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What does the future hold for utility electricity efficiency programs?

Here, this study develops projections of future spending and savings from electricity efficiency programs funded by electric utility customers in the United States through 2030 based on three scenarios. Our analysis relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, demand-side management and integrated resource plans, and regulatory decisions. The three scenarios represent a range of potential outcomes given the policy environment at the time of the study and uncertainties in the broader economic and state policy environment in each state. We project spending to increase to $8.6 billion in 2030 in the medium scenario, about a 45 percent increase relative to 2016 spending. In the high case, annual spending increases to $11.1 billion in 2030 and remains relatively flat in the low case ($6.8 billion in 2030). Our analysis suggests that electricity efficiency programs funded by utility customers will continue to impact load growth significantly at least through 2030, as savings as a percent of retail sales are forecast at 0.7 percent in the medium scenario and 0.98 percent in the high scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Snapshot of EV-Specific Rate Designs Among U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities

EV-specific electric utility rates have a profound effect on the underlying economics motivating EV adoption. State utility regulators and electric utilities play a critical role in approving and designing rates, respectively. However, the nascence of the EV industry has resulted in regulators’ and utilities’ having very limited experience with EV-specific rate designs. This suggests there could be substantial benefit from efforts intended to provide a better understanding of how EV-specific rates are designed presently in the United States. To meet that need, Berkeley Lab researchers, with support from E9 Insight, developed a database of piloted, proposed, and offered rates among U.S. investor-owned utilities (IOUs) between 2012 and 2022. The database is comprised of 217 electric utility retail rates from IOUs in 38 states and the District of Columbia that either required proof of EV ownership or were otherwise designed for the purposes of reselling energy for use in EV charging (i.e., EV-specific rates). The analysis of the database identifies the EV-specific rate designs currently observed, infers a number of policy-driven objectives, and suggests a number of next steps for future research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electric Utility Industry Standards Landscape

The electric utility industry relies on robust communication protocols to manage complex electrical grid data. The inherent networked nature of electrical grids, coupled with the radial structure of the “last mile” portion delivering power to end-use customers, presents difficulties in describing electrical models using simple data constructs. The paper provides an overview of communication protocols that address electric utility data, including grid data, and classifies these protocols through identification key characteristics that make them suitable for different electric grid data domains. Because of their variety, grid edge devices and their associated dedicated protocols are assessed by groups: those primarily designed for energy production and storage, those related to flexible loads, and those related to electric vehicles. The intent of this report is to provide guidance for stakeholders to navigate the challenges posed by the numerous overlapping protocols available to address electric grid data. Although further industry review, refinement, and validation of the categorization of these protocols is recommended, the authors propose this categorization as a start to improve electric grid awareness and understanding. In addition, this report includes three recommended industry actions regarding protocols to improve communications on the electric grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Distribution of U.S. Electric Utility Revenue Decoupling Rate Impacts from 2005 to 2017

Investments in energy efficiency and distributed generation reduce electric utility retail sales. Since electric utilities have historically collected a large portion of revenues from volumetric energy rates (¢/kWh), such reductions in sales can impact the utility’s ability to sufficiently recover non-production costs. Regulatory mechanisms that “decouple” utility revenues from sales were implemented to help make the utility indifferent to energy efficiency and distributed generation by ensuring the utility is able to collect an allowed level of revenue each year regardless of its sales. However, noticeable and consistent surcharges over time may create the perception of an incorrectly designed or implemented decoupling mechanism. To date, there are limited quantitative analyses of the rate adjustments due to decoupling mechanisms implemented among U.S. electric utilities (see Morgan, 2013). Given the recent rapid increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in some states and utility service territories, consumers may be facing more prevalent and ongoing decoupling surcharges. This, in turn, may undermine stakeholder support for implementation of decoupling mechanisms and the associated utility support for energy efficiency and DERs. To determine the size of retail rate adjustments associated with decoupling mechanisms and whether they have a tendency towards bill surcharges or credits, we analyzed a large dataset of historical annual decoupling rate adjustments for 21 electric utilities in 11 states between 2005 and 2017. We found that decoupling mechanisms adjusted rates, both up and down, between rate cases, and the majority of those adjustments (54 percent) are small (within a range of -1 to 1 percent). However, we also found that 64 percent of the rate adjustment observations in our sample showed a positive rate adjustment. Importantly, once a surcharge is applied there is an 86 percent chance that there will be a surcharge in the next year as well. While our analysis did not seek to understand the root causes for such results, some possible factors include the accuracy of revenue requirement forecasts, emerging structural changes in customer use and production of energy, misaligned financial motivation, and other factors that influence sales (e.g., economic recession).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The use of wholesale market purchases by Western U.S. electric utilities

Load Serving Entities (LSEs) can procure electricity from their owned generation or purchase it on bilateral or centrally organized markets. Electric utility procurement decisions have important implications for resource adequacy, which is gaining attention especially in the Western U.S. However, there is little or no research on trends of utility procurement practices, and the role that wholesale market transactions can have for resource adequacy and other applications. This paper leverages information from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, Berkeley Lab’s Resource Planning Portal, and structured interviews with regulatory and utility staff. We find that use of market transactions to meet electric energy needs has been increasing across U.S. LSEs. The reasons for this trend include a general stagnation in building owned resources, a preference towards contracting renewable energy resources to meet RPS targets, and the lower relative cost of wholesale market electricity. Among market transactions across different time scales, short-term transactions were prevalent in Western U.S. LSEs until the 2008 recession, and thereafter declined to about a quarter of total purchases. In contrast, long-term market transactions have become more prevalent and resource planning reports project the share of these transactions in the procurement mix may continue to increase. Results suggest resource adequacy obligations may drive preferences for asset ownership more than a profit incentive. We also recommend improving the planning to procurement connection by reflecting in planning assumptions the operational constraints of market transactions. These results provide insights on key issues in electric utility procurement that could improve overall market efficiency, respond to rapidly changing industry conditions, and identify practices that LSEs and regulators should consider incorporating into their long-term transmission and capacity planning processes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improving the Accuracy of Clustering Electric Utility Net Load Data using Dynamic Time Warping

Identifying patterns in electric utility net load data in a time-series format is very useful in preparing the operation for next day. Machine learning algorithms have been used in other domains and those concepts are applied in this paper on real-world net load measurement data. Clustering is the practice of grouping data with similar characteristics as determined by the distance measure. The K-means clustering algorithm is utilized here with actual electric utility data. The paper uses the standard distance measure, Euclidean distance (ED), and compares its performance against the dynamic time warping (DTW) measure. An actual case study with real data is presented, and DTW distance measure-based method observed to result better accuracy compared to the ED based method for substation net load measurements predominantly with residential customers.

clustering↗

A Handbook for Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating Successful Electric Utility Pilots

Since at least the late 1970s, electric utilities and their regulators have recognized the value of experimentation to motivate innovation. The industry has a long history of using pilots to help inform future decision making about electric utility rates, customer technology adoption and integration, and even changes to the utility’s regulatory or business model. Although utility pilots have become almost ubiquitous proving grounds for new rates, technologies, and alterations to the traditional utility regulatory and business model, some regulators are beginning to raise questions about what constitutes a “good” pilot. Much has been written about utility pilots over the years; however, what is missing from the literature is the identification of a comprehensive process for not only designing and evaluating a pilot, but also implementing, successful utility pilots that provide actionable outcomes upon which more informed decisions can be made. This report provides a step-by-step process that regulators, policymakers, and utilities can follow to help promote a more successful pilot, even if whatever is being tested fails to produce the intended or expected result(s). It is worth noting that this report is not intended to serve as a technical resource for those designing, implementing, and evaluating pilots. However, there are myriad references provided for those wishing to delve deeper into the technical details.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Emerging Best Practices for Electric Utility Planning with Climate Variability: A Resource for Utilities and Regulators

This report is intended to support electric utilities and regulators as they work together to increase the climate resilience of the power system in the United States. It focuses on best practice methods and examples of conducting utility forecasting with climate change (Section 2) as well as three overlapping types of electric utility planning for climate change: resource planning (Section 3), asset planning (Section 4), and contingency planning (Section 5). This report also addresses data development and access (Section 6), emerging pathways for planning including decision-making under deep uncertainty and storylines approaches (Section 7), regulatory considerations (Section 8), and coordination and innovative funding and cost sharing approaches to planning for climate variability (Section 9).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Review of Water and Climate Change Analysis in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which electric utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) evaluate the impact of water constraints on electric generation resource portfolios and the extent to which IRPs consider the impacts of climate change to generation and loads. This white paper reviewed 30 IRPs to determine best practices with respect to analyzing and reporting on potential water-based and climate change risks within the integrated resource planning process. Best practices from electric utility IRPs are identified and additional recommendations and considerations are put forth. In recent years, thermal generating facilities have experienced challenges with water availability: a shortage of cooling water, conditions in which incoming cooling water is too warm for optimal operation, and/or water discharge temperatures exceeding permit limits. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently reported on a study that identified for the year 2030, 98.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity at risk due to water stress. Climate change effects on hydrological cycles may adjust the timing, temperature, and volume of water availability for thermal electric cooling and for hydropower generation, which could further exacerbate the frequency and duration of operational constraints. Climate change can also impact the timing and intensity of electric loads that utilities must serve, most notably for heating and cooling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The distribution of U.S. electric utility revenue decoupling rate impacts from 2005 to 2017

Electric utilities have historically relied on volumetric energy rates. Reductions in sales can have an adverse effect on a utility's ability to sufficiently recover its costs. Decoupling mechanisms, when properly designed, diminish the link between revenues and sales. Additionally, analysis of annual rate adjustments from decoupling mechanisms indicate the majority of those adjustments are small. However, once a surcharge is applied there is an 86 percent chance there will be a surcharge in the next year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector

Innovation is essential for future power systems to be safe and secure, clean and sustainable, affordable and equitable, and reliable and resilient, according to a recent National Academies report. But state regulatory reforms are needed to encourage adoption of new technologies to support evolution of the nation’s power systems.1 Berkeley Lab's report, The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, provides consumer, labor, utility, third-party provider, and clean technology consultant perspectives on this theme. To achieve state targets for clean energy and greenhouse gas emissions, some state regulatory utility commissions are exploring new approaches to spur innovation: -For utilities, regulatory and marketing flexibility, increased funding for demonstration projects, and performance-based ratemaking including multi-year rate plans -For third parties, ways to provide utility customers with innovative products and services directly Among the questions the report addresses: 1. How are consumer advocate views evolving with respect to innovative regulatory and ratemaking approaches? 2. How can utility decarbonization and grid modernization initiatives provide opportunities for local communities and workers to receive tangible benefits and facilitate community support for siting electricity infrastructure? 3. How are electric utilities partnering with technology companies to provide innovative energy management services and sustainable energy solutions for utility customers? 4. What regulatory innovations are public utility commissions exploring to enable third-party providers to participate in the transition to a modern electric system? 5. What regulatory changes are needed to enable innovative solutions from utilities and third parties at the necessary speed and scale to meet state decarbonization goals? The report is the 13th in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series, which taps leading thinkers to tackle complex regulatory issues for electricity. 1 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. The National Academies Press.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regulatory Mechanisms to Enable Investments in Electric Utility Resilience

In 2019, Sandia National Laboratories contracted Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) to research the integration of community and electric utility resilience investment planning as part of the Designing Resilient Communities: A Consequence-Based Approach for Grid Investment (DRC) project. Synapse produced a series of reports to explore the challenges and opportunities in several key areas, including benefit-cost analysis, performance metrics, microgrids, and regulatory mechanisms to promote investments in electric system resilience. This report focuses on regulatory mechanisms to improve resilience. Regulatory mechanisms that improve resilience are approaches that electric utility regulators can use to align utility, customer, and third-party investments with regulatory, ratepayer, community, and other important stakeholder interests and priorities for resilience. Cost-of-service regulation may fail to provide utilities with adequate guidance or incentives regarding community priorities for infrastructure hardening and disaster recovery. The application of other types of regulatory mechanisms to resilience investments can help. This report: characterizes regulatory objective as they apply to resilience; identifies several regulatory mechanisms that are used or can be adapted to improve the resilience of the electric system--including performance-based regulation, integrated planning, tariffs and programs to leverage private investment, alternative lines of business for utilities, enhanced cost recovery, and securitization; provides a case study of each regulatory mechanism; summarizes findings across the case studies; and suggests how these regulatory mechanisms might be improved and applied to resilience moving forward. In this report, we assess the effectiveness of a range of utility regulatory mechanisms at evaluating and prioritizing utility investments in grid resilience. First, we characterize regulatory objectives which underly all regulatory mechanisms. We then describe seven types of regulatory mechanisms that can be used to improve resilience--including performance-based regulation, integrated planning, tariffs and programs to leverage private investment, alternative lines of business for utilities, enhanced cost recovery, and securitization--and provide a case study for each one. We summarize our findings on the extent to which these regulatory mechanisms have supported resilience to date. We conclude with suggestions on how these regulatory mechanisms might be improved and applied to resilience moving forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integration of equitable resilience metrics into climate-informed electric utility planning processes: phase one

Working together, Sandia National Laboratories, Southern California Edison (SCE) - an Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) - and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) are studying how electric utilities can use equity and resilience metrics to help inform the prioritization and sequencing of resilience-driven infrastructure investments. To this end, this project evaluated “Social Burden,” an equitable resilience metric which measures the potential impact of disruptions in access to non-electric critical services on people and estimates community resilience to these disruptions. The Social Burden was expanded to incorporate SCE’s existing equity metric and applied to evaluate the potential impacts from a range of climate-informed hypothetical outage scenarios developed under SCE’s 2022 Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment. One baseline (“blue-sky”) state and eight different outage scenarios were evaluated to measure the potential impacts of the outages on non-electric infrastructure, critical services, and people. Key findings include: 1) the Social Burden framework is flexible enough to adapt to and build upon existing utility equity and/or resilience metrics, 2) Social Burden results highlight the high degree of non-electric service redundancy within the SCE service area with most (6/8) hypothetical outage scenarios predicted to increase people’s Social Burden by less than 10%; however, 3) access to critical services and people’s ability to obtain them is unequal and spatially clustered, meaning that there are some hypothetical outage scenarios (2/8) that will exert a higher toll on communities directly experiencing the outage as well as some nearby communities with pre-existing vulnerabilities. The report concludes with recommendations for potential use cases of the expanded Social Burden metric and identifies priority follow-on work. Potential use cases may include incorporating equity into IOU’s prioritization of climate resilience investments. Additionally, Social Burden analysis may provide additional data and insights to augment grid planning, potentially by identifying additional needs and/or prioritizing previously identified needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric Utility Communications Standards Landscape 2025 Edition

Historically, challenges to managing electric utility data exchange have been addressed through dedicated communication solutions, enabling the transmission of data with both speed and security. Protocols have been deployed in a relatively uniform fashion; for example, field communications for Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) are commonly implemented using IEEE 1815 (DNP3).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory EAGLE-I TM : Modeling Electric Utility County Customers for Situational Awareness

During natural hazard events (hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) and recent man-made events (e.g., cyber attacks), the exchange of near real-time, spatially refined data within the response community is critical. The EAGLE-I$^{TM}$ platform is one tool that facilitates this data for decision makers within the energy sector. While much information can be collected and integrated into the system directly, other pertinent data must be augmented by other derived data products to enhance the information and allow for a consistent evaluation of on-the-ground conditions. One such data set that requires the addition of other derived data is the electric utility customer outage data that is aggregated to the county level within the EAGLE-I application. Without a county customer data set, outages can only be compared on total counts, which gives greater importance to higher population outages. Including an electric utility customer data set at the county level allows for these outage counts to be converted to percent outages and brings a consistent classification of outages and equal importance to all outages. To achieve this, several available data sets were combined and spatial disaggregation techniques were employed to model customer estimates at the county scale. This paper presents the approach to produce this data for the United States and lessons learned from working with these disparate data sets. Data validation is provided, where possible, and limitations of the model and possible improvements are discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗