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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Next-generation geospatial-temporal information technologies for disaster management

Traditional geographic information systems (GIS) have been disrupted by the emergence of Big Data in the form of geo-coded raster, vector, and time-series Internet-of-Things data. This article discusses the application of new scalable technologies that go far beyond relational databases and file-based storage on spinning disk or tape to incorporate both storage and processing data in the same platform. The roles of the Apache Hadoop Distributed File Systems and NoSQL key-value stores such as the Apache Hbase are discussed, along with indexing schemes that optimally support geospatial-temporal use. Here, we highlight how this new approach can rapidly search multiple GIS data layers to obtain insights in the context of early warning, impact evaluation, response, and recovery to earthquake and wildfire disasters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

What matters the most? Understanding individual tornado preparedness using machine learning

Scholars from various disciplines have long attempted to identify the variables most closely associated with individual preparedness. Therefore, we now have much more knowledge regarding these factors and their association with individual preparedness behaviors. However, it has not been sufficiently discussed how decisive many of these factors are in encouraging preparedness. In this article, we seek to examine what factors, among the many examined in previous studies, are most central to engendering emergency preparedness in individuals particularly for tornadoes by utilizing a relatively uncommon machine learning technique in disaster management literature. Using unique survey data, we find that in the case of tornado preparedness the most decisive variables are related to personal experiences and economic circumstances rather than basic demographics. Our findings contribute to scholarly endeavors to understand and promote individual tornado preparedness behaviors by highlighting the variables most likely to shape tornado preparedness at an individual level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling evacuation demand during no-notice emergency events: Tour formation behavior

Disastrous events have been drastically increasing – both in frequency and destructive capacity – over the past few years. While advance-notice events have received a great deal of attention in the literature of disaster management, not much attention so far has been given to the no-notice events mainly because of the scarcity of data. As an attempt to address this critical gap, the current study proposes a disaggregate evacuation demand framework to understand evacuees’ travel behavior in case of no-notice emergency events. Here, the proposed framework comprises four main steps of evacuation decision, evacuation planning, tour formation, and activity schedule update. This article is dedicated to the introduction of the framework structure and elaboration on the tour formation step. In this step, we first estimate the total number of intermediate stops, travel time, and distance of the evacuation tours for those who decide to evacuate through a joint modeling structure and then, determine the type of each intermediate stop (if any). It is found that a broad range of factors including evacuees’ demographic profiles, built-environment attributes, and characteristics of the disastrous event plays a significant role in people’s evacuation behavior during no-notice emergency events. The findings of this study can assist responsible agencies in understanding evacuees’ complex behavior, and consequently, in devising effective strategies to alleviate economic damages and casualties resulted by such events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Global 30 Arcsecond Annual Global Gridded Population Datasets from 2000 to 2022

Abstract Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) annually develops the LandScan Global (LSG) dataset, a 30 arcsecond global gridded population dataset representing global ambient human population distribution. This multivariable dasymetric model disaggregates census counts within administrative boundaries using ancillary data. Each country’s distribution reflects cultural and socioeconomic patterns; manual validations yield a unique global dataset for assessing populations at risk. For over two decades, LSG has been a standard for estimating populations at risk, aiding U.S. federal government, academia and humanitarian organizations. During disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti earthquake and geopolitical crises such as the Syrian civil war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, LSG supported scientific and operational communities in emergency response and recovery. In 2022, LSG datasets from 2000 onward were made publicly available through ORNL’s LandScan Portal. This data descriptor details our methodology and the application of geospatial science and machine learning to geographic and demographic data, highlighting uses in urban resiliency, emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operational resilience metrics for power systems with penetration of renewable resources

Abstract Modern power grid is evolving towards carbon neutrality by deploying increasing amount of renewable energy resources. However, the impact of renewable generation on power system planning and operation is not sufficiently investigated, especially the capability of renewable penetrated power systems to resist and recover from major disturbances, which is a critical concern for system operators. Novel metrics and evaluation methodologies are needed to depict systems’ ability in response to events caused by natural disasters, and quantitatively evaluate system performance in various time scales. In this paper, operational resilience metrics are proposed for power systems with penetration of renewable energy resources based on transient stability principles. A systematic methodology is proposed to quantitatively assess the evolution of system performance during various stages of the disaster process. Based on the proposed metrics, a resilience‐oriented disaster management strategy is designed and validated using the modified IEEE 39‐bus test system. The simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed metrics and strategy, and show that the system resilience is enhanced during the mitigation of fault conditions.

Gui, Jianzhong↗
DOE OSTI2024

SIGHT: Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies for Inferring Building Characteristics

Building characteristics are often absent in building stock datasets, particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change and requiring effective disaster management strategies. Traditional machine learning approaches, while widely used to predict building attributes, typically neglect the spatial context of the data, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, the Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies. This algorithm adapts a meta-learning framework to incorporate geospatial context into the predictive modeling process. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm through two primary use cases: building use type classification and building height prediction. The algorithm consistently achieved or exceeded a 0.94 macro average F1 score across five geographically distinct countries for building use type classification. For building height prediction, it accurately predicted heights with a root mean square error of 3.01 in a comprehensive study using roughly 3.6 million buildings in Japan. These results underscore the benefits of integrating spatial hierarchies into machine learning models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and reliability in geospatial modeling. This work introduces a new algorithm to address the pervasive data sparsity issue in existing building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000196950577)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decoding Ethiopian Abodes: Towards Classifying Buildings by Occupancy Type Using Footprint Morphology

Building occupancy classification plays a crucial role in urban planning, disaster management, and population modeling. Traditional methods often require extensive field surveys or detailed datasets, which can be time-consuming, expensive, and may yield incomplete or erroneous data. In this paper, we present a novel approach for classifying buildings as residential or non-residential using only building footprint data. By extracting geometric shape derivatives that characterize building morphology, we developed a high-accuracy classification model employing a combination of unsupervised and supervised learning methods. We utilized open-source data from Open Street Map, aggregating it to create binary labels for buildings based on their respective human use type. Our approach demonstrates the potential for scalability without the need for additional data sources other than building footprints and labels, offering a more efficient solution for building occupancy classification.

Adams, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning (ML) experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how ML can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by ML, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the ML community to join the global effort against climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing Transportation Efficiency and Electric Vehicles in Tonga: A Review of Relevant Trends and Best Practices

Tonga is facing a transportation sector characterized by private passenger vehicles, poorly maintained roads and walkways, and an inadequate public transit system. By understanding detailed global and regional trends for transport energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EVs) within this context, the Government of Tonga can proactively plan its future transportation systems. In addition to global and regional trends, this report also covers a variety of international case studies and examines Tonga's own transportation policies and actions through this lens. Jurisdictions leading in EV adoption have implemented policies such as reducing taxes on EVs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, providing subsidies and rebates for EV charger installation, instituting an age limit on imported ICE vehicles, and developing EV maintenance courses to expand the skill set of current automotive technicians. Although there are key challenges and barriers to widespread EV adoption in Tonga, multiple studies have researched potential political, technical, financial, and educational interventions that can be adapted and applied in Tonga. Therefore, the purpose of this report is to synthesize the relevant trends and best practices in order to provide Tonga's Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communication (MEIDECC) with a wide range of information on electric vehicles (EVs) and transportation efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Siting of EV Fleet Charging Station Considering EV Mobility and Microgrid Formation for Enhanced Grid Resilience

Coordinating infrastructure planning for transportation and the power grid is essential for enhanced reliability and resilience during operation and disaster management. This paper presents a two-stage stochastic model to optimize the location of electric vehicle fleet charging stations (FEVCSs) to enhance the resilience of a distribution network. The first stage of this model deals with the decision to place an FEVCS at the most favorable and optimized location, whereas the second stage aims to minimize the weighted sum of the value of lost load in multiple potential scenarios with different faults. Indeed, the second stage is a joint grid restoration scheme with network reconfiguration and microgrid formation using available distributed generators and fleet electric vehicles. The proposed model is tested on a modified IEEE-33 node distribution network and a four-node transportation network. Case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Building Footprint Extraction Using NAIP and 3DEP Lidar Derived Features with Deep Learning

Accurate building footprint extraction is critical for applications ranging from population estimation to disaster management. Although optical imagery provides detailed spectral information, it often struggles with shadows, occlusions, and background clutter in dense urban environments. Lidar data, by contrast, offer precise elevation and structural attributes but face challenges such as variable point density and noise. This study integrates multispectral imagery from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) with lidar-derived feature height and intensity from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) to improve footprint extraction using a U-Net–based deep learning model. A six-band input stack (RGB, near-infrared, height, intensity) was developed, normalized, and tiled for training and evaluation against Microsoft Global Building Footprints (GBF). Results from the Houston, TX test site show that the six-band model achieved a precision of 0.86, recall of 0.88, F1 score of 0.87, and Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.76, consistently outperforming four-band baselines by reducing false positives while maintaining sensitivity. Predictions on withheld Houston tiles confirmed strong within-region generalization, yielded a precision of 0.78, recall of 0.81, F1 score of 0.79, and IoU of 0.66. Qualitative analysis further revealed limitations stemming from both training label quality and vegetation–building confusion. These findings demonstrate the complementary value of integrating spectral and structural information for robust building footprint extraction and how domain adaptation strategies can be used to enhance cross-regional transferability.

Liu, Jung Kuan [United States Geological Survey (U↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗