FOD) Events

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Turso, James↗