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A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.
Dim prospects are held out for continued exponential growth rates in the generation and use of electric power worldwide and in many local areas, extrapolating from current trends and common projections. While acknowledging the unique advantages of electric power use, the article points out the 30% level of efficiency in conversion of other forms of energy to electrical energy, with huge volumes of wasted energy plus thermal pollution. Even growth at a fixed rate is found problematical, with future needs exhausting water and land resources and fossil fuels in time. Alleviation of the situation by shifting much of the load to still unproven technologies is considered cautiously
Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into shopping mall or transportation hub parking areas could provide additional capacity and convenience.
The advanced cogeneration technology economic optimization study (ACTEOS) was undertaken to extend the results of the cogeneration technology alternatives study (CTAS). Cost comparisons were made between designs involving advanced cogeneration technologies and designs involving either conventional cogeneration technologies or not involving cogeneration. For the specific equipment cost and fuel price assumptions made, it was found that: (1) coal based cogeneration systems offered appreciable cost savings over the no cogeneration case, while systems using coal derived liquids offered no costs savings; and (2) the advanced cogeneration systems provided somewhat larger cost savings than the conventional systems. Among the issues considered in the study included: (1) temporal variations in steam and electric demands; (2) requirements for reliability/standby capacity; (3) availability of discrete equipment sizes; (4) regional variations in fuel and electricity prices; (5) off design system performance; and (6) separate demand and energy charges for purchased electricity.
A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.
A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.
The ability to provide continuous power at significant levels is of utmost importance for many space missions, from simple satellite operations to manned Mars missions. One of the main problems faced in delivering solar or chemical space power in the tens of kW range, is the increasingly massive nature of the power source and the costs associated with its launch, operation and maintenance. A national program had been initiated to study the feasibility of using certain advanced technologies in developing an efficient lightweight space power source. The starting point for these studies has been the Russian TOPAZ-2 space reactor system, with the ultimate goal to aid in the development of a TOPAZ-2 derivative which will be ready for flight by the year 2000. The main objective of this project has been to perform feasibility assessment and trade studies which would allow the development of an advanced space nuclear power system based on the in-core thermionic fuel element technology currently used in the Russian TOPAZ-2 reactor. Two of the important considerations in developing the concept are: (1) compliance of the current TOPAZ-2 and of any advanced designs with U.S. nuclear safety expectations, and (2) compliance of the design with the seven years lifetime requirement. The project was composed of two major phases. The initial phase of the project has concentrated on understanding the TOPAZ-2 thermionic reactor in sufficient detail to allow several follow-on tasks. The primary interest during this first phase has been given on identifying the potential of the TOPAZ-2 design for further improvements. The second phase of the project has focused on the feasibility of a TOPAZ-2 system capable of delivering 30-50 kWe. Towards the elimination of single-point failures in the load voltage regulation system an active voltage regulator has been designed to be used in conjunction with the available shunt load voltage regulator. The possible use of a dual-loop, model-based adaptive control system for load-following in the TOPAZ-2 has also been investigated. The objective of this fault-tolerant, autonomous control system is to deliver the demanded electric power at the desired voltage level, by appropriately manipulating the neutron power through the control drums. As a result, sufficient thermal power is produced to meet the required demand in the presence of dynamically changing system operating conditions and potential sensor failures. The designed controller is proposed for use in combination with the currently available shunt regulators, or as a back-up controller when other means of power system control, including some of the sensors, fail.
An investigation was conducted to evaluate photovoltaic (solar electric systems) systems for a single building at NASA Langley as a representative case for alternative sustainable power generation. Building 1250 in the Science Directorate is comprised of office and laboratory space, and currently uses approximately 250,000 kW/month of electrical power with a projected use of 200,000 kW/month with additional conservation measures. The installation would be applied towards a goal for having Building 1250 classified as a net-zero energy building as it would produce as much energy as it uses over the course of a year. Based on the facility s electrical demand, a photovoltaic system and associated hardware were characterized to determine the optimal system, and understand the possible impacts from its deployment. The findings of this investigation reveal that the 1.9 MW photovoltaic electrical system provides favorable and robust results. The solar electric system should supply the needed sustainable power solution especially if operation and maintenance of the system will be considered a significant component of the system deployment.
Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) systems can be used to produce high-quality, desirable food year round, and the fresh produce can positively contribute to the health and well being of residents in communities with difficult supply logistics. While CEA has many positive outcomes for a remote community, the associated high electric demands have prohibited widespread implementation in what is typically already a fully subscribed power generation and distribution system. Recent advances in CEA technologies as well as renewable power generation, storage, and micro-grid management are increasing system efficiency and expanding the possibilities for enhancing community supporting infrastructure without increasing demands for outside supplied fuels. We will present examples of how new lighting, nutrient delivery, and energy management and control systems can enable significant increases in food production efficiency while maintaining high yields in CEA.Examples from Alaskan communities where initial incorporation of renewable power generation, energy storage and grid management techniques have already reduced diesel fuel consumption for electric generation by more than 40 and expanded grid capacity will be presented. We will discuss how renewable power generation, efficient grid management to extract maximum community service per kW, and novel energy storage approaches can expand the food production, water supply, waste treatment, sanitation and other community support services without traditional increases of consumable fuels supplied from outside the community. These capabilities offer communities with a range of choices to enhance their communities. The examples represent a synergy of technology advancement efforts to develop sustainable community support systems for future space-based human habitats and practical implementation of infrastructure components to increase efficiency and enhance health and well-being in remote communities today and tomorrow.
Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) systems can be used to produce high-quality, desirable food year round, and the fresh produce can positively contribute to the health and well being of residents in communities with difficult supply logistics. While CEA has many positive outcomes for a remote community, the associated high electric demands have prohibited widespread implementation in what is typically already a fully subscribed power generation and distribution system. Recent advances in CEA technologies as well as renewable power generation, storage, and micro-grid management are increasing system efficiency and expanding the possibilities for enhancing community supporting infrastructure without increasing demands for outside supplied fuels. We will present examples of how new lighting, nutrient delivery, and energy management and control systems can enable significant increases in food production efficiency while maintaining high yields in CEA. Examples from Alaskan communities where initial incorporation of renewable power generation, energy storage and grid management techniques have already reduced diesel fuel consumption for electric generation by more than 40% and expanded grid capacity will be presented. We will discuss how renewable power generation, efficient grid management to extract maximum community service per kW, and novel energy storage approaches can expand the food production, water supply, waste treatment, sanitation and other community support services without traditional increases of consumable fuels supplied from outside the community. These capabilities offer communities with a range of choices to enhance their communities. The examples represent a synergy of technology advancement efforts to develop sustainable community support systems for future space-based human habitats and practical implementation of infrastructure components to increase efficiency and enhance health and well being in remote communities today and tomorrow.
The feasibility of placing 120 Satellite Power System (SPS) rectifying antenna (rectenna) sites across the U.S. was studied. An initial attempt is made to put two land sites in each state using several land site selection criteria. When only 69 land sites are located, it is decided to put the remaining sites in the sea and sea site selection criteria are identified. An estimated projection of electrical demand distribution for the year 2000 is then used to determine the distribution of these sites along the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf Coasts. A methodology for distributing rectenna sites across the country and for fine-tuning exact locations is developed, and recommendations on rectenna design and operations are made.
A technology demonstration of a Dish Stirling solar thermal electric system can be accomplished earlier and at a much lower cost than previous planning had indicated by employing technical solutions that allow already existing hardware, with minimum modifications, to be integrated into a total system with a minimum of development. The DSSR operates with a modified United Stirling p-40 engine/alternator and the JPL Test Bed Concentrator as a completely integrated solar thermal electric system having a design output of 25 kWe. The system is augmented by fossil fuel combustion which ensures a continuous electrical output under all environmental conditions. Technical and economic studies by government and industry in the United States and abroad identify the Dish Stirling solar electric system as the most appropriate, efficient and economical method for conversion of solar energy to electricity in applications when the electrical demand is 10 MWe and less.
The technological and economical impacts of a large central power station in Earth orbit on the performance and cost of future spacecraft and their orbital-transfer systems are examined. It is shown that beaming power to remote users cannot be cost-effective if the central power station uses the same power generation system that would be readily available for provision of on-board power. Laser transmitters/receivers to make central power stations feasible are considered. The cost-effectiveness of meeting Earth-orbiting spacecraft electrical demands from a central power station was analyzed, indicating that this application cannot justify the investment required for the central station. Key technology needs which must be met to enable a viable central power station in the future are identified.
Space power requirements for future NASA and other U.S. missions will range from a few kilowatts to megawatts of electricity. Maximum efficiency is a key goal of any power system in order to minimize weight and size so that the space shuttle may be used a minimum number of times to put the power supply into orbit. Nuclear power has been identified as the primary source to meet these high levels of electrical demand. One way to achieve maximum efficiency is to operate the power supply, energy conversion system, and related components at relatively high temperatures. NASA Lewis Research Center has undertaken a research program on advanced technology of refractory metal alloys and composites that will provide baseline information for space power systems in the 1900's and the 21st century. Basic research on the tensile and creep properties of fibers, matrices, and composites is discussed.
Space power requirements for future NASA and other U.S. missions will range from a few kilowatts to megawatts of electricity. Maximum efficiency is a key goal of any power system in order to minimize weight and size so that the Space Shuttle may be used a minimum number of times to put the power supply into orbit. Nuclear power has been identified as the primary power source to meet these high levels of electrical demand. One method to achieve maximum efficiency is to operate the power supply, energy conservation system, and related components at relatively high temperatures. For systems now in the planning stages, design temperatures range from 1300 K for the immediate future to as high as 1700 K for the advanced systems. NASA Lewis Research Center has undertaken a research program on advanced technology of refractory metal alloys and composites that will provide baseline information for space power systems in the 1900's and the 21st century. Special emphasis is focused on the refractory metal alloys of niobium and on the refractory metal composites which utilize tungsten alloy wires for reinforcement. Basic research on the creep and creep-rupture properties of wires, matrices, and composites are discussed.
The starboard Solar Alpha Rotary Joint (SARJ) from the International Space Station (ISS) began exhibiting off-nominal electrical demands and vibration. Examination by spacewalking astronauts revealed metallic debris contaminating the system and damage to the outboard race of the SARJ. Samples of the contamination were returned to Earth and analyzed. Excessive friction caused the nitride region of the 15-5 PH stainless steel race to spall, generating the debris and damaging the race surface. Excessive vibration and excess power was required to operate the system as a result.
Due to the rapid growth of electricity demand and the absence of regulations, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from coal-fired power plants in India have increased notably in the past decade. In this study, we present the first interannual comparison of SO2 emissions and the satellite SO2 observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for Indian coal-fired power plants during the OMI era of 2005-2012. A detailed unit-based inventory is developed for the Indian coal-fired power sector, and results show that its SO2 emissions increased dramatically by 71 percent during 2005-2012. Using the oversampling technique, yearly high-resolution OMI maps for the whole domain of India are created, and they reveal a continuous increase in SO2 columns over India. Power plant regions with annual SO2 emissions greater than 50 Gg year-1 produce statistically significant OMI signals, and a high correlation (R equals 0.93) is found between SO2 emissions and OMI-observed SO2 burdens. Contrary to the decreasing trend of national mean SO2 concentrations reported by the Indian Government, both the total OMI-observed SO2 and average SO2 concentrations in coal-fired power plant regions increased by greater than 60 percent during 2005-2012, implying the air quality monitoring network needs to be optimized to reflect the true SO2 situation in India.
As the concept of on-demand electric air taxis gains popularity and begins to take shape, many research efforts are underway to address the challenges of integrating this new class of passenger-carrying air vehicles into the already congested U.S. National Airspace System. Through collaborations between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Administration, and industry, this concept, commonly referred to as Urban Air Mobility (UAM), envisions a safe, reliable, and efficient mode of transportation traversing metropolitan and urban areas. Among the many challenges being tackled, airspace procedures and information requirements are critical areas of research that need to be addressed. In a joint effort between NASA and Joby Aviation, a human-in-the-loop study was conducted at the NASA Ames Research Center to evaluate initial and midterm operations with air traffic controllers and on-board UAM pilots in the Dallas area. This area was chosen due to its complex Class Bravo Airspace that extends to the surface over a relatively large area. To achieve the goals and objectives of the study, multiple preceding efforts were conducted to develop the candidate procedures and information requirements. This paper provides an overview of the operational concept used for the study, the process that was followed, and the findings from the two tabletop meetings and a shakedown activity. The combination of these led to a set of airspace procedures, letters of agreement, and information requirements that were evaluated in the human-inthe-loop study.