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Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies

Because natural gas emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, it holds promise as a green energy transition fuel. However, the overall carbon footprint of natural gas is significantly elevated by methane emissions that occur during its production and transmission (Cusworth et al. 2022). Methane “super-emitters,” while comprising only about 1% of sites, are responsible for the majority of oil- and gas-sourced methane emissions, making their detection and mitigation critical in reducing the climate impact of natural gas and in meeting national and global sustainability goals (Sherwin et al. 2024). Yet, despite advancements in detection, significant uncertainties remain regarding the size, frequency, and duration distributions of methane emissions (e.g., Frankenberg et al. 2016, Cusworth et al. 2022, Chen, Sherwin et al. 2022, Conrad et al. 2023, Johnson et al. 2023, Sherwin et al. 2024) underscoring the need for comprehensive emissions inventories segmented by basin across the US. Airborne surveys are well-suited for collecting data to build these comprehensive, basin-level inventories because they allow for extensive spatial coverage, and have the spatial resolution, and the sensitivity to pinpoint individual methane sources. As remote sensing technologies enable rapid basin-scale surveys, it is imperative to establish scientifically and statistically robust standards to generate reliable and actionable emissions inventories. Recent work has shown that differences in airborne sampling strategies, detection technologies, and analysis can lead to large differences between survey conclusions if not correctly accounted for (Chen et al. 2024). This elevates the importance of incorporating proper sampling and analysis techniques when designing a methane emissions monitoring campaign to produce accurate results and facilitate cross-study comparisons. In this paper, we describe a survey strategy designed using the latest conclusions from the literature to align results from different aerial surveys. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions. We present results from a Department of Energy-funded project that deployed this survey strategy in two understudied oil and gas- producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.

03 NATURAL GAS

Evaluating Global Emission Inventories of Biogenic Bromocarbons

Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidizing capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38 %) to 0.78 (115 %) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24 %) to 1.25 (167 %) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (Br(VSLS/y)). Our simulations show Br(VSLS/y) ranges from approximately 4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimized estimate at the lower end of this range (approximately 4 ppt) based on combining the CHBr3 and CH2Br2 inventories which give best agreement with the compilation of observations in the tropics.

bromocarbons

The ABAG biogenic emissions inventory project

The ability to identify the role of biogenic hydrocarbon emissions in contributing to overall ozone production in the Bay Area, and to identify the significance of that role, were investigated in a joint project of the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and NASA/Ames Research Center. Ozone, which is produced when nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons combine in the presence of sunlight, is a primary factor in air quality planning. In investigating the role of biogenic emissions, this project employed a pre-existing land cover classification to define areal extent of land cover types. Emission factors were then derived for those cover types. The land cover data and emission factors were integrated into an existing geographic information system, where they were combined to form a Biogenic Hydrocarbon Emissions Inventory. The emissions inventory information was then integrated into an existing photochemical dispersion model.

Carson-Henry, C.

Scheduled civil aircraft emission inventories for 1992: Database development and analysis

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from scheduled commercial aircraft for each month of 1992. The seasonal variation in aircraft emissions was calculated for selected regions (global, North America, Europe, North Atlantic, and North Pacific). A series of parametric calculations were done to quantify the possible errors introduced from making approximations necessary to calculate the global emission inventory. The effects of wind, temperature, load factor, payload, and fuel tankering on fuel burn were evaluated to identify how they might affect the accuracy of aircraft emission inventories. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as N02), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Baughcum, Steven L.

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of these mixed results is discussed with respect to the source term estimates.

OMI SO2

Compilation of a Global Emission Inventory from 1980 to 2000 for Global Model Simulations of the Long-term Trend of Tropospheric Aerosols

The approach to create a comprehensive emission inventory for the time period 1980 to 2000 is described in this paper. We have recently compiled an emission database, which we will use for a 21 year simulation of tropospheric aerosols with the GOCART model. Particular attention was paid to the time-dependent SO2, black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions. For the emission of SO2 from sporadically erupting volcanoes, we assembled emission data from the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution, using the VEI to derive the volcanic cloud height and the SO2 amount, and amended this dataset by the SO2 emission data from the TOMS instrument when available. 3-dimensional aircraft emission data was obtained for a number of years from the AEAP project, converted from burned fuel to SO2 and interpolated to each year, taking the sparsity of the flight patterns into account. Other anthropogenic SO2 emissions are based on gridded emissions from the EDGAR 2000 database (excluding sources from aircraft, biomass burning and international ship traffic), which were scaled to individual years with country/regional based emission inventories. Gridded SO2 emissions from international ship traffic for 2000 and the scaling factors for other years are from [Eyring et al., 2005]. We used gridded anthropogenic black and organic carbon emissions for 1996 [Bond et al., 2005], again excluding aircraft, biomass burning and ship sources. These emissions were scaled with regional based emission inventories from 1980 to 2000 to derive gridded emissions for each year. The biomass burning emissions are based on a climatology, which is scaled with regional scaling factors derived from the TOMS aerosol index and the AVHRR/ASTR fire counts to each year [Duncan et al., 2003]. Details on the integration of the information from the various sources will be provided and the distribution patterns and total emissions in the final product will be discussed.

Diehl, Thomas L.

Compilation of a Global Emission Inventory from 1980 to 2000 for Global Model Simulations of the Long-term Trend of Tropospheric Aerosols

The approach to create a comprehensive emission inventory for the time period 1980 to 2000 is described in this paper. We have recently compiled an emission database, which we will use for a 21 year simulation of tropospheric aerosols with the GOCART model. Particular attention was paid to the time-dependent SO2, black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions. For the emission of SO2 from sporadically erupting volcanoes, we assembled emission data from the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution, using the VEI to derive the volcanic cloud height and the SO2 amount, and amended this dataset by the SO2 emission data from the TOMS instrument when available. 3-dimensional aircraft emission data was obtained for a number of years from the AEAP project, converted from burned fuel to SO2 and interpolated to each year, taking the sparsity of the flight patterns into account. Other anthopogenic SO2 emissions are based on gridded emissions from the EDGAR 2000 database (excluding sources from aircraft, biomass burning and international ship traffic), which were scaled to individual years with country/regional based emission inventories. Gridded SO2 emissions from international ship traffic for 2000 and the scaling factors for other years are from [Eyring et al., 2005]. We used gridded anthropogenic black and organic carbon emissions for 1996 [Bond et al., 2005], again excluding aircraft, biomass burning and ship sources. These emissions were scaled with regional based emission inventories from 1980 to 2000 to derive gridded emissions for each year. The biomass burning emissions are based on a climatology, which is scaled with regional scaling factors derived from the TOMS aerosol index and the AVHRR/ATSR fire counts to each year [Duncan et al., 2003]. Details on the integration of the information from the various sources will be provided and the distribution patterns and total emissions in the final product will be discussed.

Diehl, T. L.

Derivation of a New Smoke Emissions Inventory using Remote Sensing, and Its Implications for Near Real-Time Air Quality Applications

A new emissions inventory of particulate matter (PM) is being derived mainly from remote sensing data using fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, as well as wind data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis dataset, which spans the satellite era. This product is generated using a coefficient of emission, C(sub e), that has been produced on a 1x1 degree global grid such that, when it is multiplied with satellite measurements of FRP or its time-integrated equivalent fire radiative energy (FRE) retrieved over a given area and time period, the corresponding PM emissions are estimated. This methodology of using C(sub e) to derive PM emissions is relatively new and advantageous for near real-time air quality applications compared to current methods based on post-fire burned area that may not provide emissions in a timely manner. Furthermore, by using FRP to characterize a fire s output, it will represent better accuracy than the use of raw fire pixel counts, since fires in individual pixels can differ in size and strength by orders of magnitude, resulting in similar differences in emission rates. Here we will show examples of this effect and how this new emission inventory can properly account for the differing emission rates from fires of varying strengths. We also describe the characteristics of the new emissions inventory, and propose the process chain of incorporating it into models for air quality applications.

Ellison, Luke

Evaluation of Modeling NO2 Concentrations Driven by Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Using In-Situ Measurements Over China

Chemical transport models together with emission inventories are widely used to simulate NO2 concentrations over China, but validation of the simulations with in situ measurements has been extremely limited. Here we use ground measurements obtained from the air quality monitoring network recently developed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to validate modeling surface NO2 concentrations from the CHIMERE regional chemical transport model driven by the satellite-derived DECSO and the bottom-up MIX emission inventories. We applied a correction factor to the observations to account for the interferences of other oxidized nitrogen compounds (NOz), based on the modeled ratio of NO2 to NOz. The model accurately reproduces the spatial variability in NO2 from in situ measurements, with a spatial correlation coefficient of over 0.7 for simulations based on both inventories. A negative and positive bias is found for the simulation with the DECSO (slopeD0.74 and 0.64 for the daily mean and daytime only) and the MIX (slopeD1.3 and 1.1) inventories, respectively, suggesting an underestimation and overestimation of NOx emissions from corresponding inventories. The bias between observed and modeled concentrations is reduced, with the slope dropping from 1.3 to 1.0 when the spatial distribution of NOx emissions in the DECSO inventory is applied as the spatial proxy for the MIX inventory, which suggests an improvement of the distribution of emissions between urban and suburban or rural areas in the DECSO inventory compared to that used in the bottom-up inventory. A rough estimate indicates that the observed concentrations, from sites predominantly placed in the populated urban areas, may be 10-40% higher than the corresponding model grid cell mean. This reduces the estimate of the negative bias of the DECSO-based simulation to the range of -30 to 0% on average and more firmly establishes that the MIX inventory is biased high over major cities. The performance of the model is comparable over seasons, with a slightly worse spatial correlation in summer due to the difficulties in resolving the more active NOx photochemistry and larger concentration gradients in summer by the model. In addition, the model well captures the daytime diurnal cycle but shows more significant disagreement between simulations and measurements during nighttime, which likely produces a positive model bias of about 15% in the daily mean concentrations. This is most likely related to the uncertainty in vertical mixing in the model at night.

NO2 modelling

Building the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) Smoke Emissions Inventory Version 1.0

The Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) group's new coefficient of emission global gridded product at 1x1 resolution that directly relates fire readiative energy (FRE) to smoke aerosol release, FEERv1.0 Ce, made its public debut in August 2013. Since then, steps have been taken to generate corresponding maps and totals of total particulate matter (PM) emissions using different sources of FRE, and subsequently to simulate the resulting PM(sub 2.5) in the WRF-Chem 3.5 model using emission rates from FEERv1.0 as well as other standard biomass burning emission inventories. An flowchart of the FEER algorithm to calculate Ce is outlined here along with a display of the resulting emissions of total PM globally and also regionally. The modeling results from the WRF-Chem3.5 simulations are also shown.

particulate matter

An Evaluation of Aircraft Emissions Inventory Methodology by Comparisons with Reported Airline Data

This report provides results of work done to evaluate the calculation methodology used in generating aircraft emissions inventories. Results from the inventory calculation methodology are compared to actual fuel consumption data. Results are also presented that show the sensitivity of calculated emissions to aircraft payload factors. Comparisons of departures made, ground track miles flown and total fuel consumed by selected air carriers were made between U.S. Dept. of Transportation (DOT) Form 41 data reported for 1992 and results of simplified aircraft emissions inventory calculations. These comparisons provide an indication of the magnitude of error that may be present in aircraft emissions inventories. To determine some of the factors responsible for the errors quantified in the DOT Form 41 analysis, a comparative study of in-flight fuel flow data for a specific operator's 747-400 fleet was conducted. Fuel consumption differences between the studied aircraft and the inventory calculation results may be attributable to several factors. Among these are longer flight times, greater actual aircraft weight and performance deterioration effects for the in-service aircraft. Results of a parametric study on the variation in fuel use and NOx emissions as a function of aircraft payload for different aircraft types are also presented.

Daggett, D. L.

Source Decomposition of Eddy-Covariance CO 2 Flux Measurements for Evaluating a High-Resolution Urban CO 2 Emissions Inventory

We present the comparison of source-partitioned CO2 flux measurements with a high-resolution urban CO 2 emissions inventory (Hestia). Tower-based measurements of CO and 14 C are used to partition net CO 2 flux measurements into fossil and biogenic components. A flux footprint model is used to quantify spatial variation in flux measurements. We compare the daily cycle and spatial structure of Hestia and eddy-covariance derived fossil fuel CO 2 emissions on a seasonal basis. Hestia inventory emissions exceed the eddy-covariance measured emissions by 0.36 µ mol m −2 s −1 (3.2%) in the cold season and 0.62 µ mol m −2 s −1 (9.1%) in the warm season. The daily cycle of fluxes in both products matches closely, with correlations in the hourly mean fluxes of 0.86 (cold season) and 0.93 (warm season). The spatially averaged fluxes also agree in each season and a persistent spatial pattern in the differences during both seasons that may suggest a bias related to residential heating emissions. In addition, in the cold season, the magnitudes of average daytime biological uptake and nighttime respiration at this flux site are approximately 15% and 27% of the mean fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over the same time period, contradicting common assumptions of no significant biological CO 2 exchange in northern cities during winter. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using trace gas ratios to adapt eddy-covariance flux measurements in urban environments for disaggregating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and urban ecosystem fluxes at high spatial and temporal resolution.

eddy-covariance flux measurements

A New Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emission Inventory for the Last Decade: A Mosaic of Satellite-Derived and Bottom-Up Emissions

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor have been used to detect emissions from large point sources. Emissions from over 400 sources have been quantified individually based on OMI observations, accounting for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Here we report a newly developed emission inventory, OMI-HTAP, by combining these OMI-based emission estimates and the conventional bottom-up inventory, HTAP, for smaller sources that OMI is not able to detect. OMI-HTAP includes emissions from OMI-detected sources that are not captured in previous leading bottom-up inventories, enabling more accurate emission estimates for regions with such missing sources. In addition, our approach offers the possibility of rapid updates to emissions from large point sources that can be detected by satellites. Our methodology applied to OMI-HTAP can also be used to merge improved satellite-derived estimates with other multi-year bottom-up inventories, which may further improve the accuracy of the emission trends. OMI-HTAP SO2 emissions estimates for Persian Gulf, Mexico, and Russia are 59%, 65%, and 56% larger than HTAP estimates, respectively, in year 2010. We have evaluated the OMI-HTAP inventory by performing simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model. The GEOS-5 simulated SO2 concentrations driven by both HTAP and OMI-HTAP were compared against in situ measurements. We focus for the validation on year 2010 for which HTAP is most valid and for which a relatively large number of in situ measurements are available. Results show that the OMI-HTAP inventory improves the agreement between the model and observations, in particular over the US, with the normalized mean bias decreasing from 0.41 (HTAP) to -0.03 (OMI-HTAP) for year 2010. Simulations with the OMI-HTAP inventory capture the worldwide major trends of large anthropogenic SO2 emissions that are observed with OMI. Correlation coefficients of the observed and modelled surface SO2 in 2014 increase from 0.16 (HTAP) to 0.59 (OMI-HTAP) and the normalized mean bias dropped from 0.29 (HTAP) to 0.05 (OMI-HTAP), when we updated 2010 HTAP emissions with 2014 OMI-HTAP emissions in the model.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2)

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies: Methods and Results from the Haynesville, Anadarko, and Permian Basins

Significantly reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector can decrease the rate of climate change over the next two decades, buying critical time for a global energy transition. However, emissions inventories that can be used by oil and gas operators and environmental regulators to identify optimal methane emission mitigation strategies are either based on conservative emission factor methods, or are inconsistent between studies due to differences in sampling strategies or survey technologies. We developed a new approach for methane emissions survey design that yields representative basinwide methane emissions inventories by surveying a subset of total assets in a given oil and gas basin. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions that can be reconciled with future studies. We further present results from deploying this strategy in two oil and gas producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma. Aerial surveys were performed in 2023 using the Insight M LeakSurveyor™ technology. Preliminary results from methane emissions detected by Insight M indicate that aerially detected emissions above roughly 30 kg(CH4)/hr by themselves contribute a fractional loss rate of 1.13% of gross gas production across oil and gas operations in the Haynesville Basin, with aerially detected emissions equivalent to 2.67% of gross gas production in the Woodford Shale. We supplement these aerial estimates with modeled emissions that are below the LeakSurveyor’s survey sensitivity using a recently published inventory-based model of methane emissions, which we update for our survey areas. We then combine our aerial detections with modeled emissions to yield methane emission distributions and inventories that incorporate the full range of potential methane emissions from the smallest to the largest. These results can be used to identify the most effective methane mitigation strategies for our study areas, and can be reconciled with future methane emissions surveys that use different technologies.

Sherwin, Evan (ORCID:0000000321804297)

Aircraft Emission Inventories Projected in Year 2015 for a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) Universal Airline Network

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCT's) on a universal airline network.Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The objective of this work was to evaluate the changes in geographical distribution of the HSCT emissions as the fleet size grew from 500 to 1000 HSCT's. For this work, a new expanded HSCT network was used and flights projected using a market penetration analysis rather than assuming equal penetration as was done in the earlier studies. Emission inventories on this network were calculated for both Mach 2.0 and Mach 2.4 HSCT fleets with NOx cruise emission indices of approximately 5 and 15 grams NOx/kg fuel. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer attitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Baughcum, Steven L.

Developing Methane Emissions Inventories by Fusing Airborne, Satellite, and Modeled Assessments: Comprehensive Surveys of the Anadarko and Haynesville Basin

The objective of this program is to create basin-specific methane emissions inventories of the Haynesville and Anadarko (Woodford shale) basins, based on truly basin-scale data collection and analysis. Emissions of natural gas, predominantly composed of methane, present a significant financial loss to the oil and gas sector and reduce the competitiveness of American energy sources. While large emissions, above 10 kg/h, occur at only a small percentage of oil and gas sites, they account for a disproportionately large volume of emissions. To address this, we executed a concurrent campaign combining cutting-edge bottom-up modeling with top-down aerial and satellite surveys to capture the heavy-tailed distribution of these large emissions to accurately characterize total emissions throughout both regions.

03 NATURAL GAS

The 1977 emissions inventory for southeastern Virginia

Regional tropospheric air pollution modeling and data compilation to simulate the time variation of species concentrations in and around an urban area is discussed. The methods used to compile an emissions inventory are outlined. Emissions factors for vehicular travel in the urban area are presented along with an analysis of the emission gases. Emission sources other than vehicular including industrial wastes, residential solid waste disposal, aircraft emissions, and emissions from the railroads are investigated.

Brewer, D. A.