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Disaster-survivable cloud-network mapping

Cloud-computing services are provided to consumers through a network of servers and network equipment. Cloud-network (CN) providers virtualize resources [e.g., virtual machine (VM) and virtual network (VN)] for efficient and secure resource allocation. Disasters are one of the worst threats for CNs as they can causemassive disruptions and CN disconnection. A disaster may also induce post-disaster correlated, cascading failures which can disconnect more CNs. Survivable virtual-network embedding (SVNE) approaches have been studied to protect VNs against single physical-link/- node and dual physical-link failures in communication infrastructure, but massive disruptions due to a disaster and their consequences can make SVNE approaches insufficient to guarantee cloud-computing survivability. In this work, we study the problem of survivable CN mapping from disaster. We consider risk assessment, VM backup location, and post-disaster survivability to reduce the risk of failure and probability of CN disconnection and the penalty paid by operators due to loss of capacity.We formulate the proposed approach as an integer linear program and study two scenarios: a natural disaster, e.g., earthquake and a human-made disaster, e.g., weapons-of-mass-destruction attack. Finally, our illustrative examples show that our approach reduces the risk of CN disconnection and penalty up to 90% compared with a baseline CN mapping approach and increases the CN survivability up to 100% in both scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solar Photovoltaics in Severe Weather: Cost Considerations for Storm Hardening PV Systems for Resilience

Solar photovoltaic (PV) power has many advantages as a resilient power source, including the ability to provide power after a natural disaster. While solar arrays often survive severe weather events, systems are occasionally compromised and left unable to provide power. For PV systems to act as resilient power providers, they must remain operational. Building a system that is more likely to survive a storm comes at a cost, though. Previous efforts have identified various system measures and practices that can increase the likelihood of a PV system surviving a severe weather event. But what is the cost premium for a storm hardened PV system? This report provides initial estimates for the up-front cost premiums for various methods of storm hardening PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Institute of Resilient Communities [Book Chapter]

Here, resilience is the key to a prosperous global and modern society; Efforts to mitigate physical damage, economic loss, and to protect social and political infrastructures in response to catastrophic events, such as a nuclear accident or a natural disaster, are essential for communities to survive and thrive in the aftermath of such incidents. The 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident serves as an example of the risks associated with advanced technologies and the need to minimize physical as well as psychological effects on local and global communities. Other examples can be found reflecting the misperception of risks including concerns associated with vaccination or genetically modified organisms. While we have to recognize the risks associated with the development, implementation, and utilization of advanced technologies, we also have to recognize that the impact of not adopting them can have much more detrimental effects to individuals, communities, and even societies. We have established the Institute for Resilient Communities in Berkeley, CA in collaboration with Japanese partners to address the needs for better scientific and technological capabilities to assess, predict, and minimize the impact of disruptive events in the future and to enhance the understanding of associated risks to the public. While the initial focus resides in radiological resilience and is closely related to the events in Fukushima more than 5 years ago, the goal is to establish a broader framework for researchers, educators, and communities to enhance resilience locally and globally together.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Personal Resiliency Index

A plethora of information exists in literature focusing on different aspects of personal resilience. There are a number of questionnaires available to measure resilience in different aspects of an individual’s life, such as mental health. However, there is a lack of comprehensive information on the subject of personal resilience to natural and man-made disasters. A Personal Resiliency Index identifying four key areas of resilience related to natural and man-made disasters will help fill this gap by providing individuals an idea of where the stand comparatively to their peers on this topics. As an increasing amount of man-made disasters, natural disasters and pandemics occur, we realize that preparation is key.?“Crisis can be experienced at individual, group and mass levels and at local, regional, national or supra-national levels.” 1? Dr. Ron Fisher, the principal investigator has over 20 years’ critical infrastructure protection including developing vulnerability assessment methodology, risk and resiliency analyses and infrastructure interdependencies. Dr. Fisher and his team will research and develop a voluntary survey which evaluates the user’s personal resilience level to natural and man-made disasters. The research team is focusing on 4 main categories:? financial resilience, cyber security, physical and mental health, and emergency preparedness.?The web based application will?provide a resilience score for each of the categories and also a comprehensive personal resiliency score based on the voluntary survey. The application will also provide feedback to the user on actions to take to become more resilient to natural and man-made disasters. Through this effort, we will also be able to identify the areas where participants are excelling as well as opportunities for improvement in terms of resilience. This information will provide insight into areas of further investigation and identify potential areas of support needed for the general public to adopt strategies to become more resilient. 1 Lynott, William. “Surviving a Natural (or Man-Made) Disaster: How to Prepare for and Bounce Back? from a Crisis in Your Business | 2018-02-01 | NOLN.” Home Page, NOLN, 1 Feb. 2018, https://www.noln.net/articles/2683-surviving-a-natural-or-man-made-disaster-how-to-prepare-for-and-bounce-back-from-a-crisis-in-your-business.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Observations of PV Systems Post-Hurricane

NREL's observations of post-hurricane photovoltaic (PV) systems were shared with PV reliability researchers during the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop held in Lakewood, Colorado the week of February 26, 2018. NREL hosts an annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) so that solar technology experts can share information leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace. This presentation is intended to share real world examples of PV survivability during and after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-term effects of ionizing radiation after the Chernobyl accident: Possible contribution of historic dose

Highlights: • Paper considers the role of delayed non-targeted effects (DNTE) in environmental radiation protection (ERP). • Comparison of the DNTE dose response relationship (DRR) in Chernobyl birds 9–11 generations after accident. • Dose reconstruction suggests the pattern of DNTE induced by the historical dose is similar datasets. • Conclude the historic dose contribution is important to consider. The impact of the Chernobyl NPP accident on the environment is documented to be greater than expected, with higher mutation rates than expected at the current, chronic low dose rate. In this paper we suggest that the historic acute exposure and resulting non-targeted effects (NTE) such as delayed mutations and genomic instability could account at least in part for currently measured mutation rates and provide an initial test of this concept. Data from Møller and Mousseau on the phenotypic mutation rates of Chernobyl birds 9–11 generations post the Chernobyl accident were used and the reconstructed dose response for mutations was compared with delayed reproductive death dose responses (as a measure of genomic instability) in cell cultures exposed to a similar range of doses. The dose to birds present during the Chernobyl NPP accident was reconstructed through the external pathway due to Cs-137 with an estimate of the uncertainty associated with such reconstruction. The percentage of Chernobyl birds several generations after the accident without mutations followed the general shape of the clonogenic survival percentage of the progeny of irradiated cells, and it plateaued at low doses. This is the expected result if NTE of radiation are involved. We suggest therefore, that NTE induced by the historic dose may play a role in generating mutations in progeny many generations following the initial disaster.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying and Monetizing Renewable Energy Resiliency

Energy resiliency has been thrust to the forefront by recent severe weather events and natural disasters. Billions of dollars are lost each year due to power outages. This article highlights the unique value renewable energy hybrid systems (REHS), comprised of solar, energy storage, and generators, provide in increasing resiliency. We present a methodology to quantify the amount and value of resiliency provided by REHS, and ways to monetize this resiliency value through insurance premium discounts. A case study of buildings in New York City demonstrates how implementing REHS in place of traditional backup diesel generators can double the amount of outage survivability, with an added value of $781,200. For a Superstorm Sandy type event, results indicate that insurance premium reductions could support up to 4% of the capital cost of REHS, and the potential exists to prevent up to $2.5 billion in business interruption losses with increased REHS deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Monitoring critical facilities by using advanced RF devices

The ability to monitor critical environment parameters of nuclear plants at all times, particularly during and after a disruptive accident, is vital for the safety of plant personnel, rescue and recovery crews, and the surrounding communities. Conventional hard-wired assets that depend on supplied power may be decimated as a result of such events, as witnessed in the Japanese Fukushima nuclear power plant in March 2011. Self-powered monitoring devices operating on a wireless platform, on the other hand, may survive such calamity and remain functional. The devices would be pre-positioned at strategic locations, particularly where the dangerous build-up of contamination and radiation may preclude subsequent manned entrance and surveillance. Equipped with sensors for β-γ radiation, neutrons, hydrogen gas, temperature, humidity, pressure, and water level, as well as with criticality alarms and imaging equipment for heat, video, and other capabilities, these devices can provide vital surveillance information for assessing the extent of plant damage, mandating responses (e.g., evacuation before impending hydrogen explosion), and enabling overall safe and efficient recovery in a disaster. A radio frequency identification (RFID)-based system - called ARG-US - may be modified and adapted for this task. Developed by Argonne for DOE, ARG-US (meaning 'watchful guardian') has been used successfully to monitor and track sensitive nuclear materials packages at DOE sites. It utilizes sensors in the tags to continuously monitor the state of health of the packaging and promptly disseminates alarms to authorized users when any of the preset sensor thresholds is violated. By adding plant-specific monitoring sensors to the already strong sensor suite and adopting modular hardware, firmware, and software subsystems that are tailored for specific subsystems of a plant, a Remote Area Modular Monitoring (RAMM) system, built on a wireless sensor network (WSN) platform, is being developed by Argonne National Laboratory. ARG-US RAMM, powered by on-board battery, can sustain extended autonomous surveillance operation during and following an incident. The benefits could be invaluable to such critical facilities as nuclear power plants, research and test reactors, fuel cycle manufacturing centers, spent-fuel dry-cask storage facilities, and other nuclear installations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Selective Shielding Bone Marrow: An Approach to Create Personal Protective Equipment for Gamma Radiation

Many casualties of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, and many of the firefighters who first responded to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, became ill with acute radiation syndrome (ARS). Most of the people who do not recover from ARS will die within a few weeks to a few months after exposure, with the primary cause of death being the destruction of the body's bone marrow (BM). This is exemplified by the Chernobyl firefighters, the majority of whom received whole body doses between 0.8 and 10 Gy, and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) final report on the disaster concluded that the underlying cause of death of all 28 firefighters who succumbed to ARS was from bone marrow failure. BM is comprised of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) which are responsible for the constant renewal of blood cells. Due to their high rate of proliferation, HSCs are especially vulnerable to ionizing radiation, but are endowed with remarkable regenerative potential. Owing to their central role in blood production, lethal irradiation of HSCs leads to death from severe anemia, infection and internal bleeding. This relationship between high doses of radiation and HSC apoptosis has led to the use of HSC transplantation as a life-saving intervention in cases of acute exposure. This is demonstrable in medical practice, where thousands of individuals have undergone supra-lethal Total Body Irradiation (TBI) for purposes of cancer therapy, and were rescued by well-matched BM transplantation. Indeed, life-threatening damage may be reversed by BM transplantation in individuals receiving doses of radiation of up to 10 Gy. At doses > 10 Gy, damage to gastrointestinal (GI) tissue may become a limiting factor in survival. Remarkably, in the common procedure of BM transplantation, the number of HSCs extracted from a single active BM site containing less than 5% of the donor's BM tissue is sufficient to support the complete reconstitution of the HSC compartment in a lethally irradiated recipient. This capacity of BM to expand and replenish is due to the high regenerative potential of the HSCs it harbors. In contrast to mature blood cells, which are dispersed throughout the body, HSCs are confined to the bones, allowing for effective targeted shielding. This has been confirmed in several animal models, where sparing the HSC-rich area of a subject receiving otherwise full-body irradiation is sufficient to support hematopoietic functions and allow survival. Approximately 48% of the human body's active BM is contained within the lumbar vertebrae and the pelvic region. This high concentration of BM makes the pelvic region an ideal area to shield for preventing the serious hematopoietic effects of radiation exposure. Stem-cell rich tissues like active BM are also more sensitive to the stochastic effects (i.e. cancer) of radiation exposure. The high amount of BM in the pelvic region, combined with the presence of the sensitive gastrointestinal system and female gonads in this same area of the body allows for the possibility of significantly reducing stochastic effects of radiation by limiting radiation exposure to this vital area. Thus, shielding this region holds great promise for both acute and protracted exposures. Thus, a specialized radiation shielding device for the protection of active BM concentrations is presented here. This belt-like selective shielding device focuses on the protection of BM that is present in the pelvis and hip bones, protecting the medullary volume from which BM is commonly extracted for transplantation (i.e. the iliac bones) while allowing relatively unhindered movement of the wearer. In order to optimize the use of shielding materials towards the protection of active BM, the shielding uniquely brings into account the natural shielding properties of human tissue, with thickness being inversely related to the thickness and radiation attenuation of the underlying tissue at each point surrounding the area being protected. The findings resulting from both experimental and simulation testing of this selective shielding device are presented here.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes large economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair crews and resources, the expediting of the restoration process, and the reduction of outage durations for customers, in response to severe blackouts due to extreme weather hazards.

Automated feeder switch↗