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BACKFLIP Project: Determination of BACKsheet Material Properties: A Comparison of Market-Benchmark Technologies to Novel Non-Fluoro-Based Co-Extruded Backsheet Materials and Their Correlation and Impact on PV Module Degradation Rates

Quantifying degradation rate of backsheets will help procuring materials for 30+ years. Today most backsheets on the market have a laminated PET core; polyolefin materials may provide better properties for backsheets (barrier to water, mechanical properties through UV and hydrolytic environments, etc.). End-of-life regulations may require fluorine-free backsheet products in future global markets. Parametrized equation predicting the service life of backsheets, and validated by both lab and outdoor extensive testing. Technical and commercial confidence to the entire value chain: from backsheet and module manufacturers to the downstream community (IPP, banks, developers) that materials of higher quality can help reduce finance costs, therefore driving down LCOE. A fast track PV module market adaptation for novel high-quality materials, such as co-extruded polyolefin-core backsheets, by obtaining unbiased durability data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Membrane Thickness Impact on Chemical Degradation Rates

Abstract A comprehensive investigation of PFSA membrane chemical degradation rates as a function of thickness (8-20 µm) is reported. The two-pronged study was conducted on bare membranes and as components of chemically-mitigated and mechanically-reinforced, state-of-the-art (SOA) membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs). The bare membranes were subjected to H2O2 vapor test and MEAs were degraded under OCV conditions, both at 90°C. Both test types employed fluoride release rates (FRR) to monitor chemical degradation rates. Vapor tests revealed that area-specific degradation rates were positively correlated with membrane thickness, but thickness normalized degradation rates were independent of thickness. Open-circuit voltage (OCV) investigations spanning the membrane thickness series of MEAs was probed via a 27-experiment 3(4-1) fractional factorial experimental design. Statistical analysis of the FRR values revealed that chemical degradation rates were dominated by the relative humidity value and that the area-specific degradation rates of MEAs were independent of membrane thickness. The OCV chemical durability insensitivity to membrane thickness is supported by on-load membrane chemical durability studies at the stack level. The results suggest that ,despite smaller ionomer inventory, SOA thin membranes and MEAs are not greatly disadvantaged relative to thicker membranes from a chemical durability perspective, provided oxidative stress levels are controlled throughout application lifetime.

Coms, Frank D. (ORCID:0000000249160350)↗

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact of duration and missing data on the long-term photovoltaic degradation rate estimation

Accurate quantification of photovoltaic (PV) system degradation rate (R D ) is essential for lifetime yield predictions. Although R D is a critical parameter, its estimation lacks a standardized methodology that can be applied on outdoor field data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of time period duration and missing data on R D by analyzing the performance of different techniques applied to synthetic PV system data at different linear R D patterns and known noise conditions. The analysis includes the application of different techniques to a 10-year synthetic dataset of a crystalline Silicon PV system, with emulated degradation levels and imputed missing data. Here, the analysis demonstrated that the accuracy of ordinary least squares (OLS), year-on-year (YOY), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and robust principal component analysis (RPCA) techniques is affected by the evaluation duration with all techniques converging to lower R D deviations over the 10-year evaluation, apart from RPCA at high degradation levels. Moreover, the estimated R D is strongly affected by the amount of missing data. Filtering out the corrupted data yielded more accurate R D results for all techniques. It is proven that the application of a change-point detection stage is necessary and guidelines for accurate R D estimation are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Field Accelerated Stress Testing (FAST): Forecasting Plant-specific Failure Modes and Degradation Rates

Photovoltaic plant owners and insurance companies would like to be prepared for the forthcoming material warranty claims (material defects) and power warranty claims (degradation rate). To address the needs of these stakeholders, this presentation aims to introduce a new conceptual approach to perform accelerated testing right at the field of interest and it is called field accelerated stress testing (FAST). The primary goal of this presentation is to present a conceptual approach to forecast the field specific failure modes and degradation rates in advance by a factor of 2 to 5, right at the plant site using a few spare modules available at the plant location itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC (2022 Status Report)

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to 17 years. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 °F (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models developed previously. Due to differences in containers, 9975 packages with non-3013 containers are only approved for 20 years of storage. The updated degradation models developed in this report have been compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, radial thermal conductivity, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. The axial thermal conductivity degradation rate slightly exceeds calculations estimate of 0.5% per year between 130 and 160 °F. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are extreme. However, these relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or would be postulated only as upset conditions that would not likely persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 °F, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of non-conforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Packages in KAC (2021 Status Report)

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to 16 years. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 and non3013 containers in storage from 15 years to 20 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 20 years in storage using degradation models developed previously. The updated degradation models developed in this report have been compared to the assumptions in these calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, radial thermal conductivity, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. The axial thermal conductivity degradation rate slightly exceeds calculations estimate of 0.5% per year between 130 and 160 °F. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are extreme. However, these relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or would be postulated only as upset conditions that would not likely persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 20 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 20 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Prediction of Climate-Specific Degradation Rate for Photovoltaic Encapsulant Discoloration

Encapsulant discoloration is a well-known field degradation mode of crystalline-silicon photovoltaic modules, particularly in the hot climate zones. The discoloration rate is influenced by several weathering factors, such as UV light, module temperature, and humidity, as well as the permeability of oxygen into the module. Here, a rate dependence model employing the modified Arrhenius equations to predict the degradation rate for encapsulant discoloration in different climates is presented. Two modeling approaches are introduced, which utilize the field and accelerated UV testing degradation data in conjunction with the field meteorological data to determine the acceleration factor for encapsulant browning. A novel method of accelerated UV stress testing at three simultaneous module temperatures in a single environmental chamber test run is implemented to estimate the activation energy for browning. The test was performed on three field-retrieved modules to capture the wear-out failure mechanism. The degradation in short-circuit current Isc rather than maximum power is used as a decisive parameter for the discoloration analysis. Furthermore, the developed model has been used to predict the Isc degradation rate for the Arizona field characterized by a hot and dry climate and is validated against the field-measured value. It has also been applied to other climate types, e.g., the cold and dry climate of New York.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Photovoltaic Cleaning Frequency Optimization Under Different Degradation Rate Patterns

Dust accumulation significantly affects the performance of photovoltaic modules and its impact can be mitigated by various cleaning methods. Optimizing the cleaning frequency is essential to minimize the soiling losses and, at the same time, the costs. However, the effectiveness of cleaning lowers with time because of the reduced energy yield due to degradation. Additionally, economic factors such as the escalation in electricity price and inflation can compound or counterbalance the effect of degradation on the soiling mitigation profits. The present study analyzes the impact of degradation, escalation in electricity price and inflation on the revenues and costs of cleanings and proposes a methodology to maximize the profits of soiling mitigation of any system. Here, the energy performance and soiling losses of a 1 MW system installed in southern Spain were analyzed and integrated with theoretical linear and nonlinear degradation rate patterns. The Levelized Cost of Energy and Net Present Value were used as criteria to identify the optimum cleaning strategies. The results showed that the two metrics convey distinct cleaning recommendations, as they are influenced by different factors. For the given site, despite the degradation effects, the optimum cleaning frequency is found to increase with time of operation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC (2020 Status Report)

Savannah River Site (SRS) stores plutonium materials within model 9975 shipping packages in the K-Area Complex (KAC). The 9975 shipping package consists of a 35 gallon stainless steel drum, Celotex fiberboard insulation, lead shield, and primary and secondary containment vessels. The 9975 shipping package design, performance, and analysis for safe transport of radioactive material are described in the Safety Analysis Report for Packaging (SARP). Celotex fiberboard provides three safety functions: thermal insulation to limit internal temperature during a fire, criticality control, and resistance to package crushing. The fiberboard material must retain its dimensions and density within certain ranges to provide the required impact resistance, criticality control, and fire resistance. The SRS Surveillance Program monitors material performance to establish a basis for service life and ensures the continued integrity of 9975 packages. Fiberboard samples, taken from multiple fiberboard assemblies fabricated from cane and softwood fiberboard, have been conditioning in elevated temperature environments since 2005. The samples are periodically examined to monitor thermal, mechanical, and physical properties, and assess degradation trends. Fiberboard properties of interest that are evaluated to demonstrate acceptable long-term performance include dimensional stability, density, compressive strength, thermal conductivity, and specific heat capacity. Duplicate samples from multiple package sources have been tested to identify the range of variability in fiberboard properties and degradation rates. Baseline and long-term testing of fiberboard material properties have been reported previously; reference 6 summarized experimental results of cane and softwood fiberboard through May 2019 and presented degradation models for the measured properties. This report presents the cumulative data collected through June 2020 and the corresponding updated aging models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

2025 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 20 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models. The 40 year storage evaluations assumed the degradation rates from initial values for density, dimensional, and thermal properties were 0.5% per year (i.e., after 40 years, the density, dimensional, and thermal properties of fiberboard were 80% of its initial values). The updated degradation models developed in this report were compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, axial and radial thermal conductivities, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are purposely high to accelerate aging. These rates relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or are postulated to only occur as upset conditions that are unlikely to persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments (i.e., under 125 °F) used in this study. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

2024 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 19 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using Meteorological Data to Evaluate Worldwide PV Degradation Rates

Here we automate the process to enable the creation of world maps for specific PV durability metrics. The end goal is to create a tool for the creation of world maps predicting the sensitivity of modules to degradation to inform the development and utilization of module testing standards and to provide information to module designers. TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) Data was aggregated from sites around the world to render insight into factors contributing to the degradation of solar modules. The focus of aggregating data was to create a single dataset to work with utilizing Solar Irradiance values combined with Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind Speed and Dew-Point Temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reliability and Power Degradation Rates of PERC Modules Using Differentiated Packaging Strategies and Characterization Tools

The reliability, durability and lifetime performance of passivated emitter, rear cell (PERC) modules used in real-world PV power plants is a critical challenge underlying the rapid adoption and bankability of these PERC cells, whose high efficiency help reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). We propose a degradation-science study of PERC module degradation pathways, benchmarking them relative to known degradation mechanisms and pathways of the incumbent aluminum back surface field (Al-BSF) modules exposed to real-world and accelerated exposure conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

BACKFLIP: A Comparison of Market-Benchmark Backsheet Technologies to Novel Non-Fluoro-Based Coextruded Materials and Their Correlation and Impact on PV Module Degradation Rates: Final Results of the Study at 4000 Hours or 2 Years

As the photovoltaic (PV) industry is rapidly expanding around the world, there has been an increasing interest in extending the lifespan of PV modules. Concern has also emerged regarding the recyclability of modules and their component materials, including fluoropolymer-based backsheets. Laminated polyethylene-terephthalate (PET) core backsheets have traditionally been used in the PV industry, but new, co-extruded polyolefin (PO) backsheets show promise as an improved alternative. Mini-module and coupon samples of seven different backsheets (made of layers including contemporary PET and fluoropolymers, novel PO, and polyamide (PA) materials) were run through hygrometric- or UV photolytic-accelerated aging to identify and better understand each material's degradation modes and the backsheets' field reliability. In addition to the artificial aging, the natural weathering methods used in this study are described. The comprehensive set of chemical, mechanical, and structural characterizations at intermittent read points in this study is presented, including: visual appearance and color; gloss; mechanical tensile testing; I-V performance; electroluminescence (EL) imaging; dielectric breakdown; FTIR-chemical structure; X-ray-polymer structure (WAXS); and DSC-crystalline content. After 4000 h of accelerated aging or 2y of outdoor aging, a strong correlation occurs between initial physical characteristics (mechanical tensile test) and operating performance (EL and I-V characteristics).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2023 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 18 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗