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DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves and Energy Prices

Wildfire seasons in the Western U.S. become more prolonged and intense in recent years bringing significant variability and uncertainty of solar generation. It greatly challenges the bulk power system and electricity market operation managed by California Independent System Operator (CAISO) as California leads both the wildfire records and the solar power integration. This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impact of wildfires on solar generation, operating reserve and energy prices applying historical real-world wildfire and market operation data. To the best of the authors knowledge, it is a first-of-its-kind study and will lay the foundation for market impact quantification and wildfire mitigation strategies design based on projected wildfire activities in future years.

electricity price↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dispatch optimization of a concentrating solar power system under uncertain solar irradiance and energy prices

The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Wholesale Energy Price Trends: The Renewables and Wholesale Electricity Prices (ReWEP) tool (Ver. 2024.1)

The Renewables and Wholesale Electricity Prices (ReWEP) visualization tool from Berkeley Lab has been updated with nodal electricity pricing and wind and solar generation data through the end of 2023. ReWEP users can explore trends in wholesale electricity prices and their relationship to wind and solar generation. ReWEP includes nodal pricing trends across locations, regions, and different timeframes. The tool consists of maps, time series, and other interactive figures that provide: (1) a general overview of how average pricing, negative price frequency, and extreme high prices vary over time, and (2) a summary of how pricing patterns are related to wind and solar generation. Interactive functionality allows investigation by year, season, time of day, and region, where region is defined as the Independent System Operators (ISO) or Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) region. ReWEP also contains prices throughout much of the western United States from the Western Energy Imbalance Market and the Western Energy Imbalance Service Market.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Wholesale Energy Price Trends: The Renewables and Wholesale Electricity Prices (ReWEP) tool (Ver. 2024.1)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices

This study quantifies the potential impacts of wildfires on the California grid, specifically the impacts under three different wildfire scenarios: a "no wildfire" scenario and two wildfire-specific scenarios, "2020 wildfire" and "enhanced wildfire" (with both wildfire scenarios assuming spatial distribution of the wildfire location the same as the 2020 fires). The study combines each scenario with two solar energy infrastructures: one corresponding to the current solar installation and the other to future (midcentury) solar installation. The analysis is conducted using state-of-the-science modeling tools: primarily WRF-Chem for atmospheric modeling with chemistry to account for impacts of wildfires on solar radiation and PLEXOS for electricity market simulations. The analysis suggests that wildfires can significantly attenuate solar radiation at both short downwind distances as well as far from the emissions sources. Although the study is limited in scope, and the analysis studies only a few of the many factors that can affect photovoltaic generation and electricity markets, it indicates that wildfire smoke is an important factor that needs to be carefully considered and analyzed in planning the future grid.

electricity market↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy storage price targets to enable energy arbitrage in CAISO.

Abstract not provided.

Barba, Pedro↗

DOE OSTI2021

2020 Energy Storage Pricing Survey

The annual Energy Storage Pricing Survey (ESPS) series is designed to provide a standardized reference system price for various energy storage technologies across a range of different power and energy ratings. This is an essential first step in comparing systems of the different technologies’ usage costs and total cost of ownership. The final system prices are developed based on data from an extensive set of interviews with representatives across the manufacturing and project development value chain, plus available published data. This information is incorporated into a consistent methodology structure that will allow pricing information to be incorporated at whatever level it was obtained, ranging from component to fully installed system. The ESPS system pricing methodology breaks down the cost of an energy storage system into the following component categories: the storage module; the balance of system; the power conversion system; the energy management system; and the engineering, procurement, and construction costs. By evaluating each of the different component costs separately, a more accurate system cost can be developed that provides internal pricing consistency between different project sizes using the same technology, as well as between different technologies that utilize similar components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

2019 Energy Storage Pricing Survey

Since grid energy storage is still evolving rapidly, it is often difficult to obtain project specific capital costs for various energy storage technologies. This information is necessary to evaluate the profitability of the facility, as well as comparing different energy storage technology options. The goal of this report is to summarize energy storage capital costs that were obtained from industry pricing surveys. The methodology breaks down the cost of an energy storage system into the following component categories: the storage module; the balance of system; the power conversion system; the energy management system; and the engineering, procurement, and construction costs. By evaluating each of the different component costs separately, a synthetic system cost can be developed that provides internal pricing consistency between different project sizes using the same technology, as well as between different technologies that utilize similar components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reserve and energy scarcity pricing in United States power markets: A comparative review of principles and practices

Here, errors in forecasting load and renewable-based generation in restructured power systems mean that independent system operators (ISOs) must procure sufficient operating reserves to keep the real-time operation of the system reliable and secure. But when procured reserves turn out to be insufficient in real-time due to the lack of resource capacity or ramp capability, operators often set higher prices for reserves and energy to encourage more supply, and to motivate consumers to decrease usage or shift it to other times. This procedure, which is called scarcity or shortage pricing, is a core feature of U.S. electricity markets. It is receiving increased attention from market designers and stakeholders because scarcity will become more important for spot price formation in the future with the increased penetration of zero-marginal cost renewables, and the shrinking role of fuel costs in setting prices. Scarcity pricing is implemented in various ways by different ISOs. These differences have practical implications for the level of prices and incentives for investment, operations, and demand modification. In this paper, general approaches and specific calculation procedures for reserve and energy scarcity pricing practices and calculations across the seven ISO-based U.S. power markets are reviewed and compared. A consistent terminology is used to facilitate the comparison. Current scarcity pricing practices are grouped into three approaches: (1) imposing an adder after the spot market is run; (2) including stepwise demand curves within market clearing procedures for non-contingency reserve products (e.g., the novel flexiramp product), which tends to yield longer right tails for energy scarcity premium curves; and (3) having stepwise demand curves for traditional contingency reserve products only, which results in shorter right tails in energy scarcity curves. A generic numerical example is presented to highlight the large practical differences among the reserve scarcity pricing approaches and specific implementations. To further investigate factors that contribute the most to demand curves differences among ISOs, a sensitivity analysis is performed. This analysis shows that the largest source of differences among the curves is the scarcity prices assumed in the case of severe scarcity, while the number of steps used and whether flexiramp is considered also yields important differences in scarcity prices. As renewable penetration increases, it will become increasingly crucial to employ administrative demand curves so that spot prices more effectively motivate supply and demand adjustments exactly when and where they are needed. This study shows that the different assumptions yield very different scarcity premiums for reserves and energy, and are likely to provide divergent incentives for resources to respond to shortages. It is concluded that to promote market efficiency, a reserve shortage demand curve should have at least three features: inclusion of the marginal value of reserve products at each shortage level, consideration of the magnitude and probability of supply contingencies, and avoidance of abrupt price discontinuities that can cause excessively volatile market outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

How Do Electricity Pricing Programs Impact the Selection of Energy Efficiency Measures? - A Case Study with U.S. Medium Office Buildings

Building owners usually select energy efficiency measures (EEMs) by referring to return on investment (ROI). Current studies tend to apply static energy price to estimate ROI. However, more and more buildings are adopting dynamic electricity pricing programs. To understand how electricity pricing programs impact the selection of EEMs, this paper presents an analysis of the ROIs of EEMs under different pricing programs using U.S. medium office buildings as an example. Eight EEMs in four typical cities are selected as case studies. Considering five electricity pricing programs scenarios (one static program and four dynamic programs), EEMs are selected based on their ROIs. The main findings are: (1) The ROIs of EEMs change under different pricing programs. (2) In Honolulu, Buffalo, and Denver, replacing interior fixtures with higher-efficiency fixtures has a significantly higher ROI than the rest EEMs under all five pricing programs. However, the ROI of this EEM in Honolulu ranges from 28% to 47% for different pricing programs. (3) Similarly, in Fairbanks, replace heating coil with higher-efficiency coil produce higher ROI than the rest under all five pricing programs. (4) For other EEMs, their ROI rankings vary according to electricity pricing programs.

demand response↗

DOE OSTI2021

Renewable hydrogen and ammonia for combined heat and power systems in remote locations: Optimal design and scheduling

Abstract Using hydrogen (H ) and ammonia (NH ) for renewable energy storage has the potential to enable economical power and heat supply with high renewable penetrations, especially in remote locations which are characterized by high energy costs. In this work we assess the economic competitiveness of renewable combined heat and power (CHP) systems in Mahaka HI, Nantucket MA, and Northwest Arctic Borough (NWAB) AK by optimally designing these systems for scenarios in which power and heat can be purchased over a range of historical energy prices as well as when 100% renewable supply is required. We use a combined optimal design and scheduling model which minimizes annualized net present cost by determining optimal technology selection and size simultaneously with optimal schedules for each period of a system operating horizon aggregated from full year hourly resolution data via a consecutive temporal clustering algorithm. We find that renewable generation meets at least 85% of power demands and 75% of heat demands under the lowest energy prices investigated. Higher conventional energy prices lead to increased renewable penetration which is facilitated by renewable NH as a seasonal energy storage medium, as are 100% renewable CHP systems. NH is used for power generation with heat cogeneration in all three locations, as well as directly for heating in NWAB. On an annual cost basis, NH ‐enabled 100% renewable CHP is only 3% more expensive in Mahaka and NWAB than systems which can purchase energy at the lowest prices, while it is 15% more expensive in Nantucket.

Palys, Matthew J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

DOE Deep Energy Retrofit Cost Survey

A survey was conducted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on deep energy retrofit (DER) market drivers, opportunities, and challenges. The survey was part a research study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to gather information on the costs of DER from home performance contractors and stakeholders. Cost data was gathered from DER projects that use a comprehensive, whole-home approach to drastically reduce energy use and improve performance. DER projects often aim at reducing energy use by 50% or more. In addition, these projects can improve home comfort and potentially benefiting occupant health. Yet, market adoption of DER has been limited. Major limiting factors include complex projects, high costs, perceived risks, extensive disruption, and unfamiliar work scopes to some contractors. In order to better understand what motivates and deters DER projects in today’s market, a survey was conducted to gather this information, and to learn about promising approaches and technologies from the industry perspective. Past surveys on homeowners and home energy performance professionals have studied the motivations and barriers of energy efficiency retrofits. Two surveys of home energy performance professionals were conducted in recent years. The Resources for the Future (RFF) Home Energy Audit and Retrofit Survey was conducted in 2011 by recruiting energy auditors and retrofit installers through members of Efficiency First and Building Performance Institute (BPI) accredited contractors. The survey asked about the business and services that respondents provide, how often homeowners follow their recommendations to retrofit their homes, and the respondents’ opinion on barriers faced by the industry. The survey found that not enough homeowners know about energy audits, but more importantly, it is the high cost of retrofits compared to low energy prices that is responsible for few energy audits and retrofits being completed. The RESNET Deep Retrofit Industry Stakeholder Survey was conducted shortly after launching of the EnergySmart Home Performance Team program. The EnergySmart Team program involves a formal agreement among allied contractors who are engaged in high performance retrofits. Using this allied team approach, teams can pool their expertise and provide each other with customer referrals. The survey asked EnergySmart Team members and outside stakeholders on questions about market and technical barriers in performing home energy retrofits. Survey respondents identified lack of consumer awareness and lack of affordable financing for consumers as the leading market barriers to home energy retrofits. In their written comments, many survey respondents also echoed that the high costs of retrofit compared to low energy prices is a market barrier. Respondents found “certain housing characteristics that prevent effective retrofit” and “energy analysis software inaccuracy or limitations” are the two leading technical barriers. Their choices for technical barriers were reflective of the energy rater/auditor role played by the majority (78%) of the survey respondents. In comparison to past surveys, this work aimed to gather inputs from a broader segment of the home performance industry to identify the opportunities and barriers faced by DERs from all perspectives. The survey asks for project costs to help breakdown the high costs of DERs. This survey is also motivated by a need to better understand the role of DERs in reducing energy use by the residential sectors and meeting climate goals. The survey is designed towards obtaining more substantive inputs from survey respondents by encouraging written comments, rather than setting the goal to reach a large number of respondents. We took this approach because DER is currently still a niche market, so it is more valuable to gather in-depth inputs from individuals who are performing this work rather than getting to the masses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Network-Aware and Welfare-Maximizing Dynamic Pricing for Energy Sharing: Preprint

The proliferation of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DER) within the electrical distribution network presents significant supply and demand flexibilities, but also introduces operational challenges such as voltage spikes and reverse power flows. In response, this paper proposes a network-aware dynamic pricing framework tailored for energy-sharing coalitions that aggregate small, but ubiquitous, BTM DER downstream of a distribution system operator's (DSO) revenue meter that adopts a generic net energy metering (NEM) tariff. By formulating a Stackelberg game between the energy-sharing market leader and its prosumers, we show that the dynamic pricing policy induces the prosumers toward a network-safe operation and decentrally maximizes the energysharing social welfare. The dynamic pricing mechanism involves a combination of a locational ex-ante dynamic price and an ex-post allocation, both of which are functions of the energy sharing's BTM DER. The ex-post allocation is proportionate to the price differential between the DSO NEM price and the energy sharing locational price. Simulation results using real DER data and the IEEE 13-bus test systems illustrate the dynamic nature of network-aware pricing at each bus, and its impact on voltage.

energy communities↗

DOE OSTI2025

Network-Aware and Welfare-Maximizing Dynamic Pricing for Energy Sharing

The proliferation of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DER) within the electrical distribution network presents significant supply and demand flexibilities, but also introduces operational challenges such as voltage spikes and reverse power flows. In response, this paper proposes a network-aware dynamic pricing framework tailored for energy-sharing coalitions that aggregate small, but ubiquitous, BTM DER downstream of a distribution system operator's (DSO) revenue meter that adopts a generic net energy metering (NEM) tariff. By formulating a Stackelberg game between the energy-sharing market leader and its prosumers, we show that the dynamic pricing policy induces the prosumers toward a network-safe operation and decentrally maximizes the energysharing social welfare. The dynamic pricing mechanism involves a combination of a locational ex-ante dynamic price and an ex-post allocation, both of which are functions of the energy sharing's BTM DER. The ex-post allocation is proportionate to the price differential between the DSO NEM price and the energy-sharing locational price. Simulation results using real DER data and the IEEE 13-bus test systems illustrate the dynamic nature of network-aware pricing at each bus, and its impact on voltage.

aggregates↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distribution System State Estimation With High Penetration of Demand Response Enabled Loads

Demand-side operations incentivize utility customers to take part in various grid services. A demand response enabled load (DREL) is a flexible grid asset that schedules electricity consumption in response to a time-of-use (TOU) energy price. Consequently, its energy profile differs from that of a conventional load that is insensitive to price. This difference may cause new challenges for distribution system state estimation (DSSE). It is well known that DSSE often needs to use pseudo-measurements based on historic load profiles to increase system observability. However, historic profiles of conventional loads are not representative of DREL behaviors. Additionally, the inaccuracy impacts DSSE results and other DSSE-dependent operations. In this paper, we propose an online pseudo-measurement generation approach for DSSE with DRELs. We formulate an optimization model to represent DRELs self-adjusting actions. Sampling-based stochastic optimization techniques are proposed to account for uncertainties in DRELs. A set of representative DREL behavior data corresponding to the samples are used to characterize DREL pseudo-measurements. Case studies with modified IEEE 123-bus test system verify the validity of the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pricing and Energy Trading in Peer-to-Peer Zero Marginal-Cost Microgrids

Efforts to utilize 100% renewable energy in community microgrids require new approaches to energy markets and transactions to efficiently address periods of scarce energy supply. In this paper we contribute to the promising approach of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in two main ways: analysis of a centralized, welfare-maximizing economic dispatch that characterizes optimal price and allocations, and a novel P2P system for negotiating energy trades that yields physically feasible and at least weakly Pareto-optimal outcomes. Our main results are 1) that optimal pricing is insufficient to induce agents with batteries to take optimal actions, 2) a novel P2P algorithm to addresses this while keeping private information, 3) a formal proof that this algorithm converges to the centralized solution in the case of two agents negotiating for a single period, and 4) numerical simulations of the P2P algorithm performance with up to 10 agents and 24 periods that show it converges on average to total welfare within 0.1% of the social optimum in on the order of 10s to 100s of iterations, increasing with the number of agents, time periods, and total storage capacity.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2022

Online peak-aware energy scheduling with untrusted advice

This paper studies the online energy scheduling problem in a hybrid model where the cost of energy is proportional to both the volume and peak usage, and where energy can be either locally generated or drawn from the grid. Inspired by recent advances in online algorithms with Machine Learned (ML) advice, we develop parameterized deterministic and randomized algorithms for this problem such that the level of reliance on the advice can be adjusted by a trust parameter. We then analyze the performance of the proposed algorithms using two performance metrics: robustness that measures the competitive ratio as a function of the trust parameter when the advice is inaccurate, and consistency for competitive ratio when the advice is accurate. Since the competitive ratio is analyzed in two different regimes, we further investigate the Pareto optimality of the proposed algorithms. Our results show that the proposed deterministic algorithm is Pareto-optimal, in the sense that no other online deterministic algorithms can dominate the robustness and consistency of our algorithm. Furthermore, we show that the proposed randomized algorithm dominates the Pareto-optimal deterministic algorithm. Our large-scale empirical evaluations using real traces of energy demand, energy prices, and renewable energy generations highlight that the proposed algorithms outperform worst-case optimized algorithms and fully data-driven algorithms.

Lee, Russell↗

DOE OSTI2025

H2A-Lite (Hydrogen Analysis Lite Production Model) [SWR-24-69]

Within H2A-Lite, users can provide a minimal number of inputs—such as hydrogen production technology of choice —to produce estimates about characteristic scale, capital, and operations. Price projections for energy and feedstock are based on the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022, AEO2022 Reference case. The model additionally allows users to override technology default values to adapt to specific technology scales or regional energy prices. As output, H2A-Lite provides cost breakdown from rigorous financial analysis as well as greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions characteristics.

Penev, Michael [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗