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At least 19 records

Metabolic model-based ecological modeling for probiotic design

The microbial community composition in the human gut has a profound effect on human health. This observation has lead to extensive use of microbiome therapies, including over-the-counter ‘probiotic’ treatments intended to alter the composition of the microbiome. Despite so much promise and commercial interest, the factors that contribute to the success or failure of microbiome-targeted treatments remain unclear. We investigate the biotic interactions that lead to successful engraftment of a novel bacterial strain introduced to the microbiome as in probiotic treatments. We use pairwise genome-scale metabolic modeling with a generalized resource allocation constraint to build a network of interactions between taxa that appear in an experimental engraftment study. We create induced sub-graphs using the taxa present in individual samples and assess the likelihood of invader engraftment based on network structure. To do so, we use a generalized Lotka-Volterra model, which we show has strong ability to predict if a particular invader or probiotic will successfully engraft into an individual’s microbiome. Furthermore, we show that the mechanistic nature of the model is useful for revealing which microbe-microbe interactions potentially drive engraftment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HydroEcoLSTM: A Python package with graphical user interface for hydro-ecological modeling with long short-term memory neural network

Machine learning (ML) is emerging as a promising tool for modeling hydro-ecological processes due to the increasing availability of large environmental data. However, the use of ML requires sufficient programming knowledge due to a lack of a graphical user interface (GUI). In this study, we introduced a GUI package, named HydroEcoLSTM, with the long short-term memory network (LSTM) as the core model, that allows non-ML experts to utilize their domain knowledge to construct complex ML models. We demonstrated the functionalities of HydroEcoLSTM with two practical examples, including (1) predictions of streamflow in both gauged and ungauged catchments and (2) predictions of multiple outputs (i.e., streamflow and isotope transport from two catchments). The simulation results obtained in both case experiments are satisfactory. In the first example, the average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for streamflow simulation during the testing period is 0.79 while the application of the trained model in two assumed ungauged catchments also achieves the average NSE of 0.68. In the second example, the average NSE for streamflow and instream isotope simulation during the testing period is 0.71. Ultimately, applications of HydroEcoLSTM with real-world examples demonstrate its potential use for practical applications and research without requiring extensive coding skills.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydropower Role in a Power Grid with a High Proportion of Variable Renewables

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordination of multiple tools, including water resources modeling, ecological modeling, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. Better representation of ecological constraints and other water use details in the suit of power grid models are required to identify the hydropower flexibility to provide multiple power grid services. Impacts of water planning and hydropower operation changes to a power grid are better understood by production cost model simulations with technical and economic data, including unserved energy, reserve failures, transmission congestion to serve load, and local marginal price increases. Similarly, PCM simulation of current and future projected power grid information, including LMP, and carbon emission rates, informs short-term water release plans and long-term investments for power plant upgrades for technical and ecological needs. Hydropower operations of several case studies are simulated to understand operation patterns, revenue, water release decisions in multiple time scales (month, day, minutes), hydropower contracts scheduling, and water variability impacts.

environmental↗

Utilizing digitized occurrence records of Midwestern feral Cannabis sativa to develop ecological niche models

Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) has historically played a vital role in agriculture across the globe. Feral and wild populations have served as genetic resources for breeding, conservation, and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, feral populations of Cannabis, specifically in the Midwestern United States, remain poorly understood. This study aims to characterize the abiotic tolerances of these populations, estimate suitable areas, identify regions at risk of abiotic suitability change, and highlight the utility of ecological niche models (ENMs) in germplasm conservation. The Maxent algorithm was used to construct a series of ENMs. Validation metrics and MOP (Mobility-oriented Parity) analysis were used to assess extrapolation risk and model performance. We also projected the final projected under current and future climate scenarios (2021–2040 and 2061–2080) to assess how abiotic suitability changes with time. Climate change scenarios indicated an expansion of suitable habitat, with priority areas for germplasm collection in Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This study demonstrates the application of ENMs for characterizing feral Cannabis populations and highlights their value in germplasm conservation and breeding efforts. Populations of feral C. sativa in the Midwest are of high interest, and future research should focus on utilizing tools to aid the collection of materials for the characterization of genetic diversity and adaptation to a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Introduction: Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA. Methods: We used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period. Results: We found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface. Discussion: Our results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Herbicide‐resistant weed management with robots: A weed ecological–economic model

The heavy reliance on herbicides for weed control has led to an increase in resistant weeds in the United States. Robotic weed control is emerging as an alternative technology for removing weeds mechanically using artificial intelligence. We develop an integrated weed ecological and economic dynamic (I‐WEED) model to examine the biophysical and economic drivers of adopting robotic weed management and simulate the optimal timing and intensity of robotic adoption within and across growing seasons. We specify a cohort‐based weed growth model that relates yield damages to effective weed density and treats the susceptibility of weeds to herbicides as a renewable resource that can be regenerated by using mechanical weeding robots, due to a fitness cost that makes resistant weeds less prolific. Compared to myopic weed management which ignores resistance development, forward‐looking management leads to earlier adoption of robots and treating robots as complements instead of substitutes to herbicides. This weed management results in adopting fewer robots, deploying robots on a smaller portion of the land, higher profitability, and lower yield loss in the long run, relative to myopic management. Counterintuitively, myopic management leads to a lower resistance level through its higher robot adoption intensity. We also find that a lower level of initial weed seed resistance and/or a higher fitness cost result in a higher level of resistance because they create incentives for farmers to delay the adoption of robotic weed control. Our analysis shows the importance of jointly considering the interactions between weed ecology and economics in analyzing the incentives and effects of robotic weed management on weed resistance.

agricultural robotics↗

Comparison of metagenomes from fermentation of various agroindustrial residues suggests a common model of community organization

The liquid residue resulting from various agroindustrial processes is both rich in organic material and an attractive source to produce a variety of chemicals. Using microbial communities to produce chemicals from these liquid residues is an active area of research, but it is unclear how to deploy microbial communities to produce specific products from the different agroindustrial residues. To address this, we fed anaerobic bioreactors one of several agroindustrial residues (carbohydrate-rich lignocellulosic fermentation conversion residue, xylose, dairy manure hydrolysate, ultra-filtered milk permeate, and thin stillage from a starch bioethanol plant) and inoculated them with a microbial community from an acid-phase digester operated at the wastewater treatment plant in Madison, WI, United States. The bioreactors were monitored over a period of months and sampled to assess microbial community composition and extracellular fermentation products. We obtained metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) from the microbial communities in each bioreactor and performed comparative genomic analyses to identify common microorganisms, as well as any community members that were unique to each reactor. Collectively, we obtained a dataset of 217 non-redundant MAGs from these bioreactors. This metagenome assembled genome dataset was used to evaluate whether a specific microbial ecology model in which medium chain fatty acids (MCFAs) are simultaneously produced from intermediate products (e.g., lactic acid) and carbohydrates could be applicable to all fermentation systems, regardless of the feedstock. MAGs were classified using a multiclass classification machine learning algorithm into three groups, organisms fermenting the carbohydrates to intermediate products, organisms utilizing the intermediate products to produce MCFAs, and organisms producing MCFAs directly from carbohydrates. This analysis revealed common biological functions among the microbial communities in different bioreactors, and although different microorganisms were enriched depending on the agroindustrial residue tested, the results supported the conclusion that the microbial ecology model tested was appropriate to explain the MCFA production potential from all agricultural residues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An ecological niche model to predict the geographic distribution of Haemagogus janthinomys, Dyar, 1921 a yellow fever and Mayaro virus vector, in South America

Yellow fever virus (YFV) has a long history of impacting human health in South America. Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arbovirus of public health concern in the Neotropics and its full impact is yet unknown. Both YFV and MAYV are primarily maintained via a sylvatic transmission cycle but can be opportunistically transmitted to humans by the bites of infected forest dwelling Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, 1921. To better understand the potential risk of YFV and MAYV transmission to humans, a more detailed understanding of this vector species’ distribution is critical. This study compiled a comprehensive database of 177 unique Hg . janthinomys collection sites retrieved from the published literature, digitized museum specimens and publicly accessible mosquito surveillance data. Covariate analysis was performed to optimize a selection of environmental (topographic and bioclimatic) variables associated with predicting habitat suitability, and species distributions modelled across South America using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Our results indicate that suitable habitat for Hg . janthinomys can be found across forested regions of South America including the Atlantic forests and interior Amazon.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters

Abstract Climate change is having significant impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and carbon budgets, and in the Arctic may drive a shift from an historic carbon sink to a source. Large uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to forecast Arctic changes demonstrate the challenges of determining the timing and extent of this possible switch. This spread in model predictions can limit the ability of TBMs to guide management and policy decisions. One of the most influential sources of model uncertainty is model parameterization. Parameter uncertainty results in part from a mismatch between available data in databases and model needs. We identify that mismatch for three TBMs, DVM-DOS-TEM, SIPNET and ED2, and four databases with information on Arctic and boreal above- and belowground traits that may be applied to model parametrization. However, focusing solely on such data gaps can introduce biases towards simple models and ignores structural model uncertainty, another main source for model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the Arctic and boreal ecosystem that includes unquantified, and thus unmodeled, processes. We map model parameters to processes in the CLD and assess parameter vulnerability via the internal network structure. One important substructure, feed forward loops (FFLs), describe processes that are linked both directly and indirectly. When the model parameters are data-informed, these indirect processes might be implicitly included in the model, but if not, they have the potential to introduce significant model uncertainty. We find that the parameters describing the impact of local temperature on microbial activity are associated with a particularly high number of FFLs but are not constrained well by existing data. By employing ecological models of varying complexity, databases, and network methods, we identify the key parameters responsible for limited model accuracy. They should be prioritized for future data sampling to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing wildlife connectivity in land use planning: a case study with four-toed salamanders

Stable habitat connections that wildlife can safely traverse are essential to biodiversity conservation and healthy ecosystems. We developed high-resolution landscape connectivity models to predict resistance to movement by a threatened wetland-obligate amphibian, the four-toed salamander ( Hemidactylium scutatum ), and identified priority management areas on the 13,000-ha Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) from 2019 to 2022. We developed a resistance surface based on aerial light detection and ranging data (LiDAR), >30 years of field-based mapping of forest, hydrologic, and geologic features, and contemporary population surveys, alongside derived predictors at <1-m resolution. We then modeled predicted movement corridors using a circuit theory-based modeling approach. We worked closely with land management and natural resources personnel to integrate ecological modeling with broader land use priorities, monetary costs, and feasibility. We identified important terrestrial and aquatic areas on ORR and simulated management scenarios to promote stable connections for four-toed salamanders. This approach allowed us to narrow down a list of 438 potential habitat manipulation sites to 10 sites where open-bottomed culverts and buffers could be implemented. This smaller-scale restoration approach produced a similar increase in landscape connectivity while costing <20% of a larger-scale approach based on barrier removal. We successfully identified feasible, cost-effective management strategies that integrated knowledge from a variety of sources. In conclusion, we offer a strategy that permitted integration of wildlife management goals into infrastructure upgrades wherein wildlife was not an initial consideration.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using butterfly survey data to model habitat associations in urban developments

Abstract One approach for measuring the potential biodiversity in new urban construction projects is through ecological models that predict how wildlife will respond. For the United Kingdom, such models have only been developed for birds, but to maximise the extent to which models represent overall biodiversity, species from different indicator groups must be considered. Here, we assess this possibility for butterflies by combining citizen science survey data with high‐resolution digital maps. We derive detailed characteristics of urban landscapes around survey sites using previously established methods and quantify their relationship to counts of adults of 18 butterfly species in urban and peri‐urban settings. Higher butterfly counts were found when traversing urban sites with larger areas of semi‐natural grassland, other managed greenspaces and adjacent arable land. Most of the butterfly community were found to have negative relationships with highly built‐up or fragmented landscapes. We found high species‐specificity for different details of urban form, particularly in habitat elements such as gardens, vegetation around railways and grass verges. Policy implications . Improving biodiversity is now part of legislation governing new construction projects from England and Wales. However, predicting quantitative changes from hypothetical land‐use modifications remains challenging. Our models provide the foundation through which butterfly abundance could be integrated into an urban biodiversity assessment tool, providing species‐ and community‐level statistics to non‐specialists from the urban planning and design sector. This would allow them to hone configurations for built surfaces, private gardens, greenspaces and wildlife areas and assess their capacity to provide residents with the intended access to nature.

Cooper, Joseph E. J.↗

Virus diversity and activity is driven by snowmelt and host dynamics in a high-altitude watershed soil ecosystem

Background: Viruses impact nearly all organisms on Earth, including microbial communities and their associated biogeochemical processes. In soils, highly diverse viral communities have been identified, with a global distribution seemingly driven by multiple biotic and abiotic factors, especially soil temperature and moisture. However, our current understanding of the stability of soil viral communities across time and their response to strong seasonal changes in environmental parameters remains limited. Here, we investigated the diversity and activity of environmental soil DNA and RNA viruses, focusing especially on bacteriophages, across dynamics’ seasonal changes in a snow-dominated mountainous watershed by examining paired metagenomes and metatranscriptomes. Results: We identified a large number of DNA and RNA viruses taxonomically divergent from existing environmental viruses, including a significant proportion of fungal RNA viruses, and a large and unsuspected diversity of positive single-stranded RNA phages ( Leviviricetes ), highlighting the under-characterization of the global soil virosphere. Among these, we were able to distinguish subsets of active DNA and RNA phages that changed across seasons, consistent with a “seed-bank” viral community structure in which new phage activity, for example, replication and host lysis, is sequentially triggered by changes in environmental conditions. At the population level, we further identified virus-host dynamics matching two existing ecological models: “Kill-The-Winner” which proposes that lytic phages are actively infecting abundant bacteria, and “Piggyback-The-Persistent” which argues that when the host is growing slowly, it is more beneficial to remain in a dormant state. The former was associated with summer months of high and rapid microbial activity, and the latter with winter months of limited and slow host growth. Conclusion: Taken together, these results suggest that the high diversity of viruses in soils is likely associated with a broad range of host interaction types each adapted to specific host ecological strategies and environmental conditions. As our understanding of how environmental and host factors drive viral activity in soil ecosystems progresses, integrating these viral impacts in complex natural microbiome models will be key to accurately predict ecosystem biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights into the year-round vertical distribution of chlorophyll concentration in high-latitude Arctic Ocean: implications for primary production

Climate-induced rapid changes in the Arctic Ocean, such as decreasing sea ice extent and increasing water temperature, are altering nutrient and light availability, profoundly impacting primary producer growth. However, access to the high-latitude Arctic Ocean is limited, and satellite data are primarily available only during summer, making continuous in-situ data collection challenging. We collected year-round chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration data in high-latitude regions using a mooring system and performed a comparative analysis with reanalysis data. Unlike previous satellite-based studies, which typically rely on surface measurements, we used the annual vertical distribution of Chl-a. These data were applied to the vertically generalized production model to accurately estimate annual primary production. The moored Chl-a concentration data showed that phytoplankton exhibited a typical subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layer as sea ice retreated in June. Contrary to the gradually deepening SCM distribution predicted by model-based reanalysis data, the SCM layer persisted for approximately 4 months. This indicates that light and nutrient conditions within the SCM layer remained stable, sustaining continuous phytoplankton growth. Annual primary production, reflecting this vertical distribution of Chl-a concentration, was 6.85 gC m −2 yr −1 . This exceeded satellite-based estimates by at least two-fold, highlighting the significant underestimation of primary production by satellite approaches. Estimating primary production while accounting for the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and light is essential for improving ecological models to better understand carbon cycle and food web changes in the Arctic Ocean, with important implications for climate change predictions.

Arctic Ocean↗

Metabolic complexity drives divergence in microbial communities

Microbial communities are shaped by environmental metabolites, but the principles that govern whether different communities will converge or diverge in any given condition remain unknown, posing fundamental questions about the feasibility of microbiome engineering. Here, in this work, we studied the longitudinal assembly dynamics of a set of natural microbial communities grown in laboratory conditions of increasing metabolic complexity. We found that different microbial communities tend to become similar to each other when grown in metabolically simple conditions, but they diverge in composition as the metabolic complexity of the environment increases, a phenomenon we refer to as the divergence-complexity effect. A comparative analysis of these communities revealed that this divergence is driven by community diversity and by the assortment of specialist taxa capable of degrading complex metabolites. An ecological model of community dynamics indicates that the hierarchical structure of metabolism itself, where complex molecules are enzymatically degraded into progressively simpler ones that then participate in cross-feeding between community members, is necessary and sufficient to recapitulate our experimental observations. In addition to helping understand the role of the environment in community assembly, the divergence-complexity effect can provide insight into which environments support multiple community states, enabling the search for desired ecosystem functions towards microbiome engineering applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗

Earthworms significantly enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition: Insights into future soil carbon budgeting

How and what soil fauna influence the soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rate (Rs) and its temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) have been largely ignored, although this is a crucial matter, especially under the scenario of global change. Further, in this study, a novel approach was adopted with a continuous changing-temperature incubation (daytime, from 7 °C to 22 °C; nighttime, from 22 °C to 7 °C) with rapid and continuous measurement, to examine the effect of soil macrofauna (specifically, earthworms) on Rs and Q 10 with three densities (no addition, low density, and high density). According to the results, the earthworms accelerated Rs. Furthermore, Rs with earthworm addition had a symmetrical pattern during daytime and nighttime cycles, which is contrary to traditional soil incubation, with only soil microbe as asymmetrical. More importantly, earthworm addition increased Q 10 markedly, ranging from 48% to 67%. Overall, the findings highlight the pivotal role of earthworms as soil macrofauna that regulating soil carbon release, and their effects should be integrated into process-based ecological models in future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Hydrological Control on Soil Redox Condition and Carbon Loss of Coastal Wetland Under Sea-Level Rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Chen, Kewei [ORNL] (ORCID:000000032580514X)↗

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO 2

Theory predicts that rising CO 2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO 2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO 2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO 2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO 2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO 2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗