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At least 19 records

Adapting to a Changing World: Managing the Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies and the Nuclear Nexus [Slides]

The Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies: New and emerging technologies offer countless advances for just above everything; They also have the potential to be used for more destructive purposes; These technologies remain largely ungoverned by laws or norms; and, The nexus of emerging technologies with nuclear threats demands special attention. Overview, questions: How should we be thinking about these issues? What can we do to reduce the risk that accidents or miscalculation will lead to inadvertent escalation—especially at the nuclear nexus? This talk will examine emerging threats, the state of play of international discussions on these issues, and offer recommendations for the future.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Controversy and consensus: common ground and best practices for life cycle assessment of emerging technologies

This manuscript explores six controversial topics regarding LCA of emerging technologies: (1) appropriate use of LCA, (2) uncertainty assessment, (3) comparison with incumbents, (4) adopting standards, (5) system scale-up, and (6) stakeholder engagement. These topics encompass key issues vigorously debated during a series of workshop-style discussions convened by the LCA of Emerging Technologies Research Network (currently hosted by ACLCA). This paper represents the main points of support and opposition for a declarative resolution representing each topic, along with points of consensus, held amongst research network of LCA practitioners and experts. These debates and associated open questions are intended to build awareness amongst practitioners and decision-makers of the common challenges associated with assessing emerging technologies, while fostering evidence-based and context-informed discussions that are both transparent and impactful for the broader community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Adapting to a Changing World: Managing the Promise and Peril of Emerging Technologies and the Nuclear Nexus

This paper is focused on emerging technologies in three areas: outer space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence. Technologies in each of these areas share a number of characteristics that make them a challenge for legally-binding approaches to arms control. For example, they each have significant definitional challenges. They are also dual use and within the reach of non-state actors. Verifying compliance with any legally-binding agreements in these areas poses significant challenges, at least at this time. Moreover, the rapid pace of technological change also contributes to the difficulty of crafting legally-binding arms control measures. The United States has generally championed a more normative approach to the governance of emerging technologies—the idea being that international agreement on norms serves as the basis for collective action to respond to activities that deviate from those norms.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Emerging Technologies Review: Carbon Capture and Conversion to Methane and Methanol

Project 69643 Task 10 - The Air Force Civil Engineer Center has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report this report describes the emerging technology to capture carbon as a waste product and convert this to methane and methanol for deployment as a fuel on Air Force installations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Emerging Technologies Review: Pumped Storage Hydropower

The Air Force Civil Engineer Center (AFCEC) has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report explores pumped storage hydropower. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) currently provides 93% of grid-scale storage capacity (MW) and 99% of electrical energy storage (MWh) in the United States. PSH exploits the potential energy that can be stored by pumping water to higher elevations or pressures to be dispatched when needed. In its simplest form, PSH uses energy to pump water to an upper reservoir for storage, then releases this water through a turbine and generator into a lower reservoir when needed for energy generation. This report provides a thorough technology description, technical considerations, siting considerations, economic/funding considerations associated with the technology. A Regulatory overview and risks associated with the technology are also included in the report.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Emerging Technologies Review: Hydrogen Production and Storage

The Air Force Civil Engineer Center has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report explores the concept of hydrogen production and storage at Air Force installations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Emerging Technologies for Human Mars Exploration

Human Mars explorers will have different needs than robotic explorers. Human Mars exploration can leverage many emerging technologies, and there are opportunities to test these technologies on the International Space Station or in Cislunar space.

Exploration↗

Emerging Technologies Review: Water Microgrid

Project 69643 Task 10 - The Air Force Civil Engineer Center has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report explores the concept of a water microgrid for deployment at Air Force installations. A water microgrid is a local water system that supplies, treats, and distributes water, with the primary objective to meet mission critical water demand during a disruption of the primary supply. A water microgrid can advance an Air Force installation’s water infrastructure and water resilience by being at the ready for meeting critical missions during a utility outage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Emerging Technologies Review: Small Modular Reactors

Project 69643 Task 10 - The Air Force Civil Engineer Center has tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with investigating emerging technologies to inform the Air Force’s understanding of the technology and to guide key considerations for implementing technologies that are resilient and alternative sources to the traditional methods used in the Air Force today. This report provides information about small modular reactor (SMR) technology; the components; and the technological, political, regulatory, economic, environmental, operational, and social considerations using existing, publicly available information from government, international, vendor, and Air Force sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Convergence of Emerging Technologies - EAGL Test Information

The Emergency Automatic Gunshot Detection and Lockdown (EAGL) system provides automatic, autonomous, and timely gunshot detection in both indoor and outdoor environments. This system uses both wired and wireless devices. Self-contained wireless EAGL sensors passively “listen” for gunshot events. These devices also perform a single, daily supervisory heartbeat (HB) function to include a device self-check with reporting capability. Transmissions are received by an assigned EAGL Gateway, which translates the RF sensor data to a PoE network format solely for use by the EAGL system server. The server then performs additional processes after data receipt, which include but are not limited to: event validation and logging, GUI presentation, notifications, and other independent operations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Cross-sectoral impact of emerging technologies on U.S. manufacturing resilience and competitiveness

Introducing new technologies in one energy-intensive industry can affect how other industries operate and stay resilient, yet these cross-sector interactions are often underappreciated in conventional technology roadmaps. In practice, industrial systems do not evolve in isolation. They are linked through shared upstream and downstream dependencies, such as electricity and fuel supply, critical materials, transportation networks, and enabling infrastructure. As a result, large-scale technology deployment in one sector can reshape resource availability, infrastructure demand, and operational risk in others. These interdependencies mean that technology deployment decisions in one sector can create unintended bottlenecks or cascading benefits in others. Here, this article argues that a cross-sector, system-of-systems perspective is essential for evaluating and scaling emerging technologies in energy-intensive industries. By framing industrial transformation as an interconnected systems challenge rather than a set of isolated sectoral decisions, the study highlights how interdependence shapes technology feasibility, adoption pathways, and resilience outcomes. The article illustrates how cross-sector linkages can amplify both risks and benefits, and it emphasizes the importance of integrated planning approaches that account for shared dependencies, cascading impacts, and co-optimization opportunities. Adopting this broader perspective can support more robust technology roadmaps, improve strategic coordination across industries, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the industrial sector as a whole.

Nain, Preeti [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

Radiation Effects on Emerging Technologies: Implications of Space Weather Risk Management

As NASA and its space partners endeavor to develop a network of satellites capable of supporting humankind's needs for advanced space weather prediction and understanding, one of the key challenges is to design a space system to operate in the natural space radiation environment In this paper, we present a description of the natural space radiation environment, the effects of interest to electronic or photonic systems, and a sample of emerging technologies and their specific issues. We conclude with a discussion of operations in the space radiation hazard and considerations for risk management.

LaBel, Kenneth A.↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies for Bioprocessing Separations

Limited availability, rising costs, and environmental concerns about fossil fuels have generated considerable interest in finding alternative, renewable sources including biomass, which can be converted into a number of biofuels and bioproducts. In comparison to petroleum-based products, high processing costs, mainly associated with bioprocessing separations, limit widespread implementation of biofuels and bioproducts. Bioprocess-related separations are also complicated, regardless of the conversion pathway, due to the dilute nature of products and the chemically complex mixtures that result from biomass deconstruction. In many cases, bioprocessing separation approaches lack a technology baseline, or definition of the state of technology (SOT). This work focuses on evaluating the technology readiness of novel separations technologies for the conversion of biomass into biofuels and bioproducts and will address three key topics: 1) SOT description, 2) economic viability analysis of both SOT and innovative separations, and 3) environmental impact assessment of both SOT and novel processes. The current SOT for lignin valorization, dilute carbon recovery, and impurity removal is used to identify potential opportunities for improvement and provide a baseline for comparison with the emerging technologies. Detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are applied to understand the key drivers and challenges related to the economic feasibility and environmental impacts, respectively.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗

Emerging technologies in microguidance and control

Employing recent advances in microfabrication, the Charles Stark Draper Laboratory has developed inertial guidance instruments of very small size and low cost. Microfabrication employs the batch processing techniques of solid state electronics, such as photolithography, diffusion, and etching, to carve mechanical parts. Within a few years, microfabricated gyroscopes should perform in the 10 to 100 deg/h range. Microfabricated accelerometers have demonstrated performance in the 50 to 500 microgravity range. These instruments will result in not only the redesign of conventional military products, but also new applications that could not exist without small, inexpensive sensors and computing. Draper's microfabricated accelerometers and gyroscopes will be described and test results summarized. Associated electronics and control issues will also be addressed. Gimballed, vibrating gyroscopes and force rebalance accelerometers constructed from bulk silicon, polysilicon surface-machined tuning fork gyroscopes, and quartz resonant accelerometers and gyroscopes are examined. Draper is pursuing several types of devices for the following reasons: to address wide ranges of performance, to realize construction in a flat pack, and to lessen the risks associated with emerging technologies.

Weinberg, Marc S.↗