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Earthquake prediction is discussed from the point of view of a new development in geodesy known as space geodesy, which involves the use of extraterrestrial sources or reflectors to measure earth-based distances. Space geodesy is explained, and its relation to terrestrial geodesy is examined. The characteristics of earthquakes are reviewed, and the ways that they can be exploited by space geodesy to predict earthquakes is demonstrated.
Research conducted for determining the location of stations for measuring crustal dynamics and predicting earthquakes is discussed. Procedural aspects, the extraregional kinematic tendencies, and regional tectonic deformation mechanisms are described.
The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.
Geodetic laser system for earthquake prediction and engineering research
The Satellite Telemetry Earthquake Monitoring Program was started to evaluate the applicability of satellite relay telemetry in the collection of seismic data from a large number of dense seismograph clusters laid out along the major fault systems of western North America. Prototype clusters utilizing phone-line telemetry were then being installed by the National Center for Earthquake Research in 3 regions along the San Andreas fault in central California; and the experience of installing and operating the clusters and in reducing and analyzing the seismic data from them was to provide the raw materials for evaluation in the satellite relay telemetry project. The principal advantages of the satellite relay system over commercial telephone or microwave systems were: (1) it could be made less prone to massive failure during a major earthquake; (2) it could be extended readily into undeveloped regions; and (3) it could provide flexible, uniform communications over large sections of major global tectonic zones. Fundamental characteristics of a communications system to cope with the large volume of raw data collected by a short-period seismograph network are discussed.
During the past year, the grant supported research on several aspects of crustal deformation. The relation between earthquake displacements and fault dimensions was studied in an effort to find scaling laws that relate static parameters such as slip and stress drop to the dimensions of the rupture. Several implications of the static relations for the dynamic properties of earthquakes such as rupture velocity and dynamic stress drop were proposed. A theoretical basis for earthquake related phenomena associated with slow rupture growth or propagation, such as delayed multiple events, was developed using the stress intensity factor defined in fracture mechanics and experimental evidence from studies of crack growth by stress corrosion. Finally, extensive studies by Japanese geologists have established the offset across numerous faults in Japan over the last one hundred thousand years. These observations of intraplate faulting are being used to establish the spatial variations of the average strain rate of subregions in southern Japan.
From seismicity studies, evidence is presented for several aspects of plate-tectonic theory, including ideas of sea-floor spreading, transform faulting and underthrusting of the lithosphere in island arcs. Recent advances in seismic instrumentation, the use of computers in earthquake location, and the installation of local networks of instruments are shown to have vastly increased the data available for seismicity studies. It is pointed out that most of the world's earthquakes are located in very narrow zones along active plate margins and are intimately related to global processes in an extremely coherent manner. Important areas of uncertainty calling for further studies are also pointed out.
Projects studying different aspects of crustal deformation are discussed. The rifting process at the plate boundary in northern Iceland was investigated using combined seismic, tilt, and displacement measurements. Stresses acting on the Alpine fault, New Zealand, were modeled based on observations of regional variation in metamorphism and argon loss. The relationship between the stress pattern shown by intraplate seismicity and possible stresses on plates arising from litohspheric motion over the asthenosphere was investigated. Small earthquakes in Southern California were studied to determine if subregions of uniform strain release exist and if interaction occurs between faults.
Microearthquake studies of the southern section of the San Andreas fault system were conducted in order to elucidate the role of known but little studied complications in the fault system which could affect the SAFE measurement. Data reduction from microearthquake studies in Baja California, Mexico, was completed. In addition, styles of deformation on the Alpine fault in New Zealand and on the San Andreas fault were compared. Sections of these faults with comparable physical characteristics seem to deform in a similar manner, indicating that deformation style is controlled by certain fundamental relations and will continue in the future. The geology of eastern New Guinea is also discussed. Deformation in the area is proposed to be related to collision of a series of island arcs with central New Guinea, which is part of the Australian continent. Among other unusual properties, eastern New Guinea contains the highest anomaly of the gravimetrically determined geoid based on GEM 6 and surface gravity data.
Relatively little is known about the cavity between the Earth and the ionosphere, which opens opportunities for technological advances and unique ideas. One effective means to study this cavity is with extremely low frequency (ELF) antennas. Possible applications of these antennas are global weather prediction, earthquake prediction, planetary exploration, communication, wireless transmission of power, or even a free energy source. The superconducting quantum interference device SQUID) and the coil antenna are the two most acceptable receivers discovered for picking up ELF magnetic fields. Both antennas have the potential for size reduction, allowing them to be portable enough for access to space and even for personal ware. With improvements of these antennas and signal processing, insightful analysis of Schumann resonance (SR) can give the science community a band of radio frequency (RF) signals for improving life here on Earth and exploring beyond.
A number of observers claim to have seen thermal anomalies prior to earthquakes, but subsequent analysis by others has failed to produce similar findings. What exactly are these anomalies? Might they be useful for earthquake prediction? It is the purpose of this study to determine if thermal anomalies can be found in association with known earthquakes by systematically co-registering weather satellite images at the sub-pixel level and then determining if statistically significant responses occurred prior to the earthquake event. A new set of automatic co-registration procedures was developed for this task to accommodate all properties particular to weather satellite observations taken at night, and it relies on the general condition that the ground cools after sunset. Using these procedures, we can produce a set of temperature-sensitive satellite images for each of five selected earthquakes (Algeria 2003; Bhuj, India 2001; Izmit, Turkey 2001; Kunlun Shan, Tibet 2001; Turkmenistan 2000) and thus more effectively investigate heating trends close to the epicenters a few hours prior to the earthquake events. This study will lay tracks for further work in earthquake prediction and provoke the question of the exact nature of the thermal anomalies.
An analysis of geodetic data in the vicinity of the Crustal Dynamics Program (CDP) site at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VNDN) is presented. The utility of space-geodetic data in the monitoring of transient strains associated with earthquakes in tectonically active areas like California is investigated. Particular interest is in the possibility that space-geodetic methods may be able to provide critical new data on deformations precursory to large seismic events. Although earthquake precursory phenomena are not well understood, the monitoring of small strains in the vicinity of active faults is a promising technique for studying the mechanisms that nucleate large earthquakes and, ultimately, for earthquake prediction. Space-geodetic techniques are now capable of measuring baselines of tens to hundreds of kilometers with a precision of a few parts in 108. Within the next few years, it will be possible to record and analyze large-scale strain variations with this precision continuously in real time. Thus, space-geodetic techniques may become tools for earthquake prediction. In anticipation of this capability, several questions related to the temporal and spatial scales associated with subseismic deformation transients are examined.
The implications of currently available leveling data on understanding the crustal dynamics of the continental United States are investigated. Neotectonic deformation, near surface movements, systematic errors in releveling measurements, and the implications of this information for earthquake prediction are described. Vertical crustal movements in the vicinity of the 1931 Valentine, Texas, earthquake which may represent coseismic deformation are investigated. The detection of vertical fault displacements by precise leveling in western Kentucky is reported. An empirical basis for defining releveling anomalies and its implications for crustal deformation in southern California is presented. Releveling measurements in the eastern United States and their meaning in the context of possible crustal deformation, including uplift of the Appalachian Mountains, eastward tilting of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, and apparent movements associated with a number of structural features along the east coast, are reported.
Geoscience applications of active microwave remote sensing systems are examined. Major application areas for the system include: (1) exploration of petroleum, mineral, and ground water resources, (2) mapping surface and structural features, (3) terrain analysis, both morphometric and genetic, (4) application in civil works, and (5) application in the areas of earthquake prediction and crustal movements. Although the success of radar surveys has not been widely publicized, they have been used as a prime reconnaissance data base for mineral exploration and land-use evaluation in areas where photography cannot be obtained.
The Clogeos (Close-Grid Geodynamic Measurement System) concept, a complete range or range-rate measurement terminal installed in a satellite in a near-polar orbit with a network of relatively simple transponders or retro-reflectors on the ground at intervals of 0.1 to 10 km was reviewed. The distortion of the grid was measured in three dimensions to accuracies of + or - 1 cm with important applications to geodynamics, glaciology, and geodesy. User requirements are considered, and a typical grid, designed for earthquake prediction, was laid out along the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaceras faults in southern California. The sensitivity of both range and range-rate measurements to small grid motions was determined by a simplified model. Variables in the model are satellite altitude and elevation angle plus grid displacements in latitude, and height.
Tilt and strain observations are importantly (pathologically at the 100%, typically at the few 10s% level) affected by cavities, topography, and geological inhomogenities; gravity observation are practically unaffected. The traditional earth tide observatory and abandoned mine or tunnel is a very poor place to measure body tides because of the complicated cavities, topography and geology. Instead, the ideal site for observing the body tide is in flat terrain with horizontally layered, mechanically homogeneous geology. Strain will be measured with long surface- or trench-mounted laser strain meters and tilt with long, surface- or trench mounted liquid levels, or with borehole tiltmeters. Horizontal geological discontinuities can produce large perturbations of the tilt and strain tides, and these perturbations, using the known homogeneous tidal strains and tilts, can be used in exploring local structure in favorable cases and, through possible time variations of tidal admittances, in predicting earthquakes.
By 1999 operational space systems will be implemented routinely on a worldwide scale in many areas vital to human survival and life quality. Geosynchronous-based monitoring and observation will be extensively used. The Shuttle era will bring in the capability to allow monitoring and identifying pollution sources which fail to stay within required limits. Remotely sensed data over land masses will provide needed facts on renewable and nonrenewable earth resources. New instruments and techniques will have been developed to provide geologists with clues to the declining number of deposits of fuels and minerals. Also, practical methods for predicting earthquakes will have been elaborated by 1999. Communications will see implementation of many of the technological goals of 1978.
A system is described for use in detecting earth crustal deformation using an RF interferometer technique for such purposes as earthquake predictive research and eventual operational predictions. A lunar based RF transmission or transmissions from earth orbiting satellites are received at two locations on Earth, and a precise time dependent phase measurement is made of the RF signal as received at the two locations to determine two or three spatial parameters of the antenna relative positions. The received data are precisely time tagged and land-line routed to a central station for real-time phase comparison and analysis. By monitoring the antenna relative positions over an extended period of months or years, crustal deformation of the Earth can be detected.