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At least 19 records

Ecophysiological Characteristics of Obligate Methanotrophic Bacteria and Methane Oxidation In Situ

Most of the obligate methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB) described to date are neutrophilic mesophiles that grow optimally in dilute media. Kinetic analyses generally indicate that bacterial methane uptake occurs by transport systems with a K(sub m) greater than l micronM. These and other properties of MOB are inconsistent with characteristics of methane oxidation in situ. The inconsistencies indicate a need for greater attention to the ecophysiological characteristics of isolates and the design of enrichment and isolation schemes which emphasize ecologically relevant parameters (e.g., low temperature, limited and diverse substrate availability, low water potential).

King, Gary M.↗

Ecophysiological Changes in Microbial Mats Incubated in a Greenhouse Collaboratory

Microbial mats are modern examples of the earliest microbial communities known. Among the best studied are microbial mats growing in hypersaline ponds managed for the production of salt by Exportadora de Sal, S.A. de C.V., Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico. In May, 2001, we collected mats from Ponds 4 and 5 in this system and returned them to Ames Research Center, where they have been maintained for a period of over nine months. We report here on both the ecophysiological changes occurring in the mats over that period of time as well as the facility in which they were incubated. Mats (approximately 1 sq. meter total area) were incubated in a greenhouse facility modified to provide the mats with natural levels of visible and ultraviolet radiation as well as constantly flowing, temperature-controlled water. Two replicated treatments were maintained, a 'high salinity' treatment (about 120 ppt) and a 'low salinity' treatment (about 90 ppt). Rates of net biological activity (e.g., photosynthesis, respiration, trace gas production) in the mats were relatively constant over the several months, and were similar to rates of activity measured in the field. However, over the course of the incubation, mats in both treatments changed in physical appearance. The most obvious change was that mats in the higher salinity treatments developed a higher proportion of carotenoid pigments (relative to chlorophyll), resulting in a noticeably orange color in the high salinity mats. This trend is also seen in the natural salinity gradient present at the field site. Changes in the community composition of the mats, as assayed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), as well as biomarker compounds produced in the mats were also monitored. The degree to which the mats kept in the greenhouse changed from the originally collected mats, as well as differences between high and low salinity mats will be discussed. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bebout, Brad↗

Ecophysiology of phototrophic sulfur bacteria in lakes: Vertical distribution of planktonic populations

The study of purple and green sulfur bacterial populations in nature is of interest for the following reasons: (1) high quantities of biomass, with low species diversity can be collected; (2) study of planktonic life permits one to understand the mechanisms, structural as well as physiological, used to maintain their vertical position without sinking; and (3) they are capable of sulfur oxidations and reductions that act as important intermediates in the global sulfur cycle. Purple and green photosynthetic bacteria, moreover, may be responsible for certain geological deposits. Planktonic phototrophic sulfur bacteria were analyzed in relation to their vertical distribution in the water column. Factors, including competition for light, that determine their sedimentation rates and the numerical changes in species and populations were assessed.

Guerrero, R.↗

Approaches to vegetation mapping and ecophysiological hypothesis testing using combined information from TIMS, AVIRIS, and AIRSAR

The Tropical Rainforest Ecology Experiment (TREE) had two primary objectives: (1) to design a method for mapping vegetation in tropical regions using remote sensing and determine whether the result improves on available vegetation maps; and (2) to test a specific hypothesis on plant/water relations. Both objectives were thought achievable with the combined information from the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS), Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR). Implicitly, two additional objectives were: (1) to ascertain that the range within each variable potentially measurable with the three instruments is large enough in the site, relative to the sensitivity of the instruments, so that differences between ecological groups may be detectable; and (2) to determine the ability of the three systems to quantify different variables and sensitivities. We found that the ranges in values of foliar nitrogen concentration, water availability, stand structure and species composition, and plant/water relations were large, even within the upland broadleaf vegetation type. The range was larger when other vegetation types were considered. Unfortunately, cloud cover and navigation errors compromised the utility of the TIMS and AVIRIS data. Nevertheless, the AIRSAR data alone appear to have improved on the available vegetation map for the study area. An example from an area converted to a farm is given to demonstrate how the combined information from AIRSAR, TIMS, and AVIRIS can uniquely identify distinct classes of land use. The example alludes to the potential utility of the three instruments for identifying vegetation at an ecological scale finer than vegetation types.

Oren, R.↗

Iron-Tolerant Cyanobacteria: Ecophysiology and Fingerprinting

Although the iron-dependent physiology of marine and freshwater cyanobacterial strains has been the focus of extensive study, very few studies dedicated to the physiology and diversity of cyanobacteria inhabiting iron-depositing hot springs have been conducted. One of the few studies that have been conducted [B. Pierson, 1999] found that cyanobacterial members of iron depositing bacterial mat communities might increase the rate of iron oxidation in situ and that ferrous iron concentrations up to 1 mM significantly stimulated light dependent consumption of bicarbonate, suggesting a specific role for elevated iron in photosynthesis of cyanobacteria inhabiting iron-depositing hot springs. Our recent studies pertaining to the diversity and physiology of cyanobacteria populating iron-depositing hot springs in Great Yellowstone area (Western USA) indicated a number of different isolates exhibiting elevated tolerance to Fe(3+) (up to 1 mM). Moreover, stimulation of growth was observed with increased Fe(3+) (0.02-0.4 mM). Molecular fingerprinting of unialgal isolates revealed a new cyanobacterial genus and species Chroogloeocystis siderophila, an unicellular cyanobacterium with significant EPS sheath harboring colloidal Fe(3+) from iron enriched media. Our preliminary data suggest that some filamentous species of iron-tolerant cyanobacteria are capable of exocytosis of iron precipitated in cytoplasm. Prior to 2.4 Ga global oceans were likely significantly enriched in soluble iron [Lindsay et al, 2003], conditions which are not conducive to growth of most contemporary oxygenic cyanobacteria. Thus, iron-tolerant CB may have played important physiological and evolutionary roles in Earths history.

Brown, I. I.↗

Using Science Skills to Understand Ecophysiology and Manage Resources

Presentation will be for a general audience and focus on plant science and ecosystem science in NASA. Examples from the projects involving the presenter will be used to illustrate. Specifically, the California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta project. This collaboration supports the goals of the Delta Plan in developing science-based, adaptive-management strategies. The mission is to improve reliability of water supply and restore a healthy Delta ecosystem while enhancing agriculture and recreation. NASA can contribute gap-filling science understanding of overall functions in the Delta ecosystem and assess and help develop management plans for specific issues. Airborne and satellite remote-sensing, ecosystem modeling, and biological studies provide underlying data needed by Delta stakeholders to assess and address water, ecosystem restoration, and environmental and economic impacts of potential actions in the Delta. The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, the hub for California's water supply, supports important ecosystem services for fisheries, supplies drinking water for millions, and distributes water from Northern California to agriculture and urban communities to the south; millions of people and businesses depend on Delta water. Decades of competing demands for Delta resources and year-to-year variability in precipitation has resulted in diminished overall health of the Delta. Declines in fish populations, threatened ecosystems, endangered species, invasive plants and animals, cuts in agricultural exports, and increased water conservation is the result. NASA and the USDA, building on previous collaborations, aide local Delta stakeholders in assessing and developing an invasive weed management approach. Aquatic, terrestrial, and riparian invasive weeds threaten aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem restoration efforts. Aquatic weeds are currently detrimental economically, environmentally, and sociologically in the Delta. They negatively impact the redistribution of water and disrupt the ecology of the Bay Delta food web. Filling current science gaps in the Delta Plan and improving management practices within the Delta are important to achieving the mission of improved Delta health. Methods developed can become routine land and water management tools. New high-resolution NASA sensor systems could be used to provide data packages specifically designed for water system The presenter will also speak about his personal experience and the role Delaware Valley College played in preparation for a professional career science.

Water↗

(abstract) Monitoring Seasonal State and Mapping Species in Alaskan Taiga Using Imaging Radar as Input to CO(sub 2) Flux Models

Changes in the seasonal CO(sub 2) flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO(sub 2) concentrations and associated atmospheric warming. To monitor this potential change, a combination of remote sensing information and ecophysiological models are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to provide some of the input to the ecophysiological models: forest type, freeze/thaw state which limits the growing season for conifers, and leaf on/off state which limits the growing season for deciduous species. AIRSAR data collected in March 1988 during an early thaw event and May 1991 during spring breakup are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off and soil freeze/thaw transitions. Finally, a CO(sub 2) flux algorithm which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO(sub 2) flux is presented. CO(sub 2) flux maps are generated from which areal estimates of CO(sub 2) flux are derived.

leaf cover boreal forests radar backscatter↗

A Multi-Scale Sampling Strategy for Detecting Physiologically Significant Signals in AVIRIS Imagery

Models of photosynthetic production at ecosystem and global scales require multiple input parameters specifying physical and physiological surface features. While certain physical parameters (e.g., absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) can be derived from current satellite sensors, other physiologically relevant measures (e.g., vegetation type, water status, carboxylation capacity, or photosynthetic light-use efficiency), are not generally directly available from current satellite sensors at the appropriate geographic scale. Consequently, many model parameters must be assumed or derived from independent sources, often at an inappropriate scale. An abundance of ecophysiological studies at the leaf and canopy scales suggests strong physiological control of vegetation-atmosphere CO2 and water vapor fluxes, particularly in evergreen vegetation subjected to diurnal or seasonal stresses. For example hot, dry conditions can lead to stomatal closure, and associated "downregulation" of photosynthetic biochemical processes, a phenomenon often manifested as a "midday photosynthetic depression". A recent study with the revised simple biosphere (SiB2) model demonstrated that photosynthetic downregulation can significantly impact global climate. However, at the global scale, the exact significance of downregulation remains unclear, largely because appropriate physiological measures are generally unavailable at this scale. Clearly, there is a need to develop reliable ways of extracting physiologically relevant information from remote sensing. Narrow-band spectrometers offer many opportunities for deriving physiological parameters needed for ecosystem and global scale photosynthetic models. Experimental studies on the ground at the leaf- to stand-scale have indicated that several narrow-band features can be used to detect plant physiological status. One physiological signal is caused by xanthophyll cycle pigment activity, and is often expressed as the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). Because the xanthophyll cycle pigments are photoregulatory pigments closely linked to photosynthetic function, this index can be used to derive relative photosynthetic rates. An additional signal with physiological significance is the 970 nm water absorption band, which provides a measure of liquid water content. This feature has been quantified both using a simple 2-band ratio (900/970 nm, here referred to as the "Water Band Index" or WBI;), and using the "continuum removal" method. Current atmospheric correction methods for AVIRIS imagery also obtain quantitative expressions of surface liquid water absorption based on the 970 nm water band and may be comparable to ground-based estimates of water content using this feature. However, physiological interpretations of both the PRI and the WBI are best understood at the leaf and canopy scales, where complications of atmospheric interference and complex stand and landscape features can be minimized, and where experimental manipulations can be readily applied. Currently it is not known whether these physiological indices can be used to derive meaningful physiological information from AVIRIS imagery. In addition to the problem of atmospheric interference, another challenge is that any simple physiological index can be confounded by multiple factors unrelated to physiology, and this problem can become more severe at progressively larger spatial scales. For example, previous work has suggested that both the PRI and the WBI, are strongly correlated with other optical measures of canopy structure (e.g., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index or green vegetation fraction), indicating a confounding effect of structure on physiological signals at the larger, landscape scale. Furthermore, the normal operating mode of most imaging spectrometers does not allow simultaneous, ground truthing at a level of detail needed for physiological sampling. Additionally, manipulative experiments of physiology are difficult to apply at a geographic scale suitable for comparison with remote imagery, which often works at spatial scales that are several orders of magnitude larger than those typically used for physiological studies. These limitations require the consideration of alternative approaches to validating physiological information derived from AVIRIS data. In this report, we present a multi-scale sampling approach to detecting physiologically significant signals in narrow-band spectra. This approach explores the multi-dimensional data space provided by narrow-band spectrometry, and combines AVIRIS imagery at a large scale, with ground spectral sampling at an intermediate scale, and detailed ecophysiological measurements at a fine scale, to examine seasonally and spatially changing relationships between multiple structural and physiological variables. Examples of this approach are provided by simultaneous sampling of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an index of fractional PAR interception and green vegetation cover, the Water Band Index (WBI, an index of liquid water absorption, and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, an index of xanthophyll cycle pigment activity and photosynthetic light-use efficiency. By directly linking changing optical properties sampled on the ground with measurable physiological states, we hope to develop a basis for interpreting similar signals in AVIRIS imagery.

Gamon, John A.↗

Evaluating the Type and State of Alaska Taiga Forests with Imaging Radar for Use in Ecosystem Models

Changes in the seasonal CO2 flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming patterns. To monitor this potential change, a combination of information derived from remote sensing data, including forest type and growing season length, and ecophysiological models which predict the CO2 flux and its seasonal amplitude based on meteorological data, are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map fores type and monitor canopy and soil freeze/thaw, which define the growing season for conifers, and leaf on/off, which defines the growing season for deciduous species. Aircraft SAR (AIRSAR) data collected in March 1988 during a freeze/thaw event are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off transitions and soil freeze/thaw. Finally, a CO2 flux algorithm is presented which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO2 flux. CO2 flux maps are generated, from which areal estimates of CO2 flux are derived.

Alaska↗

GeoNEX-SUBSETS: Geostationary Satellite Observations Over International Observing Network Sites

Satellite remote sensing is crucial for monitoring the Earth’s surface and for simulating global carbon and water cycles. Subsets of satellite data from sensors such as MODIS over established observing networks have been valuable for researchers for comparing the ground observed phenomena with satellite observations. Here, we introduce new subsets of the GeoNEX geostationary satellite datasets over locations of several ground observation networks. The NASA Earth Exchange group has been generating geostationary satellite products with our international partners and universities to cover the entire globe. In comparison to polar-orbiting satellite sensors such as MODIS, the new generation geostationary satellites observe target areas at a higher frequency (5-10 minutes), which also significantly increased the data volume. To reduce the burden of downloading and extracting geostationary time series data and provide easy access to the community, we provide subsets of GeoNEX products through our data portal [www.data.nas.nasa.gov]. The ready-to-use subset follows the same format as the MODIS fixed sites subset tools for users who are familiar with MODIS subset data and software. The selected networks include Fluxnet, AERONET, and Phenocam over the conterminous US. We demonstrate the usage of the GeoNEX fixed-site subset data and showcase thir advantages with three example studies. The first example is simulating the diurnal cycle of plant ecophysiology at Fluxnet sites. The high frequency of the GeoNEX time series allows us to run ecological models at sub-hour time steps and directly compare the simulated carbon and water fluxes with half-hourly Fluxnet data. The second example uses the geostationary data to track phenological changes. It highlights the high-frequent observations of geostationary satellites in helping mask cloud covers and capture the quick responses of vegetation to environmental changes. As such, these examples demonstrate the value of ready-to-use GeoNEX subsets data in terrestrial ecophysiology research.

GeoNEX↗

The influence of grazing on surface climatological variables of tallgrass prairie

Mass and energy exchange between most grassland canopies and the atmosphere are mediated by grazing activities. Ambient temperatures can be increased or decreased by grazers. Data have been assembled from simulated grazing experiments on Konza Prairie Research Natural Area and observations on adjacent pastures grazed by cattle show significant changes in primary production, nutrient content, and bidirectional reflectance characteristics as a function of grazing intensity. The purpose of this research was to provide algorithms that would allow incorporation of grazing effects into models of energy budgets using remote sensing procedures. The approach involved: (1) linking empirical measurements of plant biomass and grazing intensities to remotely sensed canopy reflectance, and (2) using a higher resolution, mechanistic grazing model to derive plant ecophysiological parameters that influence reflectance and other surface climatological variables.

Seastedt, T. R.↗

Tracking photosynthetic efficiency with narrow-band spectroradiometry

Narrow-waveband spectroradiometry presents the possibility of detecting subtle signals closely related to the current physiological state of vegetation. One such signal related to the epoxidation state of the xanthophyll cycle pigments, violaxanthin, antheraxanthin, and zeaxanthin is discussed. Recent advances in plant ecophysiology demonstrated a close relationship between these pigments and the regulatory state of photosystem 2 in photosynthesis. Our recent field studies of sunflower (Helianthus annuus) and oak (Quercus agrifolia) demonstrated that a 'xanthophyll signal' can be isolated from the diurnal reflectance spectra of intact canopies. Furthermore, the xanthophyll signal can be used to derive a 'physiological reflectance index' (PRI) that closely correlates with the actual photosynthetic efficiency (defined as the photosynthetic rate divided by the incident PAR) in closed canopies. If these signals were detectable in Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometers (AVIRIS) images, they could lead to improved remote estimates of photosynthetic fluxes.

Gamon, John A.↗

Relationships between pigment composition variation and reflectance for plant species from a coastal savannah in California

Advances in imaging spectroscopy have indicated that remotely sensed reflectance measurements of the plant canopy may be used to identify and qualify some classes of canopy biochemicals; however, the manner in which differences in biochemical compositions translate into differences is not well understood. Most frequently, multiple linear regression routines have been used to correlate narrow band reflectance values with measured biochemical concentrations. Although some success has been achieved with such methods for given data sets, the bands selected by multiple regression are not consistent between data sets, nor is it always clear what physical or biological basis underlies the correlation. To examine the relationship between biochemical concentration and leaf reflectance signal we chose to focus on the visible spectrum where the primary biochemical absorbances are due to photosynthetic pigments. Pigments provide a range of absorbance features, occur over a range of concentrations in natural samples, and are ecophysiologically important. Concentrations of chlorophyll, for example, have been strongly correlated to foliar nitrogen levels within a species and to photosynthetic capacity across many species. In addition pigments effectively absorb most of the photosynthetically active radiation between 400-700 nm, a spectral region for which silicon detectors have good signal/noise characteristics. Our strategy has been to sample a variety of naturally occurring species to measure leaf reflectance and pigment compositions. We hope to extend our understanding of pigment reflectance effects to interpret small overlapping absorbances of other biochemicals in the infrared region. For this reason, selected samples were also tested to determine total nitrogen, crude protein, cellulose, and lignin levels. Leaf reflectance spectra measured with AVIRIS bandwidths and wavelengths were compared between species and within species and for differences between seasons, for changes in the the shape of the spectra. We attempt to statistically correlate these shape changes with differences in pigment compositions. In parallel with our comparisons of pigment composition and leaf reflectance, we have modified the PROSPECT leaf reflectance model to test the contributions of pigments or pigment group concentrations. PROSPECT considers a leaf as a multi-layer dielectric plane with an uneven surface. Jacquemoud adapted the basic analysis of Allen for surface effects, a leaf thickness factor, and the absorption of water and chlorophyll (actually all pigments) and the plant matrix. Our modifications to PROSPECT in the forward direction include breaking out the pigment concentration parameter into separate components for chlorophyll a and b and a number of xanthophylls and carotenes, and introducing a shift and convolution function to model the spread and shift from their in vitro measurements to their in vivo state. Further, we have considered how the matrix elements (i.e., all biochemicals and structural effects not modeled explicity) vary with species.

Ustin, Susan L.↗

Can a Satellite-Derived Estimate of the Fraction of PAR Absorbed by Chlorophyll (FAPAR(sub chl)) Improve Predictions of Light-Use Efficiency and Ecosystem Photosynthesis for a Boreal Aspen Forest?

Gross primary production (GPP) is a key terrestrial ecophysiological process that links atmospheric composition and vegetation processes. Study of GPP is important to global carbon cycles and global warming. One of the most important of these processes, plant photosynthesis, requires solar radiation in the 0.4-0.7 micron range (also known as photosynthetically active radiation or PAR), water, carbon dioxide (CO2), and nutrients. A vegetation canopy is composed primarily of photosynthetically active vegetation (PAV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV; e.g., senescent foliage, branches and stems). A green leaf is composed of chlorophyll and various proportions of nonphotosynthetic components (e.g., other pigments in the leaf, primary/secondary/tertiary veins, and cell walls). The fraction of PAR absorbed by whole vegetation canopy (FAPAR(sub canopy)) has been widely used in satellite-based Production Efficiency Models to estimate GPP (as a product of FAPAR(sub canopy)x PAR x LUE(sub canopy), where LUE(sub canopy) is light use efficiency at canopy level). However, only the PAR absorbed by chlorophyll (a product of FAPAR(sub chl) x PAR) is used for photosynthesis. Therefore, remote sensing driven biogeochemical models that use FAPAR(sub chl) in estimating GPP (as a product of FAPAR(sub chl x PAR x LUE(sub chl) are more likely to be consistent with plant photosynthesis processes.

Zhang, Qingyuan↗

Let's Exploit Available Knowledge on Vegetation Fluorescence

The potential to measure vegetation fluorescence from space (1) and to derive from it direct information on the gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is probably the most thrilling development in remote sensing and global ecology of recent years, as it moves Earth observation techniques from the detection of canopy biophysics (e.g., fraction of absorbed radiation) and biochemistry (chlorophyll and nitrogen content) to the realm of ecosystem function. The existence of a functional relationship between fluorescence and photosynthesis has been elucidated over the last decade by several laboratories, notably as part of the preliminary studies of the European Space Agency Fluorescence Explorer (FLEX) Earth Explorer Mission. The empirical observation presented by Guanter et al. (2) of a linear relationship between fluorescence radiance and GPP, however, provides the first experimental confirmation of the feasibility of the approach— already thoroughly tested at leaf level—at the desired scale, despite the confounding effects associated with the satellite detection of such a faint signal. A word of clarification is needed here. The use of fluorescence as a probe of leaf photochemistry has been a staple of plant ecophysiology for decades, rooted in a sound understanding of photosynthetic energy dissipation. However, most past studies had to rely for the interpretation of results on active (pulse-saturated) techniques, making them unsuitable for remote-sensing applications. Over recent years, however, novel process based models have been developed for the interpretation of steady-state, solar-induced fluorescence at the leaf to canopy scale (3). We are therefore in a position to move beyond the mere empirical observation of an association between GPP and fluorescence radiance. In particular, Guanter et al. (2) base their analysis on the assumption of a constant ratio between photosynthetic and fluorescence light use efficiencies (equation 3 in ref. 2).We know, however, that the ratio is not constant, but changes widely in response to light, CO2, stomatal limitations, and extreme stress (4, 5). What’s more, we can make sense of such changes, thus extracting valuable information from the very scatter that is apparent in their data. However, this process will require the availability of more tailored instruments, such as the one planned for the FLEX mission. As already stressed by Guanter et al. (2), the spatial resolution of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 sensor (40 × 80 km) makes it difficult to compare meaningfully the fluorescence signal with ground measurements, when only 60–70% of the footprint consists of the desired land-cover type (table S1 in ref. 2), suggesting that this could be largely responsible for the low signals observed in European grasslands. Moreover, the overpass time of the MetOp-A satellite (9:30 AM) implies that fluorescence is generally measured under light-limiting conditions, when fluorescence is only marginally affected by stomatal closure even under stress conditions. This result could explain the seasonal mismatch with daily GPP observed in natural ecosystems in the absence of irrigation (figure 4 in ref. 2). We hope, therefore, that this welcome contribution to this fast-advancing field will help demonstrate the potential of the new technique, and pave the way for more refined studies under both a technological and scientific point of view.

Space↗

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗