The 2022 Eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano: Explosion Precursors and Post-Eruptive Earthquake Swarm
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Prejean, Stephanie↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “eruptions”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands
Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. In this work, we observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island's surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 10 6 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea
Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn- and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn-eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
The Hunga Volcanic Eruption Atmospheric Impacts Report
On 15 January 2022 a highly explosive eruption of the Hunga volcano occurred in the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean (175°24’ W, 20°33’ S). The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 eruption originated from a shallow submarine vent, making it distinct from large subaerial eruptions of recent decades (e.g., 1982 El Chichón, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo). In particular, seawater enhanced explosivity and dampened sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. The eruption was the culmination of ~1 month of precursory activity; however, the timing and size of the eruption were unexpected, partly due to the challenges of monitoring submarine volcanoes. The stratospheric hydration caused by the eruption was unprecedented in magnitude, altitude, and duration in the satellite record. This Executive Summary reflects the current assessment of the Hunga eruption and its impact on the climate system. We report key observations of the eruption and its aftermath, as well as simulations of its impact by global chemistry-climate models. The Hunga eruption had an unprecedented impact on the stratosphere and mesosphere due to the plume height and large water content, which increased the global stratospheric water vapour burden by 10%. Most of this water has remained in the atmosphere into 2025. However, Hunga’s net impact on surface climate was small compared to that of earlier large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, due to limited sulfate aerosol loading in the stratosphere and the high altitude of the water vapour injection.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Isolated vesicles in submarine pumice: insights from the 2019 Volcano F eruption, Kingdom of Tonga
No reliable method can distinguish between subaerial and submarine pumice, but recent work shows that highly vesicular (total porosity, φ > 65%) submarine pumice from the 2012 Havre and 2021 Fukutoku Oka-no-Ba eruptions contains abundant isolated porosity (connectivity, C < 0.6). This differs from textural measurements of subaerial pumice with similarly high vesicularities, where high connectivities (C > 0.8) are often measured. To investigate the implications of this under-studied texture for bubble nucleation, growth, and coalescence dynamics at submarine eruptions, we analyze the textural characteristics of rafted pumice clasts from the 2019 submarine eruption of Volcano F, located along the Tonga-Kermadec Arc. We examined clasts collected while floating near the vent (50–200 km) and distally on the shores of Fiji (900 km). Using helium pycnometry and X-ray tomography (XRT), we quantified porosity and connectivity in 45 pumice lapilli, classifying them by vesicle macrotexture and edge morphology. Microvesicular clasts, the majority of which have breadcrust and cauliflower textures, exhibit the lowest connectivities (C = 0.61 ± 0.2), while macrovesicular clasts have high connectivities with C ~ 1. We propose that isolated porosity abundance varies according to clast location in the eruption column post-fragmentation. Microvesicular clasts erupted on the edges of the column and experienced high levels of seawater ingestion and subsequent quenching of the entire clast. Macrovesicular clasts, in contrast, erupted in the center of the eruption column and were thus thermally insulated, allowing magmatic bubbles in the molten pumice to nucleate, grow, and coalesce for longer. Our results and interpretation imply that low connectivity, microvesicular clasts preserve pre and syn-eruptive bubble processes at the 2019 Volcano F eruption.
Permeability↗
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis
Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.
Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗
Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection
Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. Here, we propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption’s impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.
Aerosol optical depth↗
High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption
The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
The Potential of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Reduce the Climatic Risks of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions
Sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions happen sporadically. If Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) were to be deployed, it is likely that explosive volcanic eruptions would happen during such a deployment. Here we use an ensemble of Earth System Model simulations to show how changing the injection strategy post-eruption could be used to reduce the climate risks of a large volcanic eruption; the risks are also modified even without any change to the strategy. For a medium-size eruption (10 Tg-SO 2 ) comparable to the SAI injection rate, the volcanic-induced cooling would be reduced if it occurs under SAI, especially if artificial sulfur dioxide injections were immediately suspended. Alternatively, suspending injection only in the eruption hemisphere and continuing injection in the opposite would reduce shifts in precipitation in the tropical belt and thus mitigate eruption-induced drought. Finally, we show that for eruptions much larger than the SAI deployment, changes in SAI strategy would have minimal effect.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Simultaneous creation of a large vapor plume and pumice raft by the 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba shallow submarine eruption
The 12 August 2021 eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba, a shallow submarine volcano in the Izu-Bonin arc of Japan, is one of few documented submarine eruptions to make a large aerial plume and floating pumice raft. Relative to past eruptions, this event was well-covered by multiple high resolution satellite remote sensors, raising the possibility of resolving important questions about the timing of raft and plume formation, and their relationship. Here we use satellite remote sensing to assess the eruption timeline, style, rates, and products. We use the Himawari-8 satellite to assess the plume volume flux and height through time. In addition, we use a combination of ultra-high resolution satellite imagery to assess the timing and mechanisms of raft formation. We find that the 16 km eruption plume was ice-rich and conclude that the 0.1 km3 raft and eruption plume were co-genetic. Finally, we suggest that pumice clasts were delivered to the raft by tephra jets, ballistics, and near-vent fallout from the plume. Together our observations reveal that the fallout of pumice lapilli from a water-rich eruption column generated a large pumice raft.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
How Did Westward Volcaniclastic Deposits Accumulate in the Deep Sea Following the January 2022 Eruption of Hunga Volcano?
Most volcanic eruptions on Earth take place below the ocean surface and remain largely unobserved. Reconstruction of past submerged eruptions has thus primarily been based on the study of seafloor deposits. Rarely before the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano (Kingdom of Tonga) have we been able to categorically link deep-sea deposits to a specific volcanic source. This eruption was the largest in the modern satellite era, producing a 58-km-tall plume, a 20-m high tsunami, and a pressure wave that propagated around the world. The eruption induced the fastest submarine density currents ever measured, which destroyed submarine telecommunication cables and traveled at least 85 km to the west to the neighboring Lau Basin. Here we report findings from a series of remotely operated vehicle dives conducted 4 months after the eruption along the Eastern Lau Spreading Center-Valu Fa Ridge. Hunga-sourced volcaniclastic deposits 7–150 cm in thickness were found at nine sites, and collected. Study of the internal structure, grain size, componentry, glass chemistry, and microfossil assemblages of the cores show that these deposits are the distal portions of at least two ~100-km-runout submarine density currents. We identify distinct physical characteristics of entrained microfossils that demonstrate the dynamics and pathways of the density currents. Microfossil evidence suggests that even the distal parts of the currents were erosive, remobilizing microfossil-concentrated sediments across the Lau Basin. Remobilization by volcaniclastic submarine density currents may thus play a greater role in carbon transport into deep sea basins than previously thought.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Three-dimensional Dynamics of Strongly Twisted Magnetar Magnetospheres: Kinking Flux Tubes and Global Eruptions
Abstract The origins of the various outbursts of hard X-rays from magnetars (highly magnetized neutron stars) are still unknown. We identify instabilities in relativistic magnetospheres that can explain a range of X-ray flare luminosities. Crustal surface motions can twist the magnetar magnetosphere by shifting the frozen-in footpoints of magnetic field lines in current-carrying flux bundles. Axisymmetric (2D) magnetospheres exhibit strong eruptive dynamics, i.e., catastrophic lateral instabilities triggered by a critical footpoint displacement of ψ crit ≳ π . In contrast, our new three-dimensional (3D) twist models with finite surface extension capture important non-axisymmetric dynamics of twisted force-free flux bundles in dipolar magnetospheres. Besides the well-established global eruption resulting (as in 2D) from lateral instabilities, such 3D structures can develop helical, kink-like dynamics, and dissipate energy locally (confined eruptions). Up to 25% of the induced twist energy is dissipated and available to power X-ray flares in powerful global eruptions, with most of our models showing an energy release in the range of the most common X-ray outbursts, ≲10 43 erg. Such events occur when significant energy builds up while deeply buried in the dipole magnetosphere. Less energetic outbursts likely precede powerful flares, due to intermittent instabilities and confined eruptions of a continuously twisting flux tube. Upon reaching a critical state, global eruptions produce the necessary Poynting-flux-dominated outflows required by models prescribing the fast radio burst production in the magnetar wind—for example, via relativistic magnetic reconnection or shocks.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption
Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.
Geosciences↗
Distortion of a Relativistic Jet Echoing a Magnetic Flux Eruption
Magnetized accretion onto spinning black holes (BHs) can accumulate a large magnetic flux across the event horizon and launch a pair of relativistic jets via the Blandford–Znajek mechanism. In the magnetically saturated (arrested) state, excess magnetic flux is ejected from the BH in episodic magnetic flux eruptions, which result in a significant yet temporary reduction of jet power. We analyze results of a high-resolution 3D general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulation of geometrically thick magnetically saturated accretion onto a high-spin Kerr BH for a single cycle of magnetic flux eruption and accumulation. We show that following an eruption, a weakened jet develops a strong helical distortion with a distinct structure of magnetic fields—the poloidal field along the jet core is unaffected by the eruption; while toroidal field lines, ejected from the BH during the eruption and later readvected onto it, form poloidal “bypasses” along the inner jet sheath. Such a distortion may appear in sources fed by geometrically thick accretion flows as an asymmetric superluminal knot, strongly interacting with the jet sheath along an oblique working surface. The jet section repowered by magnetic flux reaccumulated on the BH is tilted by a few degrees, implying significant variations in radiation boost towards observers of BL Lac blazars. The intrinsic structure of the jet spine is consistent with axisymmetric semi-analytical models.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption
The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.
Dynamic Linear Model↗
Responses of the AC/DC Global Electric Circuit to Volcanic Electrical Activity in the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption on 15 January 2022
Responses of the AC and DC global electric circuits (GECs) to the large eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HT-HH) volcano on 15 January 2022 are discussed. The AC-related investigation is based on Schumann resonance (SR) measurements from six stations on four continents. The DC-related investigation utilizes atmospheric electric field (potential gradient, PG) measurements from six recording stations in Europe and the USA. According to data from the GLD360 and WWLLN lightning detection networks, the peak lightning stroke rate, 83/s, was dominated by negative polarity lightning, but the distributions of positive and negative lightning discharges in latitude and longitude around the volcano differed. A global intensification of SR is apparent in connection with the enhanced lightning activity caused by the eruption. SR data-based results confirm that the lightning activity in the eruption dominated the naturally occurring global activity for a period of about 1 hr. The highly localized increase in lightning activity over HT-HH was a unique point source of SR excitation. PG measurements suggest that impulse-like charging of the DC GEC, by ~15%, via negative cloud-to-ground lightning strokes took place twice during the eruption. A time constant of 7 or 8 min has been inferred for near-surface PG changes due to these enhancements. This could be the first direct measurement of the time constant of the GEC near the Earth's surface, as well as the first observation of the direct charging of the DC GEC by a unique atmospheric electrified source.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Discriminating Types of Volcanic Electrical Activity: Toward an Eruption Detection Algorithm
Abstract We present a method for classification of the two distinct types of electrical activity that occur during an explosive volcanic eruption: vent discharges and lightning. Vent discharges occur at the onset of an explosion and create a distinctive radio frequency signature called continual radio frequency. Seconds to minutes after the onset of the eruption, lightning begins to occur throughout the eruption column. We use logistic regression to classify a radio frequency impulse as being part of either a lightning flash or a period of continual radio frequency. The classifier uses the number of peaks in the amplitude envelope from 1 ms windows before and after the impulsive very high frequency waveform, with an average accuracy of 97.9%. We propose that this method could be used in an algorithm to determine when explosive eruptions occurred by identification of the distinctive signatures of vent discharges and lightning.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Mesospheric temperature and circulation response to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcanic eruption
The Hunga Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 injected water vapor and SO 2 into the stratosphere. Several months after the eruption, significantly stronger westerlies, and a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation developed in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere and were accompanied by unprecedented temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In August 2022, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument observed record-breaking temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere that alternate signs with altitude. Ensemble simulations carried out with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) indicate that the strengthening of the stratospheric westerlies explains the mesospheric temperature changes. The stronger westerlies cause stronger westward gravity wave drag in the mesosphere. Although the enhanced gravity wave drag is partly balanced by a weakening of planetary wave forcing, the net result is an acceleration of the mesospheric mean meridional circulation. The stronger mesospheric circulation, in turn, plays a dominant role in driving the changes in mesospheric temperatures. This study highlights the impact of large volcanic eruptions on middle atmospheric dynamics and provides insight into their long-term effects in the mesosphere. On the other hand, we could not discern a clear mechanism for the observed changes in stratospheric circulation. In fact, an examination of the WACCM ensemble reveals that not every member reproduces the large changes observed by SABER. We conclude that there is a stochastic component to the stratospheric response to the HTHH eruption.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗