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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Inference with Sparse and Quantized Communication

Here, we consider the problem of distributed inference where agents in a network observe a stream of private signals generated by an unknown state, and aim to uniquely identify this state from a finite set of hypotheses. We focus on scenarios where communication between agents is costly, and takes place over channels with finite bandwidth. To reduce the frequency of communication, we develop a novel event-triggered distributed learning rule that is based on the principle of diffusing low beliefs on each false hypothesis. Building on this principle, we design a trigger condition under which an agent broadcasts only those components of its belief vector that have adequate innovation, to only those neighbors that require such information. We prove that our rule guarantees convergence to the true state exponentially fast almost surely despite sparse communication, and that it has the potential to significantly reduce information flow from uninformative agents to informative agents. Next, to deal with finite-precision communication channels, we propose a distributed learning rule that leverages the idea of adaptive quantization. We show that by sequentially refining the range of the quantizers, every agent can learn the truth exponentially fast almost surely, while using just 1 bit to encode its belief on each hypothesis. For both our proposed algorithms, we rigorously characterize the trade-offs between communication-efficiency and the learning rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

pyFLANK, a graph neural network based null distribution inference model for F ST outlier detection

Detecting genomic regions under selection is essential for understanding how populations adapt to different environments, yet it remains challenging due to the confounding effects of demographic history and linkage disequilibrium (LD). Fixation index (F ST ) is a widely used statistic to identify genomic regions under adaptation. However, identifying genes under selection by defining F ST outliers often remains challenging, owing to confounding effects of underlying demographic history. Traditional methods assume independence among loci and rely on simple demographic models, while newer models perform much better but are computationally expensive and not easily scalable. Here, we present pyFLANK, an open-source and automated Python implementation which detects F ST outliers using a null distribution inferred from quasi-independent loci. Our tool integrates three approaches to identify loci obeying a null distribution: graph neural network (GNN) inference, linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based inference, and user-defined input. Because pyFLANK uses GNN-based inference of quasi-independent loci, it yields a more accurate null model with less need for user parameter input. In simulation experiments, pyFLANK achieved lower false positive rates than current methods while maintaining comparable detection power, indicating that its refined null model better distinguishes true adaptive loci from background variation. The GNN-based model, in particular, detected additional loci associated with phenotypic variance that were not identified by existing methods. Assessments of simulation and real data from different species demonstrate that pyFLANK achieves lower false positive rates compared with other commonly used F ST outlier detectors, while maintaining comparable detection power and excellent computational performance, providing a robust and user-friendly tool for identifying loci under divergent selection. It extends existing F ST outlier frameworks by incorporating explicit LD-aware strategies for null model calibration. The method is intended as a practical and scalable complement to existing genome scan approaches.

FST↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using ultrasonic attenuation in cortical bone to infer distributions on pore size

Here, in this work we infer the underlying distribution on pore radius in human cortical bone samples using ultrasonic attenuation data. We first discuss how to formulate polydisperse attenuation models using a probabilistic approach and the Waterman Truell model for scattering attenuation. We then compare the Independent Scattering Approximation and the higher-order Waterman Truell models’ forward predictions for total attenuation in polydisperse samples. Following this, we formulate an inverse problem under the Prohorov Metric Framework coupled with variational regularization to stabilize this inverse problem. We then use experimental attenuation data taken from human cadaver samples and solve inverse problems resulting in nonparametric estimates of the probability density function on pore radius. We compare these estimates to the “true” microstructure of the bone samples determined via microCT imaging. We find that our methodology allows us to reliably estimate the underlying microstructure of the bone from attenuation data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1991

A diagnostic stratospheric aerosol size distribution inferred from SAGE II measurements

An aerosol size distribution model for the stratosphere is inferred based on 5 years of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II measurements of multispectral aerosol and water vapor extinction. The SAGE II aerosol and water vapor extinction data strongly suggest that there is a critical particle radius below which there is a relatively weak dependence of particle number density with size and above which there are few, if any, particles. A segmented power law model, as a simple representation of this dependence, is used in theoretical calculations and intercomparisons with a variety of aerosol measurements including dustsondes, longwave lidar, and wire impactors and shows a consistently good agreement.

Thomason, Larry W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Ionospheric and Birkeland current distributions inferred from the MAGSAT magnetometer data

Ionospheric and field-aligned sheet current density distributions are presently inferred by means of MAGSAT vector magnetometer data, together with an accurate magnetic field model. By comparing Hall current densities inferred from the MAGSAT data and those inferred from simultaneously recorded ground based data acquired by the Scandinavian magnetometer array, it is determined that the former have previously been underestimated due to high damping of magnetic variations with high spatial wave numbers between the ionosphere and the MAGSAT orbit. Among important results of this study is noted the fact that the Birkeland and electrojet current systems are colocated. The analyses have shown a tendency for triangular rather than constant electrojet current distributions as a function of latitude, consistent with the statistical, uniform regions 1 and 2 Birkeland current patterns.

Zanetti, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Modeling substorm current systems using conductivity distributions inferred from DE auroral images

The first attempt to systematically use DE 1 auroral images to infer ionospheric conductivities is presented. These conductivities are then used to compute the distributions of ionospheric and field-aligned current patterns during auroral substorms. It is concluded that the western electrojet is, in general, collocated with the region of high auroral luminosity, while the region of relatively low luminosity in the evening sector is collocated with the eastward electrojet. The upward field-aligned currents exist in the brightest auroral region on the poleward side of the evening auroral oval and on the equatorward side of the morning oval. A significant amount of ionospheric currents can flow in regions where there are no bright auroral emissions.

Kamide, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Unique Observational Constraints on the Seasonal and Longitudinal Variability of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Cloud Distribution Inferred From EPIC Measurements

Thorough comparison to observations is key to developing a credible climate model forecasting capability. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation provide a unique observational perspective that permits a more reliable model/data comparison than is possible with the otherwise available satellite data. The uniqueness is in the DSCOVR satellite’s viewing geometry, which enables continuous viewing of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere from its Lissajous orbit around the Lagrangian L1 point. The key instrument is the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), which views the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere with 1024-by-1024-pixel imagery in 10 narrow spectral bands from 317 to 780 nm, acquiring up to 22 high spatial resolution images per day. The additional feature is that the frequency of EPIC image acquisition is nearly identical to that of the climate GCM data generation scheme where climate data for the entire globe are ‘instantaneously’ calculated at 1-h radiation time-step intervals. Implementation of the SHS (Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling) EPIC-view geometry for the in-line GCM output data sampling establishes a precise self-consistency in the space-time data sampling between EPIC observational and GCM output data generation and sampling. The remaining problem is that the GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while the EPIC measurements are backscatter-dependent radiances. Radiance to flux conversion is a complex problem with no simple way to convert GCM radiative fluxes into spectral radiances. The more expedient approach is to convert the EPIC spectral radiances into broadband radiances by MODIS/CERES-based regression relationships and then into solar radiative fluxes using the CERES angular distribution models. Averaging over the sunlit hemisphere suppresses the meteorological weather noise, but preserves the intra-seasonal larger scale variability. Longitudinal slicing by the Earth’s rotation permits a self-consistent model/data comparison of the longitudinal model/data differences in the variability of the reflected solar radiation. Ancillary EPIC Composite data provide additional cloud property information for climate model diagnostics. Comparison of EPIC-derived seasonal and longitudinal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo with the GISS ModelE2 results shows systematic overestimate of cloud reflectivity over the Pacific Ocean with corresponding underestimates over continental land areas.

DSCOVR↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1986

Loss of fine-scale surface texture in Viking Orbiter images and implications for the inferred distribution of debris mantles

A numerical, self-consistent model is defined for filtering out the effects of haze which cause a loss of fine-scale features in Viking Orbiter imagery of the Mars surface. Increased definition is necessary if the visual data is to serve for identifying terrain features which indicate the presence of volatiles such as ice. Crater images are used to calculate the change in atmospheric optical properties that accounts for alterations in the discriminability of crater features. Modulation transfer functions are developed for the image obscuration contributions of the atmosphere and the camera lens, thereby quantifying the smallest crater (6-7 pixels) that can be seen. The radiance of the viewed scene is modeled, and an atmospheric obscuration parameter is obtained as a function of the ratio of the atmospheric and surface obscuration contributions to the radiance at the detector. The contribution of the surface alone can then be identified. The model is applied in calculations of the total number of observed craters for comparisons with the expected number of craters, and to assess the potential for using the Viking cameras to characterize the geomorphic properties of various regions of the Mars surface.

Kahn, R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A distributed voltage inference framework for cyber-physical attacks detection and localization in active distribution grids

The transition to active distribution grids with real-time monitoring and control depends on the proliferation of advanced communication networks and devices. This paradigm shift towards a cyber-physical architecture also introduces new vulnerabilities for adversaries to exploit and launch sophisticated cyber-physical attacks targeting grid observability. Current research highlights the challenges in distinguishing attacks on voltage phasor or nodal injection measurements and isolating multi-source attack locations in a multiphase distribution grid. The attack detection and localization methods in literature face accuracy issues, applications across diverse attack scenarios, or scalability limits. Here, to bridge these gaps, this paper proposes a distributed Voltage Inference framework for real-time detection and localization of cyber-physical attacks, addressing scalability, adaptability, and accuracy challenges in state-of-the-art methods. The proposed methodology leverages the distributed nature of the Voltage Inference framework through a two-step process of prediction and correction, together with a tractable graph partitioning approach, providing a reliable solution to identify compromised measurement sources and facilitate isolation. Extensive testing on IEEE 13 and 123-node distribution feeders underscores the algorithm’s efficacy, enhancing the security and resilience of active distribution grids against evolving cyber threats. Additionally, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) implementation validates the proposed strategy’s practical applicability in real-world scenarios.

active distribution grids↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Membership Inference Attacks under Distribution Shifts

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) exploit machine learning models to infer whether a data point was in the training set, posing significant privacy risks even with limited black-box access. These attacks rely on the attacker approximating the target model’s training distribution, yet the impact of distribution shifts between target and shadow models on MIA success remains underexplored. We systematically evaluate five types of distribution shifts —-cutout, jitter, Gaussian noise, label shift, and attribute shift —- at varying intensities. Our results reveal that these shifts affect MIA effectiveness in nuanced ways, with some reducing attack success while others exacerbate vulnerabilities, and the same shift can have opposite effects depending on the type of MIA. This highlights the complex interplay between distributional differences and attack performance, offering critical insights for improving model defenses against MIAs.

Shi, Yichuan [Massachusetts Institute of Technolog↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep-Learning-Based Koopman Modeling for Online Control Synthesis of Nonlinear Power System Transient Dynamics

Power system stability and control have become more challenging due to the increasing uncertainty associated with renewable generation. Here, the performance of conventional control is highly driven by the physics-based offline-developed dynamic models that can deviate from the actual system characteristics under different operating conditions and/or configurations. Data-driven approaches based on online measurements can be a better solution to addressing these issues by capturing real-time operation conditions. This article describes a novel fully data-driven probabilistic framework to derive a linear representation of postcontingency grid dynamics and online prescribe control based on the derived model to enhance transient stability. The complex nonlinear power system dynamics is approximated by a linear model by using multiple neural network modules that infer distributions of the observations and introducing a Koopman layer to sample possible Koopman linear models from the inferred distributions. The trained model features linearity that can be easily incorporated into the existing linear control design paradigm and ease the controller design process. The effectiveness of Koopman-based control designs is validated through comparative case studies, which demonstrate increased prediction accuracy and control performance when applied to a power system with heterogeneous generator dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1985

LIMS data - Inferred stratospheric distribution of NOx and HOx trace constituents and the calculated odd nitrogen budget

LIMS, SAMS, SBUV and in-situ data have been used to infer species not measured but which are of photochemical interest, e.g., O(3P), O(1D), NO, N2O5, OH, HO2, ClO and HCl. (LIMS = limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere; SAMS = stratospheric and mesospheric sounder; and SBUV = solar backscattered ultraviolet instrument.) Production and loss of odd nitrogen have been calculated and estimates have been made of the odd nitrogen transport due to adiabatically driven circulation derived from LIMS data. Data used from LIMS include O3, NO2, HNO3, H2O and T. CH4 and N2O were taken from SAMS and the UV solar flux from the SBUV instrument. Species were inferred for periods in October, December, March and May. Results for December are discussed. Results indicate: (1) maximum stratospheric odd nitrogen levels of 25 ppbv; (2) evidence of odd nitrogen transport from the mesosphere appearing at 25 km in the wintertime polar latitudes; (3) the polar night build-up of high levels of N2O5 beginning after the autumnal equinox; and (4) the possibility of large downward fluxes of odd nitrogen into the troposphere during the winter at latitudes poleward of 60 degrees.

Callis, L. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Uncertainty in Particle Size Distribution Parameters Inferred from SAGE III/ISS Extinction Spectra

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on their microphysical properties such as particle size distribution (PSD). The PSD is a mathematical description of the relative abundance of different sized particles within a sampling volume. If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density) can be derived. Occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts failed to address two key issues with this methodology: 1. The measurement uncertainty was not accounted for; 2. They assumed the PSDs to be single-mode only, while “real-world” PSDs are predominantly bi-modal. Accounting for both issues in the retrieval will yield an expanded solution space to the inferred PSD parameters; the question is “by how much?” To address this knowledge gap, we propose to carry out a series of simulations and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS data point, determine the range of PSD parameters that yield extinction spectra that are indistinguishable from the SAGE III/ISS data, within the limits of the reported uncertainty. Further, we will expand the solution space, for the first time, to include bimodal distributions. The results of this work will advance Earth system modeling/prediction capability through identifying the uncertainty of PSD parameter estimates using SAGE III/ISS data. The key benefits of this study over previous studies are twofold: 1. we will provide PSD estimates that include bimodal distributions in the solution space, 2. we will provide an uncertainty estimate for these parameters. The results of this study may be used directly in current and future climate and chemistry models.

SAGE III/ISS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gaussian processes for inferring parton distributions

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to reconstruct PDFs from lattice QCD matrix elements. Within a Bayesian framework, Gaussian processes serve as flexible priors that encode uncertainties, correlations, and constraints without imposing rigid functional forms. We investigate a wide range of kernel choices, mean functions, and hyperparameter treatments. We quantify information gained from the data using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Synthetic data tests demonstrate the consistency and robustness of the method. Our study establishes GPR as a systematic and non-parametric approach to PDF reconstruction, offering controlled uncertainty estimates and reduced model bias in lattice QCD analyses.

hadronic spectroscopy↗
NASA NTRS1986

Oxidation and reduction rates for organic carbon in the Amazon mainstream tributary and floodplain, inferred from distributions of dissolved gases

Concentrations of CO2, O2, CH4, and N2O in the Amazon River system reflect an oxidation-reduction sequence in combination with physical mixing between the floodplain and the mainstem. Concentrations of CO2 ranged from 150 microM in the Amazon mainstem to 200 to 300 microM in aerobic waters of the floodplain, and up to 1000 microM in oxygen-depleted environments. Apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) ranged from 80 to 250 microM. Methane was highly supersaturated, with concentrations ranging from 0.06 microM in the mainstem to 100 microM on the floodplain. Concentrations of N2O were slightly supersaturated in the mainstem, but were undersaturated on the floodplain. Fluxes calculated from these concentrations indicated decomposition of 1600 g C sq m y(-1) of organic carbon in Amazon floodplain waters. Analysis of relationships between CH4, O2, and CO2 concentrations indicated that approximately 50 percent of carbon mineralization on the floodplain is anaerobic, with 20 percent lost to the atmoshphere as CH4. The predominance of anaerobic metabolism leads to consumption of N2O on the flood plane. Elevated concentrations of CH4 in the mainstem probably reflect imput from the floodplain, while high levels of CO2 in the mainstem are derived from a combination of varzea drainage and in situ respiration.

Richey, Jeffrey E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interpretation of planetary radar observations - The relationship between actual and inferred slope distributions

We examined the distribution of surface slopes of a variety of terrestrial surfaces by field measurement, representing surfaces formed by a wide range of processes, and compared the results to planetary radar data. Slope distributions of the measured surfaces differed considerably from the distributions assumed by accepted models of radar scattering. We also used Hagfors' model of radar scattering to predict the return that would be expected from surfaces where two discrete surface types were present within the radar field of view and found that the shapes of the resulting slope distributions differed from those predicted by the Hagfors model for homogeneous surfaces. Together, these results suggest that current methods of determining surface roughness from radar may significantly underestimate the roughness of planetary surfaces and that the derived rms slope can best be used as a qualitative guide to the physical interpretation of actual surface properties.

Mccollom, Thomas M.↗