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A Global Food Demand Model for the Assessment of Complex Human-Earth Systems
Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.
Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model
This report is one of a series stemming from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study. This study is a multi-national-laboratory effort to assess the potential value of demand response (DR) and energy storage to electricity systems with different penetration levels of variable renewable resources and to improve our understanding of associatedmarkets and institutions. This report implements DR resources in the commercial production cost model PLEXOS.
A Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Demand Model
The Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) demand modeling is a tool that will be useful for decision-makers to analyze SATS demands in both airport and airspace. We constructed a series of models following the general top-down, modular principles in systems engineering. There are three principal models, SATS Airport Demand Model (SATS-ADM), SATS Flight Demand Model (SATS-FDM), and LMINET-SATS. SATS-ADM models SATS operations, by aircraft type, from the forecasts in fleet, configuration and performance, utilization, and traffic mixture. Given the SATS airport operations such as the ones generated by SATS-ADM, SATS-FDM constructs the SATS origin and destination (O&D) traffic flow based on the solution of the gravity model, from which it then generates SATS flights using the Monte Carlo simulation based on the departure time-of-day profile. LMINET-SATS, an extension of LMINET, models SATS demands at airspace and airport by all aircraft operations in US The models use parameters to provide the user with flexibility and ease of use to generate SATS demand for different scenarios. Several case studies are included to illustrate the use of the models, which are useful to identify the need for a new air traffic management system to cope with SATS.
Bid-DS-data-model (Demand Side Bidding Data Model) [SWR-22-80]
A model structure to support representation of power system dispatching for optimal power flow that includes bid-in demands for load. Used to support the ARPA-E GO-3 competition.
Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19
Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.
A Machine-Learning Decision-Support Tool for Travel-Demand Modeling
Utility maximization(UM) models are the lifeblood of virtually all travel demand models (TDM) in practice. Be it the traditional travel demand models or more advanced activity-based models, utility maximization models are used extensively to model and predict myriad travel choices such as location choice, mode choice, route choice etc. More recently machine learning (ML) models are being applied in a variety of contexts to predict choice patterns (product suggestions on Amazon, restaurant suggestions on Yelp etc.,). In the TDM arena, there has been interest in incorporating ML models where they can enhance prediction accuracy. Though there have been sporadic efforts at comparing specific utility maximization models to machine learning models, there is a need for a standard comparison tool which can evaluate ML models against UM models for a given choice context. Addressing this need, we present a tool for applying an array of models including logit, nested logit, neural network, Naive Bayes and decision tree classifiers. The tool is specifically tailored to aid in the deciding the best model for a given choice context and can be used to choose an appropriate model family or to construct a model ensemble to improve upon current modeling standards in travel demand modeling. We test our proposed system on household vehicle count and work schedule targets from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. Results demonstrate that for some variables, logit are not the most effective models, and the proposed system can aid in selecting a better model.
Fundamental Travel Demand Model Example
Instances of transportation models are abundant and detailed "how to" instruction is available in the form of transportation software help documentation. The purpose of this paper is to look at the fundamental inputs required to build a transportation model by developing an example passenger travel demand model. The example model reduces the scale to a manageable size for the purpose of illustrating the data collection and analysis required before the first step of the model begins. This aspect of the model development would not reasonably be discussed in software help documentation (it is assumed the model developer comes prepared). Recommendations are derived from the example passenger travel demand model to suggest future work regarding the data collection and analysis required for a freight travel demand model.
Improving Characterization of Miscellaneous Energy Loads in Energy Demand Models
Miscellaneous energy loads (MELs) comprise a significant and growing portion of total building energy consumption. However relatively little is known about the products that make up MELs end uses, and MELs are modeled with less granularity than major end uses in energy demand models such as the U.S. Department of Energy’s Scout energy efficiency impact analysis tool or the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This paper identifies differences in the way MELs versus major building end uses are modeled, and then reviews potential sources of MELs baseline technology data that could be used to improve their characterization in energy demand models. Case studies of dry distribution transformers, hot water circulation pumps, and Japanese-style automatic bidets are presented to compare and contrast the level of baseline data available for different end uses. We show that there is potential to use data from energy conservation standards and other sources to significantly improve representation of some MELs in energy demand models, while other emerging MELs require further data collection before they can be modeled precisely.
Improving Characterization of Miscellaneous Energy Loads in Energy Demand Models
Miscellaneous energy loads (MELs) comprise a significant and growing portion of total building energy consumption. However relatively little is known about the products that make up MELs end uses, and MELs are modeled with less granularity than major end uses in energy demand models such as the U.S. Department of Energy's Scout energy efficiency impact analysis tool or the U.S. Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This paper identifies differences in the way MELs versus major building end uses are modeled, and then reviews potential sources of MELs baseline technology data that could be used to improve their characterization in energy demand models. Case studies of dry distribution transformers, hot water circulation pumps, and Japanese-style automatic bidets are presented to compare and contrast the level of baseline data available for different end uses. We show that there is potential to use data from energy conservation standards and other sources to significantly improve representation of some MELs in energy demand models, while other emerging MELs require further data collection before they can be modeled precisely.
Global Demand Model to Support the Intercenter Systems Analysis Team (ISAT) Passenger Demand Forecasts
In 2017, the PAMO/ISAT has sponsored a global aircraft emissions study with the Virginia Tech Air Transportation Systems Laboratory through a contract with the National Institute of Aerospace. As part of this work, Virginia Tech developed the Global Demand Model (GDM), which forecasts global commercial aviation passenger demand out to 2040.
LANL Tritium Supply and Demand Model
The LANL Tritium Supply and Demand Model provides the capability to investigate the adequacy of future tritium supply subject to stockpile demand for variousscenarios. The tool includes the ability to change stockpile demand factors and adjust tritium production plans, while accounting for Tritium decay. The model has been used numerous times to identify potential tritium shortfalls and advocate for changes to tritium production planning and implementation.
Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2
Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.
The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.
Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation
The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.
Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension. Volume 1: Background and summary
The framework for a model of travel demand which will be useful in predicting the total market for air travel between two cities is discussed. Variables to be used in determining the need for air transportation where none currently exists and the effect of changes in system characteristics on attracting latent demand are identified. Existing models are examined in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. Much of the existing behavioral research in travel demand is incorporated to allow the inclusion of non-economic factors, such as convenience. The model developed is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed.
Developing Passenger Demand Models for International Aviation from/to Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair
This research is concerned with developing passenger demand models for international aviation from/to Egypt. In this context, aviation sector in Egypt is represented by the biggest and main airport namely Cairo airport as well as by the main Egyptian international air carrier namely Egyptair. The developed models utilize two variables to represent aviation demand, namely total number of international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport as well as total number of passengers using Egyptair international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport. Such demand variables were related, using different functional forms, to several explanatory variables including population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. To demonstrate usefulness of developed models, these were used to forecast future demand patterns.
Deep hybrid model with satellite imagery: How to combine demand modeling and computer vision for travel behavior analysis?
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