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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization-Based Dynamic Voltage Support of Microgrids Using Energy Storage Systems

A microgrid network is characterized by a high R/X ratio, making the voltage more sensitive to active power changes compared to bulk power systems, where the voltage is regulated primarily by reactive power. Due to its sensitivity, voltage control approaches for microgrids should also consider the active power input coupling, making it very different from conventional power systems. Additionally, as the energy costs associated with active and reactive powers are different and the operational conditions of microgrids connected to active distribution systems vary over time, the ideal controller to provide voltage support must be flexible enough to handle these technical and operational constraints. This paper proposes a model predictive control approach to provide dynamic voltage support using energy storage systems. This approach uses a simplified predictive model of the system to solve the model predictive control problem. By proper selection of model predictive control weighting parameters, the quality of service provided can be adjusted to achieve the desired performance. A simulation study in MATLAB/Simulink validates the proposed approach for the Cordova, Alaska microgrid. Results show that the performance of the voltage support can be adjusted depending on the choice of weight and constraints of the controller.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Eigenenergies from Quantum Dynamics: A Unified Noise-Resilient Measurement-Driven Approach

Ground state energy estimation in physical, chemical, and materials sciences is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. In this work, we introduce a new hybrid approach that finds the eigenenergies by collecting real-time measurements and post-processing them using the machinery of dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). From the perspective of quantum dynamics, we establish that our approach can be formally understood as a stable variational method on the function space of observables available from a quantum many-body system. We also provide strong theoretical and numerical evidence that our method converges rapidly even in the presence of a large degree of perturbative noise, and show that the method bears an isomorphism to robust matrix factorization methods developed independently across various scientific communities. Our numerical benchmarks on spin and molecular systems demonstrate an accelerated convergence and a favorable resource reduction over state-of-the-art algorithms. The DMD-centric strategy can systematically mitigate noise and stands out as a leading hybrid quantum-classical eigensolver.

Shen, Yizhi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2026

BMINN: Learning chemical potentials and parameters from voltage data for multi-phase battery modeling

Free-energy landscapes and chemical potentials govern the dynamics of phase transitions, transport, and stability in functional materials, yet they remain experimentally inaccessible under realistic operating conditions. Here we introduce a Bayesian model-integrated neural network (BMINN) that embeds physics-based formulations of non-autonomous partial differential-algebraic equations into probabilistic learning. This approach reconstructs hidden thermodynamics directly from macroscopic current-voltage data, providing quantitative access to metastable states, staging transitions, and energy barriers without synchrotron probes. Demonstrated on lithium-graphite electrodes, BMINN recovers full Gibbs free-energy landscapes with fidelity validated against operando X-ray diffraction. The framework generalizes across dynamical regimes, enabling accurate voltage prediction, internal state estimation, and inference of governing parameters. Beyond batteries, BMINN exemplifies a broadly applicable strategy for learning missing physics in multiphase, non-equilibrium systems, offering a new pathway to uncover hidden thermodynamic functions across condensed matter and materials physics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design of Experiments for Dynamic Test Runs in Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Pilot Plants

Test runs in the pilot plants consume significant resources, and therefore, the learning from test runs should be maximized. Test runs conducted in the pilot plants are often steady state. It takes several hours for reaching steady-state in the pilot plants, and thus, the duration of the test runs needs to be long even for collecting few steady-state data points. On the other hand, a large number of measurements can be collected through dynamic test runs in a short span of time. This paper presents a systematic design of dynamic experiments (DoDEs) for identifiability of model parameters, which is achieved by persistently exciting the inputs signals. A pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) is designed as the input signal for DoDE due to its efficiency in obtaining sufficient spectral content. However, due to the long sequence size of the PRBS signal, a Schroeder-phase input signal, which is a multisine signal, is also designed. Tests for both types of signals are run in the Pilot Solvent Test Unit (PSTU) at the National Carbon Capture Center in Wilsonville, Alabama. The transient data are used to solve dynamic data reconciliation and parameter estimation problem. The estimated parameters are found to be not only superior to those estimated from using data collected from hundreds of steady-state test runs in a nonreactive (air–water) system, but the parameters could be estimated by using the dynamic data collected for about 24 h from the pilot plant for the MEA-H 2 O–CO 2 system.

CO2 capture↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Sea State Estimation for Wave Energy Converter Control via Machine Learning

Wave energy converters (WECs) harness the untapped power of ocean waves to generate renewable energy, offering a promising solution to sustainable energy. An optimal WEC control strategy is essential to maximize power capture that dynamically adjusts system parameters in response to rapidly changing sea states. This study presents a novel control approach that leverages neural networks to estimate sea states from onboard WEC measurements such as position, velocity, and force. Using a point absorber WEC device as a test platform, our proposed approach estimates sea states in real-time and subsequently adjusts PID controller gains to maximize energy extraction. Simulation results across diverse sea conditions demonstrate that our strategy eliminates the need for external wave monitoring equipment while maintaining power capture efficiency. The results show that our neural network-based control technique can improve power capture by 25.6% while significantly reducing system complexity. This approach offers a practical alternative for WEC deployments where direct wave measurements are either infeasible or cost prohibitive.

PIDcontrol↗
DOE OSTI2025

Order conditions for nonlinearly partitioned Runge-Kutta methods

Recently, a new class of nonlinearly partitioned Runge–Kutta (NPRK) methods was proposed for nonlinearly partitioned systems of autonomous ordinary differential equations y' = F(y, y). The target class of problems are those in which different scales, stiffnesses, or physics are coupled in a nonlinear way, wherein the desired partition cannot be written in a classical additive or component-wise fashion. Here we use a rooted-tree analysis to derive full-order conditions for NPRKM methods, where M denotes the number of nonlinear partitions. Due to the nonlinear coupling and thereby the mixed product differentials, it turns out that the standard node-colored rooted tree analysis used in analyzing ODE integrators does not naturally apply. Instead we develop a new edge-colored rooted-tree framework to address the nonlinear coupling. The resulting order conditions are enumerated, are provided directly for up to fourth order with M = 2 and third order with M = 3, and are related to existing order conditions of additive and partitioned RK methods. We conclude with an example that shows how the nonlinear order conditions can be used to obtain an embedded estimate of the state-dependent nonlinear coupling strength in a dynamical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-Varying Output Delay Compensation-A Model-Free Approach and its Application on Cooperative On-Ramp Merging

This paper presents a model-free approach to compensate for time-varying output delay in networked control systems. The proposed architecture combines a model-free observer and the Smith predictor. The model-free observer estimates the current state while handling modeling errors and uncertainties of the system. The Smith predictor moves the effect of time delay outside the control closed-loop using the estimated delayed output and the actual output of the plant. The proposed method is applied to a cooperative on-ramp merging problem. First, an ultra-local model predictive control is implemented to provide a computationally efficient online speed planner agnostic to the vehicle dynamics. After that, a model-free observer is designed to estimate the current state. Finally, the proposed architecture is tested against a time-varying output delay with an upper bound of 200 milliseconds. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with improved tracking of intervehicle distance.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tuning Shinkarev’s Bicycle: Separating the Parallel Cycles of Photosystem II Using Empirical Wavelet Transform

The oxygen-evolving complex (OEC) of Photosystem II (PSII) catalyzes light-driven water oxidation, a process necessary to sustain Earth’s atmospheric oxygen. Oxygen yields measured during single-turnover flash sequences exhibit period-four oscillations, which form the basis of the Joliot–Kok (S-state) model. However, when the oscillations of other processes contribute to the measured oxygen yield, fitting methods can conflate these signals and distort estimates of inefficiencies and initial S-state populations. To address this, we applied the empirical wavelet transform (EWT) as a model-independent method to separate overlapping oscillators and capture damping dynamics that are not well represented in Fourier analysis. We tested this framework on polarographic flash-oxygen traces from both our Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 thylakoid membrane preparations and archival datasets on Chlorella and isolated chloroplasts. EWT consistently resolves the expected period-four component alongside a distinct binary oscillation. Simulations suggest that fitting this isolated period-four signal recovers VZAD parameters more accurately than analysis of raw traces, yielding different estimates for S-state distributions and transition probabilities. Notably, this binary oscillation aligns closely with semiquinone dynamics predicted solely from period-four fit parameters. These findings indicate that EWT can effectively distinguish complex signals in oxygen evolution, offering a framework potentially applicable to other spectroscopic probes of the S-state cycle.

Ferrari, Nicholas [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗
DOE OSTI2026

Noise-canceling quantum feedback: Non-Hermitian dynamics with applications to state preparation and magic state distillation

Time-continuous quantum measurement allows for the tracking of a quantum system in real time via sequences of short, and individually weak, measurement intervals. Such measurements are necessarily invasive, imparting backaction to the system, and allowing the observer to update their state estimate based on stochastic measurement outcomes. Feedback control then involves real-time interventions by an observer, conditioned on the time-continuous measurement signal that they receive. Here, we consider here diffusive quantum trajectories and focus on the “noise-canceling” subset of feedback protocols that aim to minimize the degree of stochasticity in the dynamics. We derive such a class of feedback operations, showing that under the idealized assumptions of pure states, unit measurement efficiency, and zero time delay in implementing feedback operations, perfectly noise-canceling feedback always exists. We consider the resulting noise-canceled dynamics generated by an effective non-Hermitian Hamiltonian; while non-Hermitian Hamiltonians from continuous monitoring generally describe rare dynamics (accessible by costly postselection), the use of noise-canceling feedback here leads to non-Hermitian dynamics that occur deterministically. We demonstrate this via examples of entangled state preparation and stabilization. We then illustrate the potential for the application of noise cancellation to boost success rates in magic state distillation protocols. We show that adding feedback based on noise cancellation into a time-continuous five-to-one distillation protocol leads to higher probabilities of successful distillation across a range of input errors and increases the threshold on input errors for which the protocol is effective. Our results highlight the efficacy of noise-canceling feedback-aided protocols for quantum state preparation and stabilization tasks.

Karmakar, Tathagata [University of California, Ber↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Perspective on Quantum Computing Applications in Quantum Chemistry Using 25-100 Logical Qubits

The intersection of quantum computing and quantum chemistry represents a promising frontier for achieving quantum utility in domains of both scientific and societal relevance. Owing to the exponential growth of classical resource requirements for simulating quantum systems, quantum chemistry has long been recognized as a natural candidate for quantum computation. This perspective focuses on identifying scientifically meaningful use cases where early fault-tolerant quantum computers, which are considered to be equipped with approximately 25-100 logical qubits, could deliver tangible impact. While recent advances in classical computing have pushed the boundaries of tractable simulations to unprecedented scales, this logical-qubit regime represents the first window where quantum devices can pursue qualitatively distinct strategies, such as polynomial-scaling phase estimation, direct simulation of quantum dynamics, and active-space embedding, that remain challenging for classical solvers, such as multireference charge-transfer and conical-intersection states central to photochemistry and materials design. We highlight near-term opportunities in algorithm and software design, discuss representative chemical problems suited for quantum acceleration, and propose strategic roadmaps and collaborative pathways for advancing practical quantum utility in quantum chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

ECLEIRS: Exact conservation law embedded identification of reduced states for parameterized nonlinear conservation laws from sparse and noisy data

Multi-query applications such as parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and design optimization for parameterized partial differential equation (PDE) systems are expensive. While reduced/latent state dynamics approaches for parameterized PDEs offer a viable alternative, these approaches rely on high-quality data and struggle with highly sparse spatiotemporal noisy measurements typically obtained from experiments. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that these models satisfy governing physical conservation laws. In this article, we propose a reduced state dynamics approach, referred to as ECLEIRS, that embeds exact conservation in the solution and flux representation by utilizing a space-time divergence-free neural network formulation. We compare ECLEIRS with other reduced state dynamics approaches, those that do not enforce any physical constraints and those with physics-informed loss functions, for three shock-propagation problems: 1-D advection, 1-D Burgers and 2-D Euler equations. In conclusion, the numerical experiments conducted in this study demonstrate that ECLEIRS provides the most accurate prediction of dynamics for unseen parameters even in the presence of highly sparse and noisy data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗