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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assimilation of AERONET and MODIS AOT Observations Using Variational and Ensemble Data Assimilation Methods and Its Impact on Aerosol Forecasting Skill

Data assimilation of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for aerosol forecasting was tested within the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) framework, using variational and ensemble data assimilation methods. Navy aerosol forecasting currently makes use of a deterministic NAAPS simulation coupled to Navy Variational Data Assimilation System for aerosol optical depth, a two-dimensional variational data assimilation system, for MODIS AOT assimilation. An ensemble version of NAAPS (ENAAPS) coupled to an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed was recently developed, allowing for a range of data assimilation and forecasting experiments to be run with deterministic NAAPS and ENAAPS. The main findings are that the EAKF, with its flow-dependent error covariances, makes better use of sparse observations such as AERONET AOT. Assimilating individual AERONET observations in the two-dimensional variational system can increase the analysis errors when observations are located in high AOT gradient regions. By including AERONET with MODIS AOT assimilation, the magnitudes of peak aerosol events (AOT> 1) were better captured with improved temporal variability, especially in India and Asia where aerosol prediction is a challenge. Assimilating AERONET AOT with MODIS had little impact on the 24 h forecast skill compared to MODIS assimilation only, but differences were found downwind of AERONET sites. The 24 h forecast skill was approximately the same for forecasts initialized with analyses from AERONET AOT assimilation alone compared to MODIS assimilation, particularly in regions where the AERONET network is dense; including the United States and Europe, indicating that AERONET could serve as a backup observation network for over-land synoptic-scale aerosol events.

Rubin, Juli I.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

microwave observations↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions

Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗
DOE OSTI2021

DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Benefits of Handling Mixture Statistics via a Bi-Gaussian EnKF: Tests With All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances

The meteorological characteristics of cloudy atmospheric columns can be very different from their clear counterparts. Thus, when a forecast ensemble is uncertain about the presence/absence of clouds at a specific atmospheric column (i.e., some members are clear while others are cloudy), that column's ensemble statistics will contain a mixture of clear and cloudy statistics. Such mixtures are inconsistent with the ensemble data assimilation algorithms currently used in numerical weather prediction. Hence, ensemble data assimilation algorithms that can handle such mixtures can potentially outperform currently used algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate the potential benefits of addressing such mixtures through a bi-Gaussian extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (BGEnKF). The BGEnKF is compared against the commonly used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using perfect model observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) with a realistic weather model (the Weather Research and Forecast model). Synthetic all-sky infrared radiance observations are assimilated in this study. In these OSSEs, the BGEnKF outperforms the EnKF in terms of the horizontal wind components, temperature, specific humidity, and simulated upper tropospheric water vapor channel infrared brightness temperatures. This study is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of a Gaussian mixture model EnKF with a realistic weather model. Our results thus motivate future research toward improving numerical Earth system predictions though explicitly handling mixture statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Considerations for Using Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation in NASA-GMAO's Next Reanalysis System

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest reanalysis produced by GMAO, and provides global data spanning the period 1980-present. The atmospheric data assimilation component of MERRA-2 used a 3D-Var scheme, which was operational at the time of its design. Since then, a Hybrid 3D-Var, then a Hybrid 4D-EnVar were implemented, adding an ensemble component to the data assimilation scheme. In this work, we will be examining the benefits of using hybrid ensemble flow-dependent covariances to represent errors and uncertainties in historic periods. Specifically, periods of pre- and post-satellites, as well as periods of active tropical cyclone seasons. Finally, we will also be exploring the use of adaptive localization scales.

MERRA-↗
NASA NTRS2014

Hybrid Data Assimilation without Ensemble Filtering

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is preparing to upgrade its three-dimensional variational system to a hybrid approach in which the ensemble is generated using a square-root ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the variational problem is solved using the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system. As in most EnKF applications, we found it necessary to employ a combination of multiplicative and additive inflations, to compensate for sampling and modeling errors, respectively and, to maintain the small-member ensemble solution close to the variational solution; we also found it necessary to re-center the members of the ensemble about the variational analysis. During tuning of the filter we have found re-centering and additive inflation to play a considerably larger role than expected, particularly in a dual-resolution context when the variational analysis is ran at larger resolution than the ensemble. This led us to consider a hybrid strategy in which the members of the ensemble are generated by simply converting the variational analysis to the resolution of the ensemble and applying additive inflation, thus bypassing the EnKF. Comparisons of this, so-called, filter-free hybrid procedure with an EnKF-based hybrid procedure and a control non-hybrid, traditional, scheme show both hybrid strategies to provide equally significant improvement over the control; more interestingly, the filter-free procedure was found to give qualitatively similar results to the EnKF-based procedure.

Kalman Filter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2018

The GMAO Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System: Version 2.0

This document describes the implementation and usage of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (Hybrid EVADAS). Its aim is to provide comprehensive guidance to users of GEOS ADAS interested in experimenting with its hybrid functionalities. The document is also aimed at providing a short summary of the state-of-science in this release of the hybrid system. As explained here, the ensemble data assimilation system (EnADAS) mechanism added to GEOS ADAS to enable hybrid data assimilation applications has been introduced to the pre-existing machinery of GEOS in the most non-intrusive possible way. Only very minor changes have been made to the original scripts controlling GEOS ADAS with the objective of facilitating its usage by both researchers and the GMAO's near-real-time Forward Processing applications. In a hybrid scenario two data assimilation systems run concurrently in a two-way feedback mode such that: the ensemble provides background ensemble perturbations required by the ADAS deterministic (typically high resolution) hybrid analysis; and the deterministic ADAS provides analysis information for recentering of the EnADAS analyses and information necessary to ensure that observation bias correction procedures are consistent between both the deterministic ADAS and the EnADAS. The nonintrusive approach to introducing hybrid capability to GEOS ADAS means, in particular, that previously existing features continue to be available. Thus, not only is this upgraded version of GEOS ADAS capable of supporting new applications such as Hybrid 3D-Var, 3D-EnVar, 4D-EnVar and Hybrid 4D-EnVar, it remains possible to use GEOS ADAS in its traditional 3D-Var mode which has been used in both MERRA and MERRA-2. Furthermore, as described in this document, GEOS ADAS also supports a configuration for exercising a purely ensemble-based assimilation strategy which can be fully decoupled from its variational component. We should point out that Release 1.0 of this document was made available to GMAO in mid-2013, when we introduced Hybrid 3D-Var capability to GEOS ADAS. This initial version of the documentation included a considerably different state-of-science introductory section but many of the same detailed description of the mechanisms of GEOS EnADAS. We are glad to report that a few of the desirable Future Works listed in Release 1.0 have now been added to the present version of GEOS EnADAS. These include the ability to exercise an Ensemble Prediction System that uses the ensemble analyses of GEOS EnADAS and (a very early, but functional version of) a tool to support Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity and Observation Impact applications.

Todling, Ricardo↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Impact of Assimilating Precipitation-affected Radiance on Cloud and Precipitation in Goddard WRF-EDAS Analyses

High-frequency TMI and AMSR-E radiances, which are sensitive to precipitation over land, are assimilated into the Goddard Weather Research and Forecasting Model- Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRF-EDAS) for a few heavy rain events over the continental US. Independent observations from surface rainfall, satellite IR brightness temperatures, as well as ground-radar reflectivity profiles are used to evaluate the impact of assimilating rain-sensitive radiances on cloud and precipitation within WRF-EDAS. The evaluations go beyond comparisons of forecast skills and domain-mean statistics, and focus on studying the cloud and precipitation features in the jointed rainradiance and rain-cloud space, with particular attentions on vertical distributions of height-dependent cloud types and collective effect of cloud hydrometers. Such a methodology is very helpful to understand limitations and sources of errors in rainaffected radiance assimilations. It is found that the assimilation of rain-sensitive radiances can reduce the mismatch between model analyses and observations by reasonably enhancing/reducing convective intensity over areas where the observation indicates precipitation, and suppressing convection over areas where the model forecast indicates rain but the observation does not. It is also noted that instead of generating sufficient low-level warmrain clouds as in observations, the model analysis tends to produce many spurious upperlevel clouds containing small amount of ice water content. This discrepancy is associated with insufficient information in ice-water-sensitive radiances to address the vertical distribution of clouds with small amount of ice water content. Such a problem will likely be mitigated when multi-channel multi-frequency radiances/reflectivity are assimilated over land along with sufficiently accurate surface emissivity information to better constrain the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometers.

WRF-EDAS Analyses↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Satellite Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Applied to the NASA GEOS Earth System Model

The NASA GEOS-S2S-2 system (Molod et al., 2020) uses the SST relaxation with the Level-4 SST products while the latest GEOS GEOS-S2S-3 system directly assimilates the Level-4 SST in the data assimilation step, yet no study has been conducted to understand the impact of this switch on the GEOS coupled analysis and short-range forecast. In addition, the GEOS-S2S-2/3 systems use the ocean model MOM5. Recently, the ocean model MOM6 is added to the GEOS ESM. This poster presents results of the first coupling of the ensemble data assimilation system to the GEOS MOM6.

Cheng Da↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗