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DOE OSTI2026

Regional surrogates for predictive control of digital twins

Digital twins of complex systems must involve a model that is fast, generalizable, and usable for real-time control. For example, high-fidelity nonlinear multiphysics simulations can capture laser-material interactions, but are too slow for optimization or model predictive control (MPC). Reduced-order models, used to accelerate such computation, frequently fail to generalize to unseen inputs or control states. We show theoretically that this failure is intrinsic, i.e., that a learned model is non-unique outside the sampled subspace when its low-rank structure arises from limited excitation and clustered eigenvalues, rather than from a user-imposed truncation alone. Motivated by this result, we propose a control-ready regional surrogate-construction framework for both autonomous and nonautonomous dynamics; it employs Koopman lifting to represent nonlinearities, while preserving spatial locality. We illustrate our approach by constructing a control-ready surrogate for the digital twin of a thermal component of additive-manufacturing process. Our surrogate, localized in space through a von Neumann stencil, is learned from noisy high-fidelity simulations that emulate thermal-camera images collected during the manufacturing. It is linear in thermo-physically augmented states so that MPC reduces to a convex quadratic program. The surrogate requires no online correction, generalizes to unseen scan paths and power profiles of the laser, and is more than three orders of magnitude faster than a finite-difference solver. Furthermore, when the MPC sequence computed on the digital twin is applied to this solver, closed-loop temperature regulation is recovered, showing that the surrogate preserves control-relevant input-output behavior.

Data-driven model↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated Signal Timing Plan Reconstruction Using High-Resolution Event-Based Controller Data for Digital Twins

Transportation digital twins are essential tools for evaluating emerging technologies such as connected and automated vehicles, adaptive traffic signal control, and mobility optimization strategies. Realistic digital twins require accurate emulation of real-world signal controllers and detailed signal timing plans. However, signal timing plans are often unavailable or difficult to access, forcing researchers and modelers to rely on assumed fixed timings or halt their analysis. To overcome this challenge, we present a method that directly estimates signal timing plan parameters using high-resolution, event-based data from traffic signal controllers. The proposed method extracts key parameters, including cycle length, offset, phase sequence, coordinated phases, phase-specific minimum and maximum green durations, vehicle extensions, and splits under coordination. A rule-based deterministic signal timing reconstruction algorithm based on traffic signal operation rules, such as those outlined in the Signal Timing Manual, is developed and validated. We evaluate this method, which uses high-resolution controller event logs and verified signal timing plans, on 94 signalized intersections in Nashville, Tennessee, demonstrating their ability to generate accurate, simulation-ready signal timing plans for tools such as SUMO and Vissim.

Saroj, Abhilasha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191178063)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital twin framework for PIP-II linac: AI-driven multi-scale modeling from ion source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab is designed to deliver multi-megawatt proton beams for neutrino physics and other high-intensity applications. To expedite commissioning and enhance operational reliability, we have developed an EPICS-based data flow framework that seamlessly integrates digital twins (DT) with physical twins (PT). These digital twins comprise high-fidelity beam dynamics models or data-driven surrogate models connected to their physical counterparts through real-time diagnostics and advanced machine-learning algorithms.Central to this framework is Linac_Gen, an accelerated simulation tool that incorporates convolutional neural networks, random forests, and genetic algorithms to provide up to a tenfold speedup in optimizing the accelerator geometry model. An EPICS translator layer ensures interoperability by efficiently mapping lattice parameters across diverse simulation platforms.Our EPICS-based framework supports multiple operational modes—monitoring, passive learning, closed-loop control, and online learning—covering the entire machine lifecycle. By leveraging HPC resources and multi-objective optimization techniques, the digital twin enables adaptive trajectory correction, real-time fault detection, and predictive modeling of beam stability. This comprehensive approach paves the way for robust, high-intensity operation and data-driven accelerator R&D at Fermilab.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Throughput Estimation of Data Transport Networks From Digital Twin Measurements

Digital twins of networked infrastructures, known as Virtual Infrastructure Twins (VITs), are increasingly used for software development, pre-deployment testing, and design space exploration. While VITs avoid the costs and potential disruptions associated with experiments on operational networks, their throughput measurements are typically not sufficiently accurate for performance profiling of wide-area networks that they emulate. Here, machine learning (ML) methods are developed to transform these inaccurate VIT network throughput measurements to closely match in peak and overall profile of those from a physical testbed or production network. First, a micro kernel network reflecting a physical network is utilized to collect one-time measurements on a host to support this ML transformation. Then, a generic multi-modal ML method is developed to learn a map that transforms measurements from subsequent VITs on the same host to match past, current and follow-on testbed and cloud networks. ML generalization equations are derived to establish its correctness and probabilistically guarantee its generalization accuracy. Experimental results are presented for a variety of VIT hosts with target testbed and cloud networks; they include a case study of a four-site science ecosystem wherein inaccurate convex VIT measurement profiles are transformed into accurate concave profiles of target networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beartooth - Digital Twin Framework Enabling AI

Digital twin was designed as a core part of this testbed. This presentation will discuss the digital twin framework that will enable AI for nuclear aqueous seperations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Latency Analysis of the Nexus Digital Twin Framework

Real-time digital catalogs are increasingly relied upon to track metadata and connect disparate data sources for cloud-based data integration efforts. One such tool, Deeplynx Nexus is supporting real-time digital twin efforts through event-driven data integration and time-series queries. Nexus’s usefulness for these applications depends critically on how quickly individual records can be uploaded and downloaded, since delays directly affect the responsiveness of any system built on top of it. However, the actual latency a user should expect from Nexus has not been systematically measured before, particularly for the small, frequent transactions typical of live sensor feeds. Here we show that single-record round-trip latency is 61.1 ms on a local Nexus instance and 391.7 ms on the hosted production infrastructure, a roughly 6.4x difference driven primarily by fixed per-request overhead rather than data volume. This overhead dominates at small scale: comparing single-record and ten-record trials suggests approximately 56 ms of each single-record request is fixed connection and authentication cost rather than data-transfer time, meaning batching even a handful of records is substantially more efficient than transmitting them individually. At large batch sizes, this pattern reverses for uploads, which converge to near parity between local and hosted environments by 25,000-50,000 records, while download latency remains persistently 5.7-6.4x slower on hosted infrastructure even at scale. These results suggest that Nexus deployments intended for real-time digital twin applications should prioritize record batching over single-record transactions, and that download-path optimization on hosted infrastructure offers the largest remaining opportunity to reduce latency at scale. We anticipate these baseline measurements will serve as a reference point for future digital twin projects evaluating whether Nexus’s latency profile meets their real-time requirements, and as a benchmark for tracking the effect of future infrastructure or API changes.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Developing a digital twin framework for remotely monitoring nuclear reactor facilities

A digital twin must seek to represent all applicable functional components of the system of interest. Different expertise is required for understanding the physical system being modeled than the skills needed for transforming those models into a functional digital twin through physics modeling, machine learning analysis, and visualization. The diversity of knowledge requires a multi-disciplinary team to ensure all system details are captured. Team members also need a method to verify that the data they generate within their domain can be effectively communicated to professionals in other fields. To address this challenge, this work provides an approach for developing a digital twin framework to remotely monitoring nuclear facilities. Through this, general knowledge of the framework is presented along with two examples to solidify the process. The AGN-201 digital twin and microreactor digital twins provide varying levels of complexity in a potential nuclear facility, where common threads are identified and lessons learned are provided. The goal of this research is to aid future researchers by providing a formula for a successful digital twin and in turn reducing the development time of nuclear system digital twins, specifically for remote monitoring.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operational resilience of additively manufactured parts to stealthy cyberphysical attacks using geometric and process digital twins

Cyberphysical attacks on the digital backbone of Additive Manufacturing (AM) can compromise the printed part’s functionality. They can alter features in the digital geometry to introduce geometric defects (e.g., missing fillets) or alter process parameters to create local defects (e.g., voids). Addressing the downtime, waste, and quality deterioration associated with existing solutions requires operational resilience, i.e., rapid elimination or disruption of defect formation (to retain part function) without production stoppage or part disposal (to retain yield). This need is unmet due to the inherently unpredictable nature of attack-induced alterations, lack of access to the original geometric model for identification of altered geometric features, and in-process imposition of unknown process dynamics via attack-driven alteration of real-time-uncontrolled (or exogenous) parameters. This work establishes the above-mentioned operational resilience for the first time by creating two Digital Twins (DT). The Geometric DT (Geo-DT) is based on a unique physical-field-driven soft sensor and topology optimization method. The Process Digital Twin (Pro-DT) combines local defect quantification with a novel Reinforcement Learning formulation and training method. The importance of these methodological advances and the scalability of our approach are examined on a real AM testbed. It is shown that Geo-DT can correct geometric defects without access to the original digital geometry or explicit knowledge of attack-altered geometric features. Further, Pro-DT can accelerate real-time disruption of local defects despite attack-driven imposition of unknown process dynamics. We discuss how our framework goes beyond the contemporary focus on pre-attack security and in-attack detection towards resilience for AM and beyond.

Additive Manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

DOE OSTI2025

High Fidelity Digital Twins for BWRX-300 Critical Systems

This project developed and demonstrated digital-twin technology for advanced nuclear systems under the ARPA-E GEMINA program, with a focus on the BWRX-300 small modular reactor. The primary objective was to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs through predictive health monitoring and model-based fault detection. The project combined MIT’s high-fidelity physics models and machine-learning and digital-twin algorithms, and GE Hitachi’s digital-twin algorithms and operational expertise to build physics-based digital twins capable of real-time system monitoring and maintenance scheduling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

First-of-a-Kind Risk-Informed Digital Twin for Operational Decision Making

A digital twin (DT) is a digital model or a collection of models of a physical entity. DTs in the nuclear arena can be used from plant design through decommissioning. Decisions are typically a priori or made offline. Risk-informed decision making is identifying what can go wrong, its frequency, and the consequences of its failure. Ideally risk-informed decision making reflects the current state of the plant and provides a decision in real time. Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) evaluate the failures of safety systems, the risk of core damage, and the offsite dose as the consequence. However, this DT evaluates the decisions on the control side rather than the protection side. It uses the same risk methods to probabilistically inform the decision-making process but in a different way. Rather than evaluating the risk of core damage, this DT evaluates the likelihood of avoiding a trip set point while maintaining plant safety. Performance-based assessments are identified via its probabilistic evaluation of operational alternatives based on system status. Because the purpose of the control system is to maintain system variables within prescribed operating ranges, upsets or challenges that can exceed a trip set point resulting in a plant transient and a challenge to plant mitigating systems based on actual plant conditions, are evaluated to safely maintain the plant within the operating ranges. The probabilistic portion of the model is autonomously and automatically adjusted, and the metric of interest (i.e. likelihood of avoiding a trip set point) is recalculated. The digital representation of the physical system (i.e. the DT) performs a deterministic performance–based assessment of the probabilistically identified alternatives identified to validate the probabilistic assessment. A decision-making algorithm selects the appropriate option based on the probabilistic and deterministic assessments and transmits a control signal to a component(s) to initiate a corrective action or informs an operator of its decision.

digital twin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Establishing Models for Digital Twin of Hydropower Systems Using Probability Density Function Shaping

This paper introduces a digital twin modeling method for hydropower systems with Kaplan turbines using probability density function (PDF) shaping. We first use multilayer perceptron (MLP) model to build the discretized openloop Kaplan unit, where the MLP is trained by historical data. Then we use a proportional integral double derivative (PIDD) controller and a lead-lag exciter to test the obtained digital twin model in a closed-loop fashion. Simulation results show that the proposed digital twin modeling method can accurately capture the dynamics of the Kaplan hydropower unit. Finally, we show that the obtained digital twin can help to optimize the PIDD parameters. Compared with the original PIDD controller, the optimized one can achieve an over 90% improvement on the mean square tracking error.

Yin, Zhun [New York University]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Immersive Digital Twin Laboratory for Engineering Education (CRADA Final Report)

This project aimed to create an immersive digital twin laboratory that incorporates advanced tracking and visualization capabilities. In collaboration with Fort Lewis College, NREL designed a state-of-the-art physical visualization laboratory, developed a software platform to enable interaction with tracked physical objects in the laboratory, and provided proof-of-concept curricula that included manipulating these tracked objects. The project was initiated to address the growing need for innovative educational tools in engineering education. As renewable energy systems, particularly solar installations, become more complex, there is a pressing need to bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application. Traditional methods of teaching solar engineering concepts often fall short of providing students with a comprehensive, hands-on understanding. This immersive digital twin laboratory was conceived to fill that gap by creating a safe, non-energized setting where students can interact with augmented solar installation objects, gaining valuable insights into system performance, design, and maintenance. The project utilized extended reality (XR) technologies, including head-mounted displays (HMDs) and a whole-room optical motion tracking system, to connect physical objects with their digital twins in real time. The laboratory was equipped with MagicLeap 2 HMDs, supported by a Vicon Vero 2.2 Optical Tracking System, which provided precise 6-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) tracking. We developed a software platform to manage the interaction between the tracked physical objects and their virtual counterparts, enabling real-time data synchronization, object recognition, and virtual overlays. We designed the system to be flexible and extendable, allowing for future integration of additional objects and curriculum. This research advances the field of engineering education by demonstrating the potential of immersive digital twin environments. The laboratory provides a dynamic learning space where students can experiment, collaborate, and learn without the risks associated with live experimentation. The ability to simulate and manipulate solar installation objects under various conditions has broad implications for workforce development, particularly in renewable energy. The project also highlights the economic feasibility of using XR technologies in educational settings, offering a cost-effective solution for institutions looking to enhance their curriculum. By fostering a deeper understanding of solar energy systems, this work contributes to the broader goal of supporting the global energy transition and preparing the next generation of engineers and technicians.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Myna: Connecting powder bed fusion build data to simulation tools for digital twin applications

Additive manufacturing (AM), as a digital process, can generate a detailed digital thread linking a part’s design and manufacturing to its operational performance. As AM systems advance, an increasing amount of process data is stored in manufacturing databases. In principle, this data can be utilized by simulation-based digital twin approaches, such as real-time process control and asynchronous post-processing guidance. However, few tools currently exist for systematically integrating digital thread data with computational tools. Here, in this study, we propose a software package, called Myna, for connecting data from powder bed fusion processes to simulation tools. The utility of such a platform is demonstrated using build data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Manufacturing Demonstration Facility “Peregrine v2023-10” public dataset to automatically configure and run 54 semi-analytical 3DThesis melt pool simulations, 78 numerical Additive FOAM melt pool simulations, and 3 ExaCA microstructure simulations. The simulated, spatially registered microstructures are then compared directly with electron backscatter diffraction characterization of the corresponding as-built part locations. The resulting simulated microstructure showed variation as a function of process parameters, particularly stripe width; however, the experimental data had little variation between the microstructure texture and grain size resulting from different processing conditions. Analysis of the discrepancies suggest that it is possible a two-phase ferritic-austenitic solidification model is needed to accurately predict grain size and texture for certain stainless steel 316L feedstock compositions under powder bed fusion conditions, providing direction for future research. As illustrated here, due to the number and complexity of the simulations involved in AM process-structure–property predictions, automated methods to connect process data and simulations will remain necessary tools for testing hypotheses and implementing digital twin applications.

Knapp, Gerald L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2026

Digital Twin Technology for Safety, Security, and Training in Spent Nuclear Fuel Handling

The increasing complexity of spent nuclear fuel handling requires significant resources to ensure safety, security, and personnel training. As nuclear facilities have continued to advance in scale and technology, the integration of digital tools has become indispensable. Among these tools, digital twins, which are virtual models of physical systems, are emerging as invaluable tools for enhancing safety protocols, security measures, and training in the nuclear sector. These models were conceptualized in the Industry 4.0 revolution. Digital twins can process data from physical systems in real time (by using sensors), include multiple code packages to enable simulations of different physics applications, and even implement artificial intelligence or machine learning techniques for advanced data processing. Despite the advantages that digital twins provide, challenges still exist regarding their widespread implementation. For instance, data used by a digital twin must be accurate to ensure that the digital twin is accurately tuned. Furthermore, if insecure digital twins are targeted by hackers, then they can pose serious risks to the security and safety of nuclear facilities.

Digital twins↗

DOE OSTI2025

Twinac: initiation of a community-driven accelerator digital twin framework

We present the initiation of a community-driven framework for the integration of accelerator digital twins into control systems: Twinac. Few facilities have fully integrated accelerator digital twins like at Cornell’s CHESS. Many facilities have active research to employ surrogate models to aid in operational decisions like at Argonne’s ALS, MSU’s FRIB, SLAC’s LCLS-II, and Fermilab’s FAST/IOTA, PIP-II, and main complex. To lower the barrier to entry for all accelerator facilities to build and benefit from a digital twin of their own accelerators, we propose the following software framework. Twinac will provide the capability to compose one’s own digital twin using reusable components engineered at other facilities. With this model in place, Twinac will also support tools for (1) predictive maintenance systems; (2) discovery of correlated but uncontrolled environmental factors, like seasonal temperature variations causing performance changes on power supplies, magnets, etc.; and (3) prototyping and updating sophisticated optimization and controls algorithms. The Twinac framework will enable sharing and simplified deployment of modeled components and control algorithms at all facilities. With an inter-facility team to build and support the Twinac framework, it will be easy to publish and try out the latest advancements at one’s own facility.

Miceli, Tia [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

White Paper: Scalable Digital Twin Capabilities for Aging and Surveillance of Engineered Systems

This white paper presents a multi-year initiative to develop practical, secure, and scalable digital twin capabilities for engineered systems in aging and surveillance contexts—an approach pioneered at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) that maps directly onto the needs and ambitions of the Navy for ship- and fleet-level digital twins. LLNL’s work in building part- and process-level digital twins for advanced manufacturing, with a vision to scale up to entire factory floors and, ultimately, enterprise-wide digital twins, offers an adaptable pathway for the Navy as it seeks to modernize lifecycle management, readiness, and predictive maintenance across ships and fleets. For our application, we integrate physics-based modeling with automated data ingestion, processing, and AI-driven calibration, creating hybrid models that are both interpretable and data responsive. We modernized legacy workflows, established centralized data infrastructure, automated experimental pipelines, and demonstrated end-to-end coupling of accelerated aging data with finite element simulations via optimization and surrogate modeling. The result is a generalizable framework that supports part-level digital twins today and lays the groundwork for future system-level twins suitable for Navy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer Based Hydrogen Production Facility

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗