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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for "Verification of the kinetic electron role in the microinstabilities in a negative triangularity model equilibrium"

This contains the dataset used in "Verification of the kinetic electron role in the microinstabilities in a negative triangularity model equilibrium" published in Physics of Plasmas in Oct 2024. It consists of plaintext files as well as .bp files (which may be read by ADIOS open-source software) used for creating the plots that appear in the paper. These are derived from simulation outputs from XGC (X-point Gyrokinetic Code). The data mainly consists of growth rate and frequency measurements as well as poloidal cross-section data.

gyrokinetic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward Enhancing Wastewater Treatment with Resource Recovery in Integrated Assessment and Computable General Equilibrium Models

Sustainable water management is essential to increasing water availability and decreasing water pollution. The wastewater sector is expanding globally and beginning to incorporate technologies that recover nutrients from wastewater. Nutrient recovery increases energy consumption but may reduce the demand for nutrients from virgin sources. We estimate the increase in annual global energy consumption (1,100 million GJ) and greenhouse gas emissions (84 million t CO2e) for wastewater treatment in the year 2030 compared to today’s levels to meet sustainable development goals. To capture these trends, integrated assessment and computable general equilibrium models that address the energy-water nexus must evolve. We reviewed 16 of these models to assess how well they capture wastewater treatment plant energy consumption and GHG emissions. Only three models include biogas production from the wastewater organic content. Four explicitly represent energy demand for wastewater treatment, and eight include explicit representation of wastewater treatment plant greenhouse gas emissions. Of those eight models, six models quantify methane emissions from treatment, five include representation of emissions of nitrous oxide, and two include representation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Our review concludes with proposals to improve these models to better capture the energy-water nexus associated with the evolving wastewater treatment sector.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward an improved nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model for more predictive simulations of ignition scale hohlraums

Recently, nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modeling has been identified as the primary reason for discrepant predictions of the peak neutron production time in indirectly driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) platforms. It has also been observed that predictions of collisional excitation rates differ by as much as 50% from measurements. Theoretical uncertainties in dielectronic recombination rates have also been posited as possibly contributing to errors in NLTE predictions. This work examines the impact of multipliers on collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates on simulations of a directly driven gold sphere and an indirect drive ICF implosion. It is found that multipliers on the collisional excitation rates have a strong impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature and a weaker impact on ionization state, whereas multipliers on dielectronic recombinations rates strongly impact ionization state with a smaller impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature. A self-consistent NLTE model which places multipliers on differing transitions, as motivated by experimental measurements and more detailed atomic physics predictions, improves agreement but does not completely eliminate discrepancies with measurements of the radiant intensity within the 2–4 keV spectral range.

Farmer, W. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2020

Land Use in Computable General Equilibrium Models

Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functions are widely used to allocate land across uses in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. These models fail to maintain area of land in balance. Several ways have been used or offered to fix this problem. This paper first examines the extent to which the CET approach may generate imbalances in area of land and identifies determinants of such imbalances. It then evaluates the merits, properties, and welfare impacts of the available approaches that restore area of land in balance. We show that heterogeneity in land prices (land rents) is the main source of imbalance in area of land, not the curvature of the CET function. Furthermore, we show that the available approaches that restore area of land in balance either introduce ad hoc adjustments in land allocation or undermine the conventional welfare assessments of the CET results and ignore the opportunity costs of land transformation. The CGE models which applied stochastic productivity distribution functions to allocate land among uses maintain area of land in balance, but they suffer from important limitations and ignore costs of land transformation.

Taheripour, Farzad↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verification of the kinetic electron role in the microinstabilities in a negative triangularity model equilibrium

Effect of kinetic electrons on negative triangularity plasmas has been investigated and compared against the corresponding positive triangularity plasmas, using the global gyrokinetic code X-point Gyrokinetic Code with scale-separated delta-f option without Coulomb collisions. Our model magnetic equilibria have strong positive and negative triangularities and weak magnetic shear. However, unusually large ρ i > a and low density plasmas are chosen to maximize the nonlocal effect to investigate the finite ρ i effect and to be clearly away from kinetic ballooning modes. Similar conclusions to previous flux tube and global simulations have been obtained in this highly nonlocal model plasma: it is essential to include kinetic electrons in the micro-instability study of negative triangularity plasmas. Most physics findings agree with existing reports, with some disagreement. We offer a new “effective trapping fraction” concept that can add to the explanation of the growth rate difference between NT and PT plasmas, pointing to the significant variation in trapped particle fractions that have turning points in the mode growth regions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Downstream Separation of Formic Acid with Anion-Exchange Resin from Electrocatalytic Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Conversion: Adsorption, Kinetics, and Equilibrium Modeling

The electrocatalytic carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) that produces liquid formic acid (FA) is one potential route to minimize the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere by utilizing CO 2 as a feedstock. However, one of the main disadvantages of this route is the high energy demand required for purification through conventional distillation. This method of purification has been shown to result in a large carbon footprint in life-cycle analysis (LCA). Therefore, finding an alternative purification technique that can integrate with an electrochemical CO 2 RR process with the potential to lower the carbon footprint would be of great interest. Under the experimental conditions of the CO 2 RR, FA remains in its basic form as the formate anion in the catholyte. Anion exchange resins with their basic properties can separate the formate anion from the catholyte mixture as an alternative to energy intensive distillation. In this work, three anion exchange resins with increasing basicity order: Amberlite IRA-96 < Amberlite IRA-910 < Ambersep 900 are tested to separate FA in the presence of aqueous solution of potassium bicarbonate catholyte with varying levels of resin and FA. Kinetics and equilibrium studies data for the FA adsorption are interpreted using several kinetics and isotherm models. The kinetics data fit well with a pseudo-first-order model at high initial FA concentrations and a pseudo-second-order model at low initial FA concentrations. The experimental data can be best explained with the Freundlich isotherm model. The fitted results show that strongly basic Ambersep 900 is more effective at separating FA, with a maximum adsorption capacity of 336.7 mg/g compared to Amberlite IRA-96 (275.2 mg/g) and Amberlite IRA-910 (209.2 mg/g) in neutral water. However, weakly basic Amberlite IRA-96 (110.8 mg/g) can separate FA more efficiently from potassium bicarbonate catholyte than Amberlite IRA-910 (99.9 mg/g) and Ambersep 900 (40.0 mg/g). As a result, competitive adsorption occurs in the presence of potassium bicarbonate catholyte, but the formic acid adsorption capacity is still sufficient for adequate separation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Equilibrium Solid–Liquid Interfaces under Effective Constant Chemical Potential Using Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

The chemical potential (μ) of species in solution is essential for understanding various chemical processes at interfaces. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, constrained by fixed compositions, cannot maintain constant chemical potential with reference to a targeted concentration or chemical potential under nonequilibrium or dynamic conditions, as solute species can migrate to the interface and deplete (or enrich) the bulk due to solute-interface interactions. In this study, we introduce a simple and computationally efficient approach named iterative quasi-constant chemical potential molecular dynamics (iqCμMD) simulation, which helps simulate targeted molar concentrations of species in solution. iqCμMD overcomes the limitations of conventional MD by adjusting the number of species in the solution to reach a target bulk concentration (chemical potential), which allows simulation of the interface under the bulk conditions comparable to experiment. We demonstrate our approach using machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP)-based MD simulations of the Na 2 SO 4,aq –graphene interface, and to show the transferability of our approach, we also perform classical force field-based MD simulations of NaCl aq –air and NaCl aq –graphite interfaces, which produce comparable results to previous CμMD simulations. Our results also show that the iqCμMD approach efficiently achieves the desired bulk ion concentration within two iterations, and by utilizing MLIPs, we can achieve converged results using relatively small-scale simulations compared to previous CμMD simulations. By combining iqCμMD with MLIP-driven simulations, solid–liquid interfaces can be modeled under an effective constant chemical potential with DFT-level accuracy. Here, we show that iqCμMD offers a robust and simple computational framework for constant chemical potential simulations, as its only requirement is to be able to converge interfacial simulations with a measurable bulk region.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal properties and Thermodynamic Equilibrium Modeling of Cementitious Waste Forms

INTRODUCTION Cementitious matrices are used in the US DOE complex and worldwide to solidify aqueous radioactive, hazardous, mixed salt solutions, and sludges to meet low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal requirements. Blended formulations are used for most waste form mix designs. Substitution of pozzolans for Class F fly ash has the potential to alter the processing properties and stabilization properties of the resulting waste forms because they add chemical and mineralogical complexity to the final material. The Savannah River Site saltstone waste form was selected as the test case material. CemGEMS software was chosen as the model for predicting hydrated cementitious phases assemblages and phase evolution. Isothermal calorimetry was used as the method for evaluating processing and properties of fresh, uncured waste forms. The test cases consisted of reference case saltstone, and five natural pozzolan substituted saltstone mixes.

Bustamante, Michael E. [Savannah River National La↗
DOE OSTI2024

Equilibrium core modeling of a pebble bed reactor similar to the Xe-100 with SCALE

As the nuclear industry moves towards licensing and constructing advanced reactors, new attention has been focused on the advanced reactor designs that have past operational experience, such as pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (PB-HTGRs). Pebble-bed reactor designs have many advantages, such as their higher operating temperatures and online refueling capabilities. However, high-fidelity computational modeling of pebble-bed reactor designs, from reactor startup to operation at equilibrium, is more challenging compared to conventionally fueled reactors due to the continuous movement of the fuel pebbles through the reactor during operation. In previous work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the SCALE Leap-In method for Cores at Equilibrium (SLICE) was developed around tools within the SCALE code system. This iterative method can effectively generate pebble-bed reactor zone-wise fuel inventories at equilibrium core operation within a reasonable computational time. The objective of this work was to further verify the ORNL SLICE method and to investigate the impact of considering temperature profiles during the application of the method. The SLICE method was applied to a modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor design based upon publicly available design specifications of the Xe-100 pebble-bed reactor. Upon comparing the results from the SLICE method to published literature, the differences in the eigenvalue k effective were on the order of several hundred pcm (percent millirho). To investigate one possible cause of these differences, a study looking at the sensitivity of the full-core equilibrium k effective and discharge nuclide inventory to temperature was performed by developing equilibrium cores of two additional temperature profiles. From this temperature study, differences on the order of hundreds of pcm for the full-core equilibrium k effective , and up to 15% difference for the discharge inventories were found. In conclusion, these results indicated the strong dependence on temperature that needs to be considered for future work in equilibrium modeling of PB-HTGRs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Thermochemical Platform Analysis WBS: 2.1.0.302

The objective of the NREL Thermochemical Platform Analysis (WBS 2.1.0.302) project is to inform and guide R&D priorities for thermal and catalytic conversion processes by providing process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA). This is achieved through close collaboration with researchers and external experts, along with the use of both commercially available modeling tools and the development or use of collaboration-derived domain-specific tools and resources, such as refinery integration, kinetic and reactor models, phase equilibrium models, and pertinent bio-products market studies. This project is directly aligned with DOE-BETO goals, with the enabling of technology advancements and cost reduction for biomass derived biofuels being one of its primary objectives. TEA-guided research facilitated by this project has helped achieve significant modeled cost reductions for the ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) pathway and the indirect liquefaction (IDL) pathway for the conversion of syngas to high-octane gasoline (HOG). Cost reduction through refinery integration, development of valuable co-products, and other options are being identified for future research to help reduce the modeled MFSP to $2.50/GGE by 2030. Additional priorities anticipated in the future, such as the use of renewable electricity for liquid fuels and products, and emphasis on waste utilization are also being explored in conjunction with research on catalytic utilization of syngas and other gases (including CO2). Industry-relevant parameters are given deliberate attention as part of the work done under this project to help answer questions important for future commercialization and address associated risks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium Core Model for Micro Pebble Bed Reactors Using OpenMC

Estimating the equilibrium state for pebble bed reactors (PBRs) presents complex challenges as it requires simultaneous consideration of changes in the pebbles’ movement as well as their fuel compositions. Whereas traditional approaches use multigroup diffusion codes for neutronics calculations of PBRs’ equilibrium state, the double-heterogeneity of PBRs complicates neutron cross-section generation. Continuous-energy Monte Carlo (MC) methods are better suited for detailed PBR analysis because of their natural handling of double-heterogeneity, but they demand substantially more computational resources. Here, this study introduces a novel method for efficiently estimating the equilibrium state in small and micro PBRs with reduced computational cost. The method is anticipated to accelerate the processes of core design and performing parametric studies for utilizing advanced fuel and structural materials. The HTR-10 reactor design was used for validating the method’s predictions and evaluating its computational efficiency. When compared to reference calculation values from the literature, criticality (k-effective) was predicted to be approximately within the margin of error of the MC transport calculation, average core power density (in megawatts per cubic meter) was predicted within 2.5% relative error, and maximum thermal flux (10 13 n/cm 2 .s −1 ) was predicted within 1.8% relative error. The calculated inventory of fission products and fuel composition in the equilibrium core were within 15% and 16.6%, respectively, when compared to reported values from the literature. The difference is attributed to variance in the considered values of the core temperature, which was found to significantly affect the depletion analyses.

Equilibrium core↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mexico and U.S. Power Systems Under Variations in Natural Gas Prices

This study examines the impact of natural gas prices on the power systems of Mexico and the United States. For this, we develop an integrated modeling framework by soft linking three different techno-economic bottom-up models of the power and energy systems, one partial equilibrium model of the natural gas sector, and a partial equilibrium model of the Mexican energy sector. Our results show several interesting results: high natural gas prices raise the use of carbon-intensive technologies in the short-term and boost renewable investments at longer time intervals, increasing emissions in earlier periods and reducing them thereafter. Regarding system costs, because of more capital-intensive green power and lower expenditures in raw energy carriers, capital costs rise and operating costs decrease in the long haul. Furthermore, we see an increase in natural gas demand when its price is low, reducing long-term capital and operating costs through cheaper energy inputs in natural gas facilities and a lower share of capital-intensive renewable facilities in the power system. Concerning emissions, low natural-gas prices decrease coal use in the United States, reducing anthropogenic emissions until the last stages of the optimization period. For Mexico, they show heterogeneous results across models. Policymakers can use this study's results to understand the influence of natural gas prices in the Mexican and United States energy sectors.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO 2 emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Phase Equilibrium of Common Sugars Glucose, Fructose, and Sucrose in Mixed Solvents

The industrial processing of sugars and sugar-containing mixtures is gaining widespread use as a form of renewable manufacturing from biomass. To aid in process modeling for design and optimization, a commonly available thermodynamic model is needed that describes the phase equilibrium of these compounds. This work compiles and compares models for solid–liquid and vapor–liquid phase equilibrium from the available data for the representative sugars glucose, fructose, and sucrose in the representative solvents water, methanol, and ethanol, including data for multisugar, multisolvent systems. Additionally, the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) model was chosen for these systems because of its widespread use in industry and the availability of parameters for many solvents and cosolutes. The association-NRTL (aNRTL) model was investigated as an improvement for modeling sugars, which may experience a high degree of association because of their many hydroxy groups. Both models accurately capture the data and are able to predict the behavior of multisugar systems with only solute–solvent interaction parameters. The aNRTL model shows an improvement over the baseline NRTL model that is most significant for sucrose, the component with the highest association strength, and least significant for fructose, which has the lowest association strength.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scoping Analysis of Pebble-Bed Reactors for the Destruction of the Transuranic Inventory of LWR Spent Nuclear Fuel

With the forecasted increase in the construction and operation of nuclear reactors, there will be a corresponding increase in the quantity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) that requires long-term storage. In SNF, transuranic isotopes contribute the most to the long-term radiotoxicity of the fuel and pose a proliferation risk. One option that has been explored to address these issues is the removal of the transuranic isotopes from SNF and the conversion of these isotopes into transuranic fuel (TRU fuel). Here, this work sought to determine how effective a micro-modular Pebble-Bed High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (PB-HTGR); the 10-MW High Temperature Gas-cooled Test Reactor (HTR-10); and a salt-cooled small-modular pebble-bed reactor (PBR), i.e. the generic Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Reactor (gFHR), are at reducing the inventory of transuranic isotopes while still maintaining the intrinsic safety features of the PBR designs, such as negative temperature coefficients of reactivity. Optimized pebble designs utilizing TRU fuel were found for both reactors through the adjustment for the packing fraction of fuel in each pebble. The Axial Zone Equilibrium Modeling (A-ZEM) method was used in this work to help select the optimized pebble design. Once an optimized pebble design was selected and an equilibrium model was produced, the results from the deep burn (DB) HTR-10 and gFHR designs were compared to the results of two models from the literature. While both the DB gFHR and the DB HTR-10 were able to reduce the weapons-usable transuranic inventory, the performance of these reactors did not match that of the small-modular PB-HTGRs in the literature. Therefore, a need was identified for further refinement of the gFHR design using TRU fuel, as the results for this model were more promising than those of the DB HTR-10, which was strongly limited by the high leakage intrinsic to micro-modular PB-HTGRs.

Transuranic fuel↗