Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “degradation predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Implementation of a Bag Degradation Predictive Tool at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Nuclear material packaging involves many complex variables derived from the stored material's properties, the storage environment, and the synergistic interaction of said material and its environment on the containment boundary. In the Plutonium Facility (PF-4) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) the typical containment boundary found, starting from the stored material itself to the outermost containment layer, consists of the material contained within a stainless steel (typically 304) slip-lid (or other equivalent stainless steel packaging layer) wrapped in an sPVC bag-out bag contained within a facility approved outer container stored within the boundaries of an approved facility (i.e., a building designed and approved to store nuclear material). This packaging configuration, though occasionally deviated from in the past, represents the current procedurally enforced, expected containment structure for all interim nuclear material containment outside of an engineered control barrier (e.g., a glovebox). Over the life of containerization research at LANL, packaging engineers have become increasingly concerned with the degradation of the sPVC bag-out bag, which can cause corrosion to the outermost packaging layer as well as possible exposure to alpha contamination if the bag-out bag layer is degraded to the point of containment failure. A bag-out bag degradation predictive tool (BDT) is therefore needed to assess the current and future nuclear material inventory for possible bag degradation in order to continue to ensure safe operations for the facility and its workers to deliver on the vital national security mission of 30 PPY.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A genome-scale metabolic model for the denitrifying bacterium Thauera sp. MZ1T accurately predicts degradation of pollutants and production of polymers

The denitrifying bacterium Thauera sp . MZ1T, a common member of microbial communities in wastewater treatment facilities, can produce different compounds from a range of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) sources under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. In these different conditions, Thauera modifies its metabolism to produce different compounds that influence the microbial community. In particular, Thauera sp . MZ1T produces different exopolysaccharides with floc-forming properties, impacting the physical disposition of wastewater consortia and the efficiency of nutrient assimilation by the microbial community. Under N-limiting conditions, Thauera sp . MZ1T decreases its growth rate and accelerates the accumulation of polyhydroxyalkanoate-related (PHA) compounds including polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), which plays a fundamental role as C and energy storage in this β-proteobacterium. However, the metabolic mechanisms employed by Thauera sp . MZ1T to assimilate and catabolize many of the different C and N sources under aerobic and anaerobic conditions remain unknown. Systems biology approaches such as genome-scale metabolic modeling have been successfully used to unveil complex metabolic mechanisms for various microorganisms. Here, we developed a comprehensive metabolic model (M-model) for Thauera sp . MZ1T ( i Thauera861), consisting of 1,744 metabolites, 2,384 reactions, and 861 genes. We validated the model experimentally using over 70 different C and N sources under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions. i Thauera861 achieved a prediction accuracy of 95% for growth on various C and N sources and close to 85% for assimilation of aromatic compounds under denitrifying conditions. The M-model was subsequently deployed to determine the effects of substrates, oxygen presence, and the C:N ratio on the production of PHB and exopolysaccharides (EPS), showing the highest polymer yields are achieved with nucleotides and amino acids under aerobic conditions. This comprehensive M-model will help reveal the metabolic processes by which this ubiquitous species influences communities in wastewater treatment systems and natural environments.

Tec-Campos, Diego (ORCID:0000000188194150)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the Stress Factors for Photovoltaic (PV) Backsheet Degradation

Back sheet failure has resulted in power loss and large-scale recall of photovoltaic modules, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue. The light exposure on the backside of a photovoltaic module comes primarily from reflected light which alters the distribution of natural sunlight. Because of this, modelling the backside exposure and duplicating the exposure is much more difficult than modeling the frontside exposure. This project aims to study how various back sheets and junction box materials degrade under different conditions and to develop Python code to help model and predict degradation. The stress factors for back-sheet degradation must be quantified to extrapolate accelerated stress tests to the field. Test samples were placed in the A3, A4, and A5 conditions, as defined in IEC 62788-7-2, to assess the temperature and humidity dependence of ultraviolet (UV) induced degradation. We are utilizing a custom chamber with exposure from 0.5 UV-suns to 5 UV-suns to understand the dependence of degradation on light intensity. A group of samples put in the A3 condition had glass filters with 50% UV cut-offs of 320 nm, 335 nm, and 360 nm to assess the wavelength dependence of UV degradation. All this data is necessary to assess the impact of non-standard UV light exposure. The material evaluation tests include gloss measurements, attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), UV-visible reflectance/transmittance utilizing a Cary Ci7000 spectrophotometer, and a nano-indenter for surface hardness and modulus measurements. Alongside the experimental work, there is a computational effort using raytracing and Python open-source tools in PVDeg , PVLib, and Bifacial_Radiance. This code will create specific exposure scenarios and enable the evaluation of chamber degradation relative to field degradation. Equation 1 is a strawman equation used to model degradation on the backside of a PV module. We will create simplified code, based on the results of ray-tracing calculations, which uses a view factor approach to provide fast calculations for the most common exposure scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Battery State of Health Estimator: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

NREL has developed a software tool to enable Renewance to estimate the degradation of batteries from basic information such as the type of battery and the application of that battery during its first life, so that used batteries may be evaluated for potential repurposing at low cost. This software tool utilizes NREL's BLAST-Lite battery degradation modeling code, which was updated with additional models for commercially produced lithium-ion batteries as a part of this CRADA. The software tool enables users to input details such as battery type and application so that lifetime estimates can be made without any programming or expert battery knowledge. The application input loads in saved values for parameters such as cycles per year, depth-of-discharge, and other battery operating parameters from a file defined by Renewance. These parameters may be modified to refine simulations for specific batteries. The software tool also incorporates a degradation model optimization tool, whereby existing battery degradation models may be tuned according to measured battery health. This ensures that new models still predict degradation behaviors expected from a certain battery chemistry, but with the overall degradation rate tuned to a specific battery make and model. The new model can then be saved for estimating the degradation of other similar batteries. An additional task was planned to utilize machine-learning to enable battery health diagnosis from rapid EIS measurements to accelerate the screening of used batteries. This task was not completed due to lack of available data for training a machine-learning model. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: Further development of open-source software tool BLAST-Lite for predicting the lifetime of commercially produced Lithium-ion batteries (NREL SWR-22-69).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermo-mechanical deterioration and molecular degradation of 3D-printed methacrylate-based polymer in various chemical environments

The advancement of additive manufacturing (AM) has accelerated the development of stereolithographic (SLA) photo-curable resins, particularly methacrylate-based polymers, due to the ability to their high-resolution, robust mechanical properties, and suitability. However, their long-term performance in chemical environments remains poorly understood. This study investigates the extent and mechanisms of degradation on an SLA-printed methacrylate-based polymer subjected to various chemicals, including polar and non-polar solvents, as well as strongly acidic aqueous solutions over a 12-week accelerated aging period. A comprehensive analytical approach incorporating swelling kinetics, surface morphology, tensile and dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and mass spectrometry (MS) was employed to characterize chemical absorption, structural integrity, and leached products. Results reveal that degradation severity is governed by both the polarity and reactivity of the chemical environment. Notably, exposure to 6 mol L -1 HNO₃ induced the most severe deterioration, with over threefold higher swelling compared to other media, and significant reductions in tensile strength, tensile modulus, and glass transition temperature (T g ). In contrast, specimens aged in non-polar solvents (xylene and dodecane) exhibited negligible chemical interaction and retained mechanical performance. FTIR and MS analyses identified acid-catalyzed hydrolysis of ester groups as prominent degradation pathways in acidic media, while diffusion-controlled plasticization prevailed in polar solvents. Furthermore, this study provides valuable insights into the chemical stability of SLA-printed polymers and develops predictive degradation profiles that are crucial for designing durable polymer systems for advanced industrial use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

MarK, a Novosphingobium aromaticivorans kinase required for catabolism of multiple aromatic monomers

The aromatic compounds used in a variety of industrial products are currently obtained from nonrenewable petroleum sources. Alternatively, the plant polymer lignin is an abundant renewable source of aromatics, and its depolymerization generates a variety of products that can include acetovanillone, a vanillin derivative containing an acetyl side chain. The Alphaproteobacterium Novosphingobium aromaticivorans DSM12444 can metabolize several chemically modified aromatics in deconstructed lignin, but not acetovanillone. In this work, adaptive laboratory evolution identified a single amino acid change in the previously uncharacterized gene product Saro_1862 that is necessary and sufficient for N. aromaticivorans growth with acetovanillone as a sole growth substrate, as well as other aromatic monomers not metabolized by wild-type cells. We show that a glutamate (E) to lysine (K) substitution at amino acid residue 16 of Saro_1862 results in a ~1600-fold increase in the rate of ATP-dependent acetovanillone phosphorylation. We also find that recombinant Saro_1862 E16K phosphorylates several other aromatic compounds in vitro , defining the first reported catalytic activity for the widespread UPF0261 protein domain contained in Saro_1862. Thus, we propose naming Saro_1862 MarK, for multiple aromatic kinase. A 1.57 Å crystal structure of MarK E16K predicts that the E16K substitution lies in a potential ATP binding site, suggesting how this amino acid change increased catalytic activity. A search for homologs of MarK and other proteins required for acetovanillone degradation predicts that this pathway for aromatic metabolism exists throughout the bacterial phylogeny.

Novosphingobium↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Based Analysis of Cell Imbalances and Aging in Lithium-Ion Battery Modules and Packs

Lithium-ion battery (LIB) packs are a key solution for grid-scale energy storage, enabling grid resilience and supporting critical infrastructure. LIB modules and packs experience current imbalances and uneven cell aging due to various design and operational factors, and require a battery management system (BMS) to continuously monitor and control. In this context, a physics-based modeling framework for LIB modules and packs (liionpack) was enhanced to identify design and control strategies that minimize current imbalance and improve module/pack operation. Simulations of an 8-cell parallel-connected module demonstrate that reducing current imbalance leads to more uniform cell aging and improved module/pack-level degradation predictions. The analysis shows that current imbalance are affected by the electrical resistances. Terminal location significantly affects imbalance, with opposite-end terminal connections at intermediate branches minimizing the imbalance, and the pack circuit construction influences the accuracy of physics-based analysis at the pack scale. This framework enables design optimization of modules and packs through a fast and easy evaluation of pack performance and aging, and supports the development of aging-informed balancing strategies compatible with BMS implementation. Thereby, offering practical pathways to improve reliability and cycle life predictions in large-scale battery energy storage systems.

Ayalasomayajula, Surya Mitra [Oak Ridge National L↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functional diversification within the heme-binding split-barrel family

Due to neofunctionalization, a single fold can be identified in multiple proteins that have distinct molecular functions. Depending on the time that has passed since gene duplication and the number of mutations, the sequence similarity between functionally divergent proteins can be relatively high, eroding the value of sequence similarity as the sole tool for accurately annotating the function of uncharacterized homologs. Here, we combine bioinformatic approaches with targeted experimentation to reveal a large multifunctional family of putative enzymatic and nonenzymatic proteins involved in heme metabolism. This family (homolog of HugZ (HOZ)) is embedded in the “FMN-binding split barrel” superfamily and contains separate groups of proteins from prokaryotes, plants, and algae, which bind heme and either catalyze its degradation or function as nonenzymatic heme sensors. In prokaryotes these proteins are often involved in iron assimilation, whereas several plant and algal homologs are predicted to degrade heme in the plastid or regulate heme biosynthesis. In the plant Arabidopsis thaliana, which contains two HOZ subfamilies that can degrade heme in vitro (HOZ1 and HOZ2), disruption of AtHOZ1 (AT3G03890) or AtHOZ2A (AT1G51560) causes developmental delays, pointing to important biological roles in the plastid. In the tree Populus trichocarpa, a recent duplication event of a HOZ1 ancestor has resulted in localization of a paralog to the cytosol. Structural characterization of this cytosolic paralog and comparison to published homologous structures suggests conservation of heme-binding sites. This study unifies our understanding of the sequence-structure-function relationships within this multilineage family of heme-binding proteins and presents new molecular players in plant and bacterial heme metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precision Agriculture using Networks of Degradable Analytical Sensors (PANDAS) (Final Technical Report)

Precision agriculture, where sensing of soil, environment and crop conditions are used to precisely synchronize inputs (such as water and fertilizer) to crop needs enhances input use efficiency. This can improve yields and farm profitability while mitigating environmental losses, improving soil carbon content and substantially decreasing energy use for food, feed and fuel crops. Unfortunately, farmers are not yet able to harness the full potential of these management technologies as there is a lack of available management information, and there is therefore a need for sensors that are able to economically measure spatio-temporal variability in soil and crop properties of extremely heterogeneous farm fields precisely at high resolution and at low cost. Real-time, in-situ monitoring of agricultural soil conditions is today carried out using devices that limit the total number of nodes that can be used economically to typically one per acre or less. Higher spatio-temporal resolution sensing would enable more precise agricultural input optimization, with significant benefits to the farmer and the environment. In order to address this issue, this project focused on developing additively manufactured, biodegradable, soil sensors with predicted costs of < $\$$1 per unit to monitor crop inputs (such as water and fertilizer) that predictably, harmlessly degrade away into the soil when no longer needed. These sensor nodes should be easy to place, accurately and continuously monitor soil and crop conditions for an entire season, be read remotely using existing farm equipment, require no ongoing maintenance, not impede farm operations and produce no persistent waste. This approach could enable a >100× increase in information density over current solutions for precision farming of row and other crops, and lead to significant reductions in input energy use and provide increased yield for biofuel crops. Over the course of this project the team at the University of Colorado Boulder, University of California Berkeley, and Colorado State University/Kansas State University investigated a wide range of printable biodegradable electronic materials and sensor designs for determining soil moisture and soil nitrate concentration. These efforts expanded the available materials set for printed soil degradable electronic materials, particularly for conductors, enabling high conductivity and stability. Printed soil moisture and nitrate sensors with suitable sensitivity and selectivity were developed and characterized. Low power and passive wireless electronic systems were integrated with the soil sensors, and testing was carried out with completed sensors to understand their functionality under agricultural conditions. Additionally, other sensor types enabled by the biodegradable materials set created during this project, such as soil microbial activity sensors, were also developed and demonstrated. Project outputs include 10 peer reviewed publications, 4 patent applications, 21 technical presentations, 3 PhD thesis, 10 media reports, 8 additional grants worth over $\$$6M, and the formation of 3 start-up companies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mathematical Modeling of the Potential and Time Dependence of Ir Dissolution from Hydrous Ir Oxide Oxygen Evolution Catalysts

One of the main degradation mechanisms of hydrous iridium oxide acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER) catalysts is dissolution and loss into the acidic membrane. While degradation models have been proposed, there is a gap in understanding the potential and time dependence of the iridium dissolution reaction and its mechanistic underpinnings. In this work, Ir dissolution rates measured as a function of time and potential via time-resolved inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) in aqueous acidic electrolyte are used to establish a mathematical model for Ir dissolution. The mathematical model is generated using proposed formation and dissolution reactions for Ir species. Through comparison with the ICP-MS data and existing information on the potential-dependent Ir phase, we find that the potential and time-dependence of dissolution can be modeled as dissolution of an oxide phase, here represented as IrO 2 , with potential dependent kinetics and formation of a passivating species, a process with a rate-limiting step that is not potential dependent. This understanding of the potential dependence of dissolution and passivation kinetics using aqueous electrolyte half-cell measurements can be used to predict the degradation of Ir oxide in operating energy conversion devices relying on the OER, such as proton-exchange membrane water electrolyzers.

Kariuki, Nancy N. [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster Dynamics Modeling Needs for the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program

This milestone report aims to identify and assess the cluster dynamics (CD) modeling requirements within the Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program and to communicate these needs to the DOE-NE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The goal is to ensure NEAMS is well-informed about the CD modeling requirements to support AMMT's mission of accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced structural materials and manufacturing for nuclear energy applications. CD modeling is an essential tool for predicting the degradation of structural materials under irradiation, which is a key component of AMMT's accelerated qualification process. The AMMT program focuses on both additively manufactured and wrought structural alloys, such as laser powder-bed fusion 316H austenitic stainless steel, alloy 709, Haynes 244, and alloy 617. These materials require a generalized CD modeling framework to facilitate rapid model development and computational simulation. A flexible, generalized CD software, similar to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework, would enable modeling of various cluster types, including defect clusters, defect-solute clusters, and multicomponent clusters, incorporating thermodynamics and kinetics parameters. Radiation effects, microstructural feature evolution, and multi-dimensional modeling are critical considerations for the CD model. The usability of the CD code should allow for easy modification and coupling with MOOSE-based simulations. Additionally, the software should adhere to Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 standards, include a testing suite for verification and validation, and be version-controlled within a national laboratory-managed Git repository. Benchmark problems are needed to assess code predictions and performance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

NLR CSP Optical Facilities: Illuminating the Path Forward Through Innovation and Impact: Agreement 38490

This initiative is a multi-faceted project at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) aimed at strengthening its Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Optical Facilities to advance the development of low-cost, high-performance materials for solar and other applications. The project's strategy is built on three pillars: strategic stakeholder engagement, diligent facility maintenance and utilization, and the development of new research capabilities. The overarching goal is to ensure the facilities remain state-of-the-art resources for industry and academia, thereby accelerating the conversion of concentrated sunlight into energy. A key driver of the project is an international Advisory Board, which provides critical guidance on research priorities and industry needs, leading to new collaborations and secured funding. This external engagement, combined with proactive outreach to industry partners, ensures the lab's work remains aligned with real-world challenges, including materials durability and performance certification. Significant efforts in facility maintenance have addressed challenges with aging infrastructure. Notable achievements include the complete refurbishment of the hail-damaged Ultra-Accelerated Weathering System (UAWS) and the successful replacement of a failing 15-year-old Lambda 1050 spectrophotometer with a new-generation model, substantially upgrading material characterization capabilities. These maintenance activities were complemented by achieving a prestigious ISO 9001:2015 certification for the Advanced Optical Materials Labs, formally recognizing the quality and reliability of NLR's measurement capabilities. Despite these successes, challenges remain, including high demand for the High Flux Solar Furnace (HFSF) and intermittent failures of other key instruments. The project has delivered major advancements in research techniques and capabilities. At the Flatirons campus, a new indoor laboratory, was established to house advanced deflectometry and photogrammetry systems for heliostat characterization. For on-sun testing, a novel, actively cooled turning mirror was developed for the HFSF, enabling more realistic testing of particle receivers and components. A collaboration with Virginia Tech successfully demonstrated the high-temperature durability of a new solar absorber coating through extensive cyclic testing. Concurrently, new modeling took place to better predict material degradation on rough, fractal surfaces. In summary, this project has systematically enhanced NLR's CSP Optical Facilities through strategic upgrades, rigorous maintenance, and stakeholder-guided research. By overcoming equipment failures, budgetary constraints, and logistical hurdles, the project has reinforced NLR's role as a central hub for CSP innovation and materials testing. Future work will focus on securing diverse funding, expanding collaborations, and continuing to provide the critical infrastructure needed to accelerate the development and deployment of next-generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗