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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Disruptive Technologies in Workmanship: pH-neutral Flux, CDM ESD Events, HDI PCBs

This slide presentation describes what it calls "disruptive technologies", i.e., "Low-end disruption" occurs when the rate at which products improve exceeds the rate at which customers can adopt the new performance. Therefore, at some point the performance of the product overshoots the needs of certain customer segments. At this point, a disruptive technology may enter the market and provide a product which has lower performance than the incumbent but which exceeds the requirements of certain segments, thereby gaining a foothold in the market. This concept is viewed in impacting incumbent technologies Rosin Flux, with a pH-neutral water soluble Flux; electrostatic discharge models being disrupted by the charge device model (CDM) concept; and High Density Interconnect Printed Circuit Boards (HDI PCB).

Plante, Jeannette F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Disruptive Technology That is Additive Construction: System Development Lessons Learned for Terrestrial and Planetary Applications

Disruptive technologies are unique in that they spawn other new technologies and applications as they grow. These activities are usually preceded by the question, "What If?" For example, "What if we could use an emerging technology and in-situ materials to promote exploration on the Moon or Mars, and then use that same technology to keep our troops out of harm's way and/or help the worlds' homeless?" This question allows us to flip the mindset of "how can people create more valuable innovation?" to "how can innovation create more valuable people?." This approach allows us to view augmented human labor as an inclusive opportunity, not a threat. The discipline of Additive Construction is growing rapidly due to the flexibility, speed, safety and logistics benefits offered as compared to standard construction techniques. Additive construction is a disruptive technology in that it employs the principles of additive manufacturing on a human habitat structure scale. Developed initially for emergency management and disaster relief applications, additive construction has now grown into military infrastructure and planetary (Moon and Mars) surface infrastructure applications as well. Additive Construction with Mobile Emplacement (ACME) is a NASA technology development project that seeks to demonstrate the feasibility of constructing shelters for human crews, and other surface infrastructure, on the Moon or Mars for a future human presence. The ACME project will allow, for the first time, the 3-dimensional printing of surface structures on planetary bodies using local materials for construction, thereby tremendously reducing launch and transportation mass and logistics. Some examples of infrastructure that could be constructed using robotic additive construction methods are landing pads, rocket engine blast protection berms, roads, dust free zones, equipment shelters, habitats and radiation shelters. Terrestrial applications include the development of surface structures using Earth-based materials for emergency response, disaster relief, general construction, and housing at all economic levels. This paper will describe the progress made by the NASA ACME project with a focus on prototypes and full scale additive construction demonstrations using both Portland cement concrete and other indigenous material mixtures. Rationale for the use of additive construction for both terrestrial and planetary applications will be explored and a thorough state-of-the-art of additive construction techniques will be presented. An evolutionary history of NASA's additive construction development efforts, dating back to 2004, will be included. The paper will then step through a series of trade studies performed to inform key processing and design decisions in the development of the full-scale ACES-3 system developed by NASA and the Jacobs Space Exploration Group for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Construction Engineers Research Laboratory (CERL) in Champaign, IL. The selection of aggregate and binders, based on in-situ materials, will also be presented and discussed

Space Processing↗
NASA NTRS2020

Disruptive Technologies and Their Putative Impacts Upon Society and Aerospace- Entering The Virtual Age

Developments in technology over the recent decades have been extraordinary. They include the IT, bio, nano, and now quantum and energetics technology arenas and their many combinatorial interactions and impacts. In the main, these are at the frontiers of the small and in a combinational, synergistic feeding frenzy with each other. They fall under the broad category of Disruptive Technologies and have greatly altered society. The outlook for the runout of these and other technology developments augers mid-term to later alterations in components of the human existence theorem, including the requirement to work for our living and our physiological makeup and longevity (Ref 1). The IT revolution began in the 1950s with the development of solid-state electronics. The biologics revolution began later in the 1960s and 1970s with DNA and genomics, and the nano revolution in the 1990s with self-forming nano systems and carbon nanotubes. Quantum technology is now developing rapidly, aided by enabling nano systems, and the energetics revolution is providing ever more efficient and less expensive renewable energy sources. The IT revolution has produced improvements of an astounding eleven orders of magnitude in computing speed since the late 1950s. As we shift from silicon to biological, optical, nano, molecular, and atomic computing, improvements of some 4 orders of magnitude are evidently possible from either optical or DNA computing [Refs 2and 3], then there are combinatorials. Then there is quantum computing, under development worldwide for an increasing number of applications and proffering phenomenal capabilities. The current fastest computers are considerably beyond human brain speed. Machine intelligence is developing well after decades of inadequate machine capability, now no longer the case, and a detour into expert systems. Researchers in machine intelligence are now pursuing deep learning approaches using neural nets, which are proving to be extremely useful. Some believe the frontier of potential human-level machine intelligence may be found in biomimetics and brain-emulation approaches. There is even a possibility of “emergence”—i.e., when the machine intelligence is complex enough that it “wakes up,” as when human intelligence emerged via evolution during the million-plus years of the hunter-gatherer epoch [ Ref 4]. In fact, some posit that human intelligence can be improved upon and is only a cul-de-sac of what is conceivable. The IT revolution has produced massive changes in human society and economics—from the Internet, enabling the rapid expansion of knowledgeability (and even what is knowable), to an increasingly pervasive trend of “tele-everything.” The extraordinary compilation, storage, and availability of truly massive amounts of information could, when combined with AI and under the mantra of “big data,” greatly improve many of our technical and commercial processes and their content including elucidating new heuristic governing laws.

Dennis M. Bushnell↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Covert Disruptive Technology: Test and Development of the Corona Satellite

The launching by the Soviet Union of the Sputnik satellite in 19457 was an impetuous to the United States. The Intercontinental ballistic Missile (ICBM) that launched the Earth's first satellite, could have been armed with a nuclear warhead, that could destroy an American city. The primary intelligence requirement that the US had was to determine the actual size of the Soviet missile program. To this end, a covert, high-risk photoreconnaissance satellite was developed. The code name of this program was "Corona." This article describes the trials and eventual successes of the Corona program.

Peebles, Curtis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Residuum-Those Who Technology Leaves Behind

The introduction of new technologies has direct and indirect advantages and disadvantages on societies. As the relentless pace of technology increases, societies have to adjust, accommodate, integrate or reject the latest invention or innovation. Many people even experience the unintended consequences associated with these technologies. Some technologies appear to have a stabilizing effect on society (where the technology lifts all of society) while other technologies appear disruptive with unsettling effects(benefits are shared by a few with previously established firms being displaced). In this latter case, companies with the most disruptive technologies provide benefits but also gain market share by decimating their competitors. Those in society who have the means or the opportunity to seize the benefits of advanced technologies undoubtedly gain efficiencies of time and effectiveness while those who cannot afford or those who chose not to adopt these same technologies unfortunately fall behind. During the present worldwide pandemic, schools have physically closed their doors causing the mto pursue virtual classrooms. How will the teachers and children without internet access in their homes compare to those who do? In the near future, increased automation will lead to some reduction in the full-time workforce. A co-worker recently improved her skills in a fortuitous technical discipline. Others did not. Who should be held responsible for reskilling? Stated another way, who should be held responsible for finding new employment opportunities?In the distant future, parents who incorporated genetically enhanced benefits during childbirth will have offspring who will probably advance beyond those who cannot afford the technology. In these various ways, who should be held responsible for those who technology leaves behind?Are those left behind simply those who suffer inequality or is there something more?Should the semi-transparent hand of technology be allowed to roam freely through society selecting the survival of the fittest as it chooses? Should the invisible hand of the financial market make the decisions? Or, should governments and companies bear some responsibility by crafting policies to mitigate the consequences to those cast aside by the technology? This paper will endeavor to address some of the underlying issues of this question while attempting to find a set of sensible solutions to this problem.

Residuum↗
NASA NTRS2017

Preliminary Investigation of Impact of Technological Impairment on Trajectory-Based Operations

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) incorporates collaborative air traffic management and Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) in order to significantly increase the capacity, efficiency, and predictability of operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), without decreasing safety. This is enabled by airspace users and service providers sharing knowledge about operations that allows prediction of the complete 4D flight trajectory with as little uncertainty as possible. Additionally, new software and hardware technology is critical to reaching NextGen goals, especially with regard to TBO. What if the technologies that are critical for TBO were to be impaired or fail completely? Should there be a malfunction of a piece of the technology, it must be ensured that the whole system does not break down completely or suffer severe impairment. Instead, operations need to be maintained proportionally to the problem and safety needs to be ensured (graceful degradation). This paper proposes a systematic framework to investigate the vulnerability of TBO to technology disruption, and determine the impact of technological impairment on TBO. Two representative technologies are chosen for detailed investigation and the impact of their impairment on the degradation of TBO is illustrated using a weather-related scenario. XXXX There are several possible directions of future work. We believe it is desirable to develop methods to quantitatively assess the impact of technological disruption on TBO and to have the simulation tools to validate the impact. The availability of prognostics and health management methods could be leveraged to predict technological failure/disruption, thus predicting how TBO will be a ected, and possibly pro-actively mitigating the impact. It is important to develop large-scale scenarios where the e ect of technological impairment is prominent, and identify methods to quantitatively assess the extent of TBO degradation. An important goal of such an investigation is the development of failure-resistant resilient trajectory-based oper- ations. Resilience14, 15 is the property of a system to \bounce back" and resume at least a signi cant portion of its functionalities after degradation due to technological impairment(s). A systems resilience includes properties such as \bu ering capacity" (quantifying disruptions the system can absorb or adapt to without a fundamental breakdown in performance or in the systems structure), \ exibility" (ability to restructure itself in response to external changes or pressures), "margin" (how closely the system is currently operating rela- tive to one or another kind of performance boundary), \tolerance" (whether the system gracefully degrades as stress/pressure increase, or collapses quickly when pressure exceeds adaptive capacity), etc. Future work needs to focus on quantifying and improving the resilience of TBO, and identifying resilient design solutions for aviation.

TBO↗
NASA NTRS2015

Playing Nice Across Time and Space

Presentation will cover elements of modeling and simulation technologies, including game technologies, as applied to maturation of new and disruptive technologies.

technology development↗
NASA NTRS2021

Center for High-Efficiency Electrical Technologies for Aircraft (CHEETA)

The aeronautics industry has been challenged on many fronts to increase efficiency, reduce emissions, and decrease dependency on carbon-based fuels. With subsonic transports serving as the dominant contributor to the fuel consumption and carbon footprint of global aviation, the need for environmentally-responsible transportation has been met with a boom of research in the field of aircraft propulsion electrification across industry, government, and academic organizations. However, adoption of electrified propulsion systems for large commercial aircraft today is unattainable, due to the lack of motors and power electronics appropriately sized for these vehicles, high weight requirements of conventional electrical energy storage systems, and new principles required to design these classes of aircraft. The mission of the Center for High-Efficiency Electrical Technologies for Aircraft (CHEETA) program is to develop, mature, and design disruptive technologies for electric commercial aviation. The associated technologies being researched include distributed aero-propulsion system integration, high-efficiency electrochemical power conversion, flight-weight electric machines and power electronics, materials and systems for superconducting high-efficiency power transmission, and methods for complex system integration and optimization. Additionally, the current program is investigating the use of unconventional energy storage and power generation architectures, such as liquid hydrogen fuel and high-efficiency fuel cell systems. The research program provides a direct line-of-sight to not only achieving, but potentially even exceeding the aviation community goals for transition to alternative propulsion and energy through convergence of various novel technologies. The end result of maturation and integration of these technologies is an aircraft system with a quiet, efficient propulsion system that produces zero carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter emissions at the vehicle level.

Koushik Datta↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Habitation Development Status: Current Concepts and ISRU Opportunities

Introduction: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on a bold journey to return humankind to the Moon and onward to Mars with innovative commercial, international, and academic partnerships. Under the Artemis series of missions, NASA seeks to establish sustained human exploration of deep space through an objectives-based approach. This approach drives the identification of needed system functionality and the current and future capabilities which will eventually allow humanity to sustainably live beyond Earth. Providing evolvable and scalable habitation is a cornerstone function that calls for the collection and integration of current, developmental, and future technologies that can meet near-term exploration needs while growing into long-term sustained presence. NASA is advancing in-space habitation through its Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) model while designing lunar, Mars transit, and Mars surface habitat government reference concepts for Artemis missions. These efforts have unveiled possible near-term opportunities for the in-space resource utilization community if human habitation is considered a future customer of space resources. NextSTEP Habitation Development: NASA is closely working with commercial partners under its NextSTEP Appendix A model to advance habitation systems in the arena of inflatable and composite habitation structures. Such efforts promise efficiencies in volumetric packaging and overall spacecraft mass respectively. Recent testing by commercial partners have helped to quantify possible failure mechanisms for inflatable structures while advancing their technology towards eventual flight certification. The advancement of such Class II habitation structures, in which the habitat is only fully deployed once in-space or on a planetary surface, is critical to providing increased habitable volume for long-duration missions with no additional mass penalties. The progression of such technology is infused into NASA’s government reference concepts for notional deep space habitation concepts. Current Government Reference Concepts: To best inform the formulation of future collaborative solicitations, NASA employs the practice of internally developing reference concepts for future exploration elements. These concepts aid in identifying the functions and capabilities needed to complete NASA missions as well as feasible solutions within the timeframe needed. Government reference concepts for a lunar Surface Habitat, Mars Transit Habitat, and Mars Sur-face Habitat are continuously being developed and updated to better guide the Agency’s overall exploration architecture. Lunar Surface Habitat. As NASA returns to the Moon, it is evaluating possible lunar surface habitation concepts. The Surface Habitat (SH) reference concept entails a hybrid metallic-inflatable structure capable of initially housing two crew for surface stays of up to 30 days in duration. While initial missions may span ~7 days in duration, consideration is being given to expanding SH’s capability to support a crew of four for up to 60 days over its 15-year design life. Functionally, the SH serves as a ‘hub’ for all Artemis crewed surface operations, providing internal volume for maintenance, medical, logistics, science utilization, and extravehicular activity (EVA) support in addition to core habitation functionality such as environmental control and life support (ECLS) and power generation and distribution among many others. Additionally, NASA has entered a study agreement with the Italian Space Agency (Agenzia Spaziale Italiana – ASI) to investigation a possible Multi-Purpose Habitat (MPH) as an additional or augmenting habit-able element for the lunar surface. Mars Transit Habitat. NASA’s current architectural concept for initial human missions to Mars entails the utilization of a transit habitat (TH) to transport a four-person crew to and from Mars orbit, departing from and returning to a lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO), over the course of a ~1,200-day mission. While holding a similar 15-year design lifetime, TH will also support a series of analog mission activities in NRHO to gradually test the systems and interaction with lunar surface elements, some of which may be adapted for Mars surface exploration. Holding similar functional capabilities as SH, TH is sized to support much longer durations in space and greater logistical independence. Mars Surface Habitat. NASA is still exploring the concept of operations for initial crewed missions to Mars. As such, the Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) concept is still in its infancy as options for mobile, pressurized habitation and stationary habitats are being explored. It is expected MSH will leverage heavily from the lunar SH and possible lunar pressurized rover, however the very different Martian environment will likely necessitate modifications. ISRU Opportunities: Despite the advancements under NASA’s NextSTEP habitation work and continually optimized reference concepts, NASA is facing near-term mass and power challenges that may create opportunities to the ISRU community by providing yet another possible customer for space resources. While NASA desires to use regenerative ECLS systems (ECLSS) for all habitation concepts, their operation comes with initial mass penalties and maintenance overheads when compared to simpler open-loop architectures. Because of this, NASA is currently pro-posing an open-loop, consumables-based architecture for its surface habitats to achieve initial launch and delivery lander mass targets while scarring for the in-corporation of regenerative ECLSS to meet longer mission durations and sustained presence. With such an architecture, oxygen and potable water are needed consumables, which initial ISRU systems may be able to provide in a pilot capacity. Although the TH is expecting to utilize regenerative ECLSS, advancements in lunar surface-based ISRU and possible re-supply of spacecraft in lunar or Mars orbit could significantly reduce the logistical need for ECLSS related spares on TH and possibly allow a similar open-loop and consumables-based architecture. In addition to ECLSS mass concerns, the SH is facing challenges with energy storage to support operations over periods of darkness exceeding 100 hours. Both battery and fuel cell-based power architectures are being traded, opening options for external power generation and energy storage. One possibility is ISRU-produced H2 and O2 feeding external primary fuel cell systems which could supplement habitation power generation while reducing initial mass and volume until much more powerful fission power systems might be deployed. Conclusion: Significant advancements are being made in evolvable habitation concepts that span from near-term technologies, such as inflatable structures under NextSTEP, to potentially revolutionary capabilities like the lunar surface construction as funded through the Moon-to-Mars Planetary Autonomous Construction Technologies (MMPACT) project. As NASA investigates both heritage capabilities and rap-idly advancing, disruptive technologies, there are likely many near-term opportunities for initial ISRU capabilities to significantly aid human habitation and increase self-sufficiency beyond Earth.

habitation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Habitation Development Status: Current Concepts and ISRU Opportunities

Introduction: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on a bold journey to return humankind to the Moon and onward to Mars with innovative commercial, international, and academic partnerships [1]. Under the Artemis series of missions, NASA seeks to establish sustained human exploration of deep space through an objectives-based approach [2]. This approach drives the identification of needed system functionality and the current and future capabilities which will eventually allow humanity to sustainably live beyond Earth. Providing evolvable and scalable habitation is a cornerstone function that calls for the collection and integration of current, developmental, and future technologies that can meet near-term exploration needs while growing into long-term sustained presence. NASA is advancing in-space habitation through its Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) model while designing lunar, Mars transit, and Mars surface habitat government reference concepts for Artemis missions. These efforts have unveiled possible near-term opportunities for the in-space resource utilization community if human habitation is considered a future customer of space resources. NextSTEP Habitation Development: NASA is closely working with commercial partners under its NextSTEP Appendix A model to advance habitation systems in the arena of inflatable and composite habitation structures. Such efforts promise efficiencies in volumetric packaging and overall spacecraft mass respectively. Recent testing by commercial partners have helped to quantify possible failure mechanisms for inflatable structures while advancing their technology towards eventual flight certification. The advancement of such Class II habitation structures, in which the habitat is only fully deployed once in-space or on a planetary surface [3], is critical to providing increased habitable volume for long-duration missions with no additional mass penalties. The progression of such technology is infused into NASA’s government reference concepts for notional deep space habitation concepts. Current Government Reference Concepts: To best inform the formulation of future collaborative solicitations, NASA employs the practice of internally developing reference concepts for future exploration elements. These concepts aid in identifying the functions and capabilities needed to complete NASA missions as well as feasible solutions within the timeframe needed. Government reference concepts for a lunar Surface Habitat, Mars Transit Habitat, and Mars Sur-face Habitat are continuously being developed and updated to better guide the Agency’s overall exploration architecture. Lunar Surface Habitat. As NASA returns to the Moon, it is evaluating possible lunar surface habitation concepts. The Surface Habitat (SH) reference concept entails a hybrid metallic-inflatable structure capable of initially housing two crew for surface stays of up to 30 days in duration [4]. While initial missions may span ~7 days in duration, consideration is being given to expanding SH’s capability to support a crew of four for up to 60 days over its 15-year design life [5]. Functionally, the SH serves as a ‘hub’ for all Artemis crewed surface operations, providing internal volume for maintenance, medical, logistics, science utilization, and extravehicular activity (EVA) support in addition to core habitation functionality such as environmental control and life support (ECLS) and power generation and distribution among many others. Additionally, NASA has entered a study agreement with the Italian Space Agency (Agenzia Spaziale Italiana – ASI) to investigation a possible Multi-Purpose Habitat (MPH) as an additional or augmenting habit-able element for the lunar surface [6]. Mars Transit Habitat. NASA’s current architectural concept for initial human missions to Mars entails the utilization of a transit habitat (TH) to transport a four-person crew to and from Mars orbit, departing from and returning to a lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO), over the course of a ~1,200-day mission [5]. While holding a similar 15-year design lifetime, TH will also support a series of analog mission activities in NRHO to gradually test the systems and interaction with lunar surface elements, some of which may be adapted for Mars surface exploration. Holding similar functional capabilities as SH, TH is sized to support much longer durations in space and greater logistical independence. Mars Surface Habitat. NASA is still exploring the concept of operations for initial crewed missions to Mars. As such, the Mars Surface Habitat (MSH) concept is still in its infancy as options for mobile, pressurized habitation and stationary habitats are being explored. It is expected MSH will leverage heavily from the lunar SH and possible lunar pressurized rover, however the very different Martian environment will likely necessitate modifications. ISRU Opportunities: Despite the advancements under NASA’s NextSTEP habitation work and continually optimized reference concepts, NASA is facing near-term mass and power challenges that may create opportunities to the ISRU community by providing yet another possible customer for space resources. While NASA desires to use regenerative ECLS systems (ECLSS) for all habitation concepts, their operation comes with initial mass penalties and maintenance overheads when compared to simpler open-loop architectures. Because of this, NASA is currently pro-posing an open-loop, consumables-based architecture for its surface habitats to achieve initial launch and delivery lander mass targets while scarring for the in-corporation of regenerative ECLSS to meet longer mission durations and sustained presence. With such an architecture, oxygen and potable water are needed consumables, which initial ISRU systems may be able to provide in a pilot capacity. Although the TH is expecting to utilize regenerative ECLSS, advancements in lunar surface-based ISRU and possible re-supply of spacecraft in lunar or Mars orbit could significantly reduce the logistical need for ECLSS related spares on TH and possibly allow a similar open-loop and consumables-based architecture. Table 1 Notional ECLSS consumables per mission use for SH and TH [5]. SH (28-day) Open Loop: Water (kg) 288 | Oxygen (kg) 30 TH (1110-day) Closed-Loop: Water (kg) 182 | Oxygen (kg) 123 In addition to ECLSS mass concerns, the SH is facing challenges with energy storage to support operations over periods of darkness exceeding 100 hours. Both battery and fuel cell-based power architectures are being traded, opening options for external power generation and energy storage. One possibility is ISRU-produced H2 and O2 feeding external primary fuel cell systems which could supplement habitation power generation while reducing initial mass and volume until much more powerful fission power systems might be deployed. Conclusion: Significant advancements are being made in evolvable habitation concepts that span from near-term technologies, such as inflatable structures under NextSTEP, to potentially revolutionary capabilities like the lunar surface construction as funded through the Moon-to-Mars Planetary Autonomous Construction Technologies (MMPACT) project [7]. As NASA investigates both heritage capabilities and rap-idly advancing, disruptive technologies, there are likely many near-term opportunities for initial ISRU capabilities to significantly aid human habitation and increase self-sufficiency beyond Earth.

habitation↗
NASA NTRS2008

Distributed Aviation Concepts and Technologies

Aviation has experienced one hundred years of evolution, resulting in the current air transportation system dominated by commercial airliners in a hub and spoke infrastructure. While the first fifty years involved disruptive technologies that required frequent vehicle adaptation, the second fifty years produced a stable evolutionary optimization of decreasing costs with increasing safety. This optimization has resulted in traits favoring a centralized service model with high vehicle productivity and cost efficiency. However, it may also have resulted in a system that is not sufficiently robust to withstand significant system disturbances. Aviation is currently facing rapid change from issues such as environmental damage, terrorism threat, congestion and capacity limitations, and cost of energy. Currently, these issues are leading to a loss of service for weaker spoke markets. These catalysts and a lack of robustness could result in a loss of service for much larger portions of the aviation market. The impact of other competing transportation services may be equally important as casual factors of change. Highway system forecasts indicate a dramatic slow down as congestion reaches a point of non-linearly increasing delay. In the next twenty-five years, there is the potential for aviation to transform itself into a more robust, scalable, adaptive, secure, safe, affordable, convenient, efficient and environmentally friendly system. To achieve these characteristics, the new system will likely be based on a distributed model that enables more direct services. Short range travel is already demonstrating itself to be inefficient with a centralized model, providing opportunities for emergent distributed services through air-taxi models. Technologies from the on-demand revolution in computers and communications are now available as major drivers for aviation on-demand adaptation. Other technologies such as electric propulsion are currently transforming the automobile industry, and will also significantly alter the functionality of future distributed aviation concepts. Many hurdles exist, including technology, regulation, and perception. Aviation has an inherent governmental role not present in other recent on-demand transformations, which may pose a risk of curtailing aviation democratization .

Moore, Mark D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study

The Booz Allen Team explored market size and potential barriers to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) by focusing on three potential markets – Airport Shuttle, Air Taxi, and Air Ambulance. We found that the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi markets are viable, with a significant total available market value in the U.S. of $500 billion, for a fully unconstrained scenario. In this unconstrained best-case scenario, passengers would have the ability to access and fly a UAM at any time, from any location to any destination, without being hindered by constraints such as weather, infrastructure, or traffic volume. Significant legal and regulatory, weather, certification, public perception, and infrastructure constraints exist, which reduce the market potential for these applications to only about 0.5% of the total available market, or $2.5 billion, in the near term. However, we determined that these constraints can be addressed through ongoing intra-governmental partnerships, government and industry collaboration, strong industry commitment, and existing legal and regulatory enablers. We found that the Air Ambulance market is not a viable market if served by electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles due to technology constraints but may potentially be viable if a hybrid VTOL aircraft are utilized. The barriers and challenges we characterized in this study can be stratified according to their applicability or potential mitigation through technology as well as market maturity (Figure 1). In the near term, high cost of service will be a key economic challenge. We found potential for significant reduction in service cost through increased vehicle and component efficiency, and automation in a more mature market scenario. Weather conditions also pose a challenge to the UAM market, though there is potential for mitigation of some of these impacts through technology such as sensors enabling operations in low visibility. However, even in a mature market with advanced technology, disruptions are still likely to occur due to weather events such as thunderstorms and strong winds. High density operations will likely stress the current Air Traffic Management (ATM) system in the near term, but technology and new initiatives such as the Air Traffic Management -eXploration project (ATM-X) will enable safe and efficient integration of UAM into the National Airspace System (NAS). Current battery technology creates a barrier in the near term, especially for the Air Ambulance market, as battery weight and extensive recharging times would be needed for these operations. Advancements in battery technology, as well as use of hybrid VTOLs, could significantly reduce this barrier in the longer term. As UAM emerges as a viable mode of transportation in the near term, adverse energy and environmental impacts, particularly noise, may impact community acceptance and potentially persist as the market matures into larger-scale operations. For non-technology related challenges, we found that infrastructure constraints will create a significant barrier to UAM in the near term but could be addressed in the longer term through development and expansion of vertiports. Competition from existing modes of transportation such as ride-sharing (e.g., Lyft, Uber) and ground taxi’s pose a key barrier to UAM in the short term, which will likely evolve into competition from other emerging technologies such as autonomous cars and electric trains in the longer term. Weather events will influence other components of the operation such as passenger comfort (e.g., extreme temperatures, turbulence) and infrastructure (e.g., winter weather causing cracks and degradation in vertiports). There is also potential for these impacts to be heightened in the longer term from the increased frequency of adverse weather such as thunderstorms due to changing climatic conditions. We also found that the public has strong concerns about safety as a passenger in a piloted UAM, including “lasing” of pilots, unruly passengers, and sabotage. They would prefer that all passengers pass through a security screening process before boarding a vehicle. They would also prefer to use UAM for longer regional trips, such as flying from Washington, DC to Baltimore, MD or San Diego, CA to Los Angeles, CA. A longer term automated UAM vehicle market will face challenges due to public apprehension about automation and unmanned operations, and a preference to fly with passengers they know in an autonomous (unmanned) operational scenario.

Rohit Goyal↗
NASA NTRS2015

Vision 2040: Evolving the Successful International Space University

Space exploration has always been full of inspiration, innovation, and creativity, with the promise of expanding human civilization beyond Earth. The space sector is currently experiencing rapid change as disruptive technologies, grassroots programs, and new commercial initiatives have reshaped long-standing methods of operation. Throughout the last 28 years, the International Space University (ISU) has been a leading institution for space education, forming international partnerships, and encouraging entrepreneurship in its over 4,000 alumni. In this report, our Vision 2040 team projected the next 25 years of space exploration and analyzed how ISU could remain a leading institution in the rapidly changing industry. Vision 2040 considered five important future scenarios for the space sector: real-time Earth applications, orbital stations, lunar bases, lunar and asteroid mining, and a human presence on Mars. We identified the signals of disruptive change within these scenarios, including underlying driving forces and potential challenges, and derived a set of skills that will be required in the future space industry. Using these skills as a starting point, we proposed strategies in five areas of focus for ISU: the future of the Space Studies Program (SSP), analog missions, outreach, alumni, and startups. We concluded that ISU could become not just an increasingly innovative educational institution, but one that acts as an international organization that drives space commercialization, exploration, innovation, and cooperation.

Martin, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2014

Misconceptions of Electric Propulsion Aircraft and Their Emergent Aviation Markets

Over the past several years there have been aircraft conceptual design and system studies that have reached conflicting conclusions relating to the feasibility of full and hybrid electric aircraft. Some studies and propulsion discipline experts have claimed that battery technologies will need to improve by 10 to 20 times before electric aircraft can effectively compete with reciprocating or turbine engines. However, such studies have approached comparative assessments without understanding the compelling differences that electric propulsion offers, how these technologies will fundamentally alter the way propulsion integration is approached, or how these new technologies can not only compete but far exceed existing propulsion solutions in many ways at battery specific energy densities of only 400 watt hours per kilogram. Electric propulsion characteristics offer the opportunity to achieve 4 to 8 time improvements in energy costs with dramatically lower total operating costs, while dramatically improving efficiency, community noise, propulsion system reliability and safety through redundancy, as well as life cycle Green House Gas emissions. Integration of electric propulsion will involve far greater degrees of distribution than existing propulsion solutions due to their compact and scale-free nature to achieve multi-disciplinary coupling and synergistic integration with the aerodynamics, highlift system, acoustics, vehicle control, balance, and aeroelasticity. Appropriate metrics of comparison and differences in analysis/design tools are discussed while comparing electric propulsion to other disruptive technologies. For several initial applications, battery energy density is already sufficient for competitive products, and for many additional markets energy densities will likely be adequate within the next 7 years for vibrant introduction. Market evolution and early adopter markets are discussed, along with the investment areas that will fill technology gaps and create opportunities for the effective, near-term electric aircraft products. Without understanding both the context of how electric propulsion will integrate into the vehicle system, and evolve into the market place it is likely that electric propulsion will continue to be misunderstood.

Moore, Mark D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum computing promises an unprecedented ability to solve intractable problems by harnessing quantum mechanical effects such as tunneling, superposition, and entanglement. The Quantum Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (QuAIL) at NASA Ames Research Center is the space agency's primary facility for conducting research and development in quantum information sciences. QuAIL conducts fundamental research in quantum physics but also explores how best to exploit and apply this disruptive technology to enable NASA missions in aeronautics, Earth and space sciences, and space exploration. At the same time, machine learning has become a major focus in computer science and captured the imagination of the public as a panacea to myriad big data problems. In this talk, we will discuss how classical machine learning can take advantage of quantum computing to significantly improve its effectiveness. Although we illustrate this concept on a quantum annealer, other quantum platforms could be used as well. If explored fully and implemented efficiently, quantum machine learning could greatly accelerate a wide range of tasks leading to new technologies and discoveries that will significantly change the way we solve real-world problems.

Biswas, Rupak↗
NASA NTRS2018

Superconducting Sensors for Microwave and Optical Photon-Starved Communications (Plenary)

NASA mission modeling indicates a desire for approximately a tenfold data improvement per decade from the Deep Space Network through the year 2040. Some of this improvement will come from aperture enhancement and antenna arraying, increased use of Ka-band over X-band, and high performance optical terminals (e.g. 12 m ground telescope). The remainder will depend on "disruptive" technologies. Deep-space communications differs from near earth communications. One way light travel times are measured in minutes rather than seconds and distances involved are large enough such that optical signals are photon limited and microwave signals have extremely low flux density. High frequency SQIF receivers and single photon detectors for optical communications will be described. Specifically, progress towards a "noiseless" receiver based on arrays of incommensurate area SQUIDs, and single photon counting detectors based on superconducting nanowires and kinetic inductance effects, will be discussed. Finally, the design of an optimal array of optical telescopes to emulate performance of a monolithic 12 m telescope will be outlined. In this case, optimal means minimizing the initial capital investment and operational cost while maintaining performance requirements of the deep-space link.

Romanofsky, Bob↗