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DOE OSTI2020

The effects of earth model uncertainty on the inversion of seismic data for seismic source functions

SUMMARY We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of earth model uncertainty on the estimation of the seismic source time functions that correspond to the six independent components of the point source seismic moment tensor. Specifically, we invert synthetic data using Green’s functions estimated from a suite of earth models that contain stochastic density and seismic wave-speed heterogeneities. We find that the primary effect of earth model uncertainty on the data is that the amplitude of the first-arriving seismic energy is reduced, and that this amplitude reduction is proportional to the magnitude of the stochastic heterogeneities. Also, we find that the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions can be under- or overestimated, depending on the stochastic earth model used to create the data. This effect is totally unpredictable, meaning that uncertainty in the earth model can lead to unpredictable biases in the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

High Order Accurate Finite Difference Modeling of Seismo-Acoustic Wave Propagation in a Moving Atmosphere and a Heterogeneous Earth Model Coupled Across a Realistic Topography

Here, we develop a numerical method for simultaneously simulating acoustic waves in a realistic moving atmosphere and seismic waves in a heterogeneous earth model, where the motions are coupled across a realistic topography. We model acoustic wave propagation by solving the linearized Euler equations of compressible fluid mechanics. The seismic waves are modeled by the elastic wave equation in a heterogeneous anisotropic material. The motion is coupled by imposing continuity of normal velocity and normal stresses across the topographic interface. Realistic topography is resolved on a curvilinear grid that follows the interface. The governing equations are discretized using high order accurate finite difference methods that satisfy the principle of summation by parts. We apply the energy method to derive the discrete interface conditions and to show that the coupled discretization is stable. The implementation is verified by numerical experiments, and we demonstrate a simulation of coupled wave propagation in a windy atmosphere and a realistic earth model with non-planar topography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stanford Thermal Earth Model for the Conterminous United States

Provided here are various forms of the Stanford Thermal Earth Model, as well as the data and methods used for its creation. The predictions produced by this model were visualized in two-dimensional spatial maps across the modeled depths (0-7 km) for the conterminous United States. The thermal earth model is made available as an application programming interface (API) and as feature layers on ArcGIS, which are both provided via links below. A data-driven spatial interpolation algorithm based on physics-informed graph neural networks was used to develop these national temperature-at-depth maps. The model satisfied the three-dimensional heat conduction law by predicting subsurface temperature, surface heat flow, and rock thermal conductivity. Many physical quantities, including bottomhole temperature, depth, geographic coordinates, elevation, sediment thickness, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly, gamma-ray flux of radioactive elements, seismicity, and electric conductivity were used as model inputs. Surface heat flow, temperature, and thermal conductivity predictions were constructed for depths of 0-7 km at an interval of 1 km with spatial resolution of 18 km2 per grid cell. The model showed superior temperature, surface heat flow and thermal conductivity mean absolute errors of 4.8C, 8.1 mW/m2 and 0.07 W/(C-m), respectively..

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Collaborative Seismic Earth Model: Generation 2

Geological interpretations, earthquake source inversions and ground motion modeling, among other applications, require models that jointly resolve crustal and mantle structure. With the second generation of the Collaborative Seismic Earth Model (CSEM2), we present a global multi-resolution tomographic Earth model that serves this purpose. The model evolves through successive regional- and global-scale refinements. While the first generation aggregated regional models, with this study, we ensure consistency between all individual submodels, resulting in a model that accurately explains wave propagation across scales. Recent regional tomographic models were incorporated, comprising continental-scale inversions for Asia and Africa, as well as regional inversions for the Western US, Central Andes, Iran, and Southeast Asia. Across all regional refinements, over 793,000 source-receiver pairs contributed. Moreover, the long-wavelength Earth model (LOWE) introduces large-scale structures outside of pre-existing local refinements. A full-waveform inversion for global anisotropic P-and S-wave speed structure over a total of 194 iterations with a minimum period of 50 s on a large data set of 1 hr of waveform data from 2,423 earthquakes and over 6 million source-receiver pairs ensures that regional updates in the crust and uppermost mantle translate into updates of deeper, global-scale structure. To test the performance of CSEM2, we evaluate waveform fits between observed and synthetic seismograms at 50 s for an independent data set on the global scale, and on the regional scale for lower periods. We accurately simulate waveforms within and across regional refinements, maintaining the original resolution of the submodels embedded in the global framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Utah FORGE: Earth Model Mesh Data for Selected Surfaces

This submission contains a number of data files with vertices of meshed/interpolated surfaces used in the Phase 2B earth model. Examples include land surface (based on 10-meter DEM), the granitoid-basin fill contact, several faults, and also interpolated temperature isosurfaces for 175 and 225 degrees C. All data are georeferenced to UTM, zone 12N, NAD 83, NAVD 88.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

EGS Collab Experiment 2: Earth Model Datasets

The EGS Collab Project performed a series of tests to increase the understanding the response of crystalline rock mass to stimulations and fluid circulation to efficiently implement enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technologies. The EGS Collab team created two underground testbeds at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead SD at a depth of approximately 1.5 km (4850 level) and 1.25 km (4100 level) to examine hydraulic fracturing and hydraulic shearing, respectively. Experiment 2 was designed to examine hydraulic shearing and fluid flow in testbed 2 in amphibolite under a controlled set of stress and fracture conditions. This document summarizes the general geology, natural fractures, and conceptual model(s) of stimulated fracture networks in the testbed 2. The dataset package included here are input and output products associated with Earth Models for the EGS Collab Testbed 2. The earth model datasets are included in the whole package (project) in Leapfrog file format. Also, datasets are given in primary input file format (csv).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE ELASTICITY TO THE PRECESSION OF A TWO-LAYER EARTH MODEL

We focus on the updating of a specific contribution to the precession of the equator in longitude, usually named as “second order.” It stems from the crossing of certain terms of the lunisolar gravitational potential. The IAU2006 precession theory assigns it the value of −46.8 mas/cy that was derived for a rigid Earth model. Instead of that model, we consider a two-layer Earth composed of an elastic mantle and a liquid core, working out the problem within the Hamiltonian framework developed by Getino and Ferrándiz. The targeted effect is obtained without further simplifying assumptions through Hori’s canonical perturbation method applied up to the second order of perturbation. On account of using a more realistic Earth model, the revised value of the second-order contribution is significantly changed and reaches −55.29 mas/cy. That variation of the second-order contribution is larger than other contributions included in IAU2006. It must be compensated with an increase of −8.51 mas/cy in the value of the lunisolar first-order component p{sub A}{sup ′} of the precession of the equator rate, which is derived from the total rate by subtracting the remaining contributions accounted for in IAU2006 precession. The updating of the second-order contribution implies that the p{sub A}{sup ′} parameter has to be changed, from 5040684.593 to 5040693.104 mas/cy in absence of potential revisions of other contributions. It entails a proportional variation of Earth’s dynamical ellipticity H{sub d}, for which the estimation associated with IAU2006, 0.00327379448, should be updated to 0.00327380001, about 1.7 ppm larger.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

3D orthorhombic earth model effects on seismic source characterization

Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models

Earth system models (ESMs) are the gold standard for producing future projections of climate change, but running them is difficult and costly, and thus researchers are generally limited to a small selection of scenarios. This paper presents a technique for detailed emulation of the Earth system model (ESM) temperature output, based on the construction of a deterministic model for the mean response to global temperature. The residuals between the mean response and the ESM output temperature fields are used to construct variability fields that are added to the mean response to produce the final product. The method produces grid-level output with spatially and temporally coherent variability. Output fields include random components, so the system may be run as many times as necessary to produce large ensembles of fields for applications that require them. We introduce the method, show example outputs, and present statistical verification that it reproduces the ESM properties it is intended to capture. This method, available as an open-source R package, should be useful in the study of climate variability and its contribution to uncertainties in the interactions between human and Earth systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation in Earth System Models

Earth system models (ESMs) bridge observationally based and theoretical understanding of the Earth system. They are among the most often used tools to study a variety of questions related to variability and changes in Earth’s climate. For many applications, ESMs must realistically simulate observed large-scale precipitation patterns and seasonal cycles that have a multitude of societal and national security implications. Despite steady improvement in the simulation of precipitation, model errors in many aspects of precipitation characteristics limit the use of ESMs both in understanding Earth system variability and change and for decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

EGS Collab Testbed 1 Earth Model Input Files

The EGS Collab is conducting experiments in hydraulic fracturing at a depth of 1.5 km in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) on the 4850 Level. A total of eight ~60m-long subhorizontal boreholes were drilled at that depth on the western rib of the West Access Drift. Six of these holes are used for geophysical monitoring, one is used for hydraulic fracturing and the remaining hole was designed as a production borehole. In addition to these eight boreholes, 4 5-m Jack leg boreholes were drilled for housing geophones. This submission package includes various data type that were assembled to create Earth Models of the testbed. Note: The coordinate system used is local Homestake Mine Coordinate (HMC) system from an old gold mine that was in operation for over 100 years.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating full-waveform inversion using source stacking: synthetic experiments at the global scale in a realistic 3-D earth model

SUMMARY The spectral element method is currently the method of choice for computing accurate synthetic seismic wavefields in realistic 3-D earth models at the global scale. However, it requires significantly more computational time, compared to normal mode-based approximate methods. Source stacking, whereby multiple earthquake sources are aligned on their origin time and simultaneously triggered, can reduce the computational costs by several orders of magnitude. We present the results of synthetic tests performed on a realistic radially anisotropic 3-D model, slightly modified from model SEMUCB-WM1 with three component synthetic waveform ‘data’ for a duration of 10 000 s, and filtered at periods longer than 60 s, for a set of 273 events and 515 stations. We consider two definitions of the misfit function, one based on the stacked records at individual stations and another based on station-pair cross-correlations of the stacked records. The inverse step is performed using a Gauss–Newton approach where the gradient and Hessian are computed using normal mode perturbation theory. We investigate the retrieval of radially anisotropic long wavelength structure in the upper mantle in the depth range 100–800 km, after fixing the crust and uppermost mantle structure constrained by fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion data. The results show good performance using both definitions of the misfit function, even in the presence of realistic noise, with degraded amplitudes of lateral variations in the anisotropic parameter ξ. Interestingly, we show that we can retrieve the long wavelength structure in the upper mantle, when considering one or the other of three portions of the cross-correlation time series, corresponding to where we expect the energy from surface wave overtone, fundamental mode or a mixture of the two to be dominant, respectively. We also considered the issue of missing data, by randomly removing a successively larger proportion of the available synthetic data. We replace the missing data by synthetics computed in the current 3-D model using normal mode perturbation theory. The inversion results degrade with the proportion of missing data, especially for ξ, and we find that a data availability of 45 per cent or more leads to acceptable results. We also present a strategy for grouping events and stations to minimize the number of missing data in each group. This leads to an increased number of computations but can be significantly more efficient than conventional single-event-at-a-time inversion. We apply the grouping strategy to a real picking scenario, and show promising resolution capability despite the use of fewer waveforms and uneven ray path distribution. Source stacking approach can be used to rapidly obtain a starting 3-D model for more conventional full-waveform inversion at higher resolution, and to investigate assumptions made in the inversion, such as trade-offs between isotropic, anisotropic or anelastic structure, different model parametrizations or how crustal structure is accounted for.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hillslope Hydrology in Global Change Research and Earth System Modeling

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope-scale terrain structures that have been long recognized by hydrologists as the fundamental organizers of water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes. Here, we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid-level water, energy and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the traditional one-dimensional (1D), vertical, 2-3m deep, and free-draining soil hydrology in current ESM land models, we argue that 3D, lateral ridge-to-valley flow through shallow and deep paths, and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes, are the top two basic, long-acknowledged, and readily quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and hence vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We argue that these two processes will be most consequential where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that if they are implemented in ESM land models, they will increase continental water storage and residence time, buffering land ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited view of the subsurface, where water is stored to support vegetation and released to stream baseflow and aquatic ecosystems. We conclude with a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.

Fan, Ying↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global 1km Land Surface Parameters for Kilometer-Scale Earth System Modeling

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (k-scale). However, the surface parameters for Land Surface Models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSMs and ESMs modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The data is published via PNNL DataHub.

Li, Lingcheng↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (“k-scale”). However, the surface parameters for land surface models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse-resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. Differences between the newly developed 1 km land surface parameters and conventional parameters emphasize their potential for higher accuracy due to the incorporation of the most advanced and latest data sources. To demonstrate the capability of these new parameters, we conducted 1 km resolution simulations using the E3SM Land Model version 2 (ELM2) over the contiguous United States. Our results demonstrate that land surface parameters contribute to significant spatial heterogeneity in ELM2 simulations of soil moisture, latent heat, emitted longwave radiation, and absorbed shortwave radiation. On average, about 31 % to 54 % of spatial information is lost by upscaling the 1 km ELM2 simulations to a 12 km resolution. Using eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) methods, the influential factors driving the spatial variability and spatial information loss of ELM2 simulations were identified, highlighting the substantial impact of the spatial variability and information loss of various land surface parameters, as well as the mean climate conditions. The comparison against four benchmark datasets indicates that ELM generally performs well in simulating soil moisture and surface energy fluxes. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSM and ESM modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The 1 km land surface parameters are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10815170 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

GeoTess: A generalized Earth model software utility

GeoTess is a model parameterization and software support library that manages the construction, population, storage, and interrogation of data stored in 2D and 3D Earth models. Here, the software is available in Java and C++, with a C interface to the C++ library.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗