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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1975

Error analysis of penetrator impacts on bodies without atmospheres

Penetrators are missile shaped objects designed to implant electronic instrumentation in various of surface materials with a nominal impact speed around 150 m/sec. An interest in the application of this concept to in situ subsurface studies of extra terrestrial bodies and planetary satellites exists. Since many of these objects do not have atmospheres, the feasibility of successfully guiding penetrators to the required near-zero angle-of-attack impact conditions in the absence of an atmosphere was analyzed. Two potential targets were included, i.e., the moon and Mercury and several different penetrator deployment modes were involved. Impact errors arising from open-loop and closed-loop deployment control systems were given particular attention. Successful penetrator implacement requires: (1) that the impact speed be controlled, nominally to 150 m/sec, (2) that the angle of attack be in range 0 deg - 11 deg at impact, and (3) that the impact flight path angle be with 15 deg of vertical.

Davis, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Analysis of Impact of RTC Errors on CTOP Performance

Adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by a lack of willingness of a majority of airlines to participate in CTOP as there is significant cost in changing workflows and upgrading technology. No commercial vendors are currently offering TOS generation capability. Simpler, cheaper TOS generators may have more errors in RTC specification as compared to sophisticated TOS generators. This study investigates the impact of RTC errors on CTOP performance.

CTOP↗
NASA NTRS1983

Analysis of the impact of error detection on computer performance

Conventionally, reliability analyses either assume that a fault/error is detected immediately following its occurrence, or neglect damages caused by latent errors. Though unrealistic, this assumption was imposed in order to avoid the difficulty of determining the respective probabilities that a fault induces an error and the error is then detected in a random amount of time after its occurrence. As a remedy for this problem a model is proposed to analyze the impact of error detection on computer performance under moderate assumptions. Error latency, the time interval between occurrence and the moment of detection, is used to measure the effectiveness of a detection mechanism. This model is used to: (1) predict the probability of producing an unreliable result, and (2) estimate the loss of computation due to fault and/or error.

Shin, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The role of analysis error in the convergence of reanalysis production streams in MERRA-2

Due to production time constraints, most reanalyses are produced in multiple parallel streams instead of a single continuous one. These streams cover separate segments of the reanalysis time period with short overlaps to allow reconstruction of the official record. A fundamental assumption justifying this approach is that the streams will be assimilating the same observations during the periods where they overlap, and so will eventually converge to a similar atmospheric state, making discontinuities at stream junctions negligible. This assumption is revisited in this work by examining the impact of analysis error on the differences between MERRA-2 overlapping streams in three historical periods. Comparison results are shown in terms of standard deviations of stream differences as well as the spectral decomposition of the variance of their differences. Residual differences were found at the end of each year of overlap, with larger values observed in the earlier segments of the presatellite era. By drawing parallels with analysis error statistics estimated from the GMAO OSSE system, these differences are shown to reflect the varying constraint of data with the varying observing network, and to further carry the imprint of errors that the data assimilation process is not able to mitigate. As such, they are unlikely to be reduced by longer spinup periods. The ability of data assimilation to ensure continuity in the parallel streams is put into question when the observing system coverage is inadequate or simply when the data assimilation system as a whole is suboptimal.

Amal El Akkraoui↗
NASA NTRS2023

Robustness of Observing System Simulation Experiments

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to investigate the potential performance of proposed new instruments on numerical weather prediction (NWP). As OSSEs involve a framework in which the atmosphere and observations are all completely simulated, it is necessary to perform validation of the OSSE to ensure that it is sufficiently realistic to provide useful experimental results. A common issue that affects the forecast skill and observation impacts is the tendency of OSSEs to have insufficient model error compared to NWP in the real world. In this work, two versions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) NWP OSSE framework are compared, with the newer framework having more simulated forecast model error than the older framework due to changes to the NWP system. The performance of the updated OSSE is validated against corresponding behavior of the same NWP system in the real world in terms of the simulated observations, the analysis increments, forecast error, and observation impacts. OSSE results of analysis and forecast impacts for three proposed new observation systems are also compared between the older and newer frameworks to evaluate the robustness of the OSSE experiments and the role of model error in observation impacts. These three new instruments are the Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) hyperspectral infrared sounder (GXS), the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds) atmospheric motion vectors, and additional Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultations (GNSS-RO).

Observing System Simulation Experiments↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of adjoint-based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short-term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short-term forecast error is difficult due to the lack of a truly independent dataset for verification. In an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework, the Nature Run is able to provide a true and complete verification dataset and allows accurate evaluation of short term forecast errors. In this work, an OSSE developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to explore the impact of observational data on forecasts in the 6 to 48 hour range. An adjoint of the Global Earth Observing System model is employed to compare the observation impacts estimated using both self-analysis verification and the true Nature Run verification. Self-analysis verification is found to inflate the estimated forecast error growth during the early forecast period, resulting in overestimations of observation impacts, particularly in the 6-12 hour forecast range. By 48 hours, the self-analysis verification estimates of forecast error and observation impacts more closely match the true values. The fraction of beneficial observations is also overinflated at short forecast times when self-analysis verification is used. The progression of impacts of an individual observation or data type depends on the character of the growth of the initial condition error that each observation affects.

numerical weather prediction↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Influence of Observation Errors on Analysis Error and Forecast Skill Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework is used to explore the response of analysis error and forecast skill to observation quality. In an OSSE, synthetic observations may be created that have much smaller error than real observations, and precisely quantified error may be applied to these synthetic observations. Three experiments are performed in which synthetic observations with magnitudes of applied observation error that vary from zero to twice the estimated realistic error are ingested into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation for a one-month period representing July. The analysis increment and observation innovation are strongly impacted by observation error, with much larger variances for increased observation error. The analysis quality is degraded by increased observation error, but the change in root-mean-square error of the analysis state is small relative to the total analysis error. Surprisingly, in the 120 hour forecast increased observation error only yields a slight decline in forecast skill in the extratropics, and no discernable degradation of forecast skill in the tropics.

Observation Error↗
NASA NTRS2018

Unstructured Grid Adaptation and Solver Technology for Turbulent Flows

Unstructured grid adaptation is a tool to control Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) discretization error. However, adaptive grid techniques have made limited impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Issues that prevent the use of adaptive grid methods are identified by applying unstructured grid adaptation methods to a series of benchmark cases. Once identified, these challenges to existing adaptive workflows can be addressed. Unstructured grid adaptation is evaluated for test cases described on the Turbulence Modeling Resource (TMR) web site, which documents uniform grid refinement of multiple schemes. The cases are turbulent flow over a Hemisphere Cylinder and an ONERA M6Wing. Adaptive grid force and moment trajectories are shown for three integrated grid adaptation processes with Mach interpolation control and output error based metrics. The integrated grid adaptation process with a finite element (FE) discretization produced results consistent with uniform grid refinement of fixed grids. The integrated grid adaptation processes with finite volume schemes were slower to converge to the reference solution than the FE method. Metric conformity is documented on grid/metric snapshots for five grid adaptation mechanics implementations. These tools produce anisotropic boundary conforming grids requested by the adaptation process.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Model Error↗
NASA NTRS2019

Geometry Modeling for Unstructured Mesh Adaptation

The quantification and control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Adaptive mesh techniques have the potential to automate discretization error control, but have made limited impact on production analysis workflow. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics. However, the poor integration of initial mesh generation and adaptive mesh mechanics to typical sources of geometry has hindered adoption of adaptive mesh techniques, where these geometries are often created in Mechanical Computer- Aided Design (MCAD) systems. The difficulty of this coupling is compounded by two factors: the inherent complexity of the model (e.g., large range of scales, bodies in proximity, details not required for analysis) and unintended geometry construction artifacts (e.g., translation, uneven parameterization, degeneracy, self-intersection, sliver faces, gaps, large tolerances be- tween topological elements, local high curvature to enforce continuity). Manual preparation of geometry is commonly employed to enable fixed-grid and adaptive-grid workflows by reducing the severity and negative impacts of these construction artifacts, but manual process interaction inhibits workflow automation. Techniques to permit the use of complex geometry models and reduce the impact of geometry construction artifacts on unstructured grid workflows are models from the AIAA Sonic Boom and High Lift Prediction are shown to demonstrate the utility of the current approach.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

FOCUS - An experimental environment for fault sensitivity analysis

FOCUS, a simulation environment for conducting fault-sensitivity analysis of chip-level designs, is described. The environment can be used to evaluate alternative design tactics at an early design stage. A range of user specified faults is automatically injected at runtime, and their propagation to the chip I/O pins is measured through the gate and higher levels. A number of techniques for fault-sensitivity analysis are proposed and implemented in the FOCUS environment. These include transient impact assessment on latch, pin and functional errors, external pin error distribution due to in-chip transients, charge-level sensitivity analysis, and error propagation models to depict the dynamic behavior of latch errors. A case study of the impact of transient faults on a microprocessor-based jet-engine controller is used to identify the critical fault propagation paths, the module most sensitive to fault propagation, and the module with the highest potential for causing external errors.

Choi, Gwan S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Estimation of errors in the TOMS total ozone measurement during the Antarctica ozone campaign of August/September 1987

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument on the Nimbus-7 satellite provides the primary source of total ozone data for the study of total ozone in the polar regions of the earth. There are two types of instrument related errors: a slowly developing drift in the instrument calibration since the launch of the instrument in October 1978 and an increase in the measurement noise beginning April, 1984. It is estimated that by October 1987, the accumulated error in the TOMS total ozone measurement due to instrument drift is about 6 m-atm-cm. The sign of the error is such that the TOMS is slightly overpredicting the long-term decrease of the Antarctica ozone. The increase in the measurement noise is more difficult to quantify, affecting some measurements by as much as 10 D.U. and others not at all. A detailed analysis of this error and its potential impact on the studies of total ozone from TOMS will be provided. There are three categories of algorithmic errors: (1) error due the unusual shape of the ozone profile in the ozone hole; (2) error caused by very low atmospheric temperatures in the ozone hole affecting the ozone absorption cross-sections at the TOMS wavelengths; and (3) errors resulting from occasionally thick stratospheric clouds that sometimes reach to 20 km in the ozone hole.

Bhartia, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Error Modeling of Multibaseline Optical Truss: Part 1: Modeling of System Level Performance

Global astrometry is the measurement of stellar positions and motions. These are typically characterized by five parameters, including two position parameters, two proper motion parameters, and parallax. The Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) will derive these parameters for a grid of approximately 1300 stars covering the celestial sphere to an accuracy of approximately 4uas, representing a two orders of magnitude improvement over the most precise current star catalogues. Narrow angle astrometry will be performed to a 1uas accuracy. A wealth of scientific information will be obtained from these accurate measurements encompassing many aspects of both galactic (and extragalactic science. SIM will be subject to a number of instrument errors that can potentially degrade performance. Many of these errors are systematic in that they are relatively static and repeatable with respect to the time frame and direction of the observation. This paper and its companion define the modeling of the, contributing factors to these errors and the analysis of how they impact SIM's ability to perform astrometric science.

meterology modeling↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improvement of the TOPEX and Jason Orbit Time Series: Precision Orbit Determination, Calibration, Validation and Improvement Through the Combined Reduction and Analysis of GPS, SLR, DORIS and Altimeter Data

Orbit error is a major component in the overall error budget of all altimeter satellite missions. Jason-I is no exception and a 1 cm radial orbit accuracy goal has been set, which represents a factor of two improvement over what is currently being achieved for TOPEX/Poseidon (TP). Our current analysis suggests this goal has been met and even improved upon, but the challenge is to be able to continually achieve this high accuracy, verify the performance and characterize and quantify the remaining errors over the lifetime of the mission. The computation, verification and error characterization of such high accuracy orbits requires the reduction and analysis of all available tracking data (GPS, SLR, DORIS and altimeter). Current analysis also indicates the history of TP orbits can be further improved employing new solution strategies developed and tested on Jason-I. Our research focuses on the calibration, validation and improvement of orbit accuracies using all available tracking data including altimetry. We will compute and distribute well centered Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm in the radial component. In addition to the orbits themselves, a characterization of the orbit error will be distributed and accumulated as a time series of orbit performance metrics to track anomalies and trends. The long time series of orbit error characterization will enable a better understanding of the remaining orbit errors and its impact on the altimeter data analysis. As part of this research effort we are also significantly improving the current level of TP orbit accuracy, re-computing new high-accuracy TP orbits from the beginning of the TP mission and continuing into the future (as long as TP is healthy). Our funded research effort will result in a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits for both TP and Jason, significantly benefiting the long time series of altimeter data analysis and the TP/Jason dual mission. The resultant high accuracy orbits and the characterization of their error will allow further improvements to the accuracy and overall quality of the altimeter measurement time series making possible further strides in radar altimeter remote sensing.

Luthcke, Scott B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I-derived Precipitation and Moisture Data on the GEOS Global Analysis

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of space-based rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) estimates to constrain these hydrological parameters in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. We present results showing that assimilating the 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also reduce state-dependent systematic errors in key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts beyond 1 day, but the impact is relatively modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged analysis. The study shows that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, improving the short-range forecast is not necessarily prerequisite for improving the assimilation as a climate data set. The full impact of a given type of observation on the assimilated data set should not be measured solely in terms of forecast skills.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

human error↗
NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps/incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

human error↗