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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Parameter Observation and Detection of Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas

The recent large earthquakes (M9.0 Tohoku, 03/2011; M7.0 Haiti, 01/2010; M6.7 L Aquila, 04/2008; and M7.9 Wenchuan 05/2008) have renewed interest in pre-anomalous seismic signals associated with them. Recent workshops (DEMETER 2006, 2011 and VESTO 2009 ) have shown that there were precursory atmospheric /ionospheric signals observed in space prior to these events. Our initial results indicate that no single pre-earthquake observation (seismic, magnetic field, electric field, thermal infrared [TIR], or GPS/TEC) can provide a consistent and successful global scale early warning. This is most likely due to complexity and chaotic nature of earthquakes and the limitation in existing ground (temporal/spatial) and global satellite observations. In this study we analyze preseismic temporal and spatial variations (gas/radon counting rate, atmospheric temperature and humidity change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) which we propose occur before the onset of major earthquakes:. We propose an Integrated Space -- Terrestrial Framework (ISTF), as a different approach for revealing pre-earthquake phenomena in seismically active areas. ISTF is a sensor web of a coordinated observation infrastructure employing multiple sensors that are distributed on one or more platforms; data from satellite sensors (Terra, Aqua, POES, DEMETER and others) and ground observations, e.g., Global Positioning System, Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). As a theoretical guide we use the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model to explain the generation of multiple earthquake precursors. Using our methodology, we evaluated retrospectively the signals preceding the most devastated earthquakes during 2005-2011. We observed a correlation between both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these earthquakes. The second phase of our validation include systematic retrospective analysis for more than 100 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. Calculated false alarm ratio for the for the same month over the entire period of analysis (2003-2009) is less than 10% and was d as the earthquakes. The commonalities in detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies show that they may exist over both land and sea in regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries) Our results indicate that the ISTF model could provide a capability to observe pre-earthquake atmospheric/ionospheric signals by combining this information into a common framework.

Ouzounov, D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Coherent tilt signals observed in the Shumagin seismic gap Detection of time-dependent subduction at depth?

Repeated surveys of short level lines in the Shumagin Islands, Alaska, reveal coherent tilt signals associated with subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the North American plate in the Shumagin seismic gap. Ten years of steady tilt down toward the trench is interrupted during 1978-1980 by a rapid episode of reverse tilt. The 'normal' tilt represents surface deformation as subduction occurs, with the plate boundary locked to at least 60 km depth. Using all available tilt, sea level, and seismic data, the tilt reversal is interpreted as due to an episodic reverse slip of about 80 cm magnitude on the plate boundary between about 70 km and 20 km depth, downdip from the main seismogenic zone, which remains locked. This event causes an increase of stress on the locked main thrust zone. It is speculated that such events may be a regular process at subduction zones, that great plate boundary earthquakes may be more common during their occurrence, and that their onset may be detectable early enough to give warning of an increase in probability for the occurrence of a great earthquake.

Beavan, J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Tsunami Early-Warning CubeSat Design Reference Mission (DRM)

Global constellation for near real-time detection, characterization, and warning of dangerous tsunami; detection and evaluation of large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; and study and continuous monitoring of the ionosphere and climate change.

Tsunami, GNSS-R, CubeSats, Ionosphere, Climate Cha↗
NASA NTRS2021

Capturing the Footprints of Ground Motion in the Spatial Distribution of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

The coupled effect of earthquakes and rainfall is rarely investigated in landslide susceptibility assessments although it could be crucial to predict landslide occurrences. This is even more critical in the context of early warning systems and especially in cases of extreme precipitation regimes in post-seismic conditions, where the rock masses are already damaged due to the ground shaking. Here, we investigate this concept by accounting for the legacy of seismic ground shaking in rainfall-induced landslide (RFIL) scenarios. We do this to identify whether ground shaking plays a role in the susceptibility to post-seismic rainfall-induced landslides and to identify whether this legacy effect persists through time. With this motivation, we use binary logistic regression and examine time series of landslides associated with four earthquakes occurred in Indonesia: 2012 Sulawesi (M(sub w) = 6.3), 2016 Reuleut (M(sub w) = 6.5), 2017 Kasiguncu (M(sub w) = 6.6) and 2018 Palu (M(sub w) = 7.5) earthquakes. The dataset includes one co-seismic and three post-seismic landslide inventories for each earthquake. We use the peak ground acceleration map of the last strongest earthquake in each case as a predisposing factor of landslides representing the effect of ground shaking. We observe that, at least for the study areas under consideration and in a probabilistic context, the earthquake legacy contributes to increase the post-seismic RFIL susceptibility. This positive contribution decays through time. Specifically, we observe that ground motion is a significant predisposing factor controlling the spatial distribution of RFIL in the post-seismic period 110 days after an earthquake. We also show that this effect dissipates within 3 years at most.

Landslides↗
NASA NTRS2007

Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

Block, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2004

Progress in Understanding the Pre-Earthquake Associated Events by Analyzing IR Satellite Data

We present latest result in understanding the potential relationship between tectonic stress, electro-chemical and thermodynamic processes in the Earths crust and atmosphere with an increase in IR flux as a potential signature of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that are related to earthquake activity, either pre-, co- or post seismic. Thermal infra-red (TIR) surveys performed by the polar orbiting (NOAA/AVHRR MODIS) and geosynchronous weather satellites (GOES, METEOSAT) gave an indication of the appearance (from days to weeks before the event) of "anomalous" space-time TIR transients that are associated with the location (epicenter and local tectonic structures) and time of a number of major earthquakes with M>5 and focal depths less than 50km. We analyzed broad category of associated pre-earthquake events, which provided evidence for changes in surface temperature, surface latent heat flux, chlorophyll concentrations, soil moisture, brightness temperature, emissivity of surface, water vapour in the atmosphere prior to the earthquakes occurred in Algeria, India, Iran, Italy, Mexico and Japan. The cause of such anomalies has been mainly related to the change of near-surface thermal properties due to complex lithosphere-hydrosphere-atmospheric interactions. As final results we present examples from the most recent (2000-2004) worldwide strong earthquakes and the techniques used to capture the tracks of EM emission mid-IR anomalies and a methodology for practical future use of such phenomena in the early warning systems.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗
NASA NTRS1973

Establishment, test and evaluation of a prototype volcano surveillance system

A volcano-surveillance system utilizing 23 multilevel earthquake counters and 6 biaxial borehole tiltmeters is being installed and tested on 15 volcanoes in 4 States and 4 foreign countries. The purpose of this system is to give early warning when apparently dormant volcanoes are becoming active. The data are relayed through the ERTS-Data Collection System to Menlo Park for analysis. Installation was completed in 1972 on the volcanoes St. Augustine and Iliamna in Alaska, Kilauea in Hawaii, Baker, Rainier and St. Helens in Washington, Lassen in California, and at a site near Reykjavik, Iceland. Installation continues and should be completed in April 1973 on the volcanoes Santiaguito, Fuego, Agua and Pacaya in Guatemala, Izalco in El Salvador and San Cristobal, Telica and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua.

Ward, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A new method for monitoring global volcanic activity

The ERTS Data Collection System makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data rapidly to one central office for analysis. While prediction of specific eruptions is still an evasive goal, early warning of a reawakening of quiescent volcanoes is now a distinct possibility. A prototypical global volcano surveillance system was established under the ERTS program. Instruments were installed in cooperation with local scientists on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. The sensors include 19 seismic event counters that count four different sizes of earthquakes and six biaxial borehole tiltmeters that measure ground tilt with a resolution of 1 microradian. Only seismic and tilt data are collected because these have been shown in the past to indicate most reliably the level of volcano activity at many different volcanoes. Furthermore, these parameters can be measured relatively easily with new instrumentation.

Ward, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both electronics and hydraulics, these are effectively the brains of the blowout preventer. No one fixed it, he alleges, they just shut it down and relied on the other control pod -an act deemed unacceptable by petroleum expert, Tad Patzek, at the University of Texas. The US Congress has identified numerous other problems with the blowout preventer, including design problems and unexpected modifications.

Fifrey, Priscilla↗
NASA NTRS2010

Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements

Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes ~ 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.

Galvan, David A.↗