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At least 19 records

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mobilizing mine lands for biobased decarbonization strategies

Over 163 000 ha of mine lands in Pennsylvania (PA) have the potential to produce willow as a feedstock for renewable energy generation. Each year these lands could produce between 454 000 and 907 000 dry Mg of willow, which can be a feedstock for bioenergy (i.e., biopower) with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. We used a spatially explicit model to explore cost-minimized allocation of willow biomass from abandoned mine lands (AML) to be used for BECCS or SAF production and to abate carbon dioxide. The results suggest that between 454 000 and 907 000 dry Mg of biomass can be produced on AML in PA at costs from $94 to $250 per dry Mg. This AML willow biomass could be combined with other available biomass and aggregated to ten facilities to produce 17.9 TWh of power; alternatively, it could produce 958 million liters of jet fuel, 638 million liters of renewable diesel, and 1.289 billion liters of naphtha, along with 0.735 TWh of electricity. From this analysis, in PA, under the BECCS pathway, up to 36 million Mg per year of CO2 could be abated at costs of up to $134 per Mg; under the SAF pathway, up to 17.5 million Mg per year of CO2 could be abated at costs up to $150 per Mg of CO2. The use of mine land willow as a supplemental feedstock for SAF and BECCS would need strong incentive programs if costs of production are to be comparable with production on agricultural land.

Wahlstrom, Mallory [Pennsylvania State University]↗

Techno-Economic Models are Instrumental in Analyzing Decarbonization Strategies

This presentations provides a high-level overview of the NETL-developed techno-economic models associated with the CO2 transport and CO2 storage components of the carbon capture and storage (CCS)/carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) value chain. It also discusses the models’ capabilities through the discussion of select modeling applications (both internal and external) and highlights current model modifications and future work. It was presented at the CCUS 2023 conference, organized and presented by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), and Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) and held in Houston, Texas, April 25-27, 2023.

Guinan, Allison↗

NETL’s Techno-Economic Modeling Resources for Analyzing Decarbonization Strategies Using CCUS

NETL has developed techno-economic models to evaluate the performance characteristics and cost drivers for elements of the carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS/CCS) value chain: CO2 capture, CO2 pipeline transport, CO2 saline storage, and oil production and CO2 storage using CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). These tools can be used individually to evaluate the economic opportunity for specific CCUS components, or they can be used in tandem to assess integrated CCUS systems. An overview and high-level description of the transport and storage models is presented in a poster along with useful outputs that can be generated with each.

Morgan, David↗

Electrochemically Enhanced Carbonate Precipitation into Building Materials: A Scalable Carbon Sequestration Strategy

Decarbonization goals across hard-to-abate industries have prompted an urgent need for advanced carbon capture and storage technologies. Sequestering CO2 into carbonate minerals is a scalable method of carbon management with the ability to produce value-added carbon negative materials from waste streams for the construction industry. Waste streams rich in Ca and Mg such as nickel mine tailings, iron/steel slag, and reverse osmosis brines can store 7.6 Mt CO2/year as minerals. Additionally, CO2 mineralization in acid-neutralization processes currently present in industrial waste treatment can eliminate associated CO2 emissions of lime processing by improving process circularity. The carbonate minerals formed from these waste sources are valuable as components of carbon-negative concrete, which have the potential to sequester 1.8 billion Mt of CO2/year. Electrochemical means of CO2 mineralization improves the kinetics of the thermodynamically favorable mineralization process, lessening or eliminating the high energy requirements of traditional methods. Here, we investigate benchtop scale electrochemical CO2 mineralization of alkaline mining waste, highlighting the effects of key constituents in mining waste on the mineralization process.

carbon capture↗

Nitrogen management during decarbonization

Decarbonization is crucial to combat climate change. However, some decarbonization strategies could profoundly impact the nitrogen cycle. Here, in this Review, we explore the nitrogen requirements of five major decarbonization strategies to reveal the complex interconnections between the carbon and nitrogen cycles and identify opportunities to enhance their mutually sustainable management. Some decarbonization strategies require substantial new nitrogen production, potentially leading to increased nutrient pollution and exacerbation of eutrophication in aquatic systems. For example, the strategy of substituting 44% of fossil fuels used in marine shipping with ammonia-based fuels could reduce CO 2 emissions by up to 0.38 Gt CO 2 -eq yr -1 but would require a corresponding increase in new nitrogen synthesis of 212 Tg N yr -1 . Similarly, using biofuels to achieve 0.7 ± 0.3 Gt CO 2 -eq yr -1 mitigation would require new nitrogen inputs to croplands of 21–42 Tg N yr -1 . To avoid increasing nitrogen losses and exacerbating eutrophication, decarbonization efforts should be designed to provide carbon–nitrogen co-benefits. Reducing the use of carbon-intensive synthetic nitrogen fertilizer is one example that can simultaneously reduce both nitrogen inputs by 14 Tg N yr -1 and CO 2 emissions by 0.04 (0.03–0.06) Gt CO 2 -eq yr -1 . Future research should guide decarbonization efforts to mitigate eutrophication and enhance nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture, food and energy systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prospects of hydrogen cogeneration and carbon dioxide utilization in electrochemical refineries for ethylene production via oxidative coupling of methane: A techno-economic assessment

Ethylene is recognized as one of the most significant chemicals globally. The projected ethylene production for 2023 stands at 227.6 million tonnes, with expectations of continued demand growth. The primary use of ethylene, accounting for over 76%, lies in the production of plastics such as polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polystyrene. Despite the enduring carbon retention potential of plastics themselves, traditional ethylene feedstock production from fossil resources contributes substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, ranging from 0.29 to 2.29 kg CO2 /kg Ethylene depending on various factors like feedstock and process design. Various decarbonization strategies, including the utilization of hydrogen as a primary heat source, have been proposed to reduce the carbon footprint of ethylene production, but their efficacy remains limited, offering at best a 0–30% reduction in on-site CO 2 emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Advancing Federal Infrastructure Through Innovation

Presentation provides an overview of federal carbon reduction policy; net-zero emission building, campus, and installation design; performance targets; and decarbonization strategies.

carbon reduction policy↗

Making It Happen: On-Site Renewable Energy and Storage Challenges and Solutions for Commercial Buildings: Preprint

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Better Climate Challenge invites organizations to partner with DOE to set ambitious, portfolio-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals. To better understand the barriers to these goals and to demonstrate successful emissions reduction pathways, organizations can access working groups as one form of technical assistance from leading experts. One working group focus was the use of on-site renewable energy and storage - a key decarbonization strategy after energy efficiency. Members of the Better Climate Challenge onsite renewable energy and storage working group first identified barriers to implementing these technologies. Solutions were then brainstormed to support portfolio building owners to move from single systems to widespread implementation. Example insights include improving understandings of installation processes and location decisions, making the business case to relevant stakeholders, discussing unanticipated challenges throughout the process, and replicating these technologies across portfolios. This paper details valuable market feedback and highlights pathways to move toward widespread deployment of renewable energy and storage solutions.

building decarbonization strategies↗

Evaluating CO 2 mitigation strategies in SAF biorefineries: Techno-economic and life cycle analysis

The aviation sector requires scalable decarbonization strategies, and lignocellulosic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) represents a promising pathway. This study comparatively evaluates the techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) of three CO 2 management strategies integrated within a U.S.-based gasification–Fischer–Tropsch SAF biorefinery: (i) catalytic hydrogenation of captured CO 2 to methanol, (ii) geological CO 2 sequestration, and (iii) mineralization to sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ). Techno-economic analysis indicates that methanol synthesis requires approximately 26% higher capital investment and 33% higher operating costs than mineralization. Although methanol co-production generates the highest gross revenue, NaHCO 3 production reduces the SAF minimum selling price by approximately 38% relative to both methanol synthesis and geological sequestration pathways, reflecting a more balanced cost allocation through mineral co-product valorization. Geological sequestration lowers operating costs by nearly 50% compared with methanol synthesis but remains highly dependent on carbon credit mechanisms. LCA reveals substantial divergence in climate performance. Relative to methanol synthesis, sequestration improves net greenhouse gas performance by approximately 163%, transitioning the system from net-positive to net-negative emissions. Mineralization further enhances carbon mitigation, achieving roughly 85% greater carbon reduction than sequestration and over sixfold improvement relative to methanol synthesis within the defined system boundary. Sensitivity analysis identified hydrogen price, co-product market value, and process emissions as dominant drivers. Under baseline assumptions, CO 2 mineralization is found to offer the most balanced pathway.

Carbon capture and storage↗

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unlocking the Path to Decarbonized Building Thermal Systems: Strategies for Designers and Contractors: Preprint

The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to decarbonized thermal systems that maintain human comfort while reducing building emissions. Through the U.S. Department of Energy Better Buildings initiative's Design and Construction Allies, a cohort of leading architecture, engineering, and construction firms have identified top ranked barriers that designers and contractors face when implementing solutions for building owners. These barriers to decarbonizing thermal - especially heating - systems include equipment availability; electrical capacity constraints; space allocations; complex system configurations; and lack of experience in designing, installing, and maintaining heat pumps. These impediments significantly amplify the risk and financial burden associated with the adoption of decarbonized solutions. The barriers also decrease the likelihood that designers, contractors, and owners will adopt decarbonization strategies without clear plans and guidance on how to implement these solutions, mitigate risk, and overcome the identified barriers. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Design and Construction Allies, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers have developed "how to" thermal decarbonization guidance based on best practices. The subjects covered range from the role of energy efficiency in facilitating decarbonized heating solutions to strategies for decarbonizing new and existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems. The focus is on overcoming barriers so that energy-efficient, electrified buildings - both new and retrofit - become the industry standard. This paper outlines 1) the method used to collect and organize this guidance, 2) industry barriers to decarbonization, and 3) decarbonization techniques that have broad market applicability.

building heating↗

Innovative Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: Subnational Strategies for Distributed Solar Deployment to Improve Grid Quality and Reduce Energy Costs in Argentina

Through Net Zero World, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the National Energy Secretariat of Argentina, La Pampa's Energy and Mining Secretariat, Pampetrol, and the Administracion Provincial de Energia de La Pampa (APELP) conducted an integrated analysis of the power system of the La Pampa province in Argentina. The study assessed the impact that solar and battery energy storage systems could have on the region grid's reliability and electricity costs, providing insights into long-term decarbonization strategies across Argentina. The analysis demonstrated that these systems are expected not only to help with decarbonization efforts but also to bolster grid resiliency, reduce line losses, and improve voltage regulation while lowering electricity costs. The paper offers a replicable framework for similar studies across other Argentine provinces, which could inform a national grid reliability plan and promote regional coordination. Such coordination will play a key role in supporting a nationwide clean energy transition as Argentina increases its share of renewable energy. By coordinating subnational energy plans with national strategies, Argentina can secure a resilient clean energy future, leveraging the substantial renewable resources available across its provinces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ISO 50001-Based Energy Management Systems as a Practical Path for Decarbonization: Initial Findings from a Survey of Technical Assistance Cohort Participants

Organizations face rising pressure to take action to reduce their climate-affecting emissions (i.e., decarbonize). While many responses are possible, an essential approach—strategically managing their energy consumption as an essential business practice via an ISO 50001-based energy management system—is not yet widely recognized as a framework for decarbonization. This study analyzes interim survey results from 24 organizations (a 48% response rate) implementing a rigorous energy management system, one deployed by the U.S. Department of Energy as “50001 Ready”, to test whether participating organizations perceive the energy management system under development as an essential aspect of their decarbonization efforts. The results are preliminary in nature, given the ongoing nature of the program and associated data collection; however, they are sufficient to refute our hypothesis that energy management systems are perceived by organizations participating in 50001 Ready cohorts to primarily affect energy performance with little-to-no connection regarding decarbonization efforts. Major findings include that participants’ decarbonization targets and commitments are driven by market imperatives (highlighting the importance of ISO 50001 as a management system tool) and that they see energy efficiency as vital to decarbonizing. We conclude by suggesting future research directions to further establish the premise that energy management systems are an effective, efficient, and long-lasting decarbonization strategy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A deep decarbonization framework for the United States economy – a sector, sub-sector, and end-use based approach

Achieving the United States' target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require technological transformations and energy sector mitigation. To understand the role of dynamically evolving technologies, identify synergies and dissonance and the effect of allocating limited low-carbon biomass resources in decarbonizing the U.S. economy, we developed the Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model. A Life Cycle Assessment based approach is implemented considering the U.S. economy as the functional unit, to estimate greenhouse gas mitigation potential for projected energy demand based on several sector-level and cross-sectoral decarbonization pathways. Direct and supply-chain emissions are accounted, resulting from changes in patterns of energy generation and consumption, technology breakthroughs, and reductions in fugitive emissions over time at the granularity of economic sectors, sub-sectors, and end-use. Decarbonization strategies are implemented over a reference case developed using Energy Information Administration (EIA AEO) projection of economic activities for 2020–2050. Based on the considered scenarios, 80–90% economy-wide decarbonization relative to the 2020 reference case is projected. Electrification, low-carbon fuels, and reduction of fugitive emissions play the most significant role to decarbonization. The majority of the remaining emissions are accounted to the supply-chain and end-use emissions from natural gas and diesel fossil-based fuels in heavy duty transportation and heavy industries, highlighting the need for developing low-carbon and carbon-negative alternatives to mitigate those fossil-based carbon emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Into the Grid: Key Issues

To foster sustainable, low-emission development, many countries are establishing ambitious renewable energy targets for their electricity supply. The variability of solar and wind compared to traditional sources, coupled with growing demand for electricity, requires changes to power system planning and operations to meet these targets. Grid integration is the practice of developing efficient ways to deliver variable renewable energy (VRE), primarily wind and solar, to the grid. Good integration methods maximize the cost-effectiveness of incorporating VRE while maintaining or increasing system stability and reliability. To inform decarbonization strategies, policymakers, regulators, and system operators consider a variety of costs and opportunities associated with VRE integration, which can be organized into five topics: New renewable energy generation and transmission; Power system reliability; Transmission and distribution coordination; Cross-sectoral decarbonization opportunities; Energy equity and justice.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Refinery Perspective on Decarbonizing with Marine Biofuels

This work seeks to understand what biofuel production pathways a refinery might prefer to produce very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) for marine applications. A comprehensive refinery optimization model was modified to allow for (1) direct blending of soy biodiesel, renewable diesel, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and several pyrolysis oils and (2) indirect blending of all pyrolysis oils via co-processing in a fluidized catalytic cracker (FCC) and diesel hydrotreater into the marine fuel pool. Results showed that preferred pathways to bio-VLSFO production included co-processing low-quality pyrolysis oil in a FCC to blend the resulting biogenic light cycle oil, directly blending soy biodiesel, and directly blending small quantities of pyrolysis oil. Bio-VLSFO production costs were compared to those of fossil VLSFO subject to different marine fuel demands, benchmark crude oil prices, and biogenic fractions in the finished product. Given benchmark crude oil prices over 60 $/bbl, bio-VLSFO production appeared to be significantly cheaper than fossil VLSFO. Corresponding marginal abatement costs of CO 2 mostly ranging from -300 to 350 $/ton of CO 2 were also determined using a simplified but novel approach to allow for a comparison to other decarbonization strategies. In conclusion, this work indicates that low-sulfur contents in biofuels, relatively relaxed specifications for marine fuels, and current difficulties in meeting VLSFO specifications with crude oils can combine to make bio-VLSFO production cost-effective. Moreover, marine fuels appear to be a good entry point for refiners to start decarbonizing with biofuel pathways that could eventually be extended to other product pools.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗