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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

SPADES (Scalable Parallel Discrete Events Simulation) [SWR-24-99]

SPADES (Solver for PArallel Discrete Event Simulation) is an open-source parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) package built on the AMReX library. Targeted at solving discrete event systems in parallel, this software package aims to be performance portable and scalable on heterogeneous computing architectures, e.g., graphic processing units (GPU). SPADES implements optimistic synchronization with rollback through an implementation of the Time Warp algorithm. An alternative conservative synchronization approach is also implemented using the Lower Bound on Incoming Time Stamp. In our implementation, logical processes are represented as cells in a grid and event messages are represented as particles. SPADES supports various parallel decomposition strategies, including the use of the Message Passing Interface (MPI) and OpenMP threading. All major GPU architectures (e.g., Intel, AMD, NVIDIA) are supported through the use of performance portability functionalities implemented in AMReX. The SPADES software is released in NREL Software Record SWR-24-99 “SPADES (Scalable Parallel Discrete Events Simulation)”.

Henry de Frahan, Marc [National Renewable Energy L↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Discrete Event Simulation Approach to Nuclear Arms Enterprise Modeling and Analysis

We overview a discrete event simulation of an arms control enterprise developed to familiarize individuals with the challenges of verification and monitoring at the enterprise level. We will review the design of the simulation applied to a notional country’s nuclear arms enterprise. This simulation models how these nuclear weapons move over their lifetime from deployment, storage, maintenance, and dismantlement. With this output information, we then characterize the “ground truth” of the enterprise. Next, based on these data, we built a sophisticated analysis engine designed to provide treaty monitoring and verification information to support partner country inspectors and their evaluation. This tool was designed to be used as a game, enabling teams to compete on developing the best inspection plan to determine if the host country is complying with the conceptual treaty developed for this effort.

Pulliam, Rachel M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator at Fermilab FAST/IOTA

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic event loop in a specialized discrete event simulator architecture. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, several APIs were implemented as final user interfaces - a fully asynchronous EPICS soft IOC, a gRPC-based Data Pool Manager (DPM), and legacy ACNET protocols. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges handling live data assimilation and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin of Scalable Quantum Clouds

Quantum computing has emerged as a transformative technology capable of solving complex problems beyond the limit of classical systems. The rapid development of quantum processors has led to the proliferation of cloud-based quantum computing services offered by platforms such as IBM, Google, and Amazon. These platforms introduce unique challenges in resource allocation, job scheduling, and multi-device orchestration as quantum workloads become increasingly complex. In this work, we present a digital twin of quantum cloud infrastructures: a framework designed to model and simulate the behavior of real quantum cloud systems. Developed in Python using the SimPy discrete-event simulation library, the framework replicates key aspects of quantum cloud environments, including detailed quantum device modeling, job lifecycle management, and job fidelity. It incorporates noise-aware fidelity estimation, making it the first of its kind to simulate superconducting gate-based quantum cloud systems at an administrative level with job fidelity. We present use cases as proof of concept, demonstrating that our quantum cloud simulation framework can act as a digital twin of a quantum cloud and support the modeling and implementation of practical systems.

Luo, Waylon [Kent State University]↗

DOE OSTI2026

APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator for Fermilab

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic discrete event simulator. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, both EPICS and ACNET frontends are supported. Recently, we have begun transitioning to a new community lattice standard, PALS, as well as developing standardized infrastructure for data ingest and normalization to prepare for model calibration during FAST proton injector commissioning. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges, and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel Results Visualization for Dynamic PSA and New Modeling Features in EMRALD

The Event Modeling Risk Assessment Linked Diagram (EMRALD) tool, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), was designed to simplify the creation of dynamic models and support various research projects. One of the primary goals of EMRALD was to provide visual methods for modeling. EMRALD consists of two main components: a web-based user interface for model development and a solve engine for running model simulations. Over time, it has evolved to meet the diverse needs of its users. Initially, EMRALD's results were simple text outputs with final key state percentages and uncertainty bounds. However, because EMRALD utilizes a three-phase discrete event simulation and tracks the paths of each simulation run leading to a key state, there is significant potential to analyze large sets of path results data, including state paths, events, and timing. Visualizing this data meaningfully posed a challenge. To address this, a novel time-based Sankey diagram was developed. EMRALD exports results data in a format that can be opened in this Sankey viewer, allowing users to visualize paths, occurrences, events, and probability data for the entire simulation run in a single diagram. Moreover, when EMRALD was first created, there were limited tools capable of meeting its graphical requirements, many of which are no longer supported. In 2024, a new web-based interface was developed using modern graphing tools, enabling additional modeling features. This paper discusses the new dynamic PSA results visualization capability and the enhanced modeling tools available in EMRALD.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A simulation framework for evaluating electronic order workflows in integrated health records

Electronic health record (EHR) systems are critical to modern healthcare delivery, yet the dynamic workflows that govern electronic order processing remain underexplored. Inefficiencies in these digital pathways can cause delays in care, repetitive workloads, and even patient harm. This study presents a discrete-event simulation framework used to reconstruct and evaluate EHR-based order workflows in a large integrated healthcare system. Using real-world data extracted from the Veterans Health Administration’s Corporate Data Warehouse, the authors mapped order events to standardized state transitions and modeled their progression across different facilities of varying complexity levels. After being calibrated with empirical distributions of transition times and validated against observed time-in-system metrics, the simulation demonstrates close alignment with historical performance. Scenario analyses reveal that resource capacity constraints significantly amplify the impact of electronic order surges, which are reflected in the disproportionate growth in backlogs and processing delays. Adjustments in transition probabilities further increased recirculation and extended workflow paths. Network-based analysis identified Reserved, InProgress, and Completed as structurally critical states that function as hubs within the process network but the transitions in-between also act as major bottlenecks. These results showcased the effectiveness of simulation-based approaches in monitoring EHR order processing performance and evaluating consequences of workflow changes on healthcare network resources planning. The proposed simulation framework provides a scalable data-driven tool to support operational decision-making and improve the efficiency of electronic order management in complex healthcare environments.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic and life-cycle analysis of strategies for improving operability and biomass quality in catalytic fast pyrolysis of forest residues

Many of the challenges faced by the first commercial biorefineries were associated with feedstock handling, quality, and cost. Strategies are needed to enable further expansion of biorefineries and meet the growing demand for bio-based fuels and products. Here, we examine 2 key feedstock challenges and mitigation strategies in the context of a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) biorefinery: (1) the operability of the feed system, which may be improved by modifying the minimum particle size fed to the reactor, and (2) the quality of the biomass, which may be improved by employing air classification to remove undesirable material and increase fuel yields. We conduct techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis for these strategies, employing a discrete event simulation model for biomass preprocessing combined with a series of correlations developed from literature data and a rigorous CFP conversion model. Our results highlight the importance of balancing increased cost and material losses from preprocessing against improved operability and fuel yields. Economics and sustainability were optimized when operating at the lowest minimum particle size, emphasizing the importance of minimizing material losses while maintaining the operability of the process. Economically, additional costs and material losses from air classification could be acceptable due to improved biomass conversion, and an optimum air classification speed was identified; however, the fuel GHG emissions were minimized when air classification was not used. Valorizing material removed during preprocessing as a coproduct could improve economics and sustainability, decreasing the burden of material losses.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Solar PV Deployment in Manufacturing: A Morphological Matrix and Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach

The growing energy demand of the industrial sector and the need for sustainable solutions highlight the importance of efficient decision making in solar photovoltaic (PV) implementation. Selecting optimal PV configuration is complex due to the interdependent technical, economic, environmental, and social factors involved. This study introduces an integrated decision-making method combining a morphological matrix and fuzzy TOPSIS to systematically select and rank optimal PV system configurations for manufacturing firms. While the morphological matrix exhaustively examines possible design solutions based on sensing, smart, sustainable, and social (S4) attributes, the fuzzy TOPSIS method ranks the alternatives by handling uncertainty in decision making. A case study conducted in a Mexican manufacturing company validates the methodology’s effectiveness. The optimal PV configuration identified comprehensively addresses operational and sustainability criteria, covering all lifecycle stages. This approach demonstrates quantitative superiority and greater robustness compared to existing fuzzy TOPSIS-based methods for solar PV applications. The findings highlight the practical value of data-driven, multi-criteria decision making for industrial solar energy adoption, enhancing project feasibility, cost efficiency, and environmental compliance. Future research will incorporate discrete event simulation (DES) to further refine energy consumption strategies in manufacturing.

Briceño, Citlaly Pérez↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid PDES Simulation of HPC Networks Using Zombie Packets

Although high-fidelity network simulations have proven to be reliable and cost-effective tools to peer into architectural questions for high-performance computing (HPC) networks, they incur a high resource cost. The time spent in simulating a single millisecond of network traffic in the highest detail can take hours, even for static, well-behaved traffic patterns such as uniform random. Surrogate models offer a significant reduction in runtime, yet they cannot serve as complete replacements and should only be used when appropriate. Thus, there is a need for hybrid modeling, where high-fidelity simulation and surrogates run side-by-side. Here, we present a surrogate model for HPC networks in which: packets bypass the network, while the network state is left untouched, i.e., suspended. To bypass the network, we use historical data to estimate the arrival time at which every packet should be scheduled at; to suspend the network, all in-flight packets are scheduled to arrive at their destinations, and are kept in the system to awaken as zombies when switching back to high-fidelity. Speedup for a hybrid model is relative to the proportion of surrogate to high-fidelity. This light-weight surrogate obtained up to 76× speedup. Keeping the zombies in the network showed an increase in the accuracy of the high-fidelity simulation on restart when compared to restarting the network from an empty state.

HPC networks↗

DOE OSTI2026

V1G Frequency Regulation: Algorithm Development, Validation & Analysis at Scale

Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed and validated a high-fidelity digital twin of a smart charging (V1G) ecosystem to model the participation of up to 1,000 unique electric vehicles (EVs) in the PJM frequency regulation market. Utilizing a discrete-event framework, the simulation models complex interactions, from dynamic grid signals (updated every 2 seconds) to individual EV charging dynamics. The simulation incorporates multiple EV models created from real-world lab test data. Researchers tested multiple control algorithms to balance the dual objectives of maximizing aggregator’s revenue and driver charging needs. Results demonstrate that aggregated EVs function as a controllable, highly effective grid resource, achieving high PJM Performance Scores (80–90%). Additionally, an optimized, market-aware bidding strategy was identified as key to profitability. The platform was shown to provide drivers with an average charging discount of nearly 50%. The algorithm was further validated in the lab using production EVs and charging stations to compare simulation results with real-world performance.

Manne, Nithin↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Sampling-Based Bi-Fidelity Stochastic Trust Region Method for Stochastic Derivative-Free Optimization

Bi-fidelity stochastic optimization has gained increasing attention as an efficient approach to reduce computational costs by leveraging a low-fidelity (LF) model to optimize an expensive high-fidelity (HF) objective. In this paper, we propose ASTRO-BFDF, an adaptive sampling trust-region method specifically designed for unconstrained bi-fidelity stochastic derivative-free optimization problems. In ASTRO-BFDF, the LF function serves two purposes: (i) to identify better iterates for the HF function when the optimization process indicates a high correlation between them and (ii) to reduce the variance of the HF function estimates using bi-fidelity Monte Carlo (BFMC). The algorithm dynamically determines sample sizes while adaptively choosing between crude Monte Carlo and BFMC to balance the trade-off between optimization and sampling errors. We prove that the iterates generated by ASTRO-BFDF converge to a first-order stationary point almost surely. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments on synthetic benchmarks and simulation optimization problems involving discrete event systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Used Nuclear Fuel Management Using the Next Generation System Analysis Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the National effort to manage the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, encompassing the safe transportation, storage/staging, and/or eventual disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is DOE’s discrete-event, agent-based simulation tool designed to model the full life cycle of UNF from reactor discharge to final disposal. NGSAM supports the DOE Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition by enabling a detailed, scenario-based analysis of logistics, infrastructure, and shipping strategies. NGSAM replaces legacy models with a modern, flexible platform built on Repast Simphony and enhanced by the Process Analysis Tool. NGSAM simulates the movement and interaction of individual fuel assemblies with system components such as canisters, casks, railcars, and facilities. The model integrates with the Java Transportation Operations Model to plan and execute transportation scenarios, supporting both constrained and unconstrained resource allocation. Key features include customizable allocation and acceptance algorithms, detailed facility-level operations, and a Quick Edit tool for rapid scenario adjustments. NGSAM supports multimodal transportation modeling (e.g. rail, road, barge) and provides comprehensive cost, schedule, and infrastructure data. NGSAM utilizes data from sources such as DOE’s STANDARDS UNF database and DOE’s Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation, while also allowing user-defined inputs for scenario customization. NGSAM enables stakeholders to evaluate complex UNF management strategies, assess system performance under varying assumptions, and inform decision making for future infrastructure investments. Its modular architecture and integration with other Integrated Waste Management System tools make it a critical asset for planning the safe and efficient disposition of the Nation’s growing UNF inventory.

Craig, Brian [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robotics for Energy Infrastructure Construction on Earth and Beyond: Pilot Study Exploring Level 3-4 Semi-Autonomous Installation of a Reduced-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant Prototype: Preprint

There is a growing need to build energy infrastructure at massive scale on both Earth and in space. On Earth, increasing electricity demand from applications such as AI data centers is driving rapid expansion of power systems, while in space, long-duration missions such as lunar operations require reliable and resilient energy infrastructure that can be deployed quickly. These needs outpace the capabilities of conventional construction methods. Robotic construction offers a path to faster, lower-cost, and more consistent deployment, yet most existing approaches focus on automating individual tasks rather than end-to-end assembly. The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Colorado School of Mines, has been investigating robotics and automation strategies for rapid end-to-end energy infrastructure construction. This paper presents a pilot study demonstrating level 3-4 semi-autonomous, end-to-end robotic assembly of a reduced-scale photovoltaic power plant prototype under terrestrial conditions. The approach combines hardware redesign of photovoltaic components for robotic compatibility, discrete-event and physics-based robotic simulations in synthetic environments, and sim-to-real deployment to execute end-to-end robotic assembly of[NM1.1][NM1.2] tracking components, structural members, photovoltaic modules, and embedded electrical connections. The pilot identifies key limitations like tolerance management, perception and localization, end effector capability, fastening methods, and multi-physics simulation fidelity, that must be addressed to enable end-to-end robotic assembly of full-scale energy infrastructure. The study highlights how these insights inform scaling strategies for terrestrial energy infrastructure and adaptation to unstructured and extreme environments, including off-world scenarios such as robotic assembly of vertical tall lunar towers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electron-Proton Scattering Event Generation using Structured Tokenization

Recent work such as Omnijet-$\alpha$ has demonstrated that effective tokenization combined with transformer-based architectures can produce effective foundation models for jet physics. While tokenization may help models capture generalizable event characteristics, it also introduces discretization errors that may compromise the precision required for downstream physics analyses. As the number and complexity of the particle features grow, these errors are likely to grow proportionally. In this study, we investigate new tokenization strategies to improve the application of generative transformer models to \textsc{Pythia8} simulations of electron-proton scattering at the Electron-Ion Collider. Specifically, we propose a feature-based structured tokenization approach that utilizes multiple tokens per particle, improving expressivity, while reducing the total number of unique tokens needed. We evaluate this method against grid-based binning, K-means clustering, and vector-quantized variational auto-encoders on the event simulations. Our results show that feature-based structured tokenization reduces discretization error, leading to more accurate generative modeling of particle-level events.

Goldenberg, Steven [Thomas Jefferson National Acce↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electron-Proton Scattering Event Generation using Structured Tokenization

Goldenberg, Steven [Thomas Jefferson National Acce↗

DOE OSTI2024

Virtual Time III, Part 3: Throttling and Message Cancellation

This is Part 3 of a trio of papers that unify in a natural way the two historically distinct parallel discrete event synchronization paradigms, optimistic and conservative, combining the best properties of both into a single framework called Unified Virtual Time (UVT). In this part, we survey the synchronization effects that can be achieved by restricting to corner cases the relationships permitted among the control variables, GVT, CVT, TVT, and LVT, which were defined in Part 1. Here we also survey various throttling policies from the literature and describe how they can be implemented in UVT by controlling the value of TVT, including policies that can take advantage of rollback in addition to LP blocking. A significant result is a new category of efficient and higher precision throttling algorithms for optimistic execution that are based on optimistic lookahead, defined in a way that is symmetric to what we now call the conservative lookahead information that is traditionally used for conservative synchronization. Finally, we present a novel algorithm allowing the choice between lazy and aggressive cancellation to be made on a message-by-message basis using either external logic expressed in the model code, or policy code internal to the simulator, or a mixture of both.

throttling↗