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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advocating for Coccidioidomycosis to Be a Reportable Disease Nationwide in the United States and Encouraging Disease Surveillance across North and South America

Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) has been a known health threat in the United States (US) since the 1930s, though not all states are currently required to report disease cases. Texas, one of the non-reporting states, is an example of where both historical and contemporary scientific evidence define the region as endemic, but we don’t know disease incidence in the state. Mandating coccidioidomycosis as a reportable disease across more US states would increase disease awareness, improve clinical outcomes, and help antifungal drug and vaccine development. It would also increase our understanding of where the disease is endemic and the relationships between environmental conditions and disease cases. This is true for other nations in North and South America that are also likely endemic for coccidioidomycosis, especially Mexico. This commentary advocates for US state and territory epidemiologists to define coccidioidomycosis as a reportable disease and encourages disease surveillance in other endemic regions across North and South America in order to protect human health and reduce disease burden.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of the first ten years of FDA’s rare pediatric disease priority review voucher program: designations, diseases, and drug development

Abstract Background The Rare Pediatric Disease (RPD) Priority Review Voucher (PRV) Program was enacted in 2012 to support the development of new products for children. Prior to requesting a voucher, applicants can request RPD designation, which confirms their product treats or prevents a rare disease in which the serious manifestations primarily affect children. This study describes the trends and characteristics of these designations. Details of RPD designations are not publicly disclosable; this research represents the first analysis of the RPD designation component of the program. Results We used an internal US Food and Drug Administration database to analyze all RPD designations between 2013 and 2022. Multiple characteristics were analyzed, including the diseases targeted by RPD designation, whether the product targeted a neonatal disease, product type (drug/biologic), and the level of evidence (preclinical/clinical) to support designation. There were 569 RPD designations during the study period. The top therapeutic areas were neurology (26%, n = 149), metabolism (23%, n = 131), oncology (18%, n = 105). The top diseases targeted by RPD designation were Duchenne muscular dystrophy, neuroblastoma, and sickle cell disease. Neonatology products represented 6% (n = 33), over half were for drug products and 38% were supported by clinical data. Conclusions The RPD PRV program was created to encourage development of new products for children. The results of this study establish that a wide range of diseases have seen development—from rare pediatric cancers to rare genetic disorders. Continued support of product development for children with rare diseases is needed to find treatments for all children with unmet needs.

Mease, Catherine (ORCID:000900050156198X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Specific Bacterial Taxa and Their Metabolite, DHPS, May Be Linked to Gut Dyshomeostasis in Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease, Parkinson’s Disease, and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Background: Neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) are multifactorial disorders frequently associated with gut dysbiosis, oxidative stress, and inflammation; however, the pathophysiological mechanisms remain poorly understood. Methods: Using untargeted mass spectrometry-based metabolomics and 16S sequencing of human stool, we investigated bacterial and metabolic dyshomeostasis in the gut microbiome associated with early disease stages across three NDDs—amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Alzheimer’s disease (AD), Parkinson’s disease (PD)—and healthy controls (HC). Results: We discovered a previously unrecognized link between a microbial-derived metabolite with an unknown role in human physiology, 2,3-dihydroxypropane-1-sulfonate (DHPS), and gut dysbiosis in NDDs. DHPS was downregulated in AD, ALS, and PD, while bacteria involved in DHPS metabolism, Eubacterium and Desulfovibrio, were increased in all disease cohorts. Additionally, select taxa within the Clostridia class had strong negative correlations to DHPS, suggesting a potential role in DHPS metabolism. A catabolic product of DHPS is hydrogen sulfide, and when in excess, it is known to promote inflammation, oxidative stress, mitochondrial damage, and gut dysbiosis, known hallmarks of NDDs. Conclusions: These findings suggest that cryptic sulfur metabolism via DHPS is a potential missing link in our current understanding of gut dysbiosis associated with NDD onset and progression. As this was a hypothesis generating study, more work is needed to elucidate the role of DHPS in gut dysbiosis and neurodegenerative diseases.

Nutrition & Dietetics↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of virus–host interaction mechanisms

We need to effectively combine the knowledge from surging literature with complex datasets to propose mechanistic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improving data interpretation and predicting key targets of intervention. Here, we describe a large-scale community effort to build an open access, interoperable and computable repository of COVID-19 molecular mechanisms. The COVID-19 Disease Map (C19DMap) is a graphical, interactive representation of disease-relevant molecular mechanisms linking many knowledge sources. Notably, it is a computational resource for graph-based analyses and disease modelling. To this end, we established a framework of tools, platforms and guidelines necessary for a multifaceted community of biocurators, domain experts, bioinformaticians and computational biologists. The diagrams of the C19DMap, curated from the literature, are integrated with relevant interaction and text mining databases. We demonstrate the application of network analysis and modelling approaches by concrete examples to highlight new testable hypotheses. This framework helps to find signatures of SARS-CoV-2 predisposition, treatment response or prioritisation of drug candidates. Such an approach may help deal with new waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics in the long-term perspective.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Age, vascular disease, and Alzheimer’s disease pathologies in amyloid negative elderly adults

Background: We recently reported that CSF phosphorylated tau (p-Tau 181 ) relative to Aβ 40 (CSF p-Tau/Aβ 40 ratio) was less noisy and increased associations with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) biomarkers compared to CSF p-Tau 181 alone. While elevations of CSF p-Tau/Aβ 40 can occur in amyloid-β (Aβ) negative (Aβ-) individuals, the factors associated with these elevations and their role in neurodegeneration and cognitive decline are unknown. We aim to explore factors associated with elevated tau in CSF, and how these elevated tau are related to neurodegeneration and cognitive decline in the absence of Aβ positivity. Methods: We examined relationships between CSF p-Tau/Aβ 40 , and CSF Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 , Aβ PET, and white matter hyperintensities (WMH) as well as vascular risk factors in 149 cognitively unimpaired and 52 impaired individuals who were presumably not on the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathway due to negative Aβ status on both CSF and PET. Subgroups had 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET and adjusted hippocampal volume (aHCV), and longitudinal measures of CSF, aHCV, FDG PET, and cognition data, so we examined CSF p-Tau/Aβ 40 associations with these measures as well. Results: Elevated CSF p-Tau/Aβ 40 was associated with older age, male sex, greater WMH, and hypertension as well as a pattern of hippocampal atrophy and temporoparietal hypometabolism characteristic of AD. Lower CSF Aβ 42 /Aβ 40 , higher WMH, and hypertension but not age, sex, Aβ PET, APOE-ε4 status, body mass index, smoking, and hyperlipidemia at baseline predicted CSF p-Tau/Aβ 40 increases over approximately 5 years of follow-up. The relationship between CSF p-Tau/Aβ 40 and subsequent cognitive decline was partially or fully explained by neurodegenerative measurements. Conclusions: These data provide surprising clues as to the etiology and significance of tau pathology in the absence of Aβ. It seems likely that, in addition to age, both cerebrovascular disease and subthreshold levels of Aβ are related to this tau accumulation. Crucially, this phenotype of CSF tau elevation in amyloid-negative individuals share features with AD such as a pattern of metabolic decline and regional brain atrophy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Antibodies Raised Against an Aβ Oligomer Mimic Recognize Pathological Features in Alzheimer’s Disease and Associated Amyloid-Disease Brain Tissue

Antibodies that target the β-amyloid peptide (Aβ) and its associated assemblies are important tools in Alzheimer’s disease research and have emerged as promising Alzheimer’s disease therapies. This paper reports the creation and characterization of a triangular Aβ trimer mimic composed of Aβ 17–36 β-hairpins and the generation and study of polyclonal antibodies raised against the Aβ trimer mimic. The Aβ trimer mimic is covalently stabilized by three disulfide bonds at the corners of the triangular trimer to create a homogeneous oligomer. Structural, biophysical, and cell-based studies demonstrate that the Aβ trimer mimic shares characteristics with oligomers of full-length Aβ. X-ray crystallography elucidates the structure of the trimer and reveals that four copies of the trimer assemble to form a dodecamer. SDS-PAGE, size exclusion chromatography, and dynamic light scattering reveal that the trimer also forms higher-order assemblies in solution. Cell-based toxicity assays show that the trimer elicits LDH release, decreases ATP levels, and activates caspase-3/7 mediated apoptosis. Immunostaining studies on brain slices from people who lived with Alzheimer’s disease and people who lived with Down syndrome reveal that the polyclonal antibodies raised against the Aβ trimer mimic recognize pathological features including different types of Aβ plaques and cerebral amyloid angiopathy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differentiating Vaccine-Related Fowl Cholera from Naturally Occurring Disease

Vaccine-related fowl cholera must be considered when flock mortality increases after use of a live Pasteurella multocida vaccine product. All registered live vaccines serotype as Heddleston 3,4; however, in some regions this is also the most common serotype of outbreak isolates in broiler breeders and turkeys. Therefore, serotyping may not be useful for diagnosing vaccine-related fowl cholera. This project sought to apply a vaccine-specific test to differentiate vaccine-related disease from naturally occurring outbreaks. Results indicate that vaccine strains were commonly isolated from broiler breeders exhibiting signs of fowl cholera post vaccination, but some of these isolates exhibited only serotype 4 antigenicity. The isolates’ lipopolysaccharides, the target antigen for serotyping, contained compositional changes that may explain the varying serotype results and virulence of the commercial preparations. Furthermore, these results suggest that vaccine-related disease may be common in broiler breeders, and live commercial vaccine preparations need to be assessed for serotype and titer prior to use in order to reduce vaccine-related fowl cholera.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids Mend Macrophage Transcriptome, Glycome, and Phenotype in the Patients with Neurodegenerative Diseases, Including Alzheimer’s Disease

Macrophages of healthy subjects have a pro-resolution phenotype, upload amyloid-β (Aβ) into endosomes, and degrade Aβ, whereas macrophages of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) generally have a pro-inflammatory phenotype and lack energy for brain clearance of Aβ. To clarify the pathogenesis of sporadic AD and therapeutic effects of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) with vitamins B and D and antioxidants on monocyte/macrophage (MM) migration in the AD brain, MM transcripts in energy and Aβ degradation, MM glycome, and macrophage clearance of Aβ. We followed for 31.3 months (mean) ten PUFA-supplemented neurodegenerative patients: 3 with subjective cognitive impairment (SCI), 2 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 3 MCI/vascular cognitive impairment, 2 with dementia with Lewy bodies, and 7 non-supplemented caregivers. We examined: monocyte migration in the brain and a blood-brain barrier model by immunochemistry and electron microscopy; macrophage transcriptome by RNAseq; macrophage glycome by N-glycan profiling and LTQ-Orbitrap mass spectrometry; and macrophage phenotype and phagocytosis by immunofluorescence. MM invade Aβ plaques, upload but do not degrade Aβ, and release Aβ into vessels, which develop cerebrovascular amyloid angiopathy (CAA); PUFA upregulate energy and Aβ degradation enzyme transcripts in macrophages; PUFA enhance sialylated N-glycans in macrophages; PUFA reduce oxidative stress and increase pro-resolution MM phenotype, mitochondrial membrane potential, and Aβ phagocytosis (p < 0.001). Macrophages of SCI, MCI, and AD patients have interrelated defects in the transcriptome, glycome, Aβ phagocytosis, and Aβ degradation. PUFA mend macrophage transcriptome, enrich glycome, enhance Aβ clearance, and benefit the cognition of early-stage AD patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus 2B Viroporin on Expression and Extraction of Mammalian Cell Culture Produced Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus-like Particles

To improve the production of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) molecular vaccines, we sought to understand the effects of the FMD virus (FMDV) 2B viroporin in an experimental, plasmid-based, virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine. Inclusion of the FMDV viroporin 2B into the human Adenovirus 5 vectored FMD vaccine enhanced transgene expression despite independent 2B expression negatively affecting cell viability. Evaluating both wildtype 2B and mutants with disrupted viroporin activity, we confirmed that viroporin activity is detrimental to overall transgene expression when expressed independently. However, the incorporation of 2B into an FMD molecular vaccine construct containing a wildtype FMDV 3C protease, a viral encoded protease responsible for processing structural proteins, resulted in enhancement of transgene expression, validating previous observations. This benefit to transgene expression was negated when using the FMDV 3CL127P mutant, which has reduced processing of host cellular proteins, a reversion resulting from 2B viroporin activity. Inclusion of 2B into VLP production constructs also adversely impacted antigen extraction, a possible side effect of 2B-dependent rearrangement of cellular membranes. These results demonstrate that inclusion of 2B enhanced transgene expression when a wildtype 3C protease is present but was detrimental to transgene expression with the 3CL127P mutant. This has implications for future molecular FMD vaccine constructs, which may utilize mutant FMDV 3C proteases.

2B↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breast Conservation in Women with Autoimmune Disease: The Role of Active Autoimmune Disease and Hypofractionation on Acute and Late Toxicity in a Case-Controlled Series

Autoimmune connective tissue disease (CTD) has historically represented a relative contraindication to breast conservation (BC) among patients with early-stage breast cancer. Controversy exists regarding the use of hypofractionated radiation therapy (RT) among patients with CTDs. We evaluated acute and late toxicity in patients with breast cancer and CTD treated with BC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗